Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Heavy rain in Midlands and East this evening, risk of lightning

2»

Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    SexVicar wrote: »
    Isn't that a bit presumptuous? There has been barely any sunshine and mostly overcast on the East Coast as well today as well and that was one of the indicators MT mentioned in his forecast last night. There just hasn't been the heating and convection needed for the spark you seem to be predicting. As well, the last GFS run changed where the majority of insatiability would be and it indicates more that the West/North Midlands will pick up the brunt of it into NI for this evening.

    Your forecasts are helpful, but you seem a bit overboard at times wishing for thunder (Not that thats a bad thing).

    Hi,

    Not presumptuous at all IMO. Embedded thundersorms are just as likely. We don't need sunshine hitting the ground to spark thunderstorms - with respect to MT (great forecaster that he is) that is a myth. All that is needed is humidity, a cold front, negative CAPE values and convenient collison of wind direction - squall lines and there is a very good chance of storms. You are partly right in that the siuation now is more condusive for land based convection which means that the more land traversed the greater the potential but it is not all land convection which has to be taken into account aswell.


    The latest GFS run is the same as the previous one 6 hours ago for the next 12hrs. Only minor alterations but nothing significant really.


    Also I did'nt say there will be thunderstorms btw - just that there is a good chance in certain areas. That's all anyone can say.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭Lumi


    Actually. you were spot on darkman2. There's been a fairly impressive thunderstorm in Moycullen in the last hour


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,351 ✭✭✭djhaxman


    Chucking it down in a big way here in Castleblayney, still no light show though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Would agree there is a slight risk of a severe storm in central to eastern Ireland this evening. Factors are all rather marginal for severe weather but conducive for thunder and lightning (the counties now most likely to see further lightning would be generally east of a line from Lough Neagh to Athlone to Waterford, and if anything marginally severe develops I would say look for that around Laois, Carlow and Kildare.)

    If this system had been a little more dynamic and forced clearing (and greater heating) in the warm sector then we might have been seeing a squall line developing, and certainly some factors at play are marginally conducive for that, for example there is a fairly well-defined wind shear aloft, the central low pressure continues to deepen, albeit rather moderately, and the front is now approaching an area with better lift. So anyway, I imagine we will get half a dozen or more reports of thunder out of this from scattered locations as far north as possibly Down or Louth, and there is probably about a ten per cent chance of a marginally severe cell developing in the area outlined or nearby (not sure what Irish criteria for severe storms are, I am used to gusts to 100 km/hr, frequent lightning, hail greater than 2 cm, or rainfall of 25 mm an hour, the latter being possible here even if nothing else develops). As for a tornado which I saw being discussed somewhere, this situation does not look very conducive but you can't rule out a weak rope-style tornado if one of these cells made it to the limits I just outlined.

    Anyway, I am keeping an eye on the radar here until about 8 p.m. at least, and the lightning detection sites.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17 rd_milltown


    darkman2 wrote: »
    All that is needed is humidity, a cold front, negative CAPE values and convenient collison of wind direction - squall lines and there is a very good chance of storms.
    .

    Assume you meant positive CAPE?

    Newbie here, moved to Dublin about 3 months ago but spent June out of Ireland with work and holiday and therefore missed the good weather !! One thing I've noticed - and today is a prime example - is how much more humid it is here compared to London. Dublin Airport was reporting 18c with a dewpoint of 17c earlier, very humid !

    Richard


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,452 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Plenty of localised flooding here in North Tipp, is that the worst of it over?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    owenc wrote: »
    Yes the bbc show big massive green spots coming over me so maybe some thunder storms tonight, but that rain on the radar dosen't look too heavy. Lets hope so it would get rid of the boring weather.


    Im afraid this isnt confined to the midlands and east as the thread title suggests . Very heavy floods here in Donegal, and its very dark.
    The BBC radar got it spot on , showing some of the heaviest downpours would be in the northwest.
    This is the heaviest rain of the year so far.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    Pangea wrote: »
    Im afraid this isnt confined to the midlands and east as the thread title suggests . Very heavy floods here in Donegal, and its very dark.
    The BBC radar got it spot on , showing some of the heaviest downpours would be in the northwest.
    This is the heaviest rain of the year so far.

    Yep same here and the heavy rain has started again its like torrential rain and it lasts ages, its a real pity theres no thunder infact i'm really surprised there is none!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    owenc wrote: »
    Yep same here and the heavy rain has started again its like torrential rain and it lasts ages, its a real pity theres no thunder infact i'm really surprised there is none!
    It is torrential rain here , its still bucketing down, my driveway is like a river. :eek:


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    Pangea wrote: »
    It is torrential rain here , its still bucketing down, my driveway is like a river. :eek:

    Same though its slowing down now, it'll be gone at about 11/ 11.30. Imagine the rivers in the morning, the last time this happened my river (and any other river in this area.) overflowed near me and filled all the fields up to the top (but it was only about four fields). EDIT: guess what! Them ones over in england are getting thunder and lightening after getting that weather, i can't believe that, first they get a heatwave and now they steal our thunderstorms!:mad:


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭jprboy


    SexVicar wrote: »
    As well, the last GFS run changed where the majority of insatiability would be and it indicates more that the West/North Midlands will pick up the brunt of it into NI for this evening.

    Oooooerrrrrr, vicar ! Mojo detector ??!! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Very stormy here now , when i look outside its hard to believe its july.

    Cyclonic variable winds, becoming west to northwest, will reach force 6 or 7 overnight on all Irish coasts.
    Issued at 23:00 on 10-Jul-2010


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,219 ✭✭✭hellboy99


    Winds picking up here over the last hour, WNW 30 - 40+km/h.


Advertisement