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AuntySnow · 08-02-2021, 18:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calibos

Eagerly awaiting what the ECM has to say for itself.

Cursory glance, but not Good news,might struggle to hold onto hill snow in the east Friday morning
The 2nd front obviously will then be all rain
A win for the Atlantic
Look at where the air originates feeding in on Friday

UK fax has the occlusion over the east at noon Friday but with the airflow from the south

nacho libre · 08-02-2021, 19:43

The GFS scenario of earlier is what would happen if this winter was not one big tease, but of course that will fall into line soon enough. I started to lose interest in this event after I read the Met Eireann forecast this morning. Unfortunately at this stage, it's very rare to see upgrades once it starts going wrong. No doubt some people will see a good few hours of snow on Thursday, but for me snow that is then quickly washed away is rather pointless.

Nqp15hhu · 08-02-2021, 19:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by nacho libre

The GFS scenario of earlier is what would happen if this winter was not one big tease, but of course that will fall into line soon enough. I started to lose interest in this event after I read the Met Eireann forecast this morning. Unfortunately at this stage, it's very rare to see upgrades once it starts going wrong. No doubt some people will see a good few hours of snow on Thursday, but for me snow that is then quickly washed away is rather pointless.

Most models show the cold continuing to Sunday. That’s what the BBC forecast said too.

Cw85 · 08-02-2021, 19:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by nacho libre

The GFS scenario of earlier is what would happen if this winter was not one big tease, but of course that will fall into line soon enough. I started to lose interest in this event after I read the Met Eireann forecast this morning. Unfortunately at this stage, it's very rare to see upgrades once it starts going wrong. No doubt some people will see a good few hours of snow on Thursday, but for me snow that is then quickly washed away is rather pointless.

I'm very confused here, a lot of the regular good posters saying it looks like the cold spell will last through the weekend?

**DOCARCH** · 08-02-2021, 19:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cw85

I'm very confused here, a lot of the regular good posters saying it looks like the cold spell will last through the weekend?

The models differ as to what will happen. I am sure one of them will be right (or be more right) than others....that's the only thing we can be sure of!

TheMilkyPirate · 08-02-2021, 20:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cw85

I'm very confused here, a lot of the regular good posters saying it looks like the cold spell will last through the weekend?

Nacho is further west the front seems like it will dump most snow further east.

I would be more upbeat about Thursday as both the GFS and ECM show a good few hours of snow here (Wexford)

Cork2021 · 08-02-2021, 20:09

Cork missing out?

nacho libre · 08-02-2021, 20:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cork2021

Cork missing out?

Well, you may get a few hours of snow there before it turns to rain- especially the further north you are, but the closer you are to the coast the greater the risk of it being just rain or sleet from the get go.

nacho libre · 08-02-2021, 20:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheMilkyPirate

Nacho is further west the front seems like it will dump most snow further east.

I would be more upbeat about Thursday as both the GFS and ECM show a good few hours of snow here (Wexford)

Yes it looks good for you. I have a friend in Wexford who does not like snow. I know, i should unfriend him for this insolence

Gaoth Laidir · 08-02-2021, 20:25

If I were a betting man I would be putting money on that front stalling a bit further west than is currently being progged. Its parent low out south of Greenland shows signs that it will probably retreat westwards slightly more, with flow becoming more aligned along the front earlier, causing it to stall. Frontal dynamic parameters from today's 12Z GFS suggest the frontal gradient will be diminishing, hence reducing precipitation on Thursday evening (see Q-vector div. charts for 00Z and 12Z runs below).

Ahead of that front, heights are pumped northwards over us and help set up a southern Scandi high for the weekend, which should keep the colder air further west for then. I think one or two more opportunities over the weekend could turn out to be a little more potent for precipitation, though exactly how snowy it will be remains to be seen, given the fact that we'll be in more of a stagnating airmass by then.

Kermit.de.frog · 08-02-2021, 20:27

There is a risk of multiple snow events for some.

ECM has no less than 3 potential "events" between Thursday and Monday particularly in the eastern half of the country.

pad199207 · 08-02-2021, 20:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gaoth Laidir

If I were a betting man I would be putting money on that front stalling a bit further west than is currently being progged. Its parent low out south of Greenland shows signs that it will probably retreat westwards slightly more, with flow becoming more aligned along the front earlier, causing it to stall. Frontal dynamic parameters from today's 12Z GFS suggest the frontal gradient will be diminishing, hence reducing precipitation on Thursday evening (see Q-vector div. charts for 00Z and 12Z runs below).

Ahead of that front, heights are pumped northwards over us and help set up a southern Scandi high for the weekend, which should keep the colder air further west for then. I think one or two more opportunities over the weekend could turn out to be a little more potent for precipitation, though exactly how snowy it will be remains to be seen, given the fact that we'll be in more of a stagnating airmass by then.

Anything that can go wrong will go wrong

Gaoth Laidir · 08-02-2021, 20:40

Cork Airport is getting in on the snow depth reports, with <0.5 cm reported in the last couple of hours.

Still snowing hard in southeastern England, with 26 cm now at Andrewsfield (87 m amsl) from that frontal event.

Cork2021 · 08-02-2021, 20:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by nacho libre

Well, you may get a few hours of snow there before it turns to rain- especially the further north you are, but the closer you are to the coast the greater the risk of it being just rain or sleet from the get go.

Near Mallow, not so bad

TheMilkyPirate · 08-02-2021, 20:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by nacho libre

Yes it looks good for you. I have a friend in Wexford who does not like snow. I know, i should unfriend him for this insolence

Blasphemy!

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08-02-2021, 19:43	#62
nacho libre Registered User Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 14,055 Adverts \| Friends	The GFS scenario of earlier is what would happen if this winter was not one big tease, but of course that will fall into line soon enough. I started to lose interest in this event after I read the Met Eireann forecast this morning. Unfortunately at this stage, it's very rare to see upgrades once it starts going wrong. No doubt some people will see a good few hours of snow on Thursday, but for me snow that is then quickly washed away is rather pointless.

08-02-2021, 20:09	#67
Cork2021 Registered User Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 681 Adverts \| Friends	Cork missing out?

08-02-2021, 20:27	#71
Kermit.de.frog Registered User Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 18,043 Adverts \| Friends	There is a risk of multiple snow events for some. ECM has no less than 3 potential "events" between Thursday and Monday particularly in the eastern half of the country.