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15-11-2010, 16:46   #1
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Prolonged cold spell on the way

Very, very rare to see such almost concise agreement across all models but a sharp East and Northeasterly looks very likely before the end of the month with the European models really pushing this in particular in terms of potential for frost, ice and even snow.

120hrs is the key time frame. High pressure building toward Greenland and across the Northern Latitudes signals a fundamental shift in our weather.

Looking across the other models (which I will update later as some are not out yet)....the UK Met Office at 144hrs


NOGAPS model

Snow is unusual but not unheard of in November and this is quite unusual pattern at any time of year but was frequent last Winter.

So in short a cold Northeasterly seems to be on the way but it remains to be seen as to what the depth of cold will be. Either way the weather will feel different outdoors come Sunday!

More later...

Last edited by darkman2; 15-11-2010 at 16:57.
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15-11-2010, 17:15   #2
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Bring it on.
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15-11-2010, 18:46   #3
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15-11-2010, 18:58   #4
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A bit of a stunning ECM tonight for the time of year. I expect Weathercheck in here imminently

144hrs - Not exceptionally cold but still a bitter enough Northeasterly wind

168hrs - Completely different story as winds swing Easterly and increase and wintry showers into the East

Might aswell go a little further

192hrs - scattered sleet and snow showers - very cold and frosty inland esspecially at night.

And continues very cold and wintry throughout.
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15-11-2010, 19:11   #5
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An awesome ECM run.
If memory serves me right most of last Winter the 850's were higher than -5 and yet it was bitterly cold.
This looks like an extreme event for November, which in a way is a tad worrying because this is the last thing Ireland and indeed Europe need.
Still bring it on
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15-11-2010, 19:57   #6
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Ah ****e!
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15-11-2010, 20:04   #7
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Great charts but my gut tells me that high pressure will continuously shift to the East, sending most of the cold to Central/Eastern Europe. No scientific foundation to my above point, so it's validity to close to zero.
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15-11-2010, 22:54   #8
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Winter came even a bit earlier last night in Dingle. They had very intense hail/snow shower with thunder/lightning for a good bit during the night. Albeit a lot of it had melted away today, there was still a few patches where it was clinging.
I thought i was seeing things when i saw snow banked up against the ditche on the road in..
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15-11-2010, 23:30   #9
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Yeah great charts, snow in November certainly can't be ruled out, never forget the time we had snow on Nov 24th/25th 2006.
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15-11-2010, 23:54   #10
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So if we are to expect snow in November how long do ye weather gurus think it will last?
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16-11-2010, 00:04   #11
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So if those charts are correct we are looking at it being close to zero during the day next Monday??
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16-11-2010, 00:25   #12
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Originally Posted by Aiel View Post
So if those charts are correct we are looking at it being close to zero during the day next Monday??
Late November is a bit too early for temperatures to be close to freezing by day. it'll be more like 3 - 8 degrees.
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16-11-2010, 00:57   #13
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zero or less where fog persists. Nacho is about right with those temps. Of course, the longer the cold persists the colder it will become. Add in the shortening days and temps should drop closer to 3-4c during the day if the cold persists into december.
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16-11-2010, 05:26   #14
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Originally Posted by angelfire9 View Post
So if we are to expect snow in November how long do ye weather gurus think it will last?
It's hard to say. I don't recall seeing such charts so early in the season. Those Greenland and/or Scandinavian Highs are notoriously stubborn to shift once they get a grip. We could see, as MT has alluded to in his forecast, mild Atlantic weather trying to push through periodically and in such cases a tremendous meteorological battle takes place between mild and cold air with severe blizzards for the boundary line of the two masses. This happened a lot in 1947 but that winter didn t really start until the end of January! MT's excellent forecast reminds me of that winters pattern. This 'could' be another classic winter, but only time will really tell.
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16-11-2010, 07:26   #15
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yay although now struggling to move right due to leaving window opened alnight
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