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23-02-2021, 00:33   #3541
Larbre34
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I’m sorry. But I just don’t agree or believe that winter and cold weather is gone. Snow is almost guaranteed here in March.

I expect the cold to return in the next two or three weeks.
Hows this working out?
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23-02-2021, 01:17   #3542
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Hows this working out?
A bit early to tell?

Not saying I agree with the OP though.
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23-02-2021, 01:37   #3543
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A section of The Polar Vortex drops on Eastern Europe, while me miss out or on the periphery. The high seemingly can't get far enough north to push the cold our way. We need a direct hit, a diluted easterly won't cut it in March. I am kind sick of the near misses at this stage. I would love just one significant snowfall at this stage, even if its gone the next day.
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23-02-2021, 01:41   #3544
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What I wouldn't give for some of that short-lived Greek, Syrian, Jordanian and Saudi Arabian Snow.
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23-02-2021, 02:09   #3545
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Originally Posted by nacho libre View Post
A section of The Polar Vortex drops on Eastern Europe, while me miss out or on the periphery. The high seemingly can't get far enough north to push the cold our way. We need a direct hit, a diluted easterly won't cut it in March. I am kind sick of the near misses at this stage. I would love just one significant snowfall at this stage, even if its gone the next day.
The near miss in early February, still within prime time still couldn't cut it. We need a direct hit or we get nothing in March. We've been so unlucky this year. Just about every other European country managed to get a direct hit of cold and snow this winter except for maybe Portugal. Even a direct hit after mid March snow melt will still be a problem during the day.
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23-02-2021, 08:36   #3546
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Both the 12z ECM and 18z GFS aren't far away from an easterly by 6 March (ECM only goes to 4 March but shows promise and GFS easterly is a near miss - but still...)
Greece gets the easterly on the 0Z. I'm sure it'll be back towards us on the 6z. Or completely gone altogether

Height roses from the start of March looks to be locked in at least, after that who knows where she goes. Pin a tail on the donkey until we get closer.
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23-02-2021, 12:17   #3547
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the cold spell will continue to get shifted around from one part of europe to another and delayed. Expect nothing as the chances of us getting a cold and snowy period in the next 2 to 3 weeks looks fairly remote. We may end up getting cold zonality but that limits snow mainly to hills and anything that falls would melt instantly by the middle of March.
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23-02-2021, 12:40   #3548
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The vortex moving to the arctic could allow heights to rise towards the north or northwest after the initial settled spell , so perhaps a north westerly or brief northerly airflow into the second week of March. A GFS run yesterday ended with a northerly.
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23-02-2021, 13:39   #3549
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The northerly yesterday only skimed Ireland and there wasn't anything other than a cool day associated with it and it was mostly dry as well which is the way most northerlies go for us. Snow was confined to mainly Scotland in that run.
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23-02-2021, 15:01   #3550
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The ECM extended is out and basically it is hinting at a dryer than average first half of March, especially for eastern and southern areas. The north and west will be closer to normal in terms of precipitation by the second week of March with hints of the Atlantic beginning to make inroads again. The first week of March will be very mild, perhaps 3 to 5C above average. Once we get to the second week of March temperatures will be back to more normal values.

The ECM is hinting at a return of the westerlies for the second half of March and it may become increasingly unsettled and perhaps slightly cooler if we have a north-west to south-east alignment of the low pressures in off the Atlantic.
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23-02-2021, 16:36   #3551
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Dryer than average is the buzz. It's a thumbs up from me.
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23-02-2021, 17:29   #3552
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Dryer than average is the buzz. It's a thumbs up from me.
Unfortunately as this is FI this dry spell is not guaranteed for any decent length of time. The 12z wants to to bring cooler weather in from the 3rd of March which develops into an easterly. Not a freezer easterly but a cool easterly which would bring days of rain showers to the eastern half of the country with wintryness on the hills. Hopefully this doesn't happen as it would not be pleasant. A 'flat' easterly in March is no longer bitterly cold, it needs to be a North easterly to bring temperatures down cold enough. By the end of March we would need a direct northerly from the pole in order to maintain wintryness. Easterlies can be very cold in the winter but they become milder as we move into the Spring and eventually warm by the end of Spring and into the start of summer.





Atlantic comes back a few days later with a cool north-west to south-east flow.

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23-02-2021, 18:02   #3553
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Well this is exciting...

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1...868772356?s=19
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24-02-2021, 12:32   #3554
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The ECM extended is out and basically it is hinting at a dryer than average first half of March, especially for eastern and southern areas. The north and west will be closer to normal in terms of precipitation by the second week of March with hints of the Atlantic beginning to make inroads again. The first week of March will be very mild, perhaps 3 to 5C above average. Once we get to the second week of March temperatures will be back to more normal values.

The ECM is hinting at a return of the westerlies for the second half of March and it may become increasingly unsettled and perhaps slightly cooler if we have a north-west to south-east alignment of the low pressures in off the Atlantic.
I will not be reading too much into those EC46 update after this winter, they have been wide of the mark alot, particularly for this Februray. Although it does look like the first week of March will be settled, with cold zonality likely after that . The chance of a deep cold spell is all but gone now, the best we can hope for is a decent northern toppler.
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24-02-2021, 14:09   #3555
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Even though the weather for the coming days will be nice will that mean this forum will be silent?

I enjoyed all the mini events of the past few weeks. Certainly not as boring as past Winters even though snow was minimal.

Maybe March can surprise us yet. I remember one night in March, oh it must be nearly 15 years ago now and the snow was up to our knees. It quickly turned to rain the next day but there was lumps of it for one or two days. Would that be too much to ask?
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