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Wet & Blustery (Second Half Of Next Week)

  • 21-08-2010 6:51pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭


    Thought this deserved it's own thread because discussing it in the Hurricanes thread is giving it way too much credit :p and there really isn't much else to talk about at the moment.

    There is fairly good model consensus at the moment for a low pressure system to pass close to or over Ireland around Thursday 26th.

    It could bring some heavy rain for most areas, (perhaps very heavy at times in some places) and winds could be quite blustery at times around the coast.

    12Z ECM :

    ejygy9.gif

    12Z GFS :

    6gg1tt.png

    12Z GEM :

    33w2ln8.png

    UKMO FAX :

    dpv1b6.gif


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Latest ECM as Maq points out looks interesting. If it verifies anything like it is showing then maybe a potant triple point moving close to Ireland?

    My rough estimation of where the frontal zone lies late next week on the ECM:

    125022.jpg

    Such a set up could bring with it a small embedded thunder risk but here I am, ramping it up and getting carried away again! *slaps myself in the face, twice*


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Wet and Busty? That'll do


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    23uc6yw.png

    1043jeu.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Latest yr.no rainfall prediction has 63mm of rain falling in my Co. Galway town on Thursday:

    http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Galway/Tuam/long.html

    seems a fairly similar story across the country.

    Only a computer output based on the ECMWF run so 100% unlikely but it does seem that the models think this potential has a bit a punch at this early stage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Latest yr.no rainfall prediction has 63mm of rain falling in my Co. Galway town on Thursday:

    Crazy. I'm sure that will change before Thursday. What did you get on the day of the big rain last Nov? About 50mm?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 48,124 ✭✭✭✭km79


    stop that is scary:eek:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Crazy. I'm sure that will change before Thursday. What did you get on the day of the big rain last Nov? About 50mm?

    Wettest midnight to midnight total here Maq last November just over 30mm, which was nothing special. The rain here in November was more of a persistant feature rather than anything consistantly heavy, although Galway city had over 60mm in a 24hr period at one stage. :)

    Edit, the rain here last november taken while bringing the mutt for a walk:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixhu_2KPV0Y&feature=related


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,124 ✭✭✭✭km79


    if this thing comes off will cause havoc


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    km79 wrote: »
    if this thing comes off will cause havoc

    I wouldn't worry about it, the rain almost certainly won't be that bad. Chances are it will probably just be a miserable day! Should have a better idea of how it will be by Monday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 101 ✭✭fishmahboi


    I wouldn't worry about it, the rain almost certainly won't be that bad. Chances are it will probably just be a miserable day! Should have a better idea of how it will be by Monday.

    I agree or this system could end up being like the other 2 systems that occured on monday and thursday that were supposed to bring heavy rainfall (well there was some heavy rainfall in the west on thursday night, but monday was a mostly drizzly night)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    fishmahboi wrote: »
    I agree or this system could end up being like the other 2 systems that occured on monday and thursday that were supposed to bring heavy rainfall (well there was some heavy rainfall in the west on thursday night, but monday was a mostly drizzly night)

    Yep, it is all just spectulation at the moment, it couldn't possibly be anything else at this stage. I think as a feature though it could be interesting to monitor how (and if) it develops, and how it will or will not effect Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Looking a bit windier on the 0Z GFS as it crosses Ireland :

    jzist3.gif

    0Z ECM :

    fnbklt.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora




  • Registered Users Posts: 48,124 ✭✭✭✭km79


    most websites have now rowed back on original predictions for galway area now saying 20 - 30 mm for 24 hr period weds night to thurs night


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Gusts up to around 70 kph inland on that run :

    30xk7l5.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,615 ✭✭✭GSF


    Gusts up to around 70 kph inland on that run :

    30xk7l5.gif

    Enough to cause disruptions to flights from Dublin airport on Friday?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    GSF wrote: »
    Enough to cause disruptions to flights from Dublin airport on Friday?

    No, I wouldn't think there would be any disruption like that from this.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    The RTE forcast this morning made no mention of this excitment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    mike65 wrote: »
    The RTE forcast this morning made no mention of this excitment.

    It's not likely to be very exciting. There's just not much else interesting happening weatherwise at the moment...


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    1zoavt0.png


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    This will be the scene around our coasts!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    UKMO Fax, low approaching from the southwest :

    o0oytf.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    0Z GFS as the low crosses Ireland. Windy around the coasts :

    2uep6cx.gif

    Heavy rain :

    2i0t47o.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Holy Cow http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.html

    only after looking.

    WIll prob be High Pressure over Ireland that day once the excitement dies down. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Met Eireann outlook :
    Wednesday should start dry and bright with some hazy sunshine, but very wet and windy weather is set to develop over Munster in the morning. This will extend countrywide in the afternoon and early evening. Highs 14 to 18 C. That heavy and possibly thundery rain will persist overnight and also into Thursday. Some large falls of rain are possible with a risk of some local spot flooding. Winds will be strong and blustery and mainly southwest to west in direction


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    At present the Low runs to the Southeast of Ireland on Wednesday night and into Thursday according to the BBC

    Still wherever it hits will get a good deal of rain


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    pauldry wrote: »
    At present the Low runs to the Southeast of Ireland on Wednesday night and into Thursday according to the BBC

    Still wherever it hits will get a good deal of rain

    The UKMO has the low moving further south than the GFS, ECM is showing something similar now too. The heaviest rain could miss us if that pans out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7



    :D We relocated and left Donegal well ahead of that.;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,615 ✭✭✭GSF


    The ground must be getting close to saturation point now in some areas. Are there any stats available on that?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    GSF wrote: »
    The ground must be getting close to saturation point now in some areas. Are there any stats available on that?

    http://www.met.ie/agmet/default.asp


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