Lions Tour

AbusesToilets wrote: »

I would posit Keenan has been the best 15 for the Lions nations this tournament. Better defensively than Hogg and better under the highball. Liam Williams hasn't been hitting his previous form and is still apt to give give away brainless penalties.

I agree. Keenan certainly in the mix IMO

There's going to be some surprise calls, as I've said before. The stand out options really aren't there this year. Hooker, scrum half and centre could all see some eyebrow raising calls.

There's potential for big omissions also. One of the big locks is going to be left out, more than likely. Right now that's a straight call between Gray and Ryan. Both are playing very well but the fact is that Itoje and AWJ are nailed on and Beirne and Henderson are in the form of their lives (as well as Henderson being a Lion already). Of course, there's a strong case for bringing Beirne as a dedicated blindside.

The biggest omission I can see happning is Billy Vunipola. He isn't looking anywhere near a Lion at the moment and the strip by VDF really underlined his tournament. I can see Stander and Faletau going as pure No. 8 options with Faletau the clear frontrunner for Gatland.

For a lot of the tournament, no halfbacks really stood out and there was potential for a real bolter here but, as things wrapped up, I think the old reliables have stepped up and done enough to force inclusion. I can see Sexton and Murray both included. Ali Price might go despite having a somewhat up and down tournament. Finn Russell will go if Gatland wants a spark but his control and goal kicking are major negatives against him. His presence would mean it's essential to select Farrell at 12 (which is a strong possibility anyway).

There will be a relatively unexpected/unfancied selection at hooker also. Turner from Scotland was having a good tournament (he was brilliant against England) but had a meltdown against us and lost his spot for the Italy game. I wouldn't be surprised to see either both English hookers go or Herring get a nod which would be a huge reward for him and I'd be delighted.

I think the back three options listed by Ciarán above are pretty on the money. Johnny May might miss out as a slightly controversial omission but not a huge shock given he has been solid rather than spectacular and has no experience with Gatlan et al. I think we're looking at Hogg with the Welsh wingers as it stands.

thomond2006 wrote: »

IMO Watson is in pole position to start. He was anonymous against Ireland but was having a phenomenal tournament to that point. He's a previous test starter as well which helps.

Fair point. I think he'll be in the 23 anyway. It will be a tight call. Himself and LRZ both scored 4 tries. Adams bagged 3 in only 3 games and is a proven Gatland favourite. I imagine it will come down to who is in form in the summer.

Ciaran-Irl wrote: »

Yeah, I should probably have included a bit of a rationale behind various selections above.

Front Row: Tighthead seems relatively straightforward with Furlong and Sinkler nailed on, and Francis a likely nod from Gatland. Loosehead is actually a tricky one. Mako is way off form, but I think the experience from last tour will be enough to get him on the plane. Marler is a maybe, if he is actually willing to join up. Him ducking out of the 6N might count against him. I added Porter as an option here as a bit of a guess. I can imagine Gatland wanting a really powerful pack, and having Porter as a LH would be huge against a really powerful Bok front row. I agree with you on the Hooker options. No great option from Ireland, the English Hookers are in dire form, the Scottish ones in bad form or injured.

Second Row: Johnny Gray the obvious absentee, but a couple of the English options could come in here as well. I personally think Henderson at more risk than Ryan. AWJ/Itoje. as nailed on as can be. Beirne simply has to go based on his flexibility.

Back row: There are a lot of ways this can go, as usual. I think Stander will definitely go, based on on factors beyond just his ability - super for squad dynamic, SA heritage, emotion of early retirement. Tipuric, Faletau, Curry & Underhill also seem nailed on to me. I don't think he can leave Vunipola at home personally. When in form, he is the best Number 8 in the world. The upside is just too huge.

Half Backs: I don't see much movement from this one. I don't think Price is good enough, I don't think the other Irish options are comfortable enough, and I think George Ford played himself out of contention the weekend just gone. Rhys Webb an option as SH, but I reckon the others are ahead of him.

Centres & Back three: Stockdale, Earls and Keenan could be in the mix, but I don't see it happening unless there are injuries. Tuilagi must be in the squad if he gets fit, but that's a big if. If Tuilagi doesn't make it, Ringrose is probably next in line. I think his stock was higher pre tournament.

Think the Scots could get a few in this year. Sutherland at lh and thought Turner was good in the 6 nations + mcinally if he gets fit..

Think Courtney lawes will be in with a shout if he gets fit, can see the lions playing with a lawes/itoje/Beirne at 6 to match up with Steph du toit..

Billy had the second most metres after contact vs France (not sure on stats v Ireland) but think he’s being put down a bit unfairly he’s lined up by 2/3 defenders every time he’s hit.. not as if jvdf stripped him 1 v 1..

Centre will be interesting may end up being slade v ringrose for a spot..

Back 3 I don’t see Ireland having too many on the plane honestly, It’s a highly competitive position and I believe Watson, may, Daly, l Williams, north, Rees Zammit & Hogg are all better players and cover multiple positions each which is huge on a tour. Also think someone like van Der merve could be thrown into the mix for a point of difference

I wonder if a few English players controversially not selected by Jones will be on the plane...err coach. Gatland has picked bolters hasn't he?

Asus X540L wrote: »

There's usually 45 going isn't there and there's 60 starting 15 players between the 4 "home nations"

Add to that the usual injuries and almost everyone ends up going. Even if you're retired and playing in Japan like Shane Williams.

There's been a few notable exceptions over the years like Stringer, but being selected for a modern Lions squad means sweet **** all tbh.

Usually 36/37, but yeah, they went with 41 the last time. Youngs and Vunipola pulled out before traveling and weren't replaced, so it ended up as 39. Then a bunch of players were called up later purely for midweek.

Ciaran-Irl wrote: »

Usually 36/37, but yeah, they went with 41 the last time. Youngs and Vunipola pulled out before traveling and weren't replaced, so it ended up as 39. Then a bunch of players were called up later purely for midweek.

Laidlaw and Haskell replaced them before travelling.

ec18 wrote: »

unfortunately for Billy the tour is probably the worst for him in that SA are the only team where he doesn't attract a double tackle. (Duane, DuToit, Etzebeth et al) So I'm not sure if he'll be as effective as he is in the northern hemisphere or even if the tour was in Aus or NZ.....

Your missing the point here, billy was very effective/dominant after contact running into 2/3 man tackles and as if you say South Africa only throw 1 man at him, he will be far more effective and win them collisions more times than not .. likely 3 8s will go, stander, billy & falateau

I think George North is definitely going, had a great 6n at 13 and covers wing too obviously

joseywhales wrote: »

Given welsh dominance of the other 3 nations and his effectiveness as a strike runner at 13 and the game that warren likes to play and the fact that warren knows and loves his welsh players, I think he will go.

I'd agree with that, has played more confidently at 13 with each game, and he can cover the wing if needed... He'll be there