Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Thread Closed  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
15-11-2010, 16:46   #1
darkman2
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,480
Prolonged cold spell on the way

Very, very rare to see such almost concise agreement across all models but a sharp East and Northeasterly looks very likely before the end of the month with the European models really pushing this in particular in terms of potential for frost, ice and even snow.


120hrs is the key time frame. High pressure building toward Greenland and across the Northern Latitudes signals a fundamental shift in our weather.




Looking across the other models (which I will update later as some are not out yet)....the UK Met Office at 144hrs



GFS



NOGAPS model



Snow is unusual but not unheard of in November and this is quite unusual pattern at any time of year but was frequent last Winter.


So in short a cold Northeasterly seems to be on the way but it remains to be seen as to what the depth of cold will be. Either way the weather will feel different outdoors come Sunday!


More later...

Last edited by darkman2; 15-11-2010 at 16:57.
darkman2 is offline  
Advertisement
15-11-2010, 17:15   #2
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 3,202
Bring it on.
MUSEIST is offline  
(3) thanks from:
15-11-2010, 18:46   #3
isle of man
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 346
whooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
isle of man is offline  
15-11-2010, 18:58   #4
darkman2
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,480
A bit of a stunning ECM tonight for the time of year. I expect Weathercheck in here imminently


144hrs - Not exceptionally cold but still a bitter enough Northeasterly wind

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecm...1-144.GIF?15-0


168hrs - Completely different story as winds swing Easterly and increase and wintry showers into the East






Might aswell go a little further

192hrs - scattered sleet and snow showers - very cold and frosty inland esspecially at night.





And continues very cold and wintry throughout.
darkman2 is offline  
15-11-2010, 19:11   #5
JanuarySnowstor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,879
An awesome ECM run.
If memory serves me right most of last Winter the 850's were higher than -5 and yet it was bitterly cold.
This looks like an extreme event for November, which in a way is a tad worrying because this is the last thing Ireland and indeed Europe need.
Still bring it on
JanuarySnowstor is offline  
Advertisement
15-11-2010, 19:57   #6
lord lucan
Registered User
 
lord lucan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 9,359
Ah ****e!
lord lucan is offline  
Thanks from:
15-11-2010, 20:04   #7
patneve2
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 1,572
Great charts but my gut tells me that high pressure will continuously shift to the East, sending most of the cold to Central/Eastern Europe. No scientific foundation to my above point, so it's validity to close to zero.
patneve2 is offline  
15-11-2010, 22:54   #8
Takeshi_Kovacs
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,105
Winter came even a bit earlier last night in Dingle. They had very intense hail/snow shower with thunder/lightning for a good bit during the night. Albeit a lot of it had melted away today, there was still a few patches where it was clinging.
I thought i was seeing things when i saw snow banked up against the ditche on the road in..
Takeshi_Kovacs is offline  
(3) thanks from:
15-11-2010, 23:30   #9
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 252
Yeah great charts, snow in November certainly can't be ruled out, never forget the time we had snow on Nov 24th/25th 2006.
danni2 is offline  
Advertisement
15-11-2010, 23:54   #10
angelfire9
Registered User
 
angelfire9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 2,167
So if we are to expect snow in November how long do ye weather gurus think it will last?
angelfire9 is offline  
16-11-2010, 00:04   #11
Aiel
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 498
Temps.

So if those charts are correct we are looking at it being close to zero during the day next Monday??
Aiel is offline  
16-11-2010, 00:25   #12
nacho libre
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,313
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aiel View Post
So if those charts are correct we are looking at it being close to zero during the day next Monday??
Late November is a bit too early for temperatures to be close to freezing by day. it'll be more like 3 - 8 degrees.
nacho libre is offline  
16-11-2010, 00:57   #13
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 2,661
zero or less where fog persists. Nacho is about right with those temps. Of course, the longer the cold persists the colder it will become. Add in the shortening days and temps should drop closer to 3-4c during the day if the cold persists into december.
WolfeIRE is offline  
Thanks from:
16-11-2010, 05:26   #14
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 2,034
Quote:
Originally Posted by angelfire9 View Post
So if we are to expect snow in November how long do ye weather gurus think it will last?
It's hard to say. I don't recall seeing such charts so early in the season. Those Greenland and/or Scandinavian Highs are notoriously stubborn to shift once they get a grip. We could see, as MT has alluded to in his forecast, mild Atlantic weather trying to push through periodically and in such cases a tremendous meteorological battle takes place between mild and cold air with severe blizzards for the boundary line of the two masses. This happened a lot in 1947 but that winter didn t really start until the end of January! MT's excellent forecast reminds me of that winters pattern. This 'could' be another classic winter, but only time will really tell.
force eleven is offline  
16-11-2010, 07:26   #15
sunbabe08
Registered User
 
sunbabe08's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 5,904
yay although now struggling to move right due to leaving window opened alnight
sunbabe08 is offline  
Thread Closed

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search