2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

Akrasia wrote: »

Did they happen to be the record minimum temperatures for May?

Banana Republic 1 wrote: »

The start of the film with him at the music festival was recorded in the mid 1990s, the movie was released in 2020 so that first scene was misleading. The next part where they go to a solar farm was also recorded in the past, circa ten years. The guy said the panels where 8% efficient. Today ten years on there about 23% efficient, the were also the wrong type for what was meant to be achieved,again the movie is misleading.

There was also another scene where they quickly ran through a bunch of images all attributed to electric car manufacturing, including children in Africa mining cobalt, what they failed to explain was all those things including cobalt, which is used in oil refining, are used in virtual everything humans consume. Needless to say they hacked out things for this movie.

Like I said before capitalism has dragged us down to this point and if it continues unchanged there is no way out.

Akrasia wrote: »

You said you don’t know, but you do know, They definitely were not record low temperatures, they were slightly cooler than average.

Noting a record being broken is noteworthy, slightly warmer of cooler than average temperatures are not noteworthy
I do think it is hilarious that you accuse Thunburg for cherry-picking by not mentioning a slightly below average May this year, while you presented the last 3 Mays in Sweden and conveniently forget to mention the fact that the 2018 May was the hottest May on record with average temperatures above 10 degrees warmer than average that month

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

But according to you, the past 3 years of warmer Junes is a trend and cause for worry. By that rationale, surely colder Mays in 2019, 2020 and 2021 are equally a trend in the other direction? Or does it only work one way?

Akrasia wrote: »

May was amongst the wettest Mays on Record. April was dominated by a blocking high that trapped polar air over much of the UK for weeks on end.
Weather has a cause. These were the causes of the cold spring in this corner of the planet.

Perhaps if it wasn't for global warming, it might have been the coldest april/may on record instead of just in the last 80 years

Even with global warming, there are still 'cold records' being broken. It's just that the number of record warm temperatures are happening at a ratio of about 2:1

as time goes on, that ratio will likely change to 2.5:1, then 3:1 etc

All the while, the bell curve for what constitutes 'extreme' weather shifts towards more high energy events

(All the above is notwithstanding the breakdown of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns that could cause major changes in how heat is distributed globally and would introduce a whole series of new and troubling issues)

Akrasia wrote: »

No, it was an illustration of the bell curve not a plot of actual changes

during the break I’ve been thinking more about this. You laughed at the idea of a 1 sigma shift to the right, but over the 20th century we saw temperatures at the end consistently at 3 sigma if we were to consider the global average temperature going back the past few thousand years, and since the 21st century started, we’ve been moving beyond 3 sigma to 4 sigma

year on year natural variability fluctuates on the order of tenths of a degree plus or minus, we’re at 1.1 degrees above the preindustrial average and projections for climate change are to double or triple this again

a 1 sigma shift, where extreme hot weather is only 34% more likely is our best case scenario, what we’re going to see, as the world continues to heat up is the 1000 year event happening every 10 years, and later every 5 years (especially heatwaves) until it’s just ‘normal’ weather and the new extremes are unthinkable bad

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/heat-wave-pacific-northwest-could-soon-repeat-due-climate-change-research-2021-07-07/

How the feck do you put text in quotes in this new shíthole of a website layout?!

Well it’s hardly going to be peer reviewed in less than a week is it. The paper has not been peer reviewed but it is based on peer reviewed methodology

if I use pythagoras’ Theorem to calculate something, that calculation can be trusted if it’s performed by an expert because the methodology is proven

but regardless, you keep on pretending that this is normal if it makes you feel better

The editing features with this new layout are terrible.

Looking at the graph Judith Curry took apart the narrative they are trying to build, it is not supported by historical analysis.

These scientists doing attribution studies for the last decade have built up the statistical datasets and models which have been peer reviewed.

https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/6/177/2020/

Plugging in the data from the most recent heatwaves allows them to use this methodology to get an estimate of the probability of these events. You don't get to just dismiss them because you don't like their answer, you need to show me the scientific paper that shows their methodology is wrong.

The scientists are very confident that this event is virtually impossible without climate change. What they are not certain about, is whether this is an extreme 1 in a thousand year event based on the Current climate (including the warming from climate change) or if it is something that is going to become part of a new climate pattern. Only time will tell which one this is, but the central point is, that even if it was a freak event, it is more extreme now than it would have been before 2020

-----------------------------------------------------

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change/

[quote]Main findings

• Based on observations and modeling, the occurrence of a heatwave with maximum daily temperatures (TXx) as observed in the area 45–52 ºN, 119–123 ºW, was virtually impossible without human-caused climate change.
• The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lie far outside the range of historically observed temperatures. This makes it hard to quantify with confidence how rare the event was. In the most realistic statistical analysis the event is estimated to be about a 1 in 1000 year event in today’s climate.
• There are two possible sources of this extreme jump in peak temperatures. The first is that this is a very low probability event, even in the current climate which already includes about 1.2°C of global warming — the statistical equivalent of really bad luck, albeit aggravated by climate change. The second option is that nonlinear interactions in the climate have substantially increased the probability of such extreme heat, much beyond the gradual increase in heat extremes that has been observed up to now. We need to investigate the second possibility further, although we note the climate models do not show it. All numbers below assume that the heatwave was a very low probability event that was not caused by new nonlinearities.
• With this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, an event, defined as daily maximum temperatures (TXx) in the heatwave region, as rare as 1 in a 1000 years would have been at least 150 times rarer without human-induced climate change.
• Also, this heatwave was about 2°C hotter than it would have been if it had occurred at the beginning of the industrial revolution (when global mean temperatures were 1.2°C cooler than today).
• Looking into the future, in a world with 2°C of global warming (0.8°C warmer than today which at current emission levels would be reached as early as the 2040s), this event would have been another degree hotter. An event like this – currently estimated to occur only once every 1000 years, would occur roughly every 5 to 10 years in that future world with 2°C of global warming.

[/quote]

----------------------------------------------------

If scientists warn 'If we increase CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere we're going to see an increase global average temperatures and in extreme hot weather events, and then we increase CO2 concentrations by 50% above the naturally stable concentration, and then global average temperatures increase to the hottest they have been in at least 15000 within a generation, and we see extreme heat records being absolutely smashed around the world year on year on year....

It's not the scientists who don't have a clue, it's the people who think ECS is 1c when we've already surpassed this without approaching a doubling of CO2 reaching equilibrium

And this is at a time when the earth should be in a slight cooling phase

That is unsupported on your part and she told us why back in 2017.