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05-11-2011, 19:38   #1
darkman2
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Gearing up for record breaking warmth from the 11th Nov ---->

As the pattern toward potentially much colder weather for the end of the month evolves over the next couple of weeks the grudging refusal of the Euro High pressure over the continent to take a hike means Summer may well not be finished just yet. The trend is toward the Atlantic troughs getting stuck and meandering around to our west not up to that much bringing very warm air up from the South. It's all part of the process of change toward a situation where we can see the much colder stuff sniping at us from the North. Ironically it means a temporary return for Summer. Really warm for the time of year. Record breaking stuff here potentially. If this came off as forecast on the ECM I would not rule out temperatures breaking 20c. If it turns out anything like this. The flip side is it allows a plunge of super cold air into the Eastern side of the continent. Thankfully Ireland will have played Estonia before then


Anyways get those bbq's ready!





Last edited by darkman2; 05-11-2011 at 19:46.
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05-11-2011, 19:46   #2
Caitriona
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*dislike*
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05-11-2011, 19:48   #3
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*dislike*

You dislike warm weather?
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05-11-2011, 19:55   #4
Caitriona
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In November, yes. In November I like frost and cold crisp mornings and steely blue skies. Or even pissing rain, really. Just not warmth, that doesn't feel right when I'm doing my Christmas shopping.

Plus I'm pregnant and the size of a whale which makes heat somewhat uncomfortable.
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05-11-2011, 20:00   #5
 
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Note to self: don't disagree with a pregnant woman! My wife went through it twice, second time with twins. Been that soldier and all that.

Re the warm weather. I'm not too happy about it either. Just blew a wad of cash on winter tyres for two cars AND......three sleds for the kids!!
If i don't get snow this winter there will be hell to pay!!
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05-11-2011, 20:07   #6
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Summer may well not be finished just yet.
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05-11-2011, 20:09   #7
darkman2
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Should have put the words "potentially" and "temporary" in the thread title. It's only temporary if it occurs. And since every action has an equal and opposite reaction...it may be a blessing in disguise.
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05-11-2011, 20:16   #8
Lucreto
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20c in November. I hate the thought of it.

Its 4.4c now and I an just back from a walk. I love this cold weather and I can't imagine it being that warm so I hope this chart it wrong

If it does get this hot I hope the temperatures drop like a stone after it. The last thing I want is winter stock coming back because of the lack of snow. Last year we were selling ski suits. They came in 12th December and sold 50 of them. In January 29 were returned when the weather improved. I don't want that to happen again.
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05-11-2011, 20:35   #9
 
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The GFS doesn't agree with this setup at all. Todays 12z is giving max 850's of 6C, and mostly 4C.



Coupled with the fact that this is way in FI still (even if it was a cold blast there'd be a lot of criticism about a thread for 9 days in the future!) this thread does seem a little premature!

2m temps for Monday 14th GFS of 12-14C:




The only other models going out as far as sunday 13th (JMA and NOGAPS) aren't going with this either.
Attached Images
File Type: png Monday 15th.png (31.3 KB, 3090 views)
File Type: png 2m temps.png (34.3 KB, 3091 views)

Last edited by thetonynator; 05-11-2011 at 20:39.
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05-11-2011, 20:50   #10
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Yay, the bumpy whale is happy again : )
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05-11-2011, 20:51   #11
 
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Yay, the bumpy whale is happy again : )
What I'm saying is, it might happen, but it's certainly nowhere near set in stone.
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05-11-2011, 21:27   #12
darkman2
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IMO (and I could be wrong) a much milder period is inevitable. There is general agreement on the Atlantic trough becoming almost static as it slowly sinks south and unwinds. The Euro high is persistent.


GEM (from MT's neck of the woods) agrees pretty much with a mild outcome. But again it is only temporary.



Some interesting signs toward the later stages of the ECM run give much greater hope for the last 1/3 of the November and early December for cold and ice in terms of height and pressure rises to the north.

Watch the cold plunges into Eastern Europe. That could be useful later in the month.

Last edited by darkman2; 05-11-2011 at 21:30.
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05-11-2011, 21:43   #13
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I'd like a bit of warmth as it will be cold for long enough.
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05-11-2011, 22:00   #14
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I'd like a bit of warmth as it will be cold for long enough.
Try the Canaries
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05-11-2011, 22:02   #15
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Try the Canaries
id stay the hell away from the Canaries right now
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