05032021, 16:12  #7096 
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05032021, 16:17  #7097 
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Very interesting. I had an idea something like that might happen. The number of prizes in February didn’t stack up based on any realistic valuation for the number of bonds outstanding at the end of January.

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05032021, 17:00  #7098 
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I have decided to do a weekly post in March for the number of wins by some bonds under three months old, and put the results together after week 4. It won't be all the same bonds each week
Week 1. 30 million bonds AUO to AVR inclusive. Total wins 173, average per million 5.767. Highest AVD, AVO and AVQ 9 each. Lowest AUR 1. All prizes €50. 173 is 4.363% of the 3,965 prizes awarded. Projected wins for one million bonds (€6.25 million) for 52 draws. 5.767 x 52 = 299.884 prizes x €50 = €14,944.20. Divided by 62.5 gives expected return on €100K of €239.91, nearest €250. 
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05032021, 17:04  #7099 
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I should have realised that. Even taking the 5,803 weekly prizes in December and reducing that by 30% gives 4,062. And then there is the further complication of 1/11 months at different rates, and a restructuring of the big prizes.

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06032021, 10:00  #7100  
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Okay, Using my usual method to calculate the fund value at the end of each month and using dxhounds and abffs method of calculating the gross sales by using the newest bond number in the draws I came up with this
Anyone any ideas ??? And a special thanks Hibernicis for showing us how to do tables Last edited by Agent Smyth; 06032021 at 10:05. 

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06032021, 10:39  #7101 
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Using my snapshot of 30 million bonds winning 4.363% of the prizes, gives a fund value for 100% of the bonds = €4.2975 billion. If they were all €6.25. Add on a little bit for the bonds worth €6.35 and it is as near as dammit to €4.3 billion. One week is in no way reliable, but after four weeks a pattern might emerge.

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06032021, 10:43  #7102 
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I would be interested in knowing how close together, or how far apart your winning numbers are. Would there be a subsection of numbers representing under €25K which won €100 or €150?

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06032021, 23:18  #7103 
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Interesting exercise!
In the July 2017 glitch, I won 6 X €50 in 3 consecutive weeks  four of the winning bonds came from the same batch and there was a difference of only 2943 between those 4 bonds. 22 Aug 2014 I won 2 X €50 from that same batch with a difference of 334 between them. 7 Sept 2018  I won 2 X €50 from a different batch with a difference of 557 between them. 
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06032021, 23:23  #7104 
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06032021, 23:55  #7105 
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Winnings on 6th March 2021: €0
Last win 18th December 2020: €100 Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €3150 2011: €75 x 4 = €300 2012: €75 x 6 = €450 2013: €50 x 12 = €600 2014: €50 x 9 = €450 2015: €50 x 5 = €250 2016: €50 x 5 = €250 2017: €50 x 4 = €200 2018: €50 x 2 = €100 2019: €50 x 6 = €300 2020: €50 x 5 = €250 2021: €0 
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07032021, 10:39  #7106 
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07032021, 11:40  #7107 
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08032021, 08:31  #7108  
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Quote:
I have €12,500 since Jan 20 and another batch of €12,500 from July 20 and no wins yet but i am sure it is coming any day now 

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08032021, 11:16  #7109  
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Quote:
there on "average" good luck for the future. Last edited by John arse; 08032021 at 11:23. 

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10032021, 11:16  #7110  
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Had my first win in 2 months last Friday, so I've updated my table. I've also edited my data to allow for the fact that there are only 999,999 bonds per letter combination, not 1,000,000. Quite a lot of new bonds sold since the beginning of the year.
Last edited by abff; 10032021 at 11:24. 

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