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13-11-2010, 19:37   #1
 
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Wave Depression Watch 16th/17th November - Low Risk of Intense Storm

Couldn't find an appropriate thread post on regarding this but latest 12z model runs are continuing to show a possible potant wave depression developing and affecting Ireland during the coming mid-week period.

Maquiladora and M.T have already mentioned this possible development in other threads. The ECMWF/UKMO & GFS runs tonight continue to show the potential for a developing wave to the SW of Ireland on monday which may have an impact on Ireland later on.


GFS 12z forecast for next Tues 12:00 UTC:






UKMO 12z forecast for Wed 12:00 UTC
:





ECMWF 12z forecast for Wed 12:00 UTC:





All 3 models in agreement regarding this possiblity but postioning of the feature is not. It may well come to nothing closer the time and may bring nothing more than an average wet day over Ireland. Might be worth discussing though for better or worse as there is little else of interest on the weather front at the moment!!




All images c/o Meteocentre
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Last edited by Deep Easterly; 13-11-2010 at 19:57. Reason: Wrong date and charts
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13-11-2010, 20:10   #2
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Something to keep an eye on alright DE. Models are showing better agreement on this now but I still feel there is a lot of uncertainty with the track and intensity.

Hi-res look at the 12Z ECM :



Centre of the depression at 978 right over Cork. Small core and fairly nice looking isobars. I'm sure that would bring gales to the south/southeast coasts and perhaps further inland depending on how it tracked?


12Z GFS develops it further west, limiting the threat of strong winds to more western/northwestern coasts:



12Z NOGAPS and CMC develop it too but as a slightly weaker system and take it up through the middle of the country.



I agree DE, worth keeping an eye on cause there isnt much else happening! Will probably turn out to be nothing special but that won't stop me dreaming of a re-run of Xmas Eve 97.

Last edited by maquiladora; 13-11-2010 at 20:12.
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13-11-2010, 22:14   #3
 
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The NOGAPS develops up to 60kt mean winds with this system off the south on Tuesday, which I'm sure won't happen. The EMCWF, GFS and UKMO are pretty similar in having a closed low near or over us Tuesday, but it's notable that the FAX charts (UK MET and German) don't, so the human thinking is siding against it. We'll see if they change their minds over the next day or two.




DWD (German) for Tuesday midday.
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13-11-2010, 22:19   #4
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18Z GFS deepens it more but takes the track further west than the last run. I thought the track might come more in line with the ECM/UKMO but seems to be going in the other direction.
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13-11-2010, 22:25   #5
 
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Indeed Su & Maq, Gerry Murphy didn't alude this either on the RTE weather tonight.
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13-11-2010, 22:30   #6
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Su that chart seems to be the same the 0Z GME at 84 hours, doesn't look like 12Z models were taken into account there?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...=0&INFO=0&WMO=


The later 12Z GME is a bit closer to what the other models on this thread are showing but isn't very interesting :

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...=0&INFO=0&WMO=
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13-11-2010, 22:40   #7
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Whats a wave depression and what effect has it?
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13-11-2010, 22:42   #8
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18Z NOGAPS is further west too. Still looks windy though.
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13-11-2010, 23:01   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pangea View Post
Whats a wave depression and what effect has it?
Its just a secondary low. Same effects : wind/rain.

The example on this page actually looks very similar to what some of the models are showing.

http://science.jrank.org/pages/65031...ession%29.html
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13-11-2010, 23:46   #10
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maquiladora View Post
Su that chart seems to be the same the 0Z GME at 84 hours, doesn't look like 12Z models were taken into account there?
Correct, the 12Zz run only goes to 72hrs - the 00Z run goes to 108. We'll see what they say in the morning after tonight's...

There's still some uncertainty resulting from the complexity of the upper flow forecast around Monday. Like Carmen, this low will spawn from another larger low off the US east coast, and gets caught by a strengthening jetstreak formed late tomorrow by a blast of arctic airmass down Baffin Bay. But unlike Carmen, this jetstreak doesn't become that strong or longlasting, and splits up Monday night, with the upper trough digging slowly eastwards. I think the exact dynamics of this split are not fully resolved, and this is causing the uncertainty.

In any case, I can't see there being enough upper forcing to cause too much of a wind event, but it remains to be seen what we get in the way of rain from it.
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13-11-2010, 23:57   #11
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Here is the latest UKMO 72 hour FAX which does show the secondary low developing to our southwest. (The 84 hour chat hasn't been updated yet)



Looks like there wasn't much adjusted there from the 12Z UKMO model run.
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14-11-2010, 08:16   #12
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0Z ECM


72 Hours


96 Hours
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14-11-2010, 08:31   #13
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Looking at the other 06Z and 0Z models, there has been a very clear shift to the west on the track of this thing. Models will probably shift even further west later and right now I'd say the chances are this will end up being well out at sea. Chances of strong winds impacting us from this are falling.

Last edited by maquiladora; 14-11-2010 at 11:43.
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14-11-2010, 16:04   #14
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maquiladora View Post
Looking at the other 06Z and 0Z models, there has been a very clear shift to the west on the track of this thing. Models will probably shift even further west later and right now I'd say the chances are this will end up being well out at sea. Chances of strong winds impacting us from this are falling.
GFS 12z run keeping up this theme also, potentially some very strong winds just off the west coast but the best worst of them missing us.
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14-11-2010, 16:19   #15
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Originally Posted by Deep Easterly View Post
GFS 12z run keeping up this theme also, potentially some very strong winds just off the west coast but the best worst of them missing us.
Yep, gales just touching the very edge of the west coast but its too far away from us really. Same old story...

12Z NAE, UKMO and GME take the same track too.

Last edited by maquiladora; 14-11-2010 at 16:30.
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