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06-02-2010, 01:14   #1
darkman2
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Monday onward, frost, ice returns - snow later

Looks like that extra salt will come in handy. Our weather will increasingly come from the East through the early days of next week, then it is likely a Northeasterly will set in and then a Northerly. So the best of three different worlds. Turning increasingly cold and later in the week snow is likely especially in Eastern parts but this is likely to transfer to more Northern areas by the weekend. The models agree on a gradual retrogression of High Pressure into Greenland. There is also a risk of more substantial snow in the Southern half of the country at some stage through the week as the Atlantic energy may put up a fight. But that is just a risk. The next week looks exceptionally cold with snow at times, the East most at risk as Easterly winds resume. Cold everywhere. Very cold later next week.


Discuss the prospects....

Last edited by darkman2; 06-02-2010 at 04:38.
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06-02-2010, 01:15   #2
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I think we will have some scattered showers on tuesday evening to wednesday morning but mostly a muggy balmy introduction to spring week
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06-02-2010, 01:37   #3
darkman2
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I think we will have some scattered showers on tuesday evening to wednesday morning but mostly a muggy balmy introduction to spring week
Will you have the deck chairs ready?
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06-02-2010, 03:23   #4
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Looks like that extra salt will come in handy. Our weather will increasingly come from the East through the early days of next week, then it is likely a Northeasterly will set in and then a Northerly. So the best of three different worlds. Turning increasingly cold and later in the week snow is likely especially in Eastern parts but this is likely to transfer to more Northern areas by the weekend. The models agree on a gradual retrogression of High Pressure into Greenland. There is also a risk of more substantial snow in the Southern half of the country at some stage through the week as the Atlantic energy may put up a fight. But that is just a risk.


Discuss the prospects....
Are we officially in ramp mode???? Didn't honestly think we would see another cold spell of note this winter but it looks like next week it will happen. Bring it on i say

Last edited by mickger844posts; 06-02-2010 at 03:30.
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06-02-2010, 08:34   #5
 
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met.ie morning update:

"OUTLOOK FOR THE WHOLE COUNTRY: (as opposed to what?? )

The outlook is for cold weather with predominately easterly winds. Most places will have a good deal of dry bright weather, but frosty nights with icy patches and also some fog at times.

SUNDAY NIGHT: There will be a fresh East to southeast breeze across Munster on Sunday night, keeping frost to a minimum and where there may be some cloudy wet weather in places also. Dry and clear with somewhat slacker winds elsewhere with some frost.

MONDAY: Still probably cloudy in some parts of the south and west on Monday with some rain at times mainly near coasts but even these areas will be dry much of the time and the fresh easterly winds will fall off light. Largely dry and bright for the rest of the country, with some sunny periods, but cold and there may be some light wintry showers near the east coast. Sub zero temperatures with hard frost Monday night with some fog possibly also.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:Cold bright and mainly dry days with sunny spells and afternoon temperatures of just 3 to 6 degrees, some light wintry showers are possible on exposed eastern and northern coasts. Very cold at night , with sub zero temperatures and as low as -5 or -6 degrees in places with very severe frosts and icy conditions with some freezing fog possible in places also."


http://www.met.ie/forecasts/


Meanwhile, on this morning's ECM, looks pretty much as expected over the next 6 or 7 days. Slack & anticyclonic:


Nothing to get me excited at least.

The best charts reserved in the far out stages as usual. This is what I want to see:



Ridge from main anticyclone over Iceland extending into central/east Europe, cutting off cool maritime Arctic air and ensure a more deeply continental feed. Temps may not be all that spectacular, but if that chart was to verify, humidity levels would drop off significantly and it would be very very dry. Oddly, there has been very little rain here in the west all winter, yet the roads have been constantly wet and mank (when they were not frozen). A dry continental is what is needed. Some beautiful colour's in the sky as well should the above chart come to pass.

Please, please let it be so.
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06-02-2010, 09:11   #6
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nothing on the charts getting me to excited
now way out in FI,next saterday on,did you see the charts
would be lovely but way out as i said,seems to be the norm this winter,it always seems to be a week away
anyway just to wet our appetite even further....














all the way out to tuesday











sure what do i no,but im a dreamer
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06-02-2010, 09:19   #7
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Cold Spell & Medium Term Outlook

Good morning everyone

General Outlook

We have seen some Exceptionally consistent overnight Multi-Model Guidance with excellent Medium Term agreement - something not seen in quite some time. At the moment, it appears that ECMWF is leading the way on the general evolution, but a blend of ECMWF/UKMO/GFS/UKMO is likely into the Medium Term.

It should be noted that from T+132 - T+144 onwards now, quite exceptional Northern Blocking is indicated. The tend at the moment appears to be to take the main core of blocking even further North with each and every evolution.

Winds eminate from an Easterly/Northeasterly direction throughout. For the coming week as a whole, conditions are likely to remain cold to very cold at times, with signs of even deeper cold arriving towards Day 5/6.

While there will be a risk a light sleet & snow flurries/showers in Eastern areas during later on Monday & Tuesday, the pattern will generally be Anticyclonic Easterly, with limited snowfall potential in general.



During the midweek period, conditions may become somewhat even more slack, but with winds still generally Northeasterly, as the main core of blocking becomes situated to the immediate North. In addition, at this point, even more extensive Northward Warm Air Advection is indicated, setting up a prolonged blocking pattern all across the variable North.



Towards Friday onwards, there are some continuing indications that a more cyclonic Easterly pattern may well become established, with an enhanced threat of snow showers in Eastern areas in particular. Rather more deep cold is advected across the country at this point also, with main blocking centres over Scandinavia and Iceland.



Day 7 - Day 10

NWP Guidance also remains very consistent for this period, with a marked signal for extreme Northern Blocking to develop & a solid retrogression phase of the main blocking centres towards Greenland. As a result, an even more unstable Northeasterly to Easterly flow becomes established across the UK & Ireland, with an enhanced threat of snowfall once again. Conditions remain very cold throughout with a deep continental sourced airflow.

In addition to the recent warming event at the 30mb level, a renewed phase of warming is now taking place, which provides even further support for potential Northern Blocking towads Day 10 - Day 15:

30mb Temperatre Trend



Between Day 10 & Day 15, we are likely to see a more West Based -NAO evolution become established, with the main core of blocking transferring into Western Greenland & the Canadian Arctic. This also allows for a more cyclonic cold pattern to become established & is something to monitor over the next several days.

Summary

In summary then, there are solid indications of a cold spell lasting through to Day 5 at least this morning. There is the risk of light wintry showers in Eastern areas on Monday & Tuesday, but nothing significant is expected at present. The midweek period will see conditions falling even slacker, with light Northeasterly to Easterly winds & further overnight sharp to severe frosts. Towards Day 5/6 onwards, a somewhat more cyclonic Easterly/Northeasterly pattern is indicated, with exceptional Northern Blocking throughout, as indicated by the 6-10 Day CPC 500mb Height Anomoly Chart:

CPC 500mb Height Anomoly - Through to Day 10

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/pre.../610day.03.gif

SA
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06-02-2010, 09:45   #8
 
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Mark, can I just say that your analysis continues to be just fantastic. Very scientific and rooted firmly in objectivity and logic, yet at the same time, easy to absorb and enjoyable when read.

Your calm confidence, often set against childish hysteria and tantrums (often from myself ) is just a pleasure to injest intellectually. Nice one!
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06-02-2010, 10:57   #9
 
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I suspect SA will be getting a fix before this spell is out...that is to say I'm quietly more confident than I was.
I'm reserving full judgment until later though given recent flip flops.

I'd be reasonably confident of some snow flurries in the East by midweek though.
I'm not so sure at sea level where most people live that any light stuff that comes in off the sea in the flow in the early part of the week will be more than drizzle though.It's not going to be cold enough.

For historic examples of what can fall though in very cold anticyclonic easterly air,look back at the '85 charts posted last night.
That was very cold air though at 850 level which is not what we will see monday/Tuesday.
In '85 by the way,that low of the south iirc came up north and did fall as snow in Dublin before dying out into a rain/sleet mix but stayed entirely snow just inland and a bit higher eg rain sleet at ucd while snow continued at the top of mt Anville at Goatstown [mt anville might be just a 100 metres higher than ucd and only a mile away]

Anyhow I digress..
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06-02-2010, 11:14   #10
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Hello folks,

After the disappointment of the non-cold spell last week, it looks like something from the east might be finally brewing up.

I would not be too versed in how to read the met charts you guys post here (although they look very pretty!), however my confidence has increased this morning having read our fellow poster MT Cranium's forecast for the week ahead.

I found his posts to be very accurate during the recent freezing weather and in general his forecasts are quite on the money.

Here is what MT has to say about weather later in the week:

TUESDAY to THURSDAY, Ireland will remain in this "transitional" cold air mass near a ridge of high pressure, and this will result in cold but not exceptional temperatures near -3 C overnight and near +4 C in the daytimes, with variable skies, some sunshine and some cloudy periods. There could be local snow flurries in parts of Ulster and the Dublin and Wicklow coastal areas, as winds will generally be NE 10-25 mph.

FRIDAY and next weekend, the colder air from further east will finally be released and flow out over Ireland to bring even colder weather and some risk of accumulating snows.


I would say the coming week to ten days might be interesting

Derek
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06-02-2010, 12:15   #11
nacho libre
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Originally Posted by Deep Easterly View Post
Mark, can I just say that your analysis continues to be just fantastic. Very scientific and rooted firmly in objectivity and logic, yet at the same time, easy to absorb and enjoyable when read.

Your calm confidence, often set against childish hysteria and tantrums (often from myself ) is just a pleasure to injest intellectually. Nice one!
very well put paddy1. Also given he is emotionally invested in the outcome it's all the more impressive the way he can remain calm and objective. Quite a contrast to what you see over on netweather
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06-02-2010, 12:25   #12
 
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very well put paddy1. Also given he is emotionally invested in the outcome it's all the more impressive the way he can remain calm and objective. Quite a contrast to what you see over on netweather
For all you know he could be dancing on his keyboard and typing with his feet.
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06-02-2010, 12:47   #13
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In addition to the recent warming event at the 30mb level, a renewed phase of warming is now taking place, which provides even further support for potential Northern Blocking towads Day 10 - Day 15:
Could someone explain this please.

I understand that the 30mb level is the height where the air is at that pressure but it seems counter-intuitive that warm air up there is a pointer to cold air down here.
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06-02-2010, 13:14   #14
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Could someone explain this please.

I understand that the 30mb level is the height where the air is at that pressure but it seems counter-intuitive that warm air up there is a pointer to cold air down here.

Look here

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2055728070
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06-02-2010, 13:32   #15
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Firstly I want to also praise Snowaddict's analysis of what can be realistically be expected for the week - Some cold days ahead for the next 5 days, with the outlook pointing to more cold weather. Albeit still rather dry

The amount of warm air feeding into the Greenland region is impressive and that 30mb chart is going to look remarkable as the week progresses. But the pattern of the blocking is a bit confusing for me. On GFS, That significant Siberian High seems to do nothing to help our cold-loving cause except to link up enough to drag the cold air brought down by the european cyclone over to here. See that attached file.

And despite the significant WAA, the ECM and GFS seem to have very similar views on height rises over Greenland. Nothing significant until hints inside FI. The northern arm of the jet stream still won't play ball over the medium term on GFS or on ECMWF too, given by how similar they portray the evolution.
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