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Prolonged cold spell on the way

  • 15-11-2010 4:46pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Very, very rare to see such almost concise agreement across all models but a sharp East and Northeasterly looks very likely before the end of the month with the European models really pushing this in particular in terms of potential for frost, ice and even snow.


    120hrs is the key time frame. High pressure building toward Greenland and across the Northern Latitudes signals a fundamental shift in our weather.

    gme-0-132.png?12


    Looking across the other models (which I will update later as some are not out yet)....the UK Met Office at 144hrs

    Rukm1441.gif

    GFS

    Rtavn1681.png

    NOGAPS model

    nogaps-0-180.png?15-17

    Snow is unusual but not unheard of in November and this is quite unusual pattern at any time of year but was frequent last Winter.


    So in short a cold Northeasterly seems to be on the way but it remains to be seen as to what the depth of cold will be. Either way the weather will feel different outdoors come Sunday!


    More later...


«13456725

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,258 ✭✭✭MUSEIST


    Bring it on.:D:D:D:D:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man


    whooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    A bit of a stunning ECM tonight for the time of year. I expect Weathercheck in here imminently


    144hrs - Not exceptionally cold but still a bitter enough Northeasterly wind

    http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-144.GIF?15-0


    168hrs - Completely different story as winds swing Easterly and increase and wintry showers into the East

    ECM1-168.GIF?15-0

    ECM0-168.GIF?15-0


    Might aswell go a little further

    192hrs - scattered sleet and snow showers - very cold and frosty inland esspecially at night.

    ECM1-192.GIF?15-0

    ECM0-192.GIF?15-1

    And continues very cold and wintry throughout.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    An awesome ECM run.
    If memory serves me right most of last Winter the 850's were higher than -5 and yet it was bitterly cold.
    This looks like an extreme event for November, which in a way is a tad worrying because this is the last thing Ireland and indeed Europe need.
    Still bring it on:D:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,572 ✭✭✭lord lucan


    Ah ****e!:(


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Great charts but my gut tells me that high pressure will continuously shift to the East, sending most of the cold to Central/Eastern Europe. No scientific foundation to my above point, so it's validity to close to zero.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,115 ✭✭✭Takeshi_Kovacs


    Winter came even a bit earlier last night in Dingle. They had very intense hail/snow shower with thunder/lightning for a good bit during the night. Albeit a lot of it had melted away today, there was still a few patches where it was clinging.
    I thought i was seeing things when i saw snow banked up against the ditche on the road in..


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 252 ✭✭danni2


    Yeah great charts, snow in November certainly can't be ruled out, never forget the time we had snow on Nov 24th/25th 2006.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,226 ✭✭✭angelfire9


    So if we are to expect snow in November how long do ye weather gurus think it will last?


  • Registered Users Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Aiel


    So if those charts are correct we are looking at it being close to zero during the day next Monday??


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Aiel wrote: »
    So if those charts are correct we are looking at it being close to zero during the day next Monday??

    Late November is a bit too early for temperatures to be close to freezing by day. it'll be more like 3 - 8 degrees.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    zero or less where fog persists. Nacho is about right with those temps. Of course, the longer the cold persists the colder it will become. Add in the shortening days and temps should drop closer to 3-4c during the day if the cold persists into december.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    angelfire9 wrote: »
    So if we are to expect snow in November how long do ye weather gurus think it will last?

    It's hard to say. I don't recall seeing such charts so early in the season. Those Greenland and/or Scandinavian Highs are notoriously stubborn to shift once they get a grip. We could see, as MT has alluded to in his forecast, mild Atlantic weather trying to push through periodically and in such cases a tremendous meteorological battle takes place between mild and cold air with severe blizzards for the boundary line of the two masses. This happened a lot in 1947 but that winter didn t really start until the end of January! MT's excellent forecast reminds me of that winters pattern. This 'could' be another classic winter, but only time will really tell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,315 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    yay:D although now struggling to move right due to leaving window opened alnight:o


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,673 ✭✭✭✭senordingdong


    Ah sure didn't we get by just fine last year?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,226 ✭✭✭angelfire9


    Oh GOD :(

    I normally like snow I really do
    And its a great chance for the kids to build snowmen (which they didn't really get to do last winter around here because it was all ice)

    BUT I REALLY don't want a repeat of last winter
    Floods I could manage
    But ice on the roads? No thanks

    I am due a baby on December 19th and am dreading the weather and the drive to Limerick :(

    If it turns bad in January I'd be fine with that! :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Late November is a bit too early for temperatures to be close to freezing by day. it'll be more like 3 - 8 degrees.

    The end of November 2008 saw max temps struggling to reach 0c in parts of the midlands and east esp. As Wolfe said, this was due to persistant fog during the day.

    Average (61-90) daytime maxima for the end of November ranges from 8c-10c inland to 9c-11c in more coastal areas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭dexter647


    angelfire9 wrote: »
    Oh GOD :(

    I normally like snow I really do
    And its a great chance for the kids to build snowmen (which they didn't really get to do last winter around here because it was all ice)

    BUT I REALLY don't want a repeat of last winter
    Floods I could manage
    But ice on the roads? No thanks

    I am due a baby on December 19th and am dreading the weather and the drive to Limerick :(

    If it turns bad in January I'd be fine with that! :D

    Totally understand where your coming from as my wife is due in dec as well...So lets hope it aint 2 bad then and we get a nice snowy jan to enjoy by the fire...Best of luck with the new baby:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    angelfire9 wrote: »
    Oh GOD :(


    I am due a baby on December 19th and am dreading the weather and the drive to Limerick :(

    If it turns bad in January I'd be fine with that! :D

    Hi Angel same for my wife and I last december. While i love snow and the cold we had the worry of going to the regional from west clare at any moment. We ended up asking the midwife at the last scan could my wife be brought in to be induced as a result of the weather. they said yes as she was full term.

    If things get too bad you can always ask to be brought in. It's for the safety of your child and you, and not for convenience. the hospital 'should' accept this.

    Congrats and best of luck to you and yours.

    Wolfe


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The end of November 2008 saw max temps struggling to reach 0c in parts of the midlands and east esp. As Wolfe said, this was due to persistant fog during the day.

    Average (61-90) daytime maxima for the end of November ranges from 8c-10c inland to 9c-11c in more coastal areas.

    Ah yes i forgot the trifiling detail about lingering fog :P :o
    I was going on the basis that the fog would burn off in most places. Although as Wolfe' says the longer the cold lasts, with the shortening days and the colder air eventually winging it's way over from the continent, then the temperature will steadily fall back closer to zero, with or without fog.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 30 Nov 2010:

    A good deal of cloud around this weekend, showers or longer spells of rain affecting southern and eastern parts on Sunday when the far south will also be quite windy. Next week conditions will soon turn colder. Northern and eastern parts in particular will remain unsettled and, at times, windy with showers and hill snow, these showers turning increasingly wintry with a risk of snow to lower levels developing later in the week. Parts of the Midlands and Irish Sea coastal areas also at risk from wintry showers later. Temperatures largely below average for the time of year and feeling cold, especially where conditions are windy. The cold theme then continues into the last week of November, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather.

    Updated: 1208 on Tue 16 Nov 2010

    UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Dec 2010 to Wednesday 15 Dec 2010:

    It is expected to remain cold across much of the UK, with precipitation amounts around average, or slightly below, throughout the period. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers to northern and eastern areas at times. Amounts of sunshine should be above average away from northern and eastern coasts where it is likely to be cloudier. Temperatures are likely to be below average across the country, with frosty nights and the possibility of some wintry precipitation at times for most areas.

    Updated: 1154 on Tue 16 Nov 2010

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html


    UKMO is going for a cold and wintry UK from from late Nov to mid Dec. I know that doesn't include us but it's encouraging. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea



    SNOW AND -10C ON WAY AS AN ARCTIC WIND BLASTS UK

    DIG out the woollies – forecasters predict snow and frost is on the way this weekend.

    A seven-day cold snap will begin on Sunday as winter arrives a month earlier than last year.

    Freezing air from the Arctic will push daytime temperatures to zero across the North, delivering up to an inch of snow in parts.

    Across the South, the first flakes could fall during the week as temperatures reach just 2C (36F) during the day.


    FOLLOW THE EXPRESS ON TWITTER!

    And overnight frosts could send the mercury down to -10C (14F), causing treacherous driving conditions each morning.

    Brian Gaze, of forecasters The Weather Outlook, said: “A cold spell will push southwards with an increasing risk of frost and snow for much of Britain.

    “The highest chance of snow is in the North and East, with London also at risk and higher ground in the South-east, such as the Chiltern hills, having a higher chance of snow.

    “Overnight frosts are likely to be widespread, with lows of -10C (14F) possible where snow lies.”

    Met Office forecaster John Hammond added: “Average temperatures for this time of year are 7-9C (45-48F), but we are looking at lower than that next week.”

    With winter expected to be as harsh as last year – the coldest in 31 years – experts have begun predicting a white Christmas.

    Jonathan Powell of Positive Weather Solutions said: “We are still on for a white Christmas for most of Britain, even in the South-east. December and January are looking bitterly cold, so it looks as if temperatures will be parallel to last year.”

    http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/211964/Snow-and-10C-on-way-as-an-Arctic-wind-blasts-UK


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I know it's still a way off but it's great to see these kind of charts in November. :pac:

    This day next week.....

    528 line extended down over the country :

    1sigx2.png

    The Atlantic blocked, cold air making its way towards us :

    24e9yye.png


    Hope this early cold is a good sign for the rest of the winter. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Any thoughts on the 12Z ECM? :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭metrovelvet


    dexter647 wrote: »
    Totally understand where your coming from as my wife is due in dec as well...So lets hope it aint 2 bad then and we get a nice snowy jan to enjoy by the fire...Best of luck with the new baby:)

    Oh right. So all the people with babies due in January can get screwed.

    I hate this weather. Last year the ambulences couldnt get to a lot of the country because of the snow and ice. Neither could the oil trucks get to homes. It was terrible.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,422 ✭✭✭Avns1s


    Oh right. So all the people with babies due in January can get screwed.

    I hate this weather. Last year the ambulences couldnt get to a lot of the country because of the snow and ice. Neither could the oil trucks get to homes. It was terrible.

    That's a bit harsh don't you think. I am sure not even the most enthusiastic weather fan would wish any hardship on any expectant mother or her new arrival.

    Whatever about the ambulances being challenged, there is no excuse for the oil truck not being able to get to homes. My view on it is that a small bit of forward planning would ensure that the oil truck would not be needed as the tank should be adequately full in advance of the cold weather, particularly if access is via hilly side roads. Plan ahead!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Oh right. So all the people with babies due in January can get screwed.

    I hate this weather. Last year the ambulences couldnt get to a lot of the country because of the snow and ice. Neither could the oil trucks get to homes. It was terrible.


    10-15 years of warmer winters made people forget about how difficult rural locations are in cold weather. The "dream house" out in the countryside to bring up children can become a nightmare as a result.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Everyone is getting awfully excited about this!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Everyone is getting awfully excited about this!!!

    The thing is the last GFS run showed the horrible scenario of the high moving towards us and all the cold moving to our south east and into Europe. Hopefully this run will change that!!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    12Z ECMWF keeps the cold theme going for next week, with some welcome drying in the easterly flow. The wind is southerly up Baffin Bay, as opposed to the persistent northerly that's been in place for the past several weeks. This southerly flow pumps high geopotentials northwards, intensifying the Greenland high, and leading to probably a week or more of continental chill. There's a chance of a polar low forming off the Norwegian coast Sunday, but it won't affect us.

    Watch for some possibly foggy nights over the weekend, followed by some very harsh frosts next week. I can't see us being affected by anticyclonic gloomy low stratus, so sunshine hours should be up.


This discussion has been closed.
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