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Dublin Bay South By-Election

13567…38

Comments

  • #62
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,780 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    They will pick Byrne, but shes politically weak and anonymous.

    Eamon Ryan will be cursing Eoghan Murphy (probably calling him a stinky poo poo head), because whatever the Greens decide to do here is damaging to them and their obvious growing schism.


  • #63
    golfball37
    Registered Users Posts: 4,509 ✭✭✭golfball37


    Despite Eamon’s vote I don’t think there’s 2 seats there for Greens in a GE. If big Jim gets the FF leader job then he’ll be safe. Always at least one FG there too.


  • #64
    KevRossi
    Registered Users Posts: 4,376 ✭✭✭KevRossi


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    They will pick Byrne, but shes politically weak and anonymous.

    .

    But in that way she's a good candidate for the GP. She's well known in her ward, easy on the eye, good speaker and won't get elected but won't destroy the GP vote either.

    They don't want a TD elected here, it means two running next time out, they run the risk of splitting the vote and neither her nor Eamon Ryan getting in.

    There are other parties like SF or FF who probably aren't too keen on winning the seat as it means running two candidates next time out. I don't see any party winning two seats there in a GE at the next election. It's well split in demographics.


  • #65
    factnee
    Registered Users Posts: 186 ✭✭factnee


    Larbre34 wrote: »

    Eamon Ryan will be cursing Eoghan Murphy (probably calling him a stinky poo poo head),

    LOL - Brilliant


  • #66
    JPup
    Registered Users Posts: 908 ✭✭✭JPup


    I live in her ward and Byrne comes across as a good councillor. There aren’t two seats for the greens here so if she is the green candidate for the by election it might be more with an eye to building up her profile as Eamon’s eventual successor.

    I suspect he won’t be leader of the Greens after the next general election and that he would be unlikely to stand again in the following election if that’s the case given he’d be in his mid 60s by then most likely.


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  • #67
    coylemj
    Registered Users Posts: 25,312 ✭✭✭✭coylemj


    L1011 wrote: »
    If Byrne gets the GP nomination, I suspect that's the end of Chu in the Greens - Soc Dems (damaging to them if they take her...) or Independent.

    +1 Chu's problem is that she will finish her term in the Mansion House two years after the local elections (2019) and one year after a general election (2020). It's finally dawned on her that the timing means she can't make much electoral capital out of the job. Throw in the lockdown (no high visibility events) and her stint as Lord Mayor will return her little or no political dividend.

    Which probably explains why she decided to run for the Seanad and why she may throw her hat in the ring for the GP nomination for DBS. Her desperate scramble for exposure will be her downfall, she's making enemies at every turn.


  • #68
    mikemac2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,926 ✭✭✭mikemac2


    schmittel wrote: »
    Do candidates for the by election actually have to live in the constituency?

    I get it makes sense for them to do so, but is there an actual law (like in the UK) that to stand as a candidate in a constituency you have to have an address within the constituency?

    By the gods I am shocked the Brits have such a rule

    Peter Mandelson of London ran for Hartlepool for no other reason then it was a "safe" seat.

    The Brits love to parachute candidates into an area they know nothing about but the colour of their rosette will see them elected

    There are faults with the Irish electoral system but parachuting candidates in is vigorously disapproved


  • #69
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users Posts: 15,279 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Get the sense the bould hazel will be lucky to secure a nomination let alone win the seat


  • #70
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,337 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    mikemac2 wrote: »
    By the gods I am shocked the Brits have such a rule

    Peter Mandelson of London ran for Hartlepool for no other reason then it was a "safe" seat.

    The Brits love to parachute candidates into an area they know nothing about but the colour of their rosette will see them elected

    There are faults with the Irish electoral system but parachuting candidates in is vigorously disapproved

    The big difference is that 'local' candidates can still run because of the multiple seat constituencies, while a UK parachutist displaces any locally selected candidates.


  • #71
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users Posts: 15,279 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    L1011 wrote: »
    I think Bacik does live in the constituency, at least if wikipedia is right (Portobello claimed) - but she definitely didn't live in Dublin Central that time and I suspect not DL either!

    Ivana B lives in portobello


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  • #72
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,780 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Chu refused to be drawn today on the speculation, but an announcement is expected tomorrow. Looks like it'll be down to herself V Byrne for the the nom. I don't think James Geoghegan will be afeared of either.


  • #73
    blackwhite
    Registered Users Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    Kate O'Connell remaining very quiet regarding seeking the FG nomination.
    Might be holding her fire until next GE when FG might have a run at two seats in the constituency again?


  • #74
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,780 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    blackwhite wrote: »
    Kate O'Connell remaining very quiet regarding seeking the FG nomination.
    Might be holding her fire until next GE when FG might have a run at two seats in the constituency again?

    My own suspicion is that shes probably done with it, for the moment anyway. Young family, busy business, not to mention the opprobrium she fielded while in the Dáil.

    I think she'd be in the Seanad otherwise.


  • #75
    blackwhite
    Registered Users Posts: 8,449 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    My own suspicion is that shes probably done with it, for the moment anyway. Young family, busy business, not to mention the opprobrium she fielded while in the Dáil.

    I think she'd be in the Seanad otherwise.

    She went after a Seanad nod at the time, and seemed fairly peed off when she wasn't nominated. Looked suspiciously like she was passed over in favour of those who hadn't been as vocally anti-Varadkar during the FG leadership campaign.

    I've a suspicion that following the Seanad snub she might wait for a change in leadership in FG before stepping forward again


  • #76
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Anybody got any insight on whether it is likely to be summer or autumn?

    Reckon that is a tough call for the government (FG).


  • #77
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,780 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    schmittel wrote: »
    Anybody got any insight on whether it is likely to be summer or autumn?

    Reckon that is a tough call for the government (FG).

    Won't be the summer anyway. With the pandemic abating, they'll be waiting as long as possible to hold a poll. Not to mind that turnout in summer is always poor.

    We could see a referendum date in October or early November for a number of outstanding matters, with the DBS by-election held on the same day.


  • #78
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Won't be the summer anyway. With the pandemic abating, they'll be waiting as long as possible to hold a poll. Not to mind that turnout in summer is always poor.

    That was my initial thinking but there was a piece in the Examiner suggesting they might go sooner rather than later:
    Sources within the party have surmised that Fine Gael's quick process may be due to a possible intention to call the election sooner rather than later, with August mooted as a possibility.

    I guess the logic would be if ever there was a year to buck the poor summer turnout trend, this would be it with no foreign travel! They might get a covid bounce if vaccinations largely complete and country open up again.

    Does higher turnout help or hinder FG chances?
    Larbre34 wrote: »
    We could see a referendum date in October or early November for a number of outstanding matters, with the DBS by-election held on the same day.

    What are the outstanding matters?


  • #79
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,523 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    schmittel wrote: »

    Does higher turnout help or hinder FG chances?

    I'd expect their voters to be more in the base that turn up regardless, with a higher turnout tending towards others.
    schmittel wrote: »
    What are the outstanding matters?

    "Womens place in the home" issues (that'll pass), voting age (that probably won't!), possibly a ban on privitasation of Irish Water (that'll pass), very slight chance of some emigrant voting rights (haven't seen polling on that)


  • #80
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    L1011 wrote: »
    I'd expect their voters to be more in the base that turn up regardless, with a higher turnout tending towards others.

    That would be my thinking too, maybe favouring them to call a summer election.


  • #81
    KevRossi
    Registered Users Posts: 4,376 ✭✭✭KevRossi


    Slightly off tangent, but this would be a good opportunity to trial early voting and expanded postal voting.

    Does this need new legislation, or can it be ordered by the Returning Officer for the constituency?


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  • #82
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,780 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    KevRossi wrote: »
    Slightly off tangent, but this would be a good opportunity to trial early voting and expanded postal voting.

    Does this need new legislation, or can it be ordered by the Returning Officer for the constituency?

    As someone who has worked elections for 22 years, I don't believe that is a good idea.

    The postal voting, perhaps, but not early voting. Having filled ballots sitting around for weeks on end is inherently bad for vote integrity, in my opinion.

    I'd almost be going the other way. This nonsense of 'coming home to vote' of non-residents, when they really had no right to do so, was a massive compromise of electoral law and that should be tightened up.


  • #83
    Oymyakon
    Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Oymyakon


    Seems a bit unfair that Non-Irish citizens who may have been living and working here for years don't get a vote in the generals, is this similar across the EU?


  • #84
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,337 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Oymyakon wrote: »
    Seems a bit unfair that Non-Irish citizens who may have been living and working here for years don't get a vote in the generals, is this similar across the EU?

    They do not vote in referendums or presidential elections either. Why would they? They can vote in local elections though, and stand in them too.


  • #85
    Oymyakon
    Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Oymyakon


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    They do not vote in referendums or presidential elections either. Why would they? They can vote in local elections though, and stand in them too.

    I can understand the reasons why they'd be unable to vote on constitutional matters, or on the election of the head of state, but I feel like they should be entitled to vote for a representative in the national parliament.


  • #86
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,337 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Oymyakon wrote: »
    I can understand the reasons why they'd be unable to vote on constitutional matters, or on the election of the head of state, but I feel like they should be entitled to vote for a representative in the national parliament.

    Why? There is no provision in the constitution for it.


  • #87
    tHE vAGGABOND
    Registered Users Posts: 6,686 ✭✭✭tHE vAGGABOND


    Why? There is no provision in the constitution for it.
    There should be - I know folks who have paid the top rate of tax for 10+ years, members of the GAA etc etc; yet have next to zero say at ballot box


  • #88
    Oymyakon
    Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Oymyakon


    Sam Russell wrote: »
    Why? There is no provision in the constitution for it.

    Which is fair enough, in which case I think we should have a referendum on it because I think it's unfair. (Sorry, off topic) I was also wondering if other EU countries have similar rules when it comes to the voting register.


  • #89
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,337 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    tHE vAGGABOND wrote: »
    There should be - I know folks who have paid the top rate of tax for 10+ years, members of the GAA etc etc; yet have next to zero say at ballot box

    Well, stand in the DBS bi-election with that as your policy. You only have to persuade the electorate of your view and get elected - then get the referendum accepted by the Dail. God luck with that.


  • #90
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,780 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    tHE vAGGABOND wrote: »
    There should be - I know folks who have paid the top rate of tax for 10+ years, members of the GAA etc etc; yet have next to zero say at ballot box

    Well if they've done all that, they're a bit slack in getting their citizenship, aren't they?

    Then they could vote in all the elections they fancied.


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  • #91
    KevRossi
    Registered Users Posts: 4,376 ✭✭✭KevRossi


    Oymyakon wrote: »
    Which is fair enough, in which case I think we should have a referendum on it because I think it's unfair. (Sorry, off topic) I was also wondering if other EU countries have similar rules when it comes to the voting register.

    It's a reciprocal arrangement. Any country is free to have that agreement with each other. So we can vote in Locals and EU elections in any EU country and vice versa.

    We have a separate agreement with the UK. They can vote in all common elections that we have, so Local and Dail. Not the Presidential as Queenie still sits on the throne and not in referenda as they don't have a Constitution that can be altered via popular vote.

    It has been mooted a couple of times that we get to vote in each other parliamentary elections in the EU-27 but I haven't heard about it in a long time.


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