The models are in good agreement about the prospects of a deep storm system coming near to Ireland some time on Sunday. It could possibly reach 960hPa and has the potential to cause damage should it hold its strength on reaching us.
At the moment the upper pattern is characterised by a deep trough stretching northeast-southwest through the north Atlantic down as far as 30-35N. A series of depressions will form on its eastern flank this week, all following a similar northeasterly track through northern France and the low countries. On Friday, upper divergence in the right rear quadrant and left front quadrant of two jet streaks near Madeira lead to sharp pressure falls at the surface, forming a rapidly deepening low pressure system tracking from Madeira northeastwards towards Portugal and the Bay of Biscay.
While some differences do exists between the models on the lowest pressure, there is good agreement on the general track it will take, clipping northern Iberia, through the Bay of Biscay and towards Brittany and southern England. However, there is a rule of thumb called the Rosenbloom Rule, that states that a rapidly deepening storm system will follow a track left of the track forecast by the models. This would put the storm on a more westerly track towards Ireland. The models have it reaching its lowest pressure of around 965hPa, with the ECMWF the most progressive solution, having it still at 962hPa in the English Channel. But with the Rosenbloom Rule, the storm will take a more westerly track away from the effects of terrain, therefore possibly sustaining its strength as it reaches Ireland. This could bring 45 knot sustained winds, with gusts above 70 knots, to its easterly flank as it moves northwards. If the storm centre were to pass near Cork, southeastern coastal districts could be liable to structural damage and coastal flooding, with storms surge and channeling effects in St George's Channel.
With high baroclinicity and upper QG forcing, there is also the potential of substantial precipitation for many areas, most probably in the form of rain, as the system would be occluding on reaching Ireland.
Definitely one to watch in the coming days.