29 degrees possible May 28th.

squarecircles · 27-05-2020 11:25am #1

Temperatures into the high 20s possible tomorrow in the west of Connaught according to Met Eireann.

TOMORROW - Thursday 28th May

Tomorrow, Thursday will be a warm day and locally it will feel hot. It will be dry and sunny widely
and winds will be light to moderate from a southeast direction, locally fresh. Temperatures will be
25 degrees in the afternoon widely across the province,
and as high as 29 degrees in local spots in the west of the province.

could we reach 30? whats the record high for May in Ireland.

What ever happens tommorow looks sweltering in the west.Bring it on.

never_mind · 27-05-2020 11:27am

Tomorrow is the 28th but yes, BRING IT ON!

pauldry · 27-05-2020 11:40am

Wikipedia has 28.4c as the record for May though lots of Mays seem hot at the end

Gonzo · 27-05-2020 11:41am

I think 26 will probably be the max, maybe a 27C at Shannon Airport or Oak Park. Most of the models are going for 22 to 25C Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Oneiric 3 · 27-05-2020 12:16pm

I'd be surprised if it reached 29c tomorrow. EPS max for tomorrow only going for around a 26c:

So maybe a 27c or 28c (which I think is still pushing it) at best?

I haven't looked at what the Harmonie (which M.E refer too) is showing regarding tomorrow's temps, but it is worth remembering that this model really over estimated daily maxima during the June 2018 heatwave. At one point, it had me down for a 37c! Needless to say, that did not happen because it was never going to happen.

Danno · 27-05-2020 12:21pm

One thing to remember is the ground is very dry at the moment which means that the sunlight energy will heat the bottom few meters of the atmosphere easier than it would if the ground was damp - and thus soaking up the available energy. My 10am readings of the soil temperatures have seen a 1c increase this morning at 10cm depth. Yesterday it was 17c, this morning 18c. It is incredible to see how the soils are heating up now! The next day or two look prime for temperatures to hit 28c in selected areas, in my opinion!

highdef · 27-05-2020 12:57pm

Danno wrote: »

One thing to remember is the ground is very dry at the moment which means that the sunlight energy will heat the bottom few meters of the atmosphere easier than it would if the ground was damp - and thus soaking up the available energy. My 10am readings of the soil temperatures have seen a 1c increase this morning at 10cm depth. Yesterday it was 17c, this morning 18c. It is incredible to see how the soils are heating up now! The next day or two look prime for temperatures to hit 28c in selected areas, in my opinion!

Good point!!! The depth of dryness in the soil combined with the sun getting ever closer to maximum strength means that evenings and nights have the potential to be rather warm for the rest of the week, where there is little or no wind. Like a stone wall that has been absorbing heat from the sun all day which then radiates the heat after the sun sets, the ground is becoming deeply warm and that too will radiate the heat stored during the day but on a much much bigger scale, in an almost continental climate fashion.

SouthWesterly · 27-05-2020 12:58pm

I hate this forum. I'm working from home on a scorcher of a day and I can't even bring the office outside due to glare on the screen.

amadangomor · 27-05-2020 1:49pm

SouthWesterly wrote: »

I hate this forum. I'm working from home on a scorcher of a day and I can't even bring the office outside due to glare on the screen.

I presume turning the screen brightness up doesn't help?

If ok with the OP can we use this as a prediction thread for the highest peak and location?

I'm going with Claremorris on Thursday 28.0C

pauldry · 27-05-2020 2:37pm

Ok Newport 28.4c to equal Wikileaks

sryanbruen · 27-05-2020 2:44pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'd be surprised if it reached 29c tomorrow. EPS max for tomorrow only going for around a 26c:

So maybe a 27c or 28c (which I think is still pushing it) at best?

I haven't looked at what the Harmonie (which M.E refer too) is showing regarding tomorrow's temps, but it is worth remembering that this model really over estimated daily maxima during the June 2018 heatwave. At one point, it had me down for a 37c! Needless to say, that did not happen because it was never going to happen.

I remember 29C being forecast for 29 May 2018 from it.. we know how that turned out.

SouthWesterly · 27-05-2020 2:57pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

I remember 30C being forecast for 29 May 2018 from it.. we know how that turned out.

Remind us.

I go with 26.4 for North Kerry

Gonzo · 27-05-2020 3:06pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

I remember 30C being forecast for 29 May 2018 from it.. we know how that turned out.

it was almost comical except I wasn't laughing, close to +20C uppers and barely 15C on the ground!

edit: I was thinking about the June 2019 plume failure. From memory end of May 2018 wasn't that warm on the east coast with a stiff onshore wind.

sryanbruen · 27-05-2020 3:24pm

Gonzo wrote: »

it was almost comical except I wasn't laughing, close to +20C uppers and barely 15C on the ground!

edit: I was thinking about the June 2019 plume failure. From memory end of May 2018 wasn't that warm on the east coast with a stiff onshore wind.

That's a different kettle of fish :pac:

SouthWesterly wrote: »

Remind us.

I go with 26.4 for North Kerry

It was the only thing that suggested even close to 29C (correction on the 30C) on that day in May 2018 and the official highest temperature was 26.5C at Glenties, Donegal. Can't find the screenshot although it was posted in the Spring 2018 thread somewhere.

sryanbruen wrote: »

Nowhere else other than their temperature map suggests temperatures even close to 29c on Tuesday.

For instance, here's their old temperature map.

Also, their national forecast states high teens to low 20s at best.

Oneiric 3 · 27-05-2020 3:52pm

Danno wrote: »

One thing to remember is the ground is very dry at the moment which means that the sunlight energy will heat the bottom few meters of the atmosphere easier than it would if the ground was damp - and thus soaking up the available energy. My 10am readings of the soil temperatures have seen a 1c increase this morning at 10cm depth. Yesterday it was 17c, this morning 18c. It is incredible to see how the soils are heating up now! The next day or two look prime for temperatures to hit 28c in selected areas, in my opinion!

Washed the concrete path that runs along the back of my house this morning, and it is still wet, suggesting that out of the sun (which the path has been all day) drying is actually quite poor today.

I think one thing to consider for tomorrow temp potential is that pressure will be declining to the east, which could mean that a fair breeze could be springing up during the day which could prevent temps from rising as high as the forecast 29c. Forecast chart for tomorrow around the time, or shortly before, temps are expected to peak:

During the 3 days of 30c + back in late June 2018, it also got very breezy during the afternoon, but the air mass was drier and the sun stronger which would have allowed temps to climb as high as they did during that spell.

All up for grabs tomorrow me thinks. I'm sceptical but who knows. Also, seems to be a bit of shear going on tomorrow so chance of a surprise shower bubbling up if temps do climb sufficiently?

Oneiric 3 · 27-05-2020 3:59pm

Met Eireann's 'Yesterday's Weather' report for that day Syran:

And their badly missed weather map showing the set up:

davo2001 · 27-05-2020 4:04pm

Got up to 26.4 for me at my weather station today, oddly enough, not an overly sunny day, pretty overcast.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IBALLI26

jimmynokia · 27-05-2020 4:25pm

Any chance of some sparks in the next few days

Oneiric 3 · 27-05-2020 5:58pm

Tomorrow afternoon's temperature anomaly forecast from the latest model run:

Warm everywhere, but if 29c is to be achieved, it'll most likely be somewhere within that darkest red region on that map.

Gaoth Laidir · 27-05-2020 6:58pm

Back at the end of June 2018, when Shannon carpark hit 32.0 °C, afternoon 500-1000 thickness was around 569 dam and 850 temperature 16 °C. The next warmest synop station that day was Gurteen, which hit 29.9 °C.

Tomorrow looks more like 560 dam and 13-14 °C T850. A southeasterly flow will make warmest areas more up towards the northwestern midlands. Various sounding indicate 25-27 possible at a couple of stations (Mount Dillon, Claremorris, etc.) but that's at a stretch, relying on the feedback from dry ground to get the extra degree or two. It will be an interesting one to watch.

neris · 27-05-2020 7:14pm

SouthWesterly wrote: »

I hate this forum. I'm working from home on a scorcher of a day and I can't even bring the office outside due to glare on the screen.

bring back giant ledgers & the quill & ink

piuswal · 28-05-2020 12:53am

pauldry wrote: »

Ok Newport 28.4c to equal Wikileaks

Newport Furnace for me.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-05-2020 6:41am

A 27c+ is likely in Connaught particularly toward the west.

How widespread remains to be seen.

Friday will be very warm to with mid 20's generally.

John mac · 28-05-2020 7:08am

Newport for me and 27.8°

Danno · 28-05-2020 9:32am

Close to 20°c at 9am here in South Laois

Danno · 28-05-2020 9:54am

Danno wrote: »

Close to 20°c at 9am here in South Laois

Bit of a SE breeze going, and temperatures holding just below 20°c

DOCARCH · 28-05-2020 9:57am

20.0c now in Dublin 16. Light east breeze, so I don't foresee any dramatic temps here today.

pauldry · 28-05-2020 10:26am

20.9c Valentia 10pm

Oneiric 3 · 28-05-2020 10:35am

Temperature forecast for 5pm this afternoon, and not just any old temperature forecast, but a 'flex scale' one... whatever in the name of God that is. Seems to be a good indicator though of temp distributions:

I'll go with 27.1c in Newport, but am uncomfortable with such a high figure.

cameramonkey · 28-05-2020 10:40am

SouthWesterly wrote: »

I hate this forum. I'm working from home on a scorcher of a day and I can't even bring the office outside due to glare on the screen.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=laptop+sun+shade&adgrpid=62021508207&gclid=Cj0KCQjwwr32BRD4ARIsAAJNf_3h7EHyBuu5_OaozWwy6Y5wRIlmBICBdUsbrDCPtIblcKI4aZhVQuQaAvc8EALw_wcB&hvadid=291314274897&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=1007850&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=b&hvrand=7484900456260038640&hvtargid=kwd-295849093333&hydadcr=2661_1761551&tag=googiehydra-21&ref=pd_sl_8kd0ifh6vb_b

get outside for some vitamin D.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-05-2020 10:47am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Temperature forecast for 5pm this afternoon, and not just any old temperature forecast, but a 'flex scale' one... whatever in the name of God that is. Seems to be a good indicator though of temp distributions:

I'll go with 27.1c in Newport, but am uncomfortable with such a high figure.

It just means that the coloured scale on the bottom only ranges from the lowest to the highest values within the area shown in the map. It changes as you move or zoom in or out. It allows much higher-resolution colour shading on the chart.

I agree with you on the such a high figure. I don't think 27.0 will be reached.

29 degrees possible May 28th.

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