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Potential Severe thunderstorm Thursday November 3rd

  • 02-11-2011 7:31pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING #059
    ISSUED: 1530UTC WEDNESDAY 2ND NOVEMBER 2011

    SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:
    NORTHERN IRELAND
    SOUTHWEST SCOTLAND
    NORTHWEST ENGLAND
    WALES
    MIDLANDS
    SOUTHWEST ENGLAND
    SOUTHERN ENGLAND

    IN EFFECT FROM 0000UTC UNTIL 2300UTC THURSDAY 3RD NOVEMBER 2011

    UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ENHANCING CONVECTION

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:
    HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...STRONG GUSTS...FUNNELS...TORNADOES...FLASH FLOODING...LIGHTNING

    DISCUSSION:
    THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS OF A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT TRANSITS THE UK OVERNIGHT SLOWING OVER EASTERN ENGLAND, BEHIND WHICH 500MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -25C WILL ENCOURAGE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MOSTLY INITIATING OVER SURROUNDING SEAS AND ADVECTING INLAND. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR IS ADVECTED UNDER A DEEP WIND PROFILE, WITH POSSIBLE SHORTWAVING AND RESULTANT CONVERGENT ZONES THROUGH THE IRISH SEA, IN LEE OF COASTS, PENINSULAS AND HIGH GROUND, AND THROUGH CENTRAL ENGLAND. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HEIGHT, WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN IRELAND. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANISED CONVECTION, WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FUNNELS, TORNADOES UP TO T2 AND STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTING. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS UP TO 2.5CM SO CORES MAY BE HEAVY WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR TRAINS OF STORMS. HAIL IS ALSO A CONCERN. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    * Hands Award for longest thread name in History! * :)


    How come ME have nothing on this?


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    You don't have Martin "Funnel" McKenna as a friend :P that why haha

    Does look promising tomorrow anyway for possible activity. Pity I'm god damn working :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    You don't have Martin "Funnel" McKenna as a friend :P that why haha

    Does look promising tomorrow anyway for possible activity. Pity I'm god damn working :(

    Hahaha!... Well if theres any word from MT or MÉ later then i might ask my mate to go on a ROAD trip so! ha


    I really dunno where this "high" threat is coming from though for us , the instability is there yes but how is it gonna be fed?... it looks like it will be short lived storms .

    Will wait for tonights models to come out around 9 to have another looksy.... going to walk le dog now. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 225 ✭✭vonbarracuda




  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    UKMO has the same warning but MUCH more chillaxed and less extensive, see.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

    2011-11-3


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2011110406_201111022108_1_stormforecast.xml

    I rather the oul Estofex forecast very much :)
    Storm Forecast
    Valid: Thu 03 Nov 2011 06:00 to Fri 04 Nov 2011 06:00 UTC
    Issued: Wed 02 Nov 2011 21:08
    Forecaster: GATZEN

    A level 1 was issued for the British Isles and northern France mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.

    A level 1 was issued for southern France and the west Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain.

    A level 1 was issued for western and southern Iberia and surroundings mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

    SYNOPSIS

    The deep Atlantic long-wave trough will slowly enter Iberia during the period. A strong south to south-westerly flow will affect the British Isles, France, the western Mediterranean, and Iberia. The cold front will become mostly parallel to the jet and will be present from the western North Sea to France and the west Mediterranean at Friday morning. Rich low-level moisture is already present along the cold front and will even increase over the west Mediterranean given a moist south-easterly flow and strong low-level convergence. QG lift is likely from the British Isles to the west Mediterranean ahead of the eastward moving trough. This lift is expected to lead to increasing lapse rates that will overlap with the moisture.

    DISCUSSION

    British Isles, northern France

    A tongue of very moist low-level air mass has spread into the British Isles and France and latest observations indicate surface dew points of 14°C. While the cold front crosses the Iberian Peninsula during the day, a frontal wave will be associated with backing surface winds from northern France to the British Isles in the afternoon and evening hours, associated with continuous moisture advection. Lift can be expected through-out the period given the approaching trough and mid-level jet streak as well as the frontal wave associated with warm air masses at low levels spreading northward. As a consequence, steepening lapse rates are forecast and CAPE becomes likely.

    The overlap of the rich low-level moisture with strong low-level vertical wind shear (12 m/s 0-1km bulk shear) is clearly indicated by latest models. Main uncertainty will be the lapse rates and the chance of surfaced-based instability as well as the lift that may be rather weak. Current thinking is that showers and thunderstorms will develop rather isolated and will rapidly move northward. Some of these storms are expected to develop into supercells capable of producing large hail, tornadoes, and severe wind gusts. The convective activity will likely last until the night hours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    UKASF have just issued there forecast for tomorrow and friday..

    http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/139

    They are going for sever in the south west of England and slight chance in Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    UKASF have just issued there forecast for tomorrow and friday..

    http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/139

    They are going for sever in the south west of England and slight chance in Ireland.


    Awh no i hope this is not storms the seem to start only in the Irish sea and move East! :(

    Hopefully now Met E. will have an updated forcast b4 the midnight staff take over.


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    the fun could be over before it even begins for us!

    In saying that, I'm not going to see much as I'm working till 5pm from 8am :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    the fun could be over before it even begins for us!

    In saying that, I'm not going to see much as I'm working till 5pm from 8am :(


    Fingers Crossed so....

    Ah sorry to hear that man... theres nothing worse! , like i was even thinking about asking for extra hours in work over the christmas then i was like... but ... what if the snow arrives again.... i cant be missing that! ha :rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 203 ✭✭Tornando9


    As is the case with most of these setups nearly all the ingredients are there for a severe storm.
    CAPE nearing 1000 j/kg and a lifted index of -2 or -3 so a nice buoyant airmass.
    Lapse rates are excellent
    Deep Layer shear is from 12-16 m/s Excellent for storm longevity as updraughts will seperate from the downdraughts.
    Lower Layer shear is effin super 10-15 m/s so funnel development is favourable.
    The one big massive letdown is a saturated atmosphere as humidity levels are very high through the 700hpa 500hpa and 300hpa with no real dry air intrusion.
    Looks like a very Capped environment with the humidity creating an inversion but something could brew up and break through.


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Torro have just issued a tornado watch as well for south western england the east coast of ireland and northern ireland.

    http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    UKMO has the same warning but MUCH more chillaxed and less extensive, see.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

    2011-11-3

    They've updated there warning now with

    2011-11-3


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭whiteandlight


    Is this serious? We might actually get tornados???


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,124 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Flying from
    Dublin tomorrow :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Yes, this is serious. High chance of something happening tomorrow. It's not going to be anything like you see on Storm Chasers or anything in the Great Plains, but something may happen.

    P.S. We get more tornadoes here in the UK than America does lol


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭whiteandlight


    Yes, this is serious. High chance of something happening tomorrow. It's not going to be anything like you see on Storm Chasers or anything in the Great Plains, but something may happen.

    P.S. We get more tornadoes here in the UK than America does lol

    Seriously? That seems strange


  • Registered Users Posts: 203 ✭✭Tornando9


    Is this serious? We might actually get tornados???

    Lots of things need to come together for a tornado to form but most of the parameters are there.
    Just need a trigger for the convection now. There will be little or no insolation or diurnal heating as it'll be a cloudy day.
    The trigger could come in the form of an upper trough which will create the lift required.
    From experience setups like this usually fail to deliver here but pep up for the south and southwest of the UK.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    OOPs they have and all. I'll get the washing out on the line tonight so. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 203 ✭✭Tornando9


    Yes, this is serious. High chance of something happening tomorrow.

    P.S. We get more tornadoes here in the UK than America does lol

    This is not a serious situation i'm afraid and there is little chance of something happening.

    We get on average about 9 or 10 tornadoes a year. Most are small and in the middle of nowhere.

    In the USA they can have outbreaks of tornadoes that produce 100+ twisters in one day.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭whiteandlight


    Tornando9 wrote: »
    Lots of things need to come together for a tornado to form but most of the parameters are there.
    Just need a trigger for the convection now. There will be little or no insolation or diurnal heating as it'll be a cloudy day.
    The trigger could come in the form of an upper trough which will create the lift required.
    From experience setups like this usually fail to deliver here but pep up for the south and southwest of the UK.

    Bear with me, I learnt a lot this year but not about tornados! What is insulation and diurnal heating?


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Tornando9 wrote: »
    This is not a serious situation i'm afraid and there is little chance of something happening.

    We get on average about 9 or 10 tornadoes a year. Most are small and in the middle of nowhere.

    In the USA they can have outbreaks of tornadoes that produce 100+ twisters in one day.

    I think he was asking was this serious thread rather than a serious tornado outbreak.

    And I should have explained that we get more tornadoes per square mile.

    But here's to hoping for something to happen tomorrow because I can't get to America :P


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Tornando9 wrote: »
    Just need a trigger for the convection now. There will be little or no insolation or diurnal heating as it'll be a cloudy day.
    The trigger could come in the form of an upper trough which will create the lift required.

    Hang on a sec does that not mean LOTS OF SNOW AND EPIC BLIZZARDS IN DUBLIN AND WICKLOW as the unusual lift condition cools the moisture at high altitude?

    Just askin like. :p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,359 ✭✭✭whiteandlight


    I'm a she and yes I literally meant was this a joke! Assuming we don't get tornados is it just wet n windy we're looking at?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Hang on a sec does that not mean LOTS OF SNOW AND EPIC BLIZZARDS IN DUBLIN AND WICKLOW as the unusual lift condition cools the moisture at high altitude?

    Just askin like. :p

    ahhh . . . . yeah :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 203 ✭✭Tornando9


    Bear with me, I learnt a lot this year but not about tornados! What is insulation and diurnal heating?

    This is when the sun heats the ground and the warm air rises. Warm air contains moisture so it condenses as it rises creating the lovely bubbly clouds or convection. If the convection is strong enough it keeps rising and when it hits the LFC (level of free convection) it rises even quicker creating an updraught.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,946 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Yay something interesting.

    And i'm in a right spot for it aswell in the very far southeast corner of ireland in beautiful wexford


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Tornando9 wrote: »
    This is when the sun heats the ground and the warm air rises. Warm air contains moisture so it condenses as it rises creating the lovely bubbly clouds or convection. If the convection is strong enough it keeps rising and when it hits the LFC (level of free convection) it rises even quicker creating an updraught.

    Exactly, except that it is cold at this altitude where moisture would not normally reach which must mean only one thing................................. SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    They've updated there warning now with

    2011-11-3

    Thats more like it! , alot like the Estofex now too! ... only a good thing i guess !:)

    Only thing to worry about now is LI 's ... or a A crappy squall line forming...


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  • Registered Users Posts: 203 ✭✭Tornando9


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Exactly, except that it is cold at this altitude where moisture would not normally reach which must mean only one thing................................. SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Yeah snow. Now put down the glue..


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