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Possibility of more cold weather from the 9th of March

  • 03-03-2011 9:05am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    Fine folks if Darkman2 is gone into hibernation then i'll take up the slack

    1) I Can't believe there's not more people on here commenting on the latest models which have been showing the possibility of a snowfest around the 9th

    The GFS shows -6 uppers widespread across the country with a PM incursion from the north west

    truckin.png

    snowr.png

    The BOM access agrees below

    truckin2.png

    The ECMWF however still hasn't come to the party and the other models are still on the fence so lets see if we see some upgrades later today because the GFS is a serious upgrade on previous runs.

    If anyone finds faults with what i've posted please point it out. I think the PM incursion as it is would lead to heavy snowfalls in the north and west however during the day especially at this time of year there would be a lot of melting.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    It's looking interesting at least. The GFS has been downgrading the snow potential over the last few runs, but the cold air is now arriving within t144 so entering the semi-reliable timeframe, and it's slowly gaining more ensemble support with the mean just touching -5C on 850hPa graph. We just need the high to our south west to move away a little and it's game on:D
    After the last 2 months I think we deserve a final wintery blast!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭Big Daddy Cool


    i predict no snow but light rain for the 9th and 10th of march followed by more dry and sunny weather.


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    The 06z GFS has the cold arriving at t138 now, but once more, makes it just a 36 hour event. Hopefully we won't see the usual warming uppers as we enter t48, but if it can stay consistent up to t0, everywhere should at least see a snow shower or 2, with some lying snow in the west and north.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    GFS is yes a 36 hour event atm however both the GFS and GEFS both have a view still on the 9th. No push Back. Also the GEFS keeps the cold here much longer making it a 72 hour event...

    Waiting on ECM to load up and Bom access

    gfs1150.png

    gfs2156.png

    gens00156.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Oh, the snow link of my website has been dormant a while now will I wake it up ?;)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    The control run certainly looking coldest of the bunch, but a good few now going for at least a brief cold/snowy spell, better than anything in January or February. Hopefully the ECM will jump on board this evening.
    Ensemble mean shows the high slipping a little further to the south west also which will help.
    ensemblemean9march.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,537 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    One final fleeting blast of wintry weather would be very nice:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    "Quickly trying to remember if Its Nacho Libre or Su Campu who is the pessimist* usually". Must be Su Campu!

    *Realist :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,960 ✭✭✭DarkJager


    Lads, please stop wishing for more of that **** weather :D Its spring time now and its about time we got some warmth and sunshine instead of praying for "one final wintery blast". Will ye be doing the same in the middle of July when its 20+c out and splitting the rocks?


  • Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭NIALL D


    ^^^ there all talkin about the sun in the spring thread ;):rolleyes:

    hopefully one more good blast of freezing weather is on the way , few days of snow wud be grand...


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,960 ✭✭✭DarkJager


    NIALL D wrote: »
    ^^^ there all talkin about the sun in the spring thread ;):rolleyes:

    hopefully one more good blast of freezing weather is on the way , few days of snow wud be grand...

    Are you insane? What would a few days of snow do apart from **** everything up? :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭Big Daddy Cool


    DarkJager wrote: »
    Lads, please stop wishing for more of that **** weather :D Its spring time now and its about time we got some warmth and sunshine instead of praying for "one final wintery blast". Will ye be doing the same in the middle of July when its 20+c out and splitting the rocks?


    i fully expect to still see a couple of ''possibly and'' ''potentially'' cold weather threads from the snow and frost lovers on here, maybe not as far as july cos that would be just crazy, but certainly through april


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,572 ✭✭✭lord lucan


    FATHER_TED_Down_with_this_sort_of_t.jpg


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    I fully expect to still see a couple of ''possibly and'' ''potentially'' cold weather threads from the snow and frost lovers on here In Mid June and it splitting the rocks outside

    Fixed that :cool: to take into account the hardcore snow bunnies we get around here. Don't forget that 10% to 20% of all Boards Viewers were in this here forum during the cold snap in late 2010.

    It is like a feckin morgue today and the sun bating down outside.

    WFstats21hoursDec01.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Uh-oh, the 12z GFS is a huge downgrade thus far. The high to the south west nudges too close and the cold uppers just skim the north... hopefully this will prove to be something of an outlier, and the ECM will come to the rescue later on!

    9thMarch.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Ensembles are an upgrade though:D
    The 850hPa ensemble mean now dips below -5C for Dublin between the 9th and 10th and stays pretty close to it for the rest of the run.
    March9thensemblemean.png

    Some rather interesting looking ensembles too, such as P12!
    Somewhere would get a dumping with this!
    p12Up.png
    p12precip.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 412 ✭✭Vanhalla


    I cannot believe there are still ppl here wishing for more cold and snow! what the hell is wrong with you people.
    Its bloody spring time. time to start growing things.
    how after the last week of this lovely weather ye would want a return to snow , i just dont know! :rolleyes:




  • -5c or even -8c 850 air in off the atlantic does not bring snow except to the mountain tops as there is too much of a maritime influence.

    You need sub -9c 850 air and lower so this is a non event even if it happened.
    Cold rain showers with some sleet mixed in or hail.

    -5c air does work if you have snowfields over Ireland and an established cold pool from the north or North east or the East in situ for a while though in other words a surface freezing feed of air [usually an east or northeasterly] plus an existing deep cold pool
    No sign of that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,258 ✭✭✭MUSEIST


    Vanhalla wrote: »
    I cannot believe there are still ppl here wishing for more cold and snow! what the hell is wrong with you people.
    Its bloody spring time. time to start growing things.
    how after the last week of this lovely weather ye would want a return to snow , i just dont know! :rolleyes:

    As someone who normally loves snow I kind of agree with this. As long as it stays bright I'm okay with the current weather, not too bothered about temp.


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    -5c or even -8c 850 air in off the atlantic does not bring snow except to the mountain tops as there is too much of a maritime influence.

    You need sub -9c 850 air and lower so this is a non event even if it happened.
    Cold rain showers with some sleet mixed in or hail.

    -5c air does work if you have snowfields over Ireland and an established cold pool from the north or North east or the East in situ for a while though in other words a surface freezing feed of air [usually an east or northeasterly] plus an existing deep cold pool
    No sign of that.

    Perhaps in coastal areas, sleet might be the best they'd get, but inland with evaporative cooling, -6C to -8C 850s should easily be enough to get some snow showers.
    Take March 3rd 2008 for example, uppers were between -6 and -8C, from a North Westerly flow, yet there were snow showers across much of Ireland with accumalations in many places, I even built a snowman with my girlfriend that day:D
    Here are the charts anyway

    Rrea00120080303.gifRrea00220080303.gif

    Reports from Met Eireann
    http://met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/mar08_lores.pdf


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    GFS is back on for the 9th. Looks like the beer run was just a wobbler.

    upgradeb.png

    upgrade1i.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    GFS is back on for the 9th. Looks like the beer run was just a wobbler.

    Unfortunately, the 528 dam line doesn't make it very far south, the air pressure doesn't drop below 1020hPa with the cold air in place, and with the ssts close to their lowest at this time of year, it's unlikely we would get enough instability to generate any heavy showers.
    Back to hoping the ensembles show a continued improvement!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    This is lovely weather we are having, nice and dry ,warm by day , cold at night.
    Dont really care if snow comes back or not at this stage its getting late so cant see anything major happening.
    Just dreading the mild and wet days coming back.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    My cows are out by day, they are telling me they want no snow, I agree with them.
    They love the sun on their backs, they would like it a little warmer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    The ECM and the GFS operational run still not too keen on this northerly, but the GFS ensemble are still giving it a good bit of support, with a 50/50 split.
    Still though, seems less likely to happen than it did last night, with the most likely scenario being a continuation of the high pressure centered near or over Ireland.
    I'd just like 1 last trek up the snow covered Galtees before the warmth arrives, haven't been since last December:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,315 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    no more snow. bring on the warm weather and sunshine.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    I'm obviously a snow lover - so completely biased - and I'm a weather illiterate, but both the GFS 6z and (to some extent) the ECM 12z seem to suggest -8's over much of the country, with Donegal etc being right in the firing line, on 9 March. In fact both suggest it may clear quickly but another bite of the cherry may follow shortly afterwards. Indeed the 6z GFS in its precipitation charts (not very reliable at this time frame I accept) are calling for snow for most of the country (alas not down here in continental Cork!) on 9 March (next Wednesday).

    Am I reading this right?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Min wrote: »
    they are telling me they want no snow, I agree with them.
    .
    Really??!!
    Shock horror :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,774 ✭✭✭Big Daddy Cool


    i'm still predicting all we'll get next week is maybe a couple of days with light rain, around tuesday onwards followed by more sunshiiiiiine :D


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  • MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    Perhaps in coastal areas, sleet might be the best they'd get, but inland with evaporative cooling, -6C to -8C 850s should easily be enough to get some snow showers.
    Take March 3rd 2008 for example, uppers were between -6 and -8C, from a North Westerly flow, yet there were snow showers across much of Ireland with accumalations in many places, I even built a snowman with my girlfriend that day:D
    yes nuisance sleety snow in a few areas that didn't amount to much,most people in urban areas had bits of sleety rain and would have seen it snow only on the distant hills.
    It would of course been a big deal given it was probably a very good snow lol compared to the previous 6 years of snow drought.


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