[Gonzo]

Mod Note

This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame) for Winter 2020/2021.

If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

Thanks

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This week is set to be fairly chilly with low pressure diving from Iceland down across Ireland and the UK introducing a faily chilly second half of this week and weekend.





Wintry showers will affect parts of the west on Thursday:



Saturday will be a wetter day with mostly cold rain and some sleet in places, perhaps snow on high peaks.



It will be chilly over the next week with temperatures generally between 4C and 8C.

[fvp4]

Roll on spring.

[Meteorite58]

ECM backing off getting milder from midweek as earlier runs were showing, mildest in the S, GFS still showing it to get a bit milder Thurs but turning cool again the weekend.








Lots of frosty cold nights coming up

[JanuarySnowstor]

Quiet in here considering there's a possibility of a significant storm Tuesday night. All models showing something quite nasty!

[JanuarySnowstor]

It's over this weekend that we get the first trend as to what happens over Christmas.
It's been a good start this evening!

[Meteorite58]

Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor

Quiet in here considering there's a possibility of a significant storm Tuesday night. All models showing something quite nasty!

Thinking the ECM currently windy on the coasts, on the latest runs showing it very windy for a time in the SE and E, windy in the W. UKMO showing it very windy in the S and SE. GFS nothing much showing nor ICON at this stage but early days yet with plenty of time for change one way or the other.

More like gales / strong gales for some coastal counties for now.

[Meteorite58]

Models are more similar now regards the LP, possible Storm, for later Tues into Weds. Still a difference in track and intensity. ARPEGE and ICON keeping the center tracking up just off the W coast . ARPEGE by far is the strongest run atm , in Orange territory but too big a difference with the ECM for now which is showing the track further E with the center more inland and not as strong winds for the S, SE and E ( GFS similar ), gusting up around 100 to 110 along the coasts and up to 90 in coastal counties and up to 80 Km/h elsewhere but on this run showing the least wind in the W.

To note ARPEGE much deeper , would imagine it will come more in line with the ECM.

[Meteorite58]

A lot of rainfall between now and Weds morning with high spring tides and strong onshore winds, might need to watch the water levels.

Tide table for Cork city.

[Meteorite58]

ARPEGE and ICON showing stronger winds for Tues night into Weds than the ECM and GFS .

ECM and GFS show less severe winds and would have to side with the ECM for now, bit far out for to be reliable for the ARPEGE yet.

The models should be more aligned this evening.

[Meteorite58]

https://twitter.com/CorkSafetyAlert/...000006656?s=20

[Meteorite58]

A fairly big adjustment more W by the ECM whereas the ARPEGE is now tracking more E. UKMO ( after going walkabout ) now tracking about midway between the ARPEGE and the ECM and looks about the strongest but it hasn't been very consistent. ICON somewhere between the ECM and ARPEGE. GFS weakest of the lot .

So would be siding with the European models, UKMO might be overdoing it a bit.

At the moment I reckon ( just my opinion ) looking at Yellow warnings for many counties for wind gusting to 110 km/h but will need to see the next few runs to pinpoint the strongest areas, atm the S, SE and E getting the strongest winds.

This may transfer strong winds well into Munster and Leinster depending on track, high end yellow perhaps.

Very heavy rain going through quickly in the SW may warrant a warning as there will be big accumulations there over the next few days, rivers will be very high and might not hold the rain to fall late Tues into early Weds.

[JanuarySnowstor]

Your missing one point there Meteorite
An exceptional high tide for the South on Wed
Tidal flooding in Cork Could Be Very bad

[Meteorite58]

Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor

Your missing one point there Meteorite
An exceptional high tide for the South on Wed
Tidal flooding in Cork Could Be Very bad

Did kinda mention it in post 8 & 10:

ECM not making much of this LP on the last couple of runs, isobars not particularly tight and doesn't drop as low as earlier runs and fills fairly quickly.

Will see if the Hi Res models move in either direction. I would think the HI Res are showing the possibility of a bit more than gusts of 100 km/h on the S and SE coasts for the moment, very strong onshore winds in the S and SE. Strongest winds will have cleared Munster early Weds morning.

Fairly blustery inland in the yellow warning counties.

[JanuarySnowstor]

This system tomorrow night has the potential to cause a lot of damage through both tidal flooding and wind across the South. It's potent and isn't just your regular system. If I was a shop owner in flood prone areas of Cork I would spend tomorrow getting all stock away from ground floors!!

[Oscar Bravo]

Status Orange - Wind warning for Cork

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Due to high seas and strong onshore winds, there is the risk of coastal flooding tonight (Tuesday night) and on Wednesday. Gale force southeast winds, veering southwest gusting 90 to 110km/h generally, higher in exposed areas.

Valid: 21:00 Tuesday 15/12/2020 to 09:00 Wednesday 16/12/2020