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23-02-2010, 22:13   #1
 
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Potential Storm - Sunday 28th Feb

The models are in good agreement about the prospects of a deep storm system coming near to Ireland some time on Sunday. It could possibly reach 960hPa and has the potential to cause damage should it hold its strength on reaching us.

At the moment the upper pattern is characterised by a deep trough stretching northeast-southwest through the north Atlantic down as far as 30-35N. A series of depressions will form on its eastern flank this week, all following a similar northeasterly track through northern France and the low countries. On Friday, upper divergence in the right rear quadrant and left front quadrant of two jet streaks near Madeira lead to sharp pressure falls at the surface, forming a rapidly deepening low pressure system tracking from Madeira northeastwards towards Portugal and the Bay of Biscay.







While some differences do exists between the models on the lowest pressure, there is good agreement on the general track it will take, clipping northern Iberia, through the Bay of Biscay and towards Brittany and southern England. However, there is a rule of thumb called the Rosenbloom Rule, that states that a rapidly deepening storm system will follow a track left of the track forecast by the models. This would put the storm on a more westerly track towards Ireland. The models have it reaching its lowest pressure of around 965hPa, with the ECMWF the most progressive solution, having it still at 962hPa in the English Channel. But with the Rosenbloom Rule, the storm will take a more westerly track away from the effects of terrain, therefore possibly sustaining its strength as it reaches Ireland. This could bring 45 knot sustained winds, with gusts above 70 knots, to its easterly flank as it moves northwards. If the storm centre were to pass near Cork, southeastern coastal districts could be liable to structural damage and coastal flooding, with storms surge and channeling effects in St George's Channel.




With high baroclinicity and upper QG forcing, there is also the potential of substantial precipitation for many areas, most probably in the form of rain, as the system would be occluding on reaching Ireland.

Definitely one to watch in the coming days.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg Storm1.jpg (159.5 KB, 37 views)
File Type: jpg Storm2.jpg (157.9 KB, 1545 views)
File Type: jpg StormJet.jpg (151.6 KB, 1552 views)
File Type: jpg StormECMWF.jpg (85.6 KB, 20 views)

Last edited by Su Campu; 24-02-2010 at 07:48.
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23-02-2010, 23:33   #2
Danno
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Looks Nasty, I wonder will there be much cold air around to turn the precip to snow, and creating a strong thermal gradient, thus feeding the storm, now this would keep Pat from Tuam happy, a massive wind storm and snow all at once. I must stop dreaming.
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23-02-2010, 23:37   #3
 
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Will be cold Danno. all of this will change in the meantime, for better or for worse

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24-02-2010, 00:09   #4
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I'd take snow over a bad storm that could cause structural damage anyday....
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24-02-2010, 10:44   #5
 
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An interesting 48hr chart by the US NWS, valid 00Z Friday, showing the rapidly intensifying storm near Madeira, with potential hurricane force surface winds

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24-02-2010, 11:43   #6
 
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I'd take snow over a bad storm that could cause structural damage anyday....

I'd rather if the summer would just come instead. any snow that falls will melt quickly, so the sooner the spring arrives the better. At least the rain is warmer then
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24-02-2010, 12:16   #7
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Sounds interesting for us, although those hurricane force surface winds are probably the last thing Madeira needs.

This winter has been notable - for me anyway - for the lack of howling winds.

Weatherwise I love a good storm, that's the beauty of Ireland's weather, it can always throw up something exciting and dramatic.
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24-02-2010, 12:21   #8
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Quote:
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Weatherwise I love a good storm, that's the beauty of Ireland's weather, it can always throw up something exciting and dramatic.
'cept a decent bit of powder it seems
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24-02-2010, 12:43   #9
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'cept a decent bit of powder it seems
Sometimes it can H2U - it may tease and flirt with us, but that's the fun of the chase, it was easy we'd tire of it.
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24-02-2010, 13:39   #10
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Looks like missing us thankfully.
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24-02-2010, 13:45   #11
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i think you're right snow ghost. if we we were getting snowfall of 4- 8 inches regularly we wouldn't appreciate the snowfall as much. certainly more people would begin to see it as a nuisance. that said while i enjoy the chase i hope it ends sooner rather than later and we end up with a siginifacnt snow event in the next few years. assuming i don't kick in the bucket, i'd love to experience what new york is set to experience, over the next few days, just once in my lifetime! yes, i could go to colder climates for a snowfest holiday, but it just isn't the same as seeing it pile up in your own backyard!

As for the storm, if this tracks in over France there is going to be widespread destruction and loss of life. The storms that track in over france are nearly always severe.
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24-02-2010, 14:08   #12
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Too true Nacho - that which is commonplace becomes banal... and what you're saying about needing the snow in Ireland rather than travelling abroad for it.
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24-02-2010, 16:35   #13
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The latest 12Z UKMO Guidance takes the rather vigirous depression to our Southeast with a transient ridge to the variable North. Light Northeasterly winds develop over Ireland while the fairly vigirous development moves through the English channel, quite possibly causing some destruction in that region.



I think this development may herald the start of a pattern change going forward, with the start of a more HP dominated influence with potential blocking developing to the NNE & NE.

SA
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24-02-2010, 16:38   #14
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Originally Posted by Snowaddict View Post

I think this development may herald the start of a pattern change going forward, with the start of a more HP dominated influence with potential blocking developing to the NNE & NE.

SA
When you say a pattern change , would you expect it to be come milder or would HP blocking keep the warm air away from us ?
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24-02-2010, 17:57   #15
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The old saying goes... if March comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb
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