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02-11-2011, 19:31   #1
tylercollins
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Potential Severe thunderstorm Thursday November 3rd

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING #059
ISSUED: 1530UTC WEDNESDAY 2ND NOVEMBER 2011

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:
NORTHERN IRELAND
SOUTHWEST SCOTLAND
NORTHWEST ENGLAND
WALES
MIDLANDS
SOUTHWEST ENGLAND
SOUTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 0000UTC UNTIL 2300UTC THURSDAY 3RD NOVEMBER 2011

UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ENHANCING CONVECTION

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:
HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...STRONG GUSTS...FUNNELS...TORNADOES...FLASH FLOODING...LIGHTNING

DISCUSSION:
THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS OF A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT TRANSITS THE UK OVERNIGHT SLOWING OVER EASTERN ENGLAND, BEHIND WHICH 500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -25C WILL ENCOURAGE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MOSTLY INITIATING OVER SURROUNDING SEAS AND ADVECTING INLAND. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR IS ADVECTED UNDER A DEEP WIND PROFILE, WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVING AND RESULTANT CONVERGENT ZONES THROUGH THE IRISH SEA, IN LEE OF COASTS, PENINSULAS AND HIGH GROUND, AND THROUGH CENTRAL ENGLAND. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HEIGHT, WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN IRELAND. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANISED CONVECTION, WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FUNNELS, TORNADOES UP TO T2 AND STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTING. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS UP TO 2.5CM SO CORES MAY BE HEAVY WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR TRAINS OF STORMS. HAIL IS ALSO A CONCERN. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED.

Last edited by tylercollins; 02-11-2011 at 23:07.
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02-11-2011, 19:48   #2
Iancar29
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How come ME have nothing on this?
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02-11-2011, 19:49   #3
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You don't have Martin "Funnel" McKenna as a friend that why haha

Does look promising tomorrow anyway for possible activity. Pity I'm god damn working
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02-11-2011, 19:55   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tylercollins View Post
You don't have Martin "Funnel" McKenna as a friend that why haha

Does look promising tomorrow anyway for possible activity. Pity I'm god damn working
Hahaha!... Well if theres any word from MT or MÉ later then i might ask my mate to go on a ROAD trip so! ha


I really dunno where this "high" threat is coming from though for us , the instability is there yes but how is it gonna be fed?... it looks like it will be short lived storms .

Will wait for tonights models to come out around 9 to have another looksy.... going to walk le dog now.
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02-11-2011, 19:56   #5
 
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http://met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp
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02-11-2011, 20:01   #6
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UKMO has the same warning but MUCH more chillaxed and less extensive, see.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...ngs.html?day=1

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02-11-2011, 21:20   #7
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I rather the oul Estofex forecast very much
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 03 Nov 2011 06:00 to Fri 04 Nov 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 02 Nov 2011 21:08
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for the British Isles and northern France mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for southern France and the west Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain.

A level 1 was issued for western and southern Iberia and surroundings mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

The deep Atlantic long-wave trough will slowly enter Iberia during the period. A strong south to south-westerly flow will affect the British Isles, France, the western Mediterranean, and Iberia. The cold front will become mostly parallel to the jet and will be present from the western North Sea to France and the west Mediterranean at Friday morning. Rich low-level moisture is already present along the cold front and will even increase over the west Mediterranean given a moist south-easterly flow and strong low-level convergence. QG lift is likely from the British Isles to the west Mediterranean ahead of the eastward moving trough. This lift is expected to lead to increasing lapse rates that will overlap with the moisture.

DISCUSSION

British Isles, northern France

A tongue of very moist low-level air mass has spread into the British Isles and France and latest observations indicate surface dew points of 14°C. While the cold front crosses the Iberian Peninsula during the day, a frontal wave will be associated with backing surface winds from northern France to the British Isles in the afternoon and evening hours, associated with continuous moisture advection. Lift can be expected through-out the period given the approaching trough and mid-level jet streak as well as the frontal wave associated with warm air masses at low levels spreading northward. As a consequence, steepening lapse rates are forecast and CAPE becomes likely.

The overlap of the rich low-level moisture with strong low-level vertical wind shear (12 m/s 0-1km bulk shear) is clearly indicated by latest models. Main uncertainty will be the lapse rates and the chance of surfaced-based instability as well as the lift that may be rather weak. Current thinking is that showers and thunderstorms will develop rather isolated and will rapidly move northward. Some of these storms are expected to develop into supercells capable of producing large hail, tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. The convective activity will likely last until the night hours.

Last edited by Iancar29; 02-11-2011 at 21:26.
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02-11-2011, 21:56   #8
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UKASF have just issued there forecast for tomorrow and friday..

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/139

They are going for sever in the south west of England and slight chance in Ireland.
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02-11-2011, 22:09   #9
Iancar29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tylercollins View Post
UKASF have just issued there forecast for tomorrow and friday..

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/139

They are going for sever in the south west of England and slight chance in Ireland.

Awh no i hope this is not storms the seem to start only in the Irish sea and move East!

Hopefully now Met E. will have an updated forcast b4 the midnight staff take over.
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02-11-2011, 22:14   #10
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the fun could be over before it even begins for us!

In saying that, I'm not going to see much as I'm working till 5pm from 8am
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02-11-2011, 22:22   #11
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the fun could be over before it even begins for us!

In saying that, I'm not going to see much as I'm working till 5pm from 8am

Fingers Crossed so....

Ah sorry to hear that man... theres nothing worse! , like i was even thinking about asking for extra hours in work over the christmas then i was like... but ... what if the snow arrives again.... i cant be missing that! ha
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02-11-2011, 22:33   #12
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As is the case with most of these setups nearly all the ingredients are there for a severe storm.
CAPE nearing 1000 j/kg and a lifted index of -2 or -3 so a nice buoyant airmass.
Lapse rates are excellent
Deep Layer shear is from 12-16 m/s Excellent for storm longevity as updraughts will seperate from the downdraughts.
Lower Layer shear is effin super 10-15 m/s so funnel development is favourable.
The one big massive letdown is a saturated atmosphere as humidity levels are very high through the 700hpa 500hpa and 300hpa with no real dry air intrusion.
Looks like a very Capped environment with the humidity creating an inversion but something could brew up and break through.
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02-11-2011, 22:51   #13
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Torro have just issued a tornado watch as well for south western england the east coast of ireland and northern ireland.

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php
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02-11-2011, 22:53   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sponge Bob View Post
UKMO has the same warning but MUCH more chillaxed and less extensive, see.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...ngs.html?day=1

They've updated there warning now with

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02-11-2011, 23:29   #15
 
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Is this serious? We might actually get tornados???
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