[Akrasia]

Originally Posted by Gaoth Laidir

Those right atmospheric conditions could happen a century ago but no way nowadays, right? What was that something else?

Polar amplification weakens the jet stream and polar vortex making these events that bit more likely. Doesn’t mean they were impossible or never happened before AGW, but the dice is getting loaded

[Akrasia]

Originally Posted by Gaoth Laidir

They are unlikely to occur, but they do still occur. Always have.

Yes, but a once in a century event could become a once in a decade event due to climate

[Akrasia]

Originally Posted by AuntySnow

As its only ever happened once,then I think it falls deeply into the category of unlikely
Also the Texas grid is not connected to the fedral grid
Ergo no backup supplies
The latter is probably the biggest take home there

The political system in Texas certainly did make the consequences of this storm much worse than it could have been, their refusal to regulate utility providers to ensure they could operate in in icy conditions definitely cost lives, as well as many other dire consequences from their Laissez faire approach to big business

[Gaoth Laidir]

Originally Posted by Akrasia

The polar vortex is a bit like a flywheel, if it spins quickly, it is more stable and less likely to shift or wobble. The vortex is constantly getting slammed by other weather systems, a weaker polar vortex is more easily disrupted when hit by another weather system

The vortex was already disrupted in December after getting hit by a powerful storm and hasn’t been able to recover and probably won’t recover at all this year, (at least until it reforms in Autumn
It actually reversed direction for a time in December/January

The polar vortex tends to keep the cold Arctic air masses locked over the Arctic but when it breaks down, this cold air spills out, and then the meandering jet can drag it south as we have seen happening over the last week or so in Texas

https://climatechange.ucdavis.edu/cl...-polar-vortex/

How is this affected by climate change? Because the polar regions are warming at least twice as fast as the rest of the planet, thus reducing the temperature gradient that partially drives the strength of the jet stream and polar vortex

I know how the polar vortex works and mentioned about the sudden stratospheric warming that occurred at the start of January. That's a natural process, by the way.

What I'm getting at is can you provide some charts or something to show that this particular event was caused by something other than that "something" that you think was probably responsible for the 1895 snowstorm but were unable to identify. If you're able to attribute this event to agw then I'm sure you have some evidence to back it up, showing how the now frozen Arctic somehow caused that northerly outbreak. The link you posted, by the way, does not prove a thing and in fact seems to say the opposite, i.e. there is no evidence or consensus to say that it could have anything to do with it. For example,

If Arctic amplification is influencing the jet stream in this way, there could be widespread impacts on weather across vast swaths of North America and Eurasia. In particular, a flurry of recent studies have explored whether a weaker, wavier jet stream could lead to more Arctic air intrusions at low latitudes like the extreme cold spell gripping vast swaths of the country this week.

However, these connections are contentious. While scientists generally agree that Arctic warming can influence the jet stream, there is little consensus on whether the jet stream has already experienced significant changes due to climate change, how extreme any future changes will be, or how much of an effect that will have on mid-latitude weather.

Complicating matters further, the direction of influence might go both ways: A study published last year suggested that random fluctuations in the jet stream might be enhancing Arctic warming by transporting heat and moisture from mid-latitudes north.

The findings have some important caveats. While the authors found a link between a warming Arctic and slower summer weather, their results—like much of the research on Arctic amplification and cold air outbreaks in winter—don’t prove that the former causes the latter. Future research will be needed to demonstrate any causal links to Arctic warming and the jet stream.

Even if rapid Arctic warming does lead to more stalled summer weather patterns further south, it’s unlikely that it will be the sole factor at play. “There are many factors that influence [weather] persistence, and the temperature gradient might not be the dominant one,” Screen says.

As Kornhuber and Tamarin-Brodsky note in their paper, not all climate models agree that the Arctic amplification effect will continue to grow more intense in the summer. But even in scenarios where the equator-to-pole temperature difference begins growing again—implying a reduced Arctic amplification effect—the authors’ models still project summer weather patterns slowing down in North America.

[Akrasia]

Originally Posted by PokeHerKing

I think this forum is full of amateur weather enthusiast's who understand that calling the weather 5 days from now is not an exact science. So when posters claim one freak event is proof of AGW/climate catastrophe and the "science" backs it up they're naturally sceptical.

And so they should be, I didn’t do that however

[Gaoth Laidir]

Originally Posted by Akrasia

Polar amplification weakens the jet stream and polar vortex making these events that bit more likely. Doesn’t mean they were impossible or never happened before AGW, but the dice is getting loaded

Originally Posted by Akrasia

Yes, but a once in a century event could become a once in a decade event due to climate

Says you. Conjecture, Your Honour.

Do you know how many ice storms Houston has had over the past century?

[Oneiric 3]

Akrasia speaks of disruption of the 'polar vortex' as if it was something abnormal. It isn't, and we have only to look back even at relatively recent history to know this. Historic long term winter averages in this country for example are lower than present precisely because colder temperature occurred more frequently as Arctic & Continental air masses were more commonly occurring, of which can only really occur when the PV is in a weakened state.

But remember one of the last times the PV was in full swing? (2013-2014), that too was blamed on climate change and a sign of things to come.

The temperature gradient between the Pole and the Tropics is of course weaker this year, at least in the Pacific region, because 'La Nina' is still ongoing.

[Gaoth Laidir]

https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/st...77504067559425

[Gaoth Laidir]

https://twitter.com/NOAAClimate/stat...32902583091200

[Pa ElGrande]

Originally Posted by JCX BXC

A 7000% increase on energy prices on struggling people?

Oh America, you never fail to impress me.

Studies backed by computer generated models said otherwise.

Note: A heat pump only works when the outside temperature is above freezing. It can’t heat a home in harsh winter weather and Texans in the South don’t have to worry about this drawback or did not until last week.


Converting homes to all-electric heating would save money and slash emissions in the Lone Star State, a study finds.
November 22, 2019

Electric heat pumps will become cleaner as more zero-carbon wind and solar power are added to the ERCOT grid. By the end of 2018, 30 percent of the energy used on the ERCOT grid was from carbon-free sources.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, three in five Texas households already use electricity as their primary source of heat, much of it electric-resistance heating. Rhodes and White did not model the energy use and peak demand impacts of replacing that electric-resistance heating with much more energy efficient heat pumps.

“Most of the electric-resistance heating in Texas is located in the very far south, where they don’t have much heating at all,” Rhodes said. “You would see savings in terms of the bills there because these heat pumps definitely operate more efficiently than electric-resistance heating for most of the time.”

source

Before we go pointing fingers at America, Our infrastructure is designed to work in fair weather conditions. Ireland did not fare so well during the March 2018 cold, the death rate from flu increased to levels seen with Covid, animal deaths increased and the water infrastructure needed many repairs. Ireland is rolling out SMART meters and the pricing system for electricity will change the pricing is modelled around fair weather conditions not winter extremes.

The much-anticipated rollout of smart electricity meters in Ireland will be a game-changer for Ireland’s energy customers and suppliers alike.

For customers, the ability to monitor consumption in real time could help many households to improve their energy efficiency, lower their carbon footprint and reduce their bills.

Smart meters should also bring peace of mind when it comes to energy costs, as well as the convenience of not having to submit meter readings manually.

Suppliers will no longer have to estimate bills and might see the roll-out of smart meters as an opportunity to introduce innovative price plans and pricing structures.

source

[AuntySnow]

https://www.comicsands.com/conspirac...2650723426.htm

[Nabber]

Maybe someone more educated on the Polar Vortex (PV) can clarify this

Strong PV leads to a higher chance of milder winter for Europe/N. America. A milder winter is an indicator of AGW effect.

A weak PV increases the chances of a colder winter in Europe/N. America. A weak PV is an indicator of AGW effects.

What is the goldilocks zone that would qualify as a non AGW impacted winter?


I know I'm over simplifying this. But is there an element of hedging going on? In that all roads lead back to one. Any deviation from that is an anomaly.