Wednesday, 17 August, 2016
Forecasts for Ireland
ALERT for heavy rainfalls in western Galway and Mayo today, 30-50 mm with local flooding possible. Also, ALERT for scattered heavy rainfalls in some other parts of Connacht and midlands later today, 20-40 mm possible, isolated road flooding could develop. ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls Friday to Sunday (marginal on a day to day level but the cumulative amounts in some parts of inland southeast may reach 40 mm).
TODAY ... Heavy showers and some embedded thunderstorms slowly advancing further east, very heavy at times in western Galway and Mayo where 30-50 mm could cause flooding around places like Newport, Westport and Clifden ... some 20-40 mm falls possible in parts of midlands, inland southeast, watch for spot flooding on roadways there. Somewhat less rain likely in parts of central Munster and east Ulster, 5-15 mm, and the rain may not be very heavy in east coast counties until late afternoon or evening. There will be some sunny breaks in a few locations between these bands of showers, highs 18-20 C. Turning somewhat cooler in Atlantic coastal counties by afternoon as winds become light northerly there.
TONIGHT and THURSDAY (full moon 10:37 IST) ... Heavy showers or thunderstorms could develop around Dublin, Meath and east Ulster overnight while elsewhere, during the early morning hours, the heavy showers will likely diminish considerably, with overnight lows 10-13 C, then some sunny intervals may develop briefly tomorrow with highs 18-21 C before cloud increases from an advancing Atlantic low off to the southwest; this will begin to spread some rain into west Munster by evening.
FRIDAY ... Windy and wet, 20-30 mm rainfalls possible, winds east to southeast 40-70 km/hr, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C. Becoming foggy over hills by late in the day. It's not looking like a very good day for any outdoor activities.
SATURDAY ... Rain followed by scattered showers, strong winds shifting to southwest 40-70 km/hr as the Atlantic low drifts north through western counties (where winds may briefly pause as the centre passes), lows near 11 and highs 17 to 19 C, further rainfalls of 10-15 mm, heaviest around Kildare and Laois, west Wicklow.
SUNDAY ... Some minor improvements to mainly cloudy with isolated showers and winds falling off to moderate during the morning, lows near 10 C, then another pulse of heavier showers and gusty winds by late afternoon and evening (southwest 40-60 km/hr at times) with highs near 19 C. Some rainfalls of 10-20 mm by midnight.
MONDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, showers, highs near 18 C.
TUESDAY ... Breezy or windy, showers or intervals of rain, highs near 19 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Minor improvements later in the week but charts are showing another strong disturbance timed for about Saturday 27th that will move in from the south with possible heavy rainfalls. This could go either way as there is expected to be a surge of hot and humid air from the south heading for Britain with this system; if that were to shift west then parts of Ireland could get into very warm air for part of that period, a shift further east would move the heavier rain into western Britain instead. Then charts for the week of late August into early September show somewhat warmer weather as the jet stream shifts well to the north (but this could change too).
My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and warm with highs near 28 C.