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07-02-2021, 23:54   #1
Danno
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Cold Spell - Feb 7th to 13th 2021 - Technical Discussion

Technical Discussion for the current spell of cold with potential for snow...

Any non-technical chat can be posted here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/show...p?t=2058155857

Apologies for locking the wrong thread for a few moments, a big oops!

The Up to 120hrs Thread has been locked.

Last edited by Danno; 08-02-2021 at 00:05.
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08-02-2021, 00:17   #2
Rebelbrowser
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The Euro 04 precipitation charts for the next 48 hours make no sense. Showers coming from the east but it seems skipping over the east and south coasts and causing accumulations inland in the likes of Kerry and Galway. Current model run is at https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-...OP=1&RES=0
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08-02-2021, 00:25   #3
Gonzo
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tonights GFS 18z is turning out to be very much a mild outlier from the 12th. Most members keeping it cold. The mean shows an even smaller mild blip compared to the 12z.



Thursday into Friday is now looking rather snowy across all the country except for coastal parts of the far south-west.

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08-02-2021, 08:00   #4
Gaoth Laidir
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Cloud has really broken up overnight but cloud top heights have not increased at all. Soundings from the UK show them ranging from 850 - 750 hPa. Watching for any signs of increases during the day.
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08-02-2021, 08:03   #5
Gaoth Laidir
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Nottingham sounding from 06Z.

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08-02-2021, 08:08   #6
Villain
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HARMONIE showing some more shower activity tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/statu...590567425?s=20
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08-02-2021, 08:55   #7
Rebelbrowser
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
tonights GFS 18z is turning out to be very much a mild outlier from the 12th. Most members keeping it cold. The mean shows an even smaller mild blip compared to the 12z.

Thursday into Friday is now looking rather snowy across all the country except for coastal parts of the south west]
For us south coasters to cling to, I see the GEM has Thursdays front stalling over the southern half and retreating. Very different outcome if that happened!
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08-02-2021, 08:58   #8
munsterlegend
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For us south coasters to cling to, I see the GEM has Thursdays front stalling over the southern half and retreating. Very different outcome if that happened!
Yep ECM looking quite snowy for a while down here as well..
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08-02-2021, 08:58   #9
Villain
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Met Eireann update on Morning Ireland:

Monday to Wednesday showery setup, mainly in East, 1-2cms in Ulster and Leinster, tomorrow more widespread with 1-2cms anywhere most likely in Leinster. Thursday could see significant snowfall and significant accumulations, looking at up to 5cm widely. Milder weather from Friday so snowfall Thursday may not stick around.
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08-02-2021, 09:02   #10
Kermit.de.frog
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GFS has two snow events - one on Thursday/Friday and the other Sunday/Monday...
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08-02-2021, 09:11   #11
Gaoth Laidir
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Met.ie Harmonie shows a very broken band of precip over the country Thursday.

https://www.met.ie/
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08-02-2021, 09:24   #12
Rebelbrowser
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Met.ie Harmonie shows a very broken band of precip over the country Thursday.

https://www.met.ie/
That would tally with the 5cm Villain says was referenced on Morning Ireland. You'd expect more from an intact front surely?
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08-02-2021, 09:49   #13
nacho libre
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That would tally with the 5cm Villain says was referenced on Morning Ireland. You'd expect more from an intact front surely?
Yes you would. Is 5 cm considered significant by them? Surely the ground will be cold enough inland for the snow to stick from the get go. I would prefer this Harmonie scenario even if it means we only get a modest covering before it all fizzles out. Rather than a quick snow to rain event.
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08-02-2021, 09:58   #14
Donegal Ken
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Met.ie Harmonie shows a very broken band of precip over the country Thursday.

https://www.met.ie/
That timeframe for Thursday is the output from the ECMWF model. Harmonie only runs up until 12:00hrs Wednesday 54hrs. If you look at the bottom right you will see this.
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08-02-2021, 10:02   #15
arctictree
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Latest GFS has snow all day Thursday and into Friday for east. Total amounts seem to be fairly light though for a frontal event. Sunday/Monday seems to be the one to watch, not out yet though as I type...
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