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Potential Stormy - Sun/Mon (Media hyped storm, never forecast by Met/Boards)

  • 04-11-2010 11:18am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Probably deserves its own thread as posts on this issue are being submitted in various threads.

    LATEST FROM MTC
    The model consensus is now growing for a significant rain and wind event on Sunday night and Monday, with the track of low pressure appearing more in agreement now, from a northwesterly direction and across the western parts of Ireland or just offshore, towards the Bay of Biscay by Monday night. Most of the guidance now shows winds backing around during Sunday from an initial SSW direction towards the ESE, rising to near gale force in gusts, then to the NE by Monday morning at about 30-50 mph, with intervals of heavy rain likely throughout.

    LATEST UKMO FAX
    PPVO89.png


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Ur able to edit the thread name yourself,
    Just go into edit , then advance. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Ah now you've gone and jinxed it by starting a thread! :P

    Good ensemble agreement on the 06Z GFS for an absolute pressure nosedive :

    1220ns0.png

    Looks like a 50mb drop over a couple of hours.

    Anyone know the record for the fastest drop in air pressure in Ireland?


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    That bloody thing will take over Western Europe by size of it. No doubt this will do what other systems do and send the strongest winds to batter France and the low countries. They are awful teases to Ireland i tells ya.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    it will be very windy id say on Sunday night with high gusts of 50knots or more and cold too. Ive been tracking this a while and its stayed consistent. Its not going to give up the ghost now surely?:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Here in Galway they already have put barriers up down in the Spanish Arch area the storm is coinciding with high tide on Sunday evening I think:eek:

    If the track of the storm slightly changes and brings the strongest winds our way it could be quite serious


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    pauldry wrote: »
    it will be very windy id say on Sunday night with high gusts of 50knots or more and cold too. Ive been tracking this a while and its stayed consistent. Its not going to give up the ghost now surely?:rolleyes:

    The track and intensity is far from nailed. Compare the 0Z GEM to the 0Z GME for example. Big differences even on the GFS between the 0Z and 06Z runs, center of the low hundreds of miles apart on each run at T96.

    It's a fun one to watch though. If we got the kind of pressure drop some of the models are showing and the center of low ended up tracking further east and didn't fill.... we could get a serious auld storm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    Here in Galway they already have put barriers up down in the Spanish Arch area the storm is coinciding with high tide on Sunday evening I think:eek:

    If the track of the storm slightly changes and brings the strongest winds our way it could be quite serious


    Animation for forecast windspeeds (can change it to show waveheights/pressure) :

    http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-ChartsLowres/1/wind/in/

    Yeah if it comes down further to the east then we will get much higher winds.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    I think the track of this storm will defiantly change again the current track does look unusual it seems to dive to a very southerly direction which I think is not the usual track of these storms.
    Also does anyone notice when these storms don't go their usual track between Iceland and Ireland and instead head toward France they seem to be a lot more extreme than usual or am I talking rubbish:pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Aiel


    Met Eireann had said as recently as last night that the low would track between Iceland and Scotland and give strong winds to the northwest coast of Ireland but its obviously changed now.It will more then likely change again.High tide in Galway city+(potential)storm=me along the Salthill Prom on Sunday with my video camera hoping to capture good wave crashing footage while avoiding getting swept in:).


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    I think the track of this storm will defiantly change again the current track does look unusual it seems to dive to a very southerly direction which I think is not the usual track of these storms.
    Also does anyone notice when these storms don't go their usual track between Iceland and Ireland and instead head toward France they seem to be a lot more extreme than usual or am I talking rubbish:pac:

    Yeah this isn't a common one. We usually see lows track straight across the Atlantic then curve away northeastward before reaching our shores.

    Yeah I'm sure there will be changes to the track, the thing hasn't even formed yet. :P But that hasn't stopped the lads on the Met Monkey forums from ramping this up : :rolleyes:
    Within the main jet streak, towards the South West quadrant of the storm system currently forecast some-where across Ireland and to the W of Ireland there is the potential of storm force winds sustained or in excess with gusts to 80 or 90mph. Needless to say, if a sting jet formation would develop - perhaps gusts in excess of even these values would be possible.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Here is the latest GFS compared to the earlier output.

    Shows storM centre directly over ireland on Monday at 6am. Pressure drops slightly on earlier output.

    Will take a significant downgrade to shift Hurricane Hibernia from its current path.

    EARLIER OUTPUT
    133671.png

    LATEST OUTPUT
    133672.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Yeah not much of a change on the 12Z GFS.

    For people who don't usually look at charts like the ones posted here and who might be interested in this, I think it's worth pointing out that the strongest winds are where the isobars are tightly together, in this case off to our west in the Atlantic. The center of the low is right over Ireland there but that actually means there wind would be very weak here apart from around the exposed coasts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    UKMO 12Z has a different track to the GFS. Takes it on a more southeasterly track. A track like this could bring stronger winds to the southwest of the country.

    2mq3tbl.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 521 ✭✭✭CarMuppet


    Great. Just what I need. Our house is on an exposed hilly site facing SW. well there goes the roof... :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Another potential storm to follow on Friday of next week
    ECM1-192.GIF?04-12


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Nice chart showing the highest forecast gusts based on 12Z GFS.
    Gusts of around the 130kmph mark out at sea to our west there. But if the track shifted enough to the east and kept the same intensity....


    nguetj.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    This happened a few years ago also where the big storm centre passed right over us therefore giving almost calm conditions:mad: it was so disappointing so close yet so far lol
    I'd say this storm track will move more to the east at least I hope it does:D
    At the same time I'm not sure if I want it to as it looks quite a severe storm we seem not to get hit by these violent storms as much as we should maybe our luck has run out this time:eek:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 311 ✭✭forkassed


    Could get Nasty in the East on Monday if this chart coincides with high tide


    Rtavn961.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Nice chart showing the highest forecast gusts based on 12Z GFS.
    Gusts of around the 130kmph mark out at sea to our west there. But if the track shifted enough to the east and kept the same intensity....


    nguetj.gif
    so maq according to that chart calm conditions on the east coast,even if it tracks east we wouldnt be in the fireing line :mad:

    edit:sorry just seen forkassed post above


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,312 ✭✭✭naughto


    iam in the west,mayo to be more accurate what will we be geting ??


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    delw wrote: »
    so maq according to that chart calm conditions on the east coast,even if it tracks east we wouldnt be in the fireing line :mad:

    edit:sorry just seen forkassed post above

    Calm conditions just at that time yes but it would be windy before and after the center of the low passes. I just highlighted that chart because it shows where the strongest gusts would be, based on that track.

    We won't know about the track for sure until Saturday though I'd say!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    I wonder if this storm comes off will it compare to the Xmas Eve storm in 1997 or the St Stephens Day storm the following year?? 160km/ph gusts in Cork and shannon airports :eek: Any archive charts available for those years??


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,258 ✭✭✭MUSEIST


    naughto wrote: »
    iam in the west,mayo to be more accurate what will we be geting ??

    lets just say the sheep will need to be bolted down:p


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,312 ✭✭✭naughto


    the only sheep i have are in me freezer.which is what iam eating for to nights dinner


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I wonder if this storm comes off will it compare to the Xmas Eve storm in 1997 or the St Stephens Day storm the following year?? 160km/ph gusts in Cork and shannon airports :eek: Any archive charts available for those years??

    I think the storms track would need to shift to the east and maybe be a bit more intense to get anything close to those kind of winds inland.

    Here is a chart for the 1997 storm, doesn't do it justice! :

    archives-1997-12-24-12-0.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Met Eireann showed one hell of a low pressure system for Sunday/Monday on the forecast tonight.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Calm conditions just at that time yes but it would be windy before and after the center of the low passes. I just highlighted that chart because it shows where the strongest gusts would be, based on that track.

    We won't know about the track for sure until Saturday though I'd say!

    Very true Maq. Hoping myself that this low will skirt more the the east!

    Latest ECM run also has the stongest winds over the southern half of the country in general and especially off the Munster coast as the slackness engulfs the rest of the country:


    Monday 12z forecast chart:
    133691.jpg

    Full gales smashing into Kerry and west Cork. with strong gale to storm force winds further offshore. Wonder will later runs continue this trend?


    The same model forecasting a pressure drop of around 50 hPa in the space of 24hrs between 12z Sunday and 12z Monday over the Dubln region:

    133698.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Very true Maq. Hoping myself that this low will skirt more the the east!

    Hopefully our friend the Rosenbloom Rule will help us out and it will indeed end up further east!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Plus, with saturated ground, and trees still in leaf to some degree, there is a heightened risk of them blowing down.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 521 ✭✭✭CarMuppet


    Actually the were contractors ( hired by ESB ) out in our area today trimming trees close to overhead wires. First time in years ive seen that. The ESB are watching this thread too!


This discussion has been closed.
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