Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
21-08-2010, 19:51   #1
maquiladora
Registered User
 
maquiladora's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,121
Wet & Blustery (Second Half Of Next Week)

Thought this deserved it's own thread because discussing it in the Hurricanes thread is giving it way too much credit and there really isn't much else to talk about at the moment.

There is fairly good model consensus at the moment for a low pressure system to pass close to or over Ireland around Thursday 26th.

It could bring some heavy rain for most areas, (perhaps very heavy at times in some places) and winds could be quite blustery at times around the coast.

12Z ECM :



12Z GFS :



12Z GEM :



UKMO FAX :

maquiladora is offline  
Thanks from:
Advertisement
21-08-2010, 20:18   #2
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,142
Latest ECM as Maq points out looks interesting. If it verifies anything like it is showing then maybe a potant triple point moving close to Ireland?

My rough estimation of where the frontal zone lies late next week on the ECM:



Such a set up could bring with it a small embedded thunder risk but here I am, ramping it up and getting carried away again! *slaps myself in the face, twice*
Attached Images
File Type: jpg ECM 12z thurs 12z.jpg (242.3 KB, 650 views)
Deep Easterly is offline  
Thanks from:
21-08-2010, 20:23   #3
 
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 87,892
Wet and Busty? That'll do
mike65 is offline  
(2) thanks from:
21-08-2010, 21:38   #4
maquiladora
Registered User
 
maquiladora's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,121


maquiladora is offline  
21-08-2010, 21:53   #5
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,142
Latest yr.no rainfall prediction has 63mm of rain falling in my Co. Galway town on Thursday:

http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Galway/Tuam/long.html

seems a fairly similar story across the country.

Only a computer output based on the ECMWF run so 100% unlikely but it does seem that the models think this potential has a bit a punch at this early stage.
Deep Easterly is offline  
Advertisement
21-08-2010, 22:08   #6
maquiladora
Registered User
 
maquiladora's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deep Easterly View Post
Latest yr.no rainfall prediction has 63mm of rain falling in my Co. Galway town on Thursday:
Crazy. I'm sure that will change before Thursday. What did you get on the day of the big rain last Nov? About 50mm?
maquiladora is offline  
21-08-2010, 22:11   #7
km79
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 39,099
stop that is scary
km79 is offline  
21-08-2010, 22:17   #8
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by maquiladora View Post
Crazy. I'm sure that will change before Thursday. What did you get on the day of the big rain last Nov? About 50mm?
Wettest midnight to midnight total here Maq last November just over 30mm, which was nothing special. The rain here in November was more of a persistant feature rather than anything consistantly heavy, although Galway city had over 60mm in a 24hr period at one stage.

Edit, the rain here last november taken while bringing the mutt for a walk:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixhu_...eature=related

Last edited by Deep Easterly; 21-08-2010 at 22:29.
Deep Easterly is offline  
(3) thanks from:
21-08-2010, 22:20   #9
km79
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 39,099
if this thing comes off will cause havoc
km79 is offline  
Advertisement
21-08-2010, 23:53   #10
maquiladora
Registered User
 
maquiladora's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,121
Quote:
Originally Posted by km79 View Post
if this thing comes off will cause havoc
I wouldn't worry about it, the rain almost certainly won't be that bad. Chances are it will probably just be a miserable day! Should have a better idea of how it will be by Monday.
maquiladora is offline  
Thanks from:
22-08-2010, 00:10   #11
fishmahboi
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by maquiladora View Post
I wouldn't worry about it, the rain almost certainly won't be that bad. Chances are it will probably just be a miserable day! Should have a better idea of how it will be by Monday.
I agree or this system could end up being like the other 2 systems that occured on monday and thursday that were supposed to bring heavy rainfall (well there was some heavy rainfall in the west on thursday night, but monday was a mostly drizzly night)
fishmahboi is offline  
22-08-2010, 01:01   #12
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by fishmahboi View Post
I agree or this system could end up being like the other 2 systems that occured on monday and thursday that were supposed to bring heavy rainfall (well there was some heavy rainfall in the west on thursday night, but monday was a mostly drizzly night)
Yep, it is all just spectulation at the moment, it couldn't possibly be anything else at this stage. I think as a feature though it could be interesting to monitor how (and if) it develops, and how it will or will not effect Ireland.
Deep Easterly is offline  
22-08-2010, 10:10   #13
maquiladora
Registered User
 
maquiladora's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,121
Looking a bit windier on the 0Z GFS as it crosses Ireland :



0Z ECM :

maquiladora is offline  
Thanks from:
22-08-2010, 11:52   #14
maquiladora
Registered User
 
maquiladora's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 11,121
06Z GFS is ridiculous.

115mm of rain in 24 hours for Donegal.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

Don't worry, it probably won't happen.
maquiladora is offline  
22-08-2010, 12:01   #15
km79
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 39,099
most websites have now rowed back on original predictions for galway area now saying 20 - 30 mm for 24 hr period weds night to thurs night
km79 is offline  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet