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Gearing up for record breaking warmth from the 11th Nov ---->

  • 05-11-2011 7:38pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    As the pattern toward potentially much colder weather for the end of the month evolves over the next couple of weeks the grudging refusal of the Euro High pressure over the continent to take a hike means Summer may well not be finished just yet. The trend is toward the Atlantic troughs getting stuck and meandering around to our west not up to that much bringing very warm air up from the South. It's all part of the process of change toward a situation where we can see the much colder stuff sniping at us from the North. Ironically it means a temporary return for Summer. Really warm for the time of year. Record breaking stuff here potentially. If this came off as forecast on the ECM I would not rule out temperatures breaking 20c. If it turns out anything like this. The flip side is it allows a plunge of super cold air into the Eastern side of the continent. Thankfully Ireland will have played Estonia before then;)


    Anyways get those bbq's ready!

    Recm2161.gif


    Recm2162.gif


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 101 ✭✭Caitriona


    *dislike*


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,267 ✭✭✭ Alvin Flat Blood


    Caitriona wrote: »
    *dislike*


    You dislike warm weather?


  • Registered Users Posts: 101 ✭✭Caitriona


    In November, yes. In November I like frost and cold crisp mornings and steely blue skies. Or even pissing rain, really. Just not warmth, that doesn't feel right when I'm doing my Christmas shopping.

    Plus I'm pregnant and the size of a whale which makes heat somewhat uncomfortable.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,029 ✭✭✭shedweller


    Note to self: don't disagree with a pregnant woman!:) My wife went through it twice, second time with twins. Been that soldier and all that.

    Re the warm weather. I'm not too happy about it either. Just blew a wad of cash on winter tyres for two cars AND......three sleds for the kids!!
    If i don't get snow this winter there will be hell to pay!!:pac::(


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Summer may well not be finished just yet.

    0208_46d7.gif


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Should have put the words "potentially" and "temporary" in the thread title. It's only temporary if it occurs. And since every action has an equal and opposite reaction...it may be a blessing in disguise. :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    20c in November. I hate the thought of it.

    Its 4.4c now and I an just back from a walk. I love this cold weather and I can't imagine it being that warm so I hope this chart it wrong

    If it does get this hot I hope the temperatures drop like a stone after it. The last thing I want is winter stock coming back because of the lack of snow. Last year we were selling ski suits. They came in 12th December and sold 50 of them. In January 29 were returned when the weather improved. I don't want that to happen again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    The GFS doesn't agree with this setup at all. Todays 12z is giving max 850's of 6C, and mostly 4C.

    180335.png

    Coupled with the fact that this is way in FI still (even if it was a cold blast there'd be a lot of criticism about a thread for 9 days in the future!) this thread does seem a little premature!

    2m temps for Monday 14th GFS of 12-14C:

    180336.png


    The only other models going out as far as sunday 13th (JMA and NOGAPS) aren't going with this either.


  • Registered Users Posts: 101 ✭✭Caitriona


    Yay, the bumpy whale is happy again : )


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Caitriona wrote: »
    Yay, the bumpy whale is happy again : )

    What I'm saying is, it might happen, but it's certainly nowhere near set in stone.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    IMO (and I could be wrong) a much milder period is inevitable. There is general agreement on the Atlantic trough becoming almost static as it slowly sinks south and unwinds. The Euro high is persistent.


    GEM (from MT's neck of the woods) agrees pretty much with a mild outcome. But again it is only temporary.

    gemnh-0-228.png?00

    Some interesting signs toward the later stages of the ECM run give much greater hope for the last 1/3 of the November and early December for cold and ice in terms of height and pressure rises to the north.

    Watch the cold plunges into Eastern Europe. That could be useful later in the month. ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    I'd like a bit of warmth as it will be cold for long enough.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Min wrote: »
    I'd like a bit of warmth as it will be cold for long enough.

    Try the Canaries:)


  • Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Joe Public wrote: »
    Try the Canaries:)

    id stay the hell away from the Canaries right now :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    darkman2 wrote: »
    IMO (and I could be wrong) a much milder period is inevitable. There is general agreement on the Atlantic trough becoming almost static as it slowly sinks south and unwinds. The Euro high is persistent.
    The dreaded euro high aka Bartlett high! This winter still gives me nightmares.Rrea00119980214.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Jubbly! :)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    On track for unusual warmth in November although it could yet be the unsettled type i.e wet.

    Rukm1441.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭psychward


    I just bought ice grips for my shoes in Penneys and demand for it to snow so I can ridicule people who slip in a smirking I told you so kind of way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,572 ✭✭✭lord lucan


    Bring it on!:)













    ******Runs off to buy some Hawaiian Tropic*********


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,315 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    i just put away my summer clothes and bought ice grips for my shoes. so warm weather feck off. where were you during the summer?


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Time this thread mentioned snow innit!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    GFS still not playing ball, max 850's now 4 degrees. Plenty of time for change yet though!


    180388.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,765 ✭✭✭Diddler1977


    I have just bought an electric blanket, snow grips in Penneys, Snow Boots and a halogen heater.

    I need snow!!!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    why do people go and buy winter stuff on the back of two bad winters,theres no guarentee we will get another in the next 20 years? remember how long we went with wet and mild winters before we got the two really bad winters....... ha ha makes me laugh


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,339 ✭✭✭El Horseboxo


    I bought nothing in pennys. Come on sunshine. If you want cold weather **** off to Russia.


  • Registered Users Posts: 522 ✭✭✭Conor30


    Lucreto wrote: »
    20c in November. I hate the thought of it.

    Its 4.4c now and I an just back from a walk. I love this cold weather and I can't imagine it being that warm so I hope this chart it wrong

    If it does get this hot I hope the temperatures drop like a stone after it. The last thing I want is winter stock coming back because of the lack of snow. Last year we were selling ski suits. They came in 12th December and sold 50 of them. In January 29 were returned when the weather improved. I don't want that to happen again.

    Had they even worn the ski suits? If they had, you didn't have to accept them back, did you?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,912 ✭✭✭HellFireClub


    I smell graupel!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Jake1 wrote: »
    id stay the hell away from the Canaries right now :)

    :confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    howlinwolf wrote: »
    why do people go and buy winter stuff on the back of two bad winters,theres no guarentee we will get another in the next 20 years? remember how long we went with wet and mild winters before we got the two really bad winters....... ha ha makes me laugh

    Same reason as people buy umbrellas, once bitten twice shy.

    Maybe the govt should put a high tax on snow shovels, winter tyres, snow shoes and all the panic buying stuff. Then if we really get bad snow they can reduce the tax back to normal.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I think perhaps people have overamped what temperatures could be reached next week.

    I would say widely 11-14c with one or two spots hitting 16c. Very mild for November but we are not going to hit 20c.


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