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04-11-2010, 11:18   #1
 
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Potential Stormy - Sun/Mon (Media hyped storm, never forecast by Met/Boards)

Probably deserves its own thread as posts on this issue are being submitted in various threads.

LATEST FROM MTC
The model consensus is now growing for a significant rain and wind event on Sunday night and Monday, with the track of low pressure appearing more in agreement now, from a northwesterly direction and across the western parts of Ireland or just offshore, towards the Bay of Biscay by Monday night. Most of the guidance now shows winds backing around during Sunday from an initial SSW direction towards the ESE, rising to near gale force in gusts, then to the NE by Monday morning at about 30-50 mph, with intervals of heavy rain likely throughout.

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Last edited by WolfeIRE; 05-11-2010 at 10:19.
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04-11-2010, 11:27   #2
Iancar29
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Ur able to edit the thread name yourself,
Just go into edit , then advance.
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04-11-2010, 11:47   #3
maquiladora
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Ah now you've gone and jinxed it by starting a thread!

Good ensemble agreement on the 06Z GFS for an absolute pressure nosedive :



Looks like a 50mb drop over a couple of hours.

Anyone know the record for the fastest drop in air pressure in Ireland?

Last edited by maquiladora; 04-11-2010 at 11:55.
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04-11-2010, 13:57   #4
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That bloody thing will take over Western Europe by size of it. No doubt this will do what other systems do and send the strongest winds to batter France and the low countries. They are awful teases to Ireland i tells ya.
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04-11-2010, 14:05   #5
pauldry
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it will be very windy id say on Sunday night with high gusts of 50knots or more and cold too. Ive been tracking this a while and its stayed consistent. Its not going to give up the ghost now surely?
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04-11-2010, 14:13   #6
Hooter23
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Here in Galway they already have put barriers up down in the Spanish Arch area the storm is coinciding with high tide on Sunday evening I think

If the track of the storm slightly changes and brings the strongest winds our way it could be quite serious
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04-11-2010, 14:22   #7
maquiladora
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pauldry View Post
it will be very windy id say on Sunday night with high gusts of 50knots or more and cold too. Ive been tracking this a while and its stayed consistent. Its not going to give up the ghost now surely?
The track and intensity is far from nailed. Compare the 0Z GEM to the 0Z GME for example. Big differences even on the GFS between the 0Z and 06Z runs, center of the low hundreds of miles apart on each run at T96.

It's a fun one to watch though. If we got the kind of pressure drop some of the models are showing and the center of low ended up tracking further east and didn't fill.... we could get a serious auld storm.
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04-11-2010, 14:37   #8
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Originally Posted by Hooter23 View Post
Here in Galway they already have put barriers up down in the Spanish Arch area the storm is coinciding with high tide on Sunday evening I think

If the track of the storm slightly changes and brings the strongest winds our way it could be quite serious

Animation for forecast windspeeds (can change it to show waveheights/pressure) :

http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-M...res/1/wind/in/

Yeah if it comes down further to the east then we will get much higher winds.
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04-11-2010, 14:59   #9
Hooter23
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I think the track of this storm will defiantly change again the current track does look unusual it seems to dive to a very southerly direction which I think is not the usual track of these storms.
Also does anyone notice when these storms don't go their usual track between Iceland and Ireland and instead head toward France they seem to be a lot more extreme than usual or am I talking rubbish
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04-11-2010, 15:14   #10
Aiel
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M.E.

Met Eireann had said as recently as last night that the low would track between Iceland and Scotland and give strong winds to the northwest coast of Ireland but its obviously changed now.It will more then likely change again.High tide in Galway city+(potential)storm=me along the Salthill Prom on Sunday with my video camera hoping to capture good wave crashing footage while avoiding getting swept in.
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04-11-2010, 15:18   #11
maquiladora
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Originally Posted by Hooter23 View Post
I think the track of this storm will defiantly change again the current track does look unusual it seems to dive to a very southerly direction which I think is not the usual track of these storms.
Also does anyone notice when these storms don't go their usual track between Iceland and Ireland and instead head toward France they seem to be a lot more extreme than usual or am I talking rubbish
Yeah this isn't a common one. We usually see lows track straight across the Atlantic then curve away northeastward before reaching our shores.

Yeah I'm sure there will be changes to the track, the thing hasn't even formed yet. But that hasn't stopped the lads on the Met Monkey forums from ramping this up :

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Within the main jet streak, towards the South West quadrant of the storm system currently forecast some-where across Ireland and to the W of Ireland there is the potential of storm force winds sustained or in excess with gusts to 80 or 90mph. Needless to say, if a sting jet formation would develop - perhaps gusts in excess of even these values would be possible.
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04-11-2010, 16:10   #12
 
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Here is the latest GFS compared to the earlier output.

Shows storM centre directly over ireland on Monday at 6am. Pressure drops slightly on earlier output.

Will take a significant downgrade to shift Hurricane Hibernia from its current path.

EARLIER OUTPUT


LATEST OUTPUT
Attached Images
File Type: png airpressure1.png (102.0 KB, 3978 views)
File Type: png airpressure2.png (102.7 KB, 3989 views)
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04-11-2010, 16:26   #13
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Yeah not much of a change on the 12Z GFS.

For people who don't usually look at charts like the ones posted here and who might be interested in this, I think it's worth pointing out that the strongest winds are where the isobars are tightly together, in this case off to our west in the Atlantic. The center of the low is right over Ireland there but that actually means there wind would be very weak here apart from around the exposed coasts.
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04-11-2010, 16:36   #14
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UKMO 12Z has a different track to the GFS. Takes it on a more southeasterly track. A track like this could bring stronger winds to the southwest of the country.

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04-11-2010, 16:43   #15
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Great. Just what I need. Our house is on an exposed hilly site facing SW. well there goes the roof...
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