Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
05-03-2021, 16:12   #7096
Hibernicis
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 605
Quote:
Originally Posted by tuisginideach View Post
And again!
That’s an amazing run. Congratulations.
Hibernicis is offline  
Thanks from:
Advertisement
05-03-2021, 16:17   #7097
Hibernicis
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 605
Quote:
Originally Posted by dxhound2005 View Post
The number of €50 prizes is 3,944 down from 4,388 in Feb. My prediction was miles off. I have some ideas about that, but it would need a separate post.
Very interesting. I had an idea something like that might happen. The number of prizes in February didn’t stack up based on any realistic valuation for the number of bonds outstanding at the end of January.
Hibernicis is offline  
(2) thanks from:
05-03-2021, 17:00   #7098
dxhound2005
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,842
I have decided to do a weekly post in March for the number of wins by some bonds under three months old, and put the results together after week 4. It won't be all the same bonds each week

Week 1. 30 million bonds AUO to AVR inclusive. Total wins 173, average per million 5.767. Highest AVD, AVO and AVQ 9 each. Lowest AUR 1. All prizes €50.

173 is 4.363% of the 3,965 prizes awarded. Projected wins for one million bonds (€6.25 million) for 52 draws. 5.767 x 52 = 299.884 prizes x €50 = €14,944.20. Divided by 62.5 gives expected return on €100K of €239.91, nearest €250.
dxhound2005 is offline  
(3) thanks from:
05-03-2021, 17:04   #7099
dxhound2005
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,842
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibernicis View Post
Very interesting. I had an idea something like that might happen. The number of prizes in February didn’t stack up based on any realistic valuation for the number of bonds outstanding at the end of January.
I should have realised that. Even taking the 5,803 weekly prizes in December and reducing that by 30% gives 4,062. And then there is the further complication of 1/11 months at different rates, and a restructuring of the big prizes.
dxhound2005 is offline  
(2) thanks from:
06-03-2021, 10:00   #7100
Agent Smyth
Registered User
 
Agent Smyth's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 676
Okay, Using my usual method to calculate the fund value at the end of each month and using dxhounds and abffs method of calculating the gross sales by using the newest bond number in the draws I came up with this

DateFund ValueGross Growth
01/12/20204,062,640,000 
01/01/20214,032,480,00049,202,852
01/02/20214,453,942,85781,542,362
01/03/20214,124,114,28581,437,131

Anyone any ideas ???

And a special thanks Hibernicis for showing us how to do tables

Last edited by Agent Smyth; 06-03-2021 at 10:05.
Agent Smyth is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Advertisement
06-03-2021, 10:39   #7101
dxhound2005
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,842
Using my snapshot of 30 million bonds winning 4.363% of the prizes, gives a fund value for 100% of the bonds = €4.2975 billion. If they were all €6.25. Add on a little bit for the bonds worth €6.35 and it is as near as dammit to €4.3 billion. One week is in no way reliable, but after four weeks a pattern might emerge.
dxhound2005 is offline  
Thanks from:
06-03-2021, 10:43   #7102
dxhound2005
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 14,842
Quote:
Originally Posted by tuisginideach View Post
It's certainly a record - on my history of PB wins!

Actually, the pattern is amazing - 8 X €50 over 6 consecutive weeks on this 'glitch'; July 2017 - 6 X €50 over 3 consecutive weeks (1, 3, 2); May 2016 - 5 X €50 over 4 consecutive weeks.
I would be interested in knowing how close together, or how far apart your winning numbers are. Would there be a subsection of numbers representing under €25K which won €100 or €150?
dxhound2005 is offline  
(2) thanks from:
06-03-2021, 23:18   #7103
tuisginideach
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 1,738
Interesting exercise!
In the July 2017 glitch, I won 6 X €50 in 3 consecutive weeks - four of the winning bonds came from the same batch and there was a difference of only 2943 between those 4 bonds.

22 Aug 2014 I won 2 X €50 from that same batch with a difference of 334 between them.

7 Sept 2018 - I won 2 X €50 from a different batch with a difference of 557 between them.
tuisginideach is offline  
(2) thanks from:
06-03-2021, 23:23   #7104
Thargor
Registered User
 
Thargor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 16,283
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrew Flexing View Post
New record @Hibernicis?
Ive had a 100k house deposit win nothing since last September!
Thargor is offline  
Advertisement
06-03-2021, 23:55   #7105
pbwinner
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 617
Winnings on 6th March 2021: €0
Last win 18th December 2020: €100
Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €3150
2011: €75 x 4 = €300
2012: €75 x 6 = €450
2013: €50 x 12 = €600
2014: €50 x 9 = €450
2015: €50 x 5 = €250
2016: €50 x 5 = €250
2017: €50 x 4 = €200
2018: €50 x 2 = €100
2019: €50 x 6 = €300
2020: €50 x 5 = €250
2021: €0
pbwinner is offline  
07-03-2021, 10:39   #7106
John arse
Registered User
 
John arse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thargor View Post
Ive had a 100k house deposit win nothing since last September!
yeah,i've 66k-nothing since july,no "luck" i guess.
John arse is offline  
(2) thanks from:
07-03-2021, 11:40   #7107
John arse
Registered User
 
John arse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thargor View Post
Ive had a 100k house deposit win nothing since last September!
so a word of caution if you're thinking of banging in 50 or a 100k,it isn't a bed of roses in prize bond land,huge dry spells.i'd be massively frustrated if i wasn't used to it!
John arse is offline  
(2) thanks from:
08-03-2021, 08:31   #7108
scheister
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,245
Quote:
Originally Posted by John arse View Post
so a word of caution if you're thinking of banging in 50 or a 100k,it isn't a bed of roses in prize bond land,huge dry spells.i'd be massively frustrated if i wasn't used to it!
The issue with law of averages it aint an exact sciene. You could have a long dry spell then win twice in two week.

I have €12,500 since Jan 20 and another batch of €12,500 from July 20 and no wins yet but i am sure it is coming any day now
scheister is offline  
08-03-2021, 11:16   #7109
John arse
Registered User
 
John arse's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by scheister View Post
The issue with law of averages it aint an exact sciene. You could have a long dry spell then win twice in two week.

I have €12,500 since Jan 20 and another batch of €12,500 from July 20 and no wins yet but i am sure it is coming any day now
yeah,in it nearly ten years now and used to it's vagaries at this stage.ah consistency and the law of averages eh?you're in one or two wins a year territory
there on "average" good luck for the future.

Last edited by John arse; 08-03-2021 at 11:23.
John arse is offline  
Thanks from:
10-03-2021, 11:16   #7110
abff
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 3,659
Had my first win in 2 months last Friday, so I've updated my table. I've also edited my data to allow for the fact that there are only 999,999 bonds per letter combination, not 1,000,000. Quite a lot of new bonds sold since the beginning of the year.

DateNew BondsPer Day
05/05/2017  
19/05/2017 103,539,691 7,395,692
02/06/2017 103,713,608 7,408,115
21/07/2017 312,307,380 6,373,620
01/09/2017 260,208,161 6,195,432
03/11/2017 363,631,083 5,771,922
08/12/2017 208,144,809 5,946,995
22/12/2017 103,826,840 7,416,203
12/01/2018 78,472,968 3,736,808
27/04/2018 676,274,174 6,440,706
28/09/2018 1,065,663,998 6,919,896
02/11/2018 207,647,554 5,932,787
01/02/2019 598,650,240 6,578,574
15/02/2019 103,331,219 7,380,801
08/03/2019 130,250,694 6,202,414
29/03/2019 129,777,682 6,179,890
05/04/2019 51,885,267 7,412,181
03/05/2019 156,394,156 5,585,506
31/05/2019 155,511,576 5,553,985
07/06/2019 26,072,415 3,724,631
14/06/2019 26,481,363 3,783,052
12/07/2019 155,662,741 5,559,384
03/01/2020 1,066,460,082 6,094,058
03/04/2020 806,211,665 8,859,469
24/04/2020 155,885,610 7,423,124
01/05/2020 52,134,834 7,447,833
08/05/2020 51,263,194 7,323,313
10/07/2020 520,030,794 8,254,457
24/07/2020 78,611,529 5,615,109
20/11/2020 1,014,012,705 8,521,115
23/12/2020 337,340,758 10,222,447
08/01/2021 78,432,523 4,902,033
05/03/2021 623,964,305 11,142,220

Last edited by abff; 10-03-2021 at 11:24.
abff is offline  
(4) thanks from:
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet