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Potential Storm - Sunday 28th Feb

  • 23-02-2010 10:13pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    The models are in good agreement about the prospects of a deep storm system coming near to Ireland some time on Sunday. It could possibly reach 960hPa and has the potential to cause damage should it hold its strength on reaching us.

    At the moment the upper pattern is characterised by a deep trough stretching northeast-southwest through the north Atlantic down as far as 30-35N. A series of depressions will form on its eastern flank this week, all following a similar northeasterly track through northern France and the low countries. On Friday, upper divergence in the right rear quadrant and left front quadrant of two jet streaks near Madeira lead to sharp pressure falls at the surface, forming a rapidly deepening low pressure system tracking from Madeira northeastwards towards Portugal and the Bay of Biscay.

    106037.jpg



    106036.jpg

    While some differences do exists between the models on the lowest pressure, there is good agreement on the general track it will take, clipping northern Iberia, through the Bay of Biscay and towards Brittany and southern England. However, there is a rule of thumb called the Rosenbloom Rule, that states that a rapidly deepening storm system will follow a track left of the track forecast by the models. This would put the storm on a more westerly track towards Ireland. The models have it reaching its lowest pressure of around 965hPa, with the ECMWF the most progressive solution, having it still at 962hPa in the English Channel. But with the Rosenbloom Rule, the storm will take a more westerly track away from the effects of terrain, therefore possibly sustaining its strength as it reaches Ireland. This could bring 45 knot sustained winds, with gusts above 70 knots, to its easterly flank as it moves northwards. If the storm centre were to pass near Cork, southeastern coastal districts could be liable to structural damage and coastal flooding, with storms surge and channeling effects in St George's Channel.

    100223_1200_120.png


    With high baroclinicity and upper QG forcing, there is also the potential of substantial precipitation for many areas, most probably in the form of rain, as the system would be occluding on reaching Ireland.

    Definitely one to watch in the coming days. :)


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Looks Nasty, I wonder will there be much cold air around to turn the precip to snow, and creating a strong thermal gradient, thus feeding the storm, now this would keep Pat from Tuam happy, a massive wind storm and snow all at once. I must stop dreaming. :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Will be cold Danno. all of this will change in the meantime, for better or for worse
    h850t850eu.png
    ECM0-120.GIF?23-12


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    I'd take snow over a bad storm that could cause structural damage anyday....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    An interesting 48hr chart by the US NWS, valid 00Z Friday, showing the rapidly intensifying storm near Madeira, with potential hurricane force surface winds

    10022600_2_2400.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Min wrote: »
    I'd take snow over a bad storm that could cause structural damage anyday....


    I'd rather if the summer would just come instead. :D any snow that falls will melt quickly, so the sooner the spring arrives the better. At least the rain is warmer then :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    Sounds interesting for us, although those hurricane force surface winds are probably the last thing Madeira needs.

    This winter has been notable - for me anyway - for the lack of howling winds.

    Weatherwise I love a good storm, that's the beauty of Ireland's weather, it can always throw up something exciting and dramatic.


  • Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    snow ghost wrote: »
    Weatherwise I love a good storm, that's the beauty of Ireland's weather, it can always throw up something exciting and dramatic.

    'cept a decent bit of powder it seems :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    'cept a decent bit of powder it seems :rolleyes:

    Sometimes it can H2U - it may tease and flirt with us, but that's the fun of the chase, it was easy we'd tire of it. ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Looks like missing us thankfully.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    i think you're right snow ghost. if we we were getting snowfall of 4- 8 inches regularly we wouldn't appreciate the snowfall as much. certainly more people would begin to see it as a nuisance. that said while i enjoy the chase i hope it ends sooner rather than later and we end up with a siginifacnt snow event in the next few years. assuming i don't kick in the bucket, i'd love to experience what new york is set to experience, over the next few days, just once in my lifetime! yes, i could go to colder climates for a snowfest holiday, but it just isn't the same as seeing it pile up in your own backyard!

    As for the storm, if this tracks in over France there is going to be widespread destruction and loss of life. The storms that track in over france are nearly always severe.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    Too true Nacho - that which is commonplace becomes banal... and what you're saying about needing the snow in Ireland rather than travelling abroad for it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    The latest 12Z UKMO Guidance takes the rather vigirous depression to our Southeast with a transient ridge to the variable North. Light Northeasterly winds develop over Ireland while the fairly vigirous development moves through the English channel, quite possibly causing some destruction in that region.

    UW96-21.GIF?24-17

    I think this development may herald the start of a pattern change going forward, with the start of a more HP dominated influence with potential blocking developing to the NNE & NE.

    SA :)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Snowaddict wrote: »

    I think this development may herald the start of a pattern change going forward, with the start of a more HP dominated influence with potential blocking developing to the NNE & NE.

    SA :)

    When you say a pattern change , would you expect it to be come milder or would HP blocking keep the warm air away from us ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 157 ✭✭North Cork


    The old saying goes... if March comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    This is a classic cyclonic bomb situation, with the pressure set to fall by some 26hPa (997 to 971hPa) in 24hrs, as the surface low centre lies just ahead of the upper trough early Saturday. Certainly looks like unfortunate Madeira, and all of continental Portugal, are in for some serious weather Friday and Saturday.


    10022612_2_2412.gif

    There's not much change in the main models regarding the track, with the 12Z ECMWF slowing it down slightly compared to yesterday's run. The NOGAPS is the crazy outlier today, with a 956hPa low right over the Wexford coast 12Z Sunday. :eek: An unlikely outcome, but the track is more in line with what I was saying last night re the Rosenbloom Rule. We'll see if the other models gradually start to correct their track westwards in the next day or so.

    10022812_2412.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yes Su it could cause problems if it decide to follow nogaps plans.

    nogaps-0-90.png?24-18


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    North Cork wrote: »
    The old saying goes... if March comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb

    I have yet to see that happen in the actual though, although my weather love mood tends to switch off in March as it is probably the most boring month weatherwise in Ireland.


    I have not looked at any model for the last couple of days and have only just briefly glanced at the ECM. A good storm would be appreciated very much but seen no sign of any storm on the model I looked at just now. I just see a continuation of the same banal, inactive, empty void we have put over the last couple of months. Hopefully though a serious upgrade in later runs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Senor Valor usually gets things right.

    2010022412H084_UK00_SFC.gif

    It looks like it's going to get rough around Biscay but it'll miss us. Let's hope he's right this time as well.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    Please God we won't get that storm, if we do I hope Deep Easterly is left without electricity for a few days to get over his love of "a good storm" :P

    I saw the Christmas eve storm tear the roof off two separate buildings as if the roofing was a piece of paper, the phone was out for about 7 days and the electricity was gone for most of Christmas, it was scary bad.

    I pity any region that gets this storm as it looks real nasty and of course I don't wish any bad on DE, he can have a localised bad storm to keep him happy or move to Brittany for the weekend :p


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Min wrote: »
    Please God we won't get that storm, if we do I hope Deep Easterly is left without electricity for a few days to get over his love of "a good storm" :P

    I saw the Christmas eve storm tear the roof off two separate buildings as if the roofing was a piece of paper, the phone was out for about 7 days and the electricity was gone for most of Christmas, it was scary bad.

    I pity any region that gets this storm as it looks real nasty and of course I don't wish any bad on DE, he can have a localised bad storm to keep him happy or move to Brittany for the weekend :p


    something good comes out of everything though . . .the christmas eve storm of 97 provided about 5 years firewood!!!

    Hope that storm doesnt come though , i hate rain and wind :(

    but if it falls as snow . . .???


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    can understand not wanting a storm& but personaly i love a good storm,wind howling,rain belting,pressure dropping,throw in a bit of thunder&lighting to top off:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    This was from yesterday morning,i missed it,
    Mentions the dangerous storm towards the end.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T04l3j58XXE


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    redsunset wrote: »
    This was from yesterday morning,i missed it,
    Mentions the dangerous storm towards the end.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T04l3j58XXE

    A vicious storm he says, where it hits there is no doubt it will kill people.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,027 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Hope that storm doesnt come though , i hate rain and wind :(

    but if it falls as snow . . .???

    The much sought after thundersnow?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    delw wrote: »
    can understand not wanting a storm& but personaly i love a good storm,wind howling,rain belting,pressure dropping,throw in a bit of thunder&lighting to top off:D

    Depends where you live ;)

    Not so great in rural area's when it's a wide open fields around your house and you're always last on ESB's list to be fixed :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 57 ✭✭NoodleMc


    Yikes - my uncle is in Madeira (arrived on Monday) and my sister is due to go on Sunday! Better tell her to stay indoors!


  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    Overnight Guidance is consistent on the track of the main depression, taking it the Southeast of Ireland & removing the risk of associated disruption from it, however there is still scope for last minute changes in relation to it's track.

    However, as mentioned a while back on the thread, it's quite possible now that this development is heralding a pattern change to a more HP dominated influence with a subsequent Easterly flow. While there have been tentative signs of this over the past few days on NWP Guidance, the trend is developing to quite an extent overnight on the latest Guidance.

    Into the medium term, EMCWF 00Z Operational, GEM 00Z Operational & GFS 00Z Operational all model a deep cold pool being advected across the UK & Ireland with an Easterly flow. UKMO @ T+120 - T+144 also shows a gradually developing Easterly evolution with a blocking High to the NE/NNE.

    It's getting a little late in the year now, but there is just about enough time left, if the cold is deep enough, for a decent Easterly flow, but it must take place within the timeframe modelled overnight & not any later as solar power will be increasing on a daily basis..

    In summary, this significant development will highly likely herald a pattern change to a more HP dominated influence, that could well lead to a cold pattern developing during early March.

    It's certainly something to watch going forward.

    SA :)




  • Snowaddict wrote: »
    Into the medium term, EMCWF 00Z Operational, GEM 00Z Operational & GFS 00Z Operational all model a deep cold pool being advected across the UK & Ireland with an Easterly flow. UKMO @ T+120 - T+144 also shows a gradually developing Easterly evolution with a blocking High to the NE/NNE.

    It's getting a little late in the year now, but there is just about enough time left, if the cold is deep enough, for a decent Easterly flow, but it must take place within the timeframe modelled overnight & not any later as solar power will be increasing on a daily basis..

    In summary, this significant development will highly likely herald a pattern change to a more HP dominated influence, that could well lead to a cold pattern developing during early March.

    It's certainly something to watch going forward.

    SA :)
    For what it's worth,in my lifetime,I've seen disruptive blizzards on st patricks day in Ireland ,with the snow falling as far south as cork.
    I've also seen a week long freezing spell in march,as good as the one we had in january with more snow though [a good 8 inches in Arklow on the coast that lasted the week and sub zero!]
    I won't tell you the year but I suspect it was before most posting here were born :o
    So yes anythings possible with the right syn optics.

    p.s it was an Easterly iirc


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    GFZ 06Z at T72 shows the storm well away from us, has risen from 976 to 984 also.

    h850t850eu.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Has paddy1 gone off to France? is that why he hasn't been posting much of late;)


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