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Monday onward, frost, ice returns - snow later

  • 06-02-2010 1:14am
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Looks like that extra salt will come in handy. Our weather will increasingly come from the East through the early days of next week, then it is likely a Northeasterly will set in and then a Northerly. So the best of three different worlds. Turning increasingly cold and later in the week snow is likely especially in Eastern parts but this is likely to transfer to more Northern areas by the weekend. The models agree on a gradual retrogression of High Pressure into Greenland. There is also a risk of more substantial snow in the Southern half of the country at some stage through the week as the Atlantic energy may put up a fight. But that is just a risk. The next week looks exceptionally cold with snow at times, the East most at risk as Easterly winds resume. Cold everywhere. Very cold later next week.


    Discuss the prospects....


«13456714

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,875 ✭✭✭ShoulderChip


    I think we will have some scattered showers on tuesday evening to wednesday morning but mostly a muggy balmy introduction to spring week


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I think we will have some scattered showers on tuesday evening to wednesday morning but mostly a muggy balmy introduction to spring week

    Will you have the deck chairs ready?;)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Looks like that extra salt will come in handy. Our weather will increasingly come from the East through the early days of next week, then it is likely a Northeasterly will set in and then a Northerly. So the best of three different worlds. Turning increasingly cold and later in the week snow is likely especially in Eastern parts but this is likely to transfer to more Northern areas by the weekend. The models agree on a gradual retrogression of High Pressure into Greenland. There is also a risk of more substantial snow in the Southern half of the country at some stage through the week as the Atlantic energy may put up a fight. But that is just a risk.


    Discuss the prospects....

    Are we officially in ramp mode???? Didn't honestly think we would see another cold spell of note this winter but it looks like next week it will happen. Bring it on i say :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    met.ie morning update:

    "OUTLOOK FOR THE WHOLE COUNTRY: (as opposed to what?? :p)

    The outlook is for cold weather with predominately easterly winds. Most places will have a good deal of dry bright weather, but frosty nights with icy patches and also some fog at times.

    SUNDAY NIGHT: There will be a fresh East to southeast breeze across Munster on Sunday night, keeping frost to a minimum and where there may be some cloudy wet weather in places also. Dry and clear with somewhat slacker winds elsewhere with some frost.

    MONDAY: Still probably cloudy in some parts of the south and west on Monday with some rain at times mainly near coasts but even these areas will be dry much of the time and the fresh easterly winds will fall off light. Largely dry and bright for the rest of the country, with some sunny periods, but cold and there may be some light wintry showers near the east coast. Sub zero temperatures with hard frost Monday night with some fog possibly also.

    TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:Cold bright and mainly dry days with sunny spells and afternoon temperatures of just 3 to 6 degrees, some light wintry showers are possible on exposed eastern and northern coasts. Very cold at night , with sub zero temperatures and as low as -5 or -6 degrees in places with very severe frosts and icy conditions with some freezing fog possible in places also."


    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/


    Meanwhile, on this morning's ECM, looks pretty much as expected over the next 6 or 7 days. Slack & anticyclonic:

    104520.gif
    Nothing to get me excited at least.

    The best charts reserved in the far out stages as usual. This is what I want to see:

    104521.gif

    Ridge from main anticyclone over Iceland extending into central/east Europe, cutting off cool maritime Arctic air and ensure a more deeply continental feed. Temps may not be all that spectacular, but if that chart was to verify, humidity levels would drop off significantly and it would be very very dry. Oddly, there has been very little rain here in the west all winter, yet the roads have been constantly wet and mank (when they were not frozen). A dry continental is what is needed. Some beautiful colour's in the sky as well should the above chart come to pass.

    Please, please let it be so. :o


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    nothing on the charts getting me to excited :(
    now way out in FI,next saterday on,did you see the charts :eek:
    would be lovely but way out as i said,seems to be the norm this winter,it always seems to be a week away
    anyway just to wet our appetite even further....


    ukprec.png


    ukprec.png


    ukmintemp.png


    h850t850eu.png


    all the way out to tuesday :eek:


    ukprec.png


    ukmintemp.png


    h850t850eu.png


    sure what do i no,but im a dreamer :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    Good morning everyone :)

    General Outlook

    We have seen some Exceptionally consistent overnight Multi-Model Guidance with excellent Medium Term agreement - something not seen in quite some time. At the moment, it appears that ECMWF is leading the way on the general evolution, but a blend of ECMWF/UKMO/GFS/UKMO is likely into the Medium Term.

    It should be noted that from T+132 - T+144 onwards now, quite exceptional Northern Blocking is indicated. The tend at the moment appears to be to take the main core of blocking even further North with each and every evolution.

    Winds eminate from an Easterly/Northeasterly direction throughout. For the coming week as a whole, conditions are likely to remain cold to very cold at times, with signs of even deeper cold arriving towards Day 5/6.

    While there will be a risk a light sleet & snow flurries/showers in Eastern areas during later on Monday & Tuesday, the pattern will generally be Anticyclonic Easterly, with limited snowfall potential in general.

    100206_0000_66.png

    During the midweek period, conditions may become somewhat even more slack, but with winds still generally Northeasterly, as the main core of blocking becomes situated to the immediate North. In addition, at this point, even more extensive Northward Warm Air Advection is indicated, setting up a prolonged blocking pattern all across the variable North.

    100206_0000_102.png

    Towards Friday onwards, there are some continuing indications that a more cyclonic Easterly pattern may well become established, with an enhanced threat of snow showers in Eastern areas in particular. Rather more deep cold is advected across the country at this point also, with main blocking centres over Scandinavia and Iceland.

    100206_0000_156.png

    Day 7 - Day 10

    NWP Guidance also remains very consistent for this period, with a marked signal for extreme Northern Blocking to develop & a solid retrogression phase of the main blocking centres towards Greenland. As a result, an even more unstable Northeasterly to Easterly flow becomes established across the UK & Ireland, with an enhanced threat of snowfall once again. Conditions remain very cold throughout with a deep continental sourced airflow.

    In addition to the recent warming event at the 30mb level, a renewed phase of warming is now taking place, which provides even further support for potential Northern Blocking towads Day 10 - Day 15:

    30mb Temperatre Trend

    pole30_nh.gif

    Between Day 10 & Day 15, we are likely to see a more West Based -NAO evolution become established, with the main core of blocking transferring into Western Greenland & the Canadian Arctic. This also allows for a more cyclonic cold pattern to become established & is something to monitor over the next several days.

    Summary

    In summary then, there are solid indications of a cold spell lasting through to Day 5 at least this morning. There is the risk of light wintry showers in Eastern areas on Monday & Tuesday, but nothing significant is expected at present. The midweek period will see conditions falling even slacker, with light Northeasterly to Easterly winds & further overnight sharp to severe frosts. Towards Day 5/6 onwards, a somewhat more cyclonic Easterly/Northeasterly pattern is indicated, with exceptional Northern Blocking throughout, as indicated by the 6-10 Day CPC 500mb Height Anomoly Chart:

    CPC 500mb Height Anomoly - Through to Day 10

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

    SA :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Mark, can I just say that your analysis continues to be just fantastic. Very scientific and rooted firmly in objectivity and logic, yet at the same time, easy to absorb and enjoyable when read.

    Your calm confidence, often set against childish hysteria and tantrums (often from myself :o) is just a pleasure to injest intellectually. Nice one!




  • I suspect SA will be getting a fix before this spell is out...that is to say I'm quietly more confident than I was.
    I'm reserving full judgment until later though given recent flip flops.

    I'd be reasonably confident of some snow flurries in the East by midweek though.
    I'm not so sure at sea level where most people live that any light stuff that comes in off the sea in the flow in the early part of the week will be more than drizzle though.It's not going to be cold enough.

    For historic examples of what can fall though in very cold anticyclonic easterly air,look back at the '85 charts posted last night.
    That was very cold air though at 850 level which is not what we will see monday/Tuesday.
    In '85 by the way,that low of the south iirc came up north and did fall as snow in Dublin before dying out into a rain/sleet mix but stayed entirely snow just inland and a bit higher eg rain sleet at ucd while snow continued at the top of mt Anville at Goatstown [mt anville might be just a 100 metres higher than ucd and only a mile away]

    Anyhow I digress..


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Hello folks,

    After the disappointment of the non-cold spell last week, it looks like something from the east might be finally brewing up.

    I would not be too versed in how to read the met charts you guys post here (although they look very pretty!), however my confidence has increased this morning having read our fellow poster MT Cranium's forecast for the week ahead.

    I found his posts to be very accurate during the recent freezing weather and in general his forecasts are quite on the money.

    Here is what MT has to say about weather later in the week:

    TUESDAY to THURSDAY, Ireland will remain in this "transitional" cold air mass near a ridge of high pressure, and this will result in cold but not exceptional temperatures near -3 C overnight and near +4 C in the daytimes, with variable skies, some sunshine and some cloudy periods. There could be local snow flurries in parts of Ulster and the Dublin and Wicklow coastal areas, as winds will generally be NE 10-25 mph.

    FRIDAY and next weekend, the colder air from further east will finally be released and flow out over Ireland to bring even colder weather and some risk of accumulating snows.


    I would say the coming week to ten days might be interesting :)

    Derek


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Mark, can I just say that your analysis continues to be just fantastic. Very scientific and rooted firmly in objectivity and logic, yet at the same time, easy to absorb and enjoyable when read.

    Your calm confidence, often set against childish hysteria and tantrums (often from myself :o) is just a pleasure to injest intellectually. Nice one!

    very well put paddy1. Also given he is emotionally invested in the outcome it's all the more impressive the way he can remain calm and objective. Quite a contrast to what you see over on netweather;)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 873 ✭✭✭InKonspikuou2


    very well put paddy1. Also given he is emotionally invested in the outcome it's all the more impressive the way he can remain calm and objective. Quite a contrast to what you see over on netweather;)

    For all you know he could be dancing on his keyboard and typing with his feet.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭greysides


    In addition to the recent warming event at the 30mb level, a renewed phase of warming is now taking place, which provides even further support for potential Northern Blocking towads Day 10 - Day 15:

    Could someone explain this please.

    I understand that the 30mb level is the height where the air is at that pressure but it seems counter-intuitive that warm air up there is a pointer to cold air down here.:o

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert

    The ultimate purpose of debate is not to produce consensus. It's to promote critical thinking.

    Adam Grant



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    greysides wrote: »
    Could someone explain this please.

    I understand that the 30mb level is the height where the air is at that pressure but it seems counter-intuitive that warm air up there is a pointer to cold air down here.:o


    Look here

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055728070


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Firstly I want to also praise Snowaddict's analysis of what can be realistically be expected for the week - Some cold days ahead for the next 5 days, with the outlook pointing to more cold weather. Albeit still rather dry:(

    The amount of warm air feeding into the Greenland region is impressive and that 30mb chart is going to look remarkable as the week progresses. But the pattern of the blocking is a bit confusing for me. On GFS, That significant Siberian High seems to do nothing to help our cold-loving cause except to link up enough to drag the cold air brought down by the european cyclone over to here. See that attached file.

    And despite the significant WAA, the ECM and GFS seem to have very similar views on height rises over Greenland. Nothing significant until hints inside FI. The northern arm of the jet stream still won't play ball over the medium term on GFS or on ECMWF too, given by how similar they portray the evolution.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yep signals are definately on for a strong retrogression.

    Then allowing cyclonic systems to approach from our south west that could cause blizzard conditions if angle of attack was correct and we were still in a very cold airmass.

    Very far away but could be interesting to see if it materialises to give a last hurrah of extensive snowfall to end our winter.The end.:D


    forecast_3_nh.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    For all you know he could be dancing on his keyboard and typing with his feet.

    It wouldn't surprise me if he was in fact doing this.
    Is there no end to his talents.

    anyway, it'll be interesting to see how far to the northwest the high moves and what will be its pressure reading.

    could it all fall into place, with repeated frontal snow ensuing, or will it all go horribly wrong??


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭irishdub14


    It wouldn't surprise me if he was in fact doing this.
    Is there no end to his talents.

    anyway, it'll be interesting to see how far to the northwest the high moves and what will be its pressure reading.

    could it all fall into place, with repeated frontal snow ensuing, or will it all go horribly wrong??

    Ermmm, i'll go with horribly wrong......... :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    Thanks for all the comments everyone :)

    It's very difficult not to get over-excited when looking at some of the charts on display, but it's always best to downplay any potential until being at least moderately confident - Greater than 60% confidence in the risk of an event.

    Another very solid GFS 12Z Operational evolution, which has 850mb temperatures of -8 across many parts from later on Monday and during Tuesday - with the threat of some light sleet or snow showers moving in off the Irish Sea.

    It's also noteworthy that towards Day 5, a deep cold pool is advected across the country, with 850mb temperatures of -9 to -11 moving in from the East. With pressure falling slightly, such developments would offer more potential for snow showers into Eastern areas, which fits in with threat of a slightly more cyclonic Easterly pattern developing later in the week.

    However it must be stressed that this is currently at Day 5.

    Overall however, a solid, increasingly cold spell lasting for a minimum of 6 Days is indicated on this latest evolution, with an increasing threat of snow showers towards Day 5, especially in the East.

    Rather extensive Northern Blocking is also in evidence between Day 5 & Day 6.

    SA :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    I'd better go and check to make sure the Ballinrobe & Tuam snow shields are still working as they had a hard December and early Jan, But worked fantastically well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    greysides wrote: »
    Could someone explain this please.

    I understand that the 30mb level is the height where the air is at that pressure but it seems counter-intuitive that warm air up there is a pointer to cold air down here.:o

    It's easier to picture it if you think of the middle atmosphere like water swirling anticlockwise around in a bucket.

    In wintertime, there is a largescale westerly (zonal) flow around the middle latitudes, called the Polar Vortex. It is caused by the extremely cold polar airmass, which causes low geopotential heights over the high latitudes, similar to the low level of the water in the centre of the bucket. Around the sides of the bucket the water level is higher. As this water is allowed to swirl, this pattern continues, as we would expect. It's the same with the atmosphere - the difference in geopotential heights (due to different airmass temperatures) causes these westerly winds to continue throughout the winter.

    Now imagine what would happen if you stuck your hand down into one edge of the swirling water. The pattern will be disrupted, with the water being deflected inwards towards the centre of the bucket, causing the water level there to rise. Behind your hand, the water will flow backwards towards the edge, and then continue on as before. So there's an omega-shaped blocking in the water, with part of it now flowing in the opposite direction to the mean flow. It's the same with the atmosphere, except this time instead of your hand we have warm air being advected northwards and upwards into the high latitudes and lower stratosphere, forming this omega blocking situation. Behind the blocking the winds are more northeasterly or easterly, and after a few days, these winds extend down to the troposphere too, dragging cold polar airmasses to lower latitudes, like we saw in early January.

    We keep an eye on the temperatures of the stratosphere to see if warming is occuring, cos if it is then it may lead to the blocking pattern above, and a cold spell for someone a week or two down the road.

    Note though that around April all bets are off, as the polar stratosphere is now warming anyway due to increased solar radiation, which is why there is no polar vortex in the summer.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Again we look to be several hundred miles too far west for anything to happen in the first half of the week. Anticyclone bang right over us, so even with the cold lower levels, upper level capping will limit or totally stamp out any precipitive convection up to Wednesday.
    Not so for the North Sea though, as conditions look ripe for a polar low (there he goes again with his Polar Lows!! :rolleyes: ), with a cold pool of -40°C H500 moving southwards from Norway late Tuesday. Polar Low or not, eastern parts of Britain look set for some real disruption again, with some major showers looking definite.

    96_27.gif

    I like this next chart for Thursday though , with the upper levels finally destabilising enough for some decent convection to develop over the Irish Sea.

    126_27.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    Something is definitely going down with the weather... I was up all night last night and there were birds singing and making strange noises throughout the night, very strange... they were also acting crazy all day today.

    After noticing the bizarre animal behaviour last night, and just coming here reading this, I'm beginning to wonder if there is actually something in this animal forecast model, that Donegal Postman could be on to something, there appears to be a definite correlation.

    Bring on the snow! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭200motels


    Snowaddict wrote: »
    Thanks for all the comments everyone :)

    It's very difficult not to get over-excited when looking at some of the charts on display, but it's always best to downplay any potential until being at least moderately confident - Greater than 60% confidence in the risk of an event.

    Another very solid GFS 12Z Operational evolution, which has 850mb temperatures of -8 across many parts from later on Monday and during Tuesday - with the threat of some light sleet or snow showers moving in off the Irish Sea.

    It's also noteworthy that towards Day 5, a deep cold pool is advected across the country, with 850mb temperatures of -9 to -11 moving in from the East. With pressure falling slightly, such developments would offer more potential for snow showers into Eastern areas, which fits in with threat of a slightly more cyclonic Easterly pattern developing later in the week.

    However it must be stressed that this is currently at Day 5.

    Overall however, a solid, increasingly cold spell lasting for a minimum of 6 Days is indicated on this latest evolution, with an increasing threat of snow showers towards Day 5, especially in the East.

    Rather extensive Northern Blocking is also in evidence between Day 5 & Day 6.

    SA :)
    Excellent as usual, any ideas of how long this cold spell will last?


  • Registered Users Posts: 251 ✭✭dbyrne


    If only there was a chance of the 71cm of snow they have just had in the US...

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8501246.stm

    quick question, why dont any of these big storms that hit the us travel across and hit us on a regular basis?

    http://content.usatoday.com/weather/CityForecast.htm?LocationID=USNJ0552&ps=L1


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Down to the Jetstream and a warm atlantic, if they did hit us would be as rain


  • Registered Users Posts: 251 ✭✭dbyrne


    but even when they hit the USA as heavy rain, storms etc they do not travel with the currents and remain strong


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,278 ✭✭✭arctictree


    dbyrne wrote: »
    If only there was a chance of the 71cm of snow they have just had in the US...

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8501246.stm

    quick question, why dont any of these big storms that hit the us travel across and hit us on a regular basis?

    http://content.usatoday.com/weather/CityForecast.htm?LocationID=USNJ0552&ps=L1

    I'd say that amount is possible here but we would need a heavy Atlantic storm stalling over us for 24 - 48 hrs with cold air in place, a very rare event. A few weeks ago we had 14 inches of snow here in Wicklow in a 12 hr period. Probably much more at higher elevations (I'm at 250M).

    A


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea



    Big freeze: Northern Ireland to miss out


    By Clare Weir
    Saturday, 6 February 2010





    Ulster householders can express a sigh of relief as it emerges that Northern Ireland will escape the worst of a new big freeze and more snow showers expected to sweep into the UK next week. However, a cold snap is still on the way for some.

    A spokesman for the Met Office says that while this weekend will be warmer than usual for February, temperatures will drop below freezing overnight.

    “It’s not going to be too bad, with temperatures over the weekend actually quite warm for this time of year,” he said.

    “It is at night times that temperatures will slide towards the middle of the week, things will get colder after Wednesday, dropping to -2 or -3 at night, even in inland areas and Belfast — so there will be freezing temperatures but no big freeze for Northern Ireland as such, compared to what we have already experienced.

    “Towards the end of the week there will be some sleet and snow but the worst of this will be in southern and eastern areas of the UK. Southern, central and eastern areas will get more of this type of weather pattern but it will not be as bad as the weather seen in December and January and there are no severe weather warnings in place so far for the next fortnight in Northern Ireland.”

    For many across Northern Ireland, the clean-up after the big freeze continues after frozen and burst pipes cause misery for hundreds of residents.

    Read more: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/weather/big-freeze-northern-ireland-to-miss-out-14670241.html#ixzz0enMWwl64


    Hmm belfast telegraph are talking a bit too soon, I dont think we will miss out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    I really can't see how donegal will experience much wintry weather from a not very cold continental easterly. The Met Office are making a safe call at least up to the beginning of Thursday.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    i can't wait forthe next super thread on the snow, with 500 people on the weather forum at 1 in the morning!!! :D good times . . . :)


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