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06-11-2011, 05:54   #1
darkman2
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Colder weather 16th Nov ----->

After a brief flirt with much milder weather increasingly the signs are that not only will it not last but that a shock is on the way immediately following. If we can lose the Euro high fairly swiftly and gain from a pressure rise to the North then very cold air from Scandinavia (much like last year) is likely. We need low pressure to have easy passage to the South. And we need the Jet Stream to aid a pressure rise to the North which in turn will lower heights and pressure to the South. Latest model runs suggest a real possibility of that happening. Watch this space (and date)





Exciting times ahead - warm then freezing potentially.

Last edited by darkman2; 06-11-2011 at 06:42.
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06-11-2011, 11:24   #2
leahyl
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After a brief flirt with much milder weather increasingly the signs are that not only will it not last but that a shock is on the way immediately following. If we can lose the Euro high fairly swiftly and gain from a pressure rise to the North then very cold air from Scandinavia (much like last year) is likely. We need low pressure to have easy passage to the South. And we need the Jet Stream to aid a pressure rise to the North which in turn will lower heights and pressure to the South. Latest model runs suggest a real possibility of that happening. Watch this space (and date);


Exciting times ahead - warm then freezing potentially.
Thanks Darkman2! It's starting to get really exciting now! Like last year! :-D
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06-11-2011, 12:03   #3
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I wonder If I should post this to IWO ???.... Very tempted indeed!!! .... Mark might dislike the idea though hehe ..

Excitementness!!
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06-11-2011, 12:26   #4
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Sorry Darkman but the GEM is the only one showing that strong a set up. Maybe the others will come into line yet who knows.
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06-11-2011, 13:02   #5
 
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Sorry Darkman but the GEM is the only one showing that strong a set up. Maybe the others will come into line yet who knows.
Fully agree, its 10 days away, we had freezing easterlys 10 days away in the models for about 2 months last january and february. Even more premature than the other thread!
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06-11-2011, 16:38   #6
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The difference between the 06z and the 12z quite interesting. Here on the 13th, the 12z tries to link up the Scandi/Euro high with Greenland. Tentative signs of this pattern change perhaps?

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06-11-2011, 16:48   #7
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12z very different to the 6z in FIsland.

Only early days yet.
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06-11-2011, 16:49   #8
 
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Unusual to see such a big difference before 192h, still very bland and boring charts even into deep FI though. Looks like the high is sticking around for another week and there's no strong signs of a big pattern change once it does go. GEM and to an extent UKMO are the only models going for anything remotely interesting

Still, cant say I'm complaining after the disastrous October we had around here, mild, sunny and dry will do nicely for another week. My prediction of a very dry November is looking good so far
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06-11-2011, 17:04   #9
darkman2
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My prediction of a very dry November is looking good so far

Yes, 100% right. Nice prediction. Also good you brought that up because this is not the average November setup. Normal conditions this time of year are the raging westerly winds and rain.

Latest UK Met Office charts show again it's going to be very mild for a time but it's events both up and downstream that are most interesting for us. Notably the signs of pressure rising to the North. This chart has change written all over it. Just the high pressure over Europe we need out of the way.


Last edited by darkman2; 06-11-2011 at 17:14.
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06-11-2011, 20:34   #10
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Right, so does that latter chart mean Hot Snow????
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06-11-2011, 20:58   #11
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Right, so does that latter chart mean Hot Snow????


it means the potential is there for the weather to turn colder if the euro high moves towards scandinavia, or one builds up there after the euro high disappears, as it will help to push the jet stream southwards and allow colder air to flow down to us. the ideal scenario at some point during this winter would be an omega block from a scandi high and a greenland high, but sadly Carlsberg don't do a perfect winter weather synoptic.
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06-11-2011, 21:01   #12
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It means...exactly what Nacho says. Well put. So the ads were wrong then about Carlsberg doing a perfect winter weather synoptic









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06-11-2011, 21:19   #13
 
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The warm weather thread gets 1 thank. The cold (and less likely!) weather thread gets 21 . . . we all know where this forums loyalties lie!
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06-11-2011, 21:23   #14
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its been freezn all year so it would be a shame to ruin it now so roll on icebergs the size of new york city!
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06-11-2011, 21:30   #15
 
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its been freezn all year so it would be a shame to ruin it now so roll on icebergs the size of new york city!
Temps in every month except January, June and august have been above average, with February, April and October well above average.
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