FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58 · 02-08-2018 8:33pm

Will be watching the developing LP forecast for next Weds. Long way off ( met eireann saying forecast uncertain ) and could fill more or deepen, at the moment it is deepening over Ireland with a strong jet nearby .

The Jet big time in action next week keeping things changing quickly. Impossible to put times on anything but looks like it could get windy ( maybe to warning level ) and unsettled mid week, cooler by far especially if we get that airmass brought down from Greenland aided by the Jet. Could get a brief blast of warm SW'lys and another Low around the Weekend but at present kept off N of Scotland but it then tracks down the North Sea ending up around Scandinavia . Could end up anywhere as by that time it seems the Scandi High Pressure block is done and dusted.

The End of the ECM 12Z run showing ridging again in from the Azores HP. A long way off after a very uncertain week coming up.

Meteorite58 · 02-08-2018 8:46pm

Very changeable. It would be a brave person to call the end of the ECM run !

The GEM showing a LP near Ireland next weds but not as deep. GFS showing a LP off to our NW / N . GFS not pretty out into FI

bazlers · 02-08-2018 9:41pm

I can't see it been one way Atlantic traffic for the rest of the month. I would expect the Azores high to make a reappearance from the south west next 8 to 10 days time. Then Atlantic make another attack. Cycles of that nature.

Villain · 03-08-2018 3:07pm

Back to the FI charts and 06z GFS is watering down that breakdown and building ridge back!

The ECMWF 0z Clusters show the uncertainty mind

sryanbruen · 03-08-2018 6:34pm

GFS 12z a week today. Look at those rainfall totals to the east of England. This model is seriously having a meltdown 😂, no pun intended.

Artane2002 · 03-08-2018 6:42pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 12z a week today. Look at those rainfall totals to the east of England. This model is seriously having a meltdown 😂, no pun intended.

Meltdown at temperatures forecast between 10-14c :P? Just in case anyone believed those charts, these charts belong to the bin.

Meteorite58 · 03-08-2018 8:31pm

Very unusual LP / possible storm showing up on the GFS and the ECM this evening for the E coast of the UK next weekend. The Jet very much in action.

Artane2002 · 03-08-2018 8:39pm

That storm off the east coast of England on the ECM has a warm core. Wouldn't it technically be a subtropical storm then? (although SSTs are too low for that) I'm surprised that the ECM agrees with the GFS on this, we'll need more runs to support this outcome though.

168_mslp850uk.png?cb

tabby aspreme · 03-08-2018 10:42pm

From looking at those charts at the moment, am I correct in thinking there could be 100km northerly winds and 25-50 mm of rain next Friday, we're supposed to be having a party , with a marquee tent and BBQ, or would the worst of it be over by Friday evening

Artane2002 · 03-08-2018 10:59pm

tabby aspreme wrote: »

From looking at those charts at the moment, am I correct in thinking there could be 100km northerly winds and 25-50 mm of rain next Friday, we're supposed to be having a party , with a marquee tent and BBQ, or would the worst of it be over by Friday evening

A storm of this kind of intensity is unlikely at the moment. Of course maybe the likelihood could increase. It is really way too far out to know what it will be like. In case you aren't aware of what has been going on with the models lately, they are really unsure about what weather we'll be getting next week. They change every run. There's no true consistent signal at the moment. Stay tuned to Sryanbruen's forecast in the forecast thread. At the moment it looks like pretty much a repetition of the last week of July but that is subject to change

Harry Palmr · 03-08-2018 11:10pm

I've never seen a less convincing set of outlook models. Wouldn't trust any of them right now.

sryanbruen · 03-08-2018 11:26pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

Meltdown at temperatures forecast between 10-14c :P? Just in case anyone believed those charts, these charts belong to the bin.

I mean, look at the GFS 12z OP run (green line) on Norwich's (in East Anglia of England) GFS ensembles. Very very much an exceptionally wet outlier!

sryanbruen · 03-08-2018 11:30pm

And.... GFS 18z shows no such low/storm to the east of the UK next Friday.

sryanbruen · 04-08-2018 9:52am

GFS 0z also shows no North Sea storm..... in fact, warm and settled.

ECM 0z doesn't show it but it's not warm and settled like the GFS 18z and 0z for Friday 10th.

Meteorite58 · 04-08-2018 12:00pm

Yes the Low that was shown in yesterdays run has shifted ( and not as deep ) further into Europe on the latest run. What I'm picking up from the models is that they are grappling with various scenarios as the Strong Jet takes a Southerly route below Ireland and the UK and up into W Europe. Big steep thermal gradients which with minor fluctuations will show big changes by the models the further out . From the present run and based on the last few runs in general I am seeing overall unsettled weather next week into next weekend, cooler from midweek, possibly heavy thundery showers Weds and Thurs, warm interludes close to the weekend . Should have a decent amount of rain next week. The ECM 0Z finishes the week with a slack area of LP over Ireland . Wouldn't be surprised at a couple of unexpected patterns showing up on the models in the coming days given the unpredictable nature of the charts comming out at present. Makes it all the more interesting

[Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/CI4zPkI.png)

sryanbruen · 04-08-2018 12:05pm

ECM still shows barely any rain in the south and east over the next 7 days though.

Mr.Wemmick · 04-08-2018 12:07pm

Back and forth, working in Switzerland for years, and I have never known heat like it. The Swiss weather reports/forecast are not in agreement either, one is giving even a higher temps for next week.

No sign of the weather pattern breaking in main land Europe anytime soon, I take it?

I wish I was back in Ireland or on the west coast of Scotland.

Gonzo · 04-08-2018 1:35pm

hard to believe the June and early July heatwave is still holding on into the south-east of England, they've only had 1 or 2 days interruption at most from high temperatures with very little if any rain.

Looks like they will finally lose the heat there after Wednesday but even then there temperatures will only fall back to the low 20s.

It's really only Ireland and Scotland that has had any real impact from the Atlantic over the past 2 to 3 weeks.

Very unsure of how our own weather will pan out for the rest of August, but I think it will be more similar to what we've experienced over the past 2 weeks, just with lower temperatures in general.

Rainfall is looking quite low over the coming week especially in the east.

Cork Boy 53 · 04-08-2018 1:48pm

Gonzo wrote: »

hard to believe the June and early July heatwave is still holding on into the south-east of England, they've only had 1 or 2 days interruption at most from high temperatures with very little if any rain.

Looks like they will finally lose the heat there after Wednesday but even then there temperatures will only fall back to the low 20s.

It's really only Ireland and Scotland that has had any real impact from the Atlantic over the past 2 to 3 weeks.

Very unsure of how our own weather will pan out for the rest of August, but I think it will be more similar to what we've experienced over the past 2 weeks, just with lower temperatures in general.

Rainfall is looking quite low over the coming week especially in the east.

Not really that hard to believe. As I know from my own experience the south and southeast of England can in summer very often have a semi-continental type climate in contrast to the rest of the UK. They have certainly had that for most of this summer.

harr · 04-08-2018 2:37pm

I have friends who live in southeast England and generally they get very good summers. I have rarely visited them in summer months where the temps have been lower than 23c .. They get very good summers most years.

Harry Palmr · 04-08-2018 2:40pm

Sure it's like Ireland, here in the SSE we can have a much better summer (typically in terms of sun and dry rather than temps) than most of the country esp anywhere west of the Shannon. We'll never get the high numbers though, not that it's any loss as far as I'm concerned.

Meteorite58 · 04-08-2018 6:30pm

Worth keeping an eye on for next weekend to see if the remnants end up on our shores. Will it gain strength or just blend harmlessly into other weather systems.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1025733124850900992

Artane2002 · 04-08-2018 6:42pm

Here is what the models are showing for six days' time time:

UKMO
UW144-21.GIF?04-19

LP off to our northwest. This would mean quite wet and windy and if my estimates are correct, temperatures should be mainly in the mid teens, high teens possible further south.

GFS
gfs-0-144.png?12?12

It also looks wet but drier and less windy to the east. Very cool with temperatures widely in the low to mid teens.

I'm not going to overanalyse charts further out. It's better to look at trends rather than overanalysing them. From what I can see, the GFS 12z continues to be poor with plenty of rain and temperatures in the mid to high teens. Let's see what the next runs bring.

Meteorite58 · 05-08-2018 10:17am

A wet and windy chart for next Fri .This area of LP has been showing up the last few runs but tighter isobars on this run. Will evolve one way or the other no doubt. Looks like a large area Warm Sector sweeping over the country on Fri.

Meteorite58 · 05-08-2018 10:41am

At the moment the low pressure system looks like merging with the weather being forecast for next Fri. Could get stronger or weaker or change track. Time will tell. Could bring a lot of moisture with it.

NHC

sdanseo · 05-08-2018 2:41pm

120 hr probability of a tropical cyclone from that system is now 40%, twice what it was on Friday.

Meteorite58 · 06-08-2018 11:21am

Put this in here as just on and into the +120hrs .A bit off yet and some tweaks will take place but Fri into Sat looking like one of the wettest and windiest days for a long time especially Atlantic coastal counties. LP coming out of Greenland meeting warmer moist air coming up from lower Latitudes. Rainfall totals at present highest on the W side of the country. Could be widespread 20 -25mm for the W side of the country and higher along the SW , W and NW getting over 30mm perhaps. More clarity as the days go on. Winds gusting to about 80 km/h on coasts showing up the last few runs.

Elmer Blooker · 06-08-2018 7:50pm

There are very strong signals for a warm up mid month.

km79 · 06-08-2018 8:35pm

ooohhh baby

sryanbruen · 06-08-2018 10:05pm

Yeah, ECM clusters all signalling a settled trend as far out as day 12, just variations on where the high sits exactly. That high alignment is the factor on how warm it could get again (also the time of year in some cases).

In 1991, 28c was reached at the end of August and beginning of September. 29c was reached at the beginning of September 1906.

FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Summer/ Autumn 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST