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08-02-2021, 12:42   #31
snowgal
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Updated by Matthew Martin on 08/02/2021

Our old friend Weathercheck has clearly been browsing this forum recently!

Quite an upbeat read and very well written. I do wonder if the first front stalls/fizzles out before getting over to the east?
yes thats my concern too. It may change before Thursday and the East may not actually get the front at all...
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08-02-2021, 13:12   #32
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Well, i hope our old friend Weathercheck is right with the "may" and that the transition would be in parts of the west and south, rather than all of the west and south.


I certainly don't relish it being 3 or 4 degrees with cold rain on Thursday night. I'd sooner it all fizzled out in that case.
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08-02-2021, 13:35   #33
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Cloudtops are still low over the UK, showing at around 2900 m at Albermarle 12Z sounding. Still that very strong 700 hPa inversion. Steering flow there roughly ESE. Snow depth at that station is 3 cm, but fairly respectable 20 cm in SE England from that frontal event and 28 cm at Aboyne, Scotland.





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08-02-2021, 13:56   #34
Rebelbrowser
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Big difference in DPs from North East to South West

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08-02-2021, 14:05   #35
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I am intrigued with Thursday -> Friday event. If the front is struggling to make its way up from the south west, I suspect that will compound the rain shadow effect on Dublin city from the Dublin mountains. Or do I have that wrong?
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08-02-2021, 14:07   #36
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yes thats my understanding too, hence the East actually might not fair well at all.....but it seems to be knife edge situation..
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08-02-2021, 14:08   #37
Steopo
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Originally Posted by nacho libre View Post
As Auntysnow mentioned previously they have access to data we don't see. The Chief forecaster seemed confident something would happen on Thursday, but obviously would not commit to anything until she had to. I imagine Met Eireann also share data with the UKMO. Bear it mind it was mogreps (UKMO'S own model) ,afterall, that indicated that this cold period would be extended, and that the other models would start to back that scenario. It now looks like that will happen.
Be interested to know if they do. Know they’ve collaborated with UK on storm names & weather observations (wow.met.ie) but have never indicated they use UKMO model for forecasting. Public info indicates they use HIRLAM for short term & ECM for forecasts up to 10days with obviously professional versions of those & advanced visualisation (met.ie/science/forecasting-centre www.iblsoft.com ). ECM has consistently indicated a snow event on Thurs since MetE mentioned the risk so would have thought that’s where they’ve picked it up?
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08-02-2021, 15:08   #38
nacho libre
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Be interested to know if they do. Know they’ve collaborated with UK on storm names & weather observations (wow.met.ie) but have never indicated they use UKMO model for forecasting. Public info indicates they use HIRLAM for short term & ECM for forecasts up to 10days with obviously professional versions of those & advanced visualisation (met.ie/science/forecasting-centre www.iblsoft.com ). ECM has consistently indicated a snow event on Thurs since MetE mentioned the risk so would have thought that’s where they’ve picked it up?
I could imagine a scenario whereby the UKMO would share model info' with them for potentially impactful events for Ireland the UK, but they don't rely on the UKMO for guidance, as you say they use the ECM and Hirlam for that.
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08-02-2021, 15:49   #39
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ECM 6z struggles to bring the 'snow line' below (Edit: actually above) 200m away from very SW during Thursday.



Any potential snowfall from this front looks light to moderate at best and on this run at least, it struggles to make it into Ulster.

Last edited by Oneiric 3; 08-02-2021 at 16:11.
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08-02-2021, 15:53   #40
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Originally Posted by Oneiric 3 View Post
ECM 6z struggles to bring the 'snow line' below 200m away from very SW during Thursday.



Any potential snowfall from this front looks light to moderate at best and on this run at least, it struggles to make it into Ulster.
It’s always looks promising until the models get a firmer grip of the higher uppers coming in with an Atlantic front. I am expecting a sleety mess in most of Cork except very high ground as that what happens 9/10.
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08-02-2021, 15:57   #41
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It’s always looks promising until the models get a firmer grip of the higher uppers coming in with an Atlantic front. I am expecting a sleety mess in most of Cork except very high ground as that what happens 9/10.
I agree. This is all just speculation for now and no doubt models will chop and change big time up till (and during) Thursday. Would instinctively expect a ****ty sleety transition here at best as well. Nacho and those further north of here tend to do better in these set ups by and large.
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08-02-2021, 16:03   #42
nacho libre
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Originally Posted by Oneiric 3 View Post
I agree. This is all just speculation for now and no doubt models will chop and change big time up till (and during) Thursday. Would instinctively expect a ****ty sleety transition here at best as well. Nacho and those further north of here tend to do better in these set ups by and large.
Well yes, its subject to change, but if it were to pan out as the current Met Eireann guidance suggests, i would sooner it decays before reaching here. I love snow, but a quick transition to several hours of cold rain, no thanks. Nacho in refusing snow shocker
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08-02-2021, 16:08   #43
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Does that chart mean its game over for decent snow on Thursday even further north and east for the Wexford to Galway line?
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08-02-2021, 16:11   #44
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GFS better than ICON keeping the front intact over much of the country. Turning to rain in the south west.





Second front on Saturday and has it snowing until Valentines day in the inland south east. Large pinch of salt needed with that at this stage.

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08-02-2021, 16:19   #45
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GFS Saturday and Sunday looks fun.

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