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10-02-2021, 07:37   #5911
M.T. Cranium
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Wednesday, 10 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



(Blog format today, trends are generally upward in temperature and precipitation and same old flat line for sunshine)

Cold air has deepened its presence somewhat overnight especially in the northern counties, and it now stands ready to battle the Atlantic which will be returning to its familiar haunts with a number of forays planned over the next three or four days.

Today, expect mostly cloudy skies but the odd sunny break possible especially away from the streamers which will be generally most frequent in these areas -- the southeast and near the south coast, central and northern Leinster occasionally into the midlands, and east Ulster as well as a persistent band near the north coast of Derry moving across Inishowen in north Donegal. All of these streamers can be described as mainly light but occasionally moderate in their intensity, and capable of dropping 2-5 cm snowfalls in their life cycles. Otherwise the day will be largely dry in quite a few places that don't see any streamer activity. Highs today will likely reach about 2 C again in most places, but could be held down a degree or two on higher terrain. Winds will start out easterly, but with a slow veering towards southeast late in the day, in the 40 to 70 km/hr range mainly. This will add about 3-5 deg of wind chill to actual temperatures.

Tonight, winds will be southeast 40-70 km/hr except in west Munster where they may increase to 60-90 km/hr. Cold air will be holding strong in most areas overnight and there could be some local clearing although some streamer activity and resultant snowfall will also continue, with the south coast becoming somewhat more prolific as a source due to the wind shift. Parts of Leinster and Ulster could see localized 2-5 cm snowfalls also. Lows will probably drop a bit from previous nights due to some clear patches developing, -4 to -2 C seems probable.

THURSDAY will start out cloudy and raw with southeast winds of 50-80 km/hr. Some locally heavy snow streamers could develop ahead of the main storm event but many areas will have a dry morning. Snow turning to sleet near coasts will move into west Munster; the snow will likely be heavy on higher ground in Kerry and Cork, but wet and sporadic on lower terrain. In that region, the sleet may turn to rain by afternoon and temperatures could rise rather steadily to around 7 C. Otherwise the cold air will be much more resistant (at first) and snow could break out around mid-day in many counties between the south coast and through the midlands into Connacht and south Ulster. Amounts by evening could be 5-10 cm and this could cause considerable travel disruption especially for inter-city road travel. This snow is only likely to change to sleet right along the south coast and a few kms inland at low elevations. Any hills in this zone could see 10-20 cm snow amounts. By late afternoon or evening heavy snow is possible in the southeast and up the east coast towards south Dublin. Amounts of 5-15 cm are possible, 10-25 cm on the higher ground in the southeast. Much of the guidance suggests that Dublin (city) will be in somewhat of a snow shadow situation due to downsloping from the nearby hills, and snow amounts there could increase more slowly than in other areas (this remains to be seen). Temperatures during the snow event will likely be in the range of -2 to +1 C. Winds will be southeast 40-70 km/hr although sometimes in periods of heavier snow, east 20-40 km/hr. Any onshore flows such as would be expected in central Wicklow and parts of Wexford or Carlow would have a potential to see enhanced amounts.

By THURSDAY NIGHT this snowfall will probably be weakening in general and also its western flanks will be changing over to sleet then rain as somewhat milder air creeps slowly further east, reaching perhaps a Sligo to Waterford line by about midnight or so. The rain in most cases will be rather light at first, becoming heavier later in the night in west Munster. Winds will continue southeast 40-60 km/hr where it is snowing or sleeting (and this activity will also be weaker in many cases), and will become south 50-80 km/hr in the milder sector with the rain. Temperatures will remain about zero to +1 C in the snow/sleet areas of east and northeast, and will rise to 4-5 C with the milder air oozing in (over snow that is melting, so some fog is likely with that).

By FRIDAY some areas of sleet and snow may still be present especially in North Leinster and Ulster, and the further push of mild air will come to a halt for a time, with temperatures 0-2 C in the northeast, and 5-8 C elsewhere. Rain may become heavy at times in the south especially near hills. Winds southerly 50-80 km/hr. Friday night could see a brief push back to the west of the colder air which will be taking advantage of a weaker portion of the incoming Atlantic frontal system at that time. This may turn the rain back to sleet or wet snow in some areas of Connacht and the midlands.

Then on SATURDAY the milder air will slowly start to gain further control but in doing so renewed snowfall or sleet could develop over parts of north Leinster and rain will spread further north and east once more. Eventually most of the guidance now agrees that milder air will push all the cold air out of Ireland and some parts of western Britain before running into greater resistance around central to eastern England. So for Ireland on Saturday, would expect most areas to be overcast with periods of rain and strong southerly winds 60-100 km/hr, with 20-40 mm rainfalls near the south coast, considerably less most other places, and temperatures 7-9 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will likely continue with the rain, wind and milder temperatures, and rainfalls could become heavy to excessive near the south coast. Where this rain falls over hills that develop a heavy snow cover, strong melt-driven runoff could lead to stream flooding in the southeast, south central and parts of the southwest as well as possibly Connemara. Temperatures will be near 8 C much of the time.

Now it should be said there is still a slight chance that most of this guidance is wrong about the mild victory over the cold and that the cold might put up a longer or more effective fight, so that needs to be watched, but the chances seem fairly good that mild is going to win based on the current model consensus. There will be times later in the week when renewed Atlantic systems come in but with some cooling of the general south to southwest flow between systems, they may not be starting off as mild as the previous system ended, so temperatures could fall back to the range of 2-5 C then go back up at intervals to around 8-10 C. Just looking at the guidance in broad general terms I would say there is likely a chance of one more cold spell taking place late in the month or more likely into early March. So I don't think this will be winter's "last hurrah" before a spring pattern dominates.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and briskly cold at -12 C, and by late evening it had fallen to near -20 C, the coldest night we have had this winter so far. We are on the outer edge of a vast frigid air mass covering almost all of Canada and the northern half of the central to eastern U.S., and readings as low as -45 to -50 can be found well to our north, while -30 is common across the prairies and -25 C in the U.S. midwest. A frontal boundary running from around Oklahoma to Virginia is creating weak disturbances that could bring snow along that path in the next few days, and it's a bit milder to the south (although not above regional normals, near 10 C in the southeastern states is near or a bit below their average at this time of year). The air mass reaching Ireland has its origins in Russia and came across the Baltic regions as well as Poland and Germany. In central Germany this morning some lows near -20 C are being reported, and -10 readings extend into parts of Belgium and the Netherlands. There are also some places in Scotland below -10 C at this hour although -5 C is a ballpark average there.

Unless I want to make a substantial change to the snowfall outlook for Thursday-Friday, there won't be an update issued but that will be assessed around 4-6 p.m. from later guidance.
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11-02-2021, 08:09   #5912
M.T. Cranium
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Thursday, 11 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Feb 2021

-- Temperatures will average near to 1.5 deg above normal values, with the milder readings in the south and west. Considering that today will average about 4 below normal, that indicates a fairly steady rise to above normal values.

-- Rainfall including melted equivalent of any snow or sleet (which may be considerable in some places) will range from twice normal in the south (possibly nearing three times normal over higher terrain) to closer to average in central and northeast counties, and perhaps 50% above normal in parts of Connacht.

-- Sunshine is going to be fairly limited with a lot of low overcast expected.


FORECASTS


TODAY ... Rain is moving into west Munster and will begin to turn over to sleet and snow inland and could become heavy at times over higher terrain in particular. The progress of the snow or sleet will slow down over the rest of the morning and while there may be sporadic outbreaks ahead of the main band from streamers, the onset of the wintry mix or snow will be around mid-day for central to eastern Munster and south Connacht, and afternoon for the rest of Connacht, the east midlands, and most of Leinster. This round of sleet and snow is likely to grind to a halt somewhere just north of Dublin so that some parts of north Leinster and Ulster may be waiting until the overnight hours to see the snowfall arrive, again with the exception of some streamer activity out ahead of that band. Even at this hour, snowfall amounts are rather difficult to estimate, and are likely to be quite variable from place to place. Some potential amounts could be lost to mixing with drizzle or freezing drizzle mixed with the snow in lower elevations near the south coast and perhaps further inland at times. The ballpark estimate where it does snow would be in the range of 3 to 8 cms, but some places could get just traces to 3 cms. Higher terrain may see 10-20 cm falls, in particular the eastern slopes of the Wicklow mountains look to be primed, as there could be sea-effect snow falling on higher slopes there. Coastal areas all around the south and east are going to be subject to some melting or just a change to cold rain at times. There is also fairly wide model support for a dry "shadow" effect to the northwest of the high ground in the inland southeast, but that would fade out if this snowfall overperforms. Winds today will be from the southeast at 40 to 70 km/hr, sometimes increasing to gusts near 80 km/hr, adding quite a raw feel to the temperatures which will be around 2-4 C before wintry mixtures or snow begins, falling back to 0-2 C in that sleet or snow. Parts of west Munster, especially coastal Kerry and southwest Cork, could see readings of 7 to 9 C and a wind shift to south-southeast.

TONIGHT the sleet and snow will continue to push slowly north and will begin to overspread parts of Ulster and north Leinster, while gradually ending further west. Snow may continue intermittently in south Leinster. Further accumulations of 5 to 15 cms are possible in a few places, 2 to 5 cms more widely. Some central counties will see a brief transition to light rain then foggy conditions as slightly milder air moves in over the slowly melting snow. Outbreaks of heavier rain may develop across west Munster and south Connacht at times, with 10-20 mm potential. Rather than specifying "lows" in this rising temperature regime, values will be around 7-10 C in the southwest, around 3-5 C over central counties, and 1-3 C in the east and north.

On FRIDAY the colder air will be confined to east coast counties and most of Ulster, but there will not be much further encroachment of the milder air with some continued outbreaks of snow and sleet in the northeast, drizzle or light rain in central counties, and occasional rain near the south and west coasts. Winds will remain southeast at about 30-50 km/hr in the east, and will turn more southerly elsewhere, increasing again to 60-90 km/hr. Temperatures will remain steady 1 to 4 C in the east, and will slowly rise elsewhere to around 7 C, 10 C in the southwest.

By SATURDAY the final push of milder air will begin, and this may lead to one last outbreak of sleet or snow in parts of Ulster, possibly inland Connacht and north Leinster, depending on where the fronts have settled by the time a new source of precipitation arrives from the south. This will be producing heavy rainfalls further south and with 20 to 40 mm potential, some flooding from snowmelt could begin. Temperatures will be slowly rising in all regions to reach highs late in the day near 8 C. Winds southerly 70 to 100 km/hr.

SUNDAY will then continue windy and milder with rain at times, and higher risks of flooding as the snowmelt will likely be nearly completed from the higher terrain by then. Highs 10 to 12 C and winds southerly 70 to 110 km/hr.

The OUTLOOK for next week is for relatively mild and occasionally wet weather to continue although there may be a few times where temperatures fall back to the 2-5 C range between mild sectors of incoming lows. As the very cold air is only going to be pushed east about as far as Norway and Germany, it won't be that far away to provide the potential for a renewed cold spell; some guidance suggests that the high pressure area associated will in fact push back west but in such a way as to promote a mild southeast flow of drier air later next week, with that the overnight lows could fall back to frosty levels at times but daytime highs would be quite a bit milder than this current spell.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with cloudy intervals and rather cold at -8 C. We are going to be staying near the outer edges of a vast pool of arctic air that has seen temperatures well below -20 C over most of the prairies and northern plains states. This cold air has come to a halt trying to move south and a sleet-snow mixture is falling over Virginia and Maryland with snow across Ohio and Pennsylvania. This will all move further east today and several more disturbances are expected in the same general pattern over the next week or so, with the severe cold staying more confined to the Great Lakes region and eastern Canada.

Astronomy note: new moon occurs today at 1906h (7:06 p.m.) IST. This will produce some high tidal levels along the east and south coasts with the onshore winds expected today. We can't currently see the planets Jupiter and Saturn which are now more or less behind the Sun on the opposite side of the solar system from us. Mars on the other hand is easily found in the night sky, and is approaching the constellation Taurus and the Pleiades, when I was out looking at the clear skies here recently I spotted it almost overhead and looking like a twin of the brightest star in Taurus, reddish Aldebaran (on the other side of the sky, Antares is similar in appearance and its name means "rival of Mars.") Now that we've passed Mars and it's considerably further away than last autumn, it is no longer as prominent.
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12-02-2021, 07:28   #5913
M.T. Cranium
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Friday, 12 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, the smaller departures expected in Ulster and Leinster.
-- Rainfall will average about 2 to 3 times normal amounts across the south, then closer to average in central and northern regions where some of that will be snow overnight and on Saturday.
-- Sunshine will start to appear a little but probably won't surpass half of the normal mid-February amounts.


FORECASTS (and a recap of Thursday's weather outcomes)

On THURSDAY the expected snow only materialized in Connacht and some parts of Munster, and was largely absent from Leinster. In fact, the snowfalls exceeded most forecasts in Galway and Mayo, were about as expected in Clare and some parts of Tipperary, and otherwise did not take place further east. The culprit was dry air at lower levels, some snow was falling into this dry layer and evaporated. Also the system turned out to be weaker in the east and stronger in the west than most guidance suggested. So that's where the expected snow went. The snow has largely stopped falling except for some light flurries here and there; more is expected to develop tonight.

FRIDAY (TODAY) will continue cloudy, windy and cold in most areas, with slightly milder air making a very slow advance into western counties as snow gradually melts there. That will lead to fog over hills especially, and a gradual rise to near 4 C with drizzle at times. The eastern half of Connacht, the midlands, southeast and parts of north Leinster will remain cold and largely dry with a few flurries or patchy drizzle, southeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr and temperatures steady in the range of 2 to 4 C. Most of Ulster will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures around 1 to 3 C.

TONIGHT as rain moves a little further east and begins to get heavier near the south coast, areas of sleet and snow are expected to develop over central and eastern Connacht, the midlands, and some although not all parts of the southeast. The same dry air problem may prevent some of the snow from being very heavy in Leinster, but 7 to 12 cm falls are expected in parts of Connacht and west, south Ulster by mid-day Saturday. The possible range for Leinster may be more like 1 to 5 cm, or even some local trace amounts, but we will keep an eye on this and possibly update amounts for Leinster closer to the time. ... Temperatures tonight will start out near 4 C in the south and west, and could rise slowly there. Readings near -1 to +1 C are likely elsewhere, where snow develops, rising slowly to +2 or +3 C as snow begins to mix with rain. Winds southeast 40 to 60 km/hr except stronger near the south coast at times (southerly 60 to 90 km/hr). About 10-20 mm rainfalls are expected in parts of Kerry, Cork, Waterford and Wexford.

SATURDAY will see the snow, sleet and rain areas all moving further northeast and eventually the wintry forms of precipitation will end leaving the entire country with rain and strong southerly winds 70 to 110 km/hr, and fog will also be rather widespread especially over areas of melting snow. Temperatures will rise to 10-12 C in the south and west, and 7-9 C over snow covered areas leading to a rapid melt. About 20-40 mm rainfalls are expected and some flooding is likely especially where streams are swollen with mountain runoff that may include snow melt.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy and mild, south winds at 70 to 110 km/hr, temperatures steady 8 to 12 C and some patchy rainfalls that will be heavier in the south and west, where a further 15-30 mm could fall. Any flooding will be maintained or get slightly worse as a result.

The rest of next week looks fairly mild also, with highs between 6 and 10 C on most days, and winds generally south to southwest. There will probably be several intervals of rain with brief dry spells between them.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and bitterly cold, highs were only around -14 C with a frigid breeze from the north. Lows could fall to around -25 C here overnight. This very cold air now covers just about all of Canada, and the northern half of the U.S. to the east of the Rockies; somewhat milder in the south with outbreaks of snow, sleet and freezing rain along the frontal boundaries which are generally around the latitude of Oklahoma City to Richmond Virginia now. Dallas Fort Worth area in Texas is under an alert for an unusual cold wave after the weekend with snow and record cold temperatures predicted. That's basically the air mass over my part of the world now heading south behind a developing storm system.
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13-02-2021, 06:56   #5914
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Saturday, 13 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 150% to 250% of normal, heaviest in the south.
-- Sunshine will average 50% of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Snow across parts of the east and north will gradually mix with sleet, ice pellets and then rain, with temperatures slowly rising to around 4-6 C by late in the day, winds southeast 50-80 km/hr easing somewhat by afternoon. Some parts of Ulster can still expect a further 10 cms snow with the changeover there coming during the mid-day to afternoon hours. Becoming rather foggy over any areas of lying snow once somewhat milder air arrives. Poor driving conditions can be expected in most parts of Ulster, Leinster and Connacht until the changeover is fully established and even then strong wind gusts, fog and ponding of runoff may create road hazards that will also be present in the rest of Ireland. The rest of the country having already warmed to around 3-5 C with rain, will see further outbreaks of heavy rain at times with 15-30 mm potential, winds southerly at about 70-110 km/hr but easing slightly later. Flood risk especially in vicinity of streams flowing out of higher terrain where snow could be melting. Temperatures around 8-10 C by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Foggy and occasionally wet with moderate southerly winds 50-70 km/hr, lows near 4 C north and east, to 7 C south and west. Remaining snow melting steadily, some areas of dense fog likely in the north especially over higher terrain.

SUNDAY ... Becoming very windy with outbreaks of heavy rain, flood potential high in some areas. highs 10-13 C, winds southerly 70-110 km/hr with potential for higher gusts near coasts, 15-30 mm rainfall in some parts of the south.

MONDAY ... Moderate southwest winds again becoming strong for a time late in the day, occasional rain, lows near 5 and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, moderate southwest winds, lows near 4 and highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat cooler mid-week with temperatures closer to 7 C daytime and 2 C overnight, occasional rain with some sleet on hills, then milder again by Friday-Saturday with southwest winds continuing most of the time.

The pattern after this coming week looks broadly similar for the rest of February with passing fronts, generally mild temperatures and occasional strong wind gusts. There are hints of a much colder interval near the end of the month or around the first of March.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with increasing high cloud and it remained quite cold at around -10 C. They are preparing for wintry weather in New Mexico and Texas as this very cold air pushes all the way south into northern Mexico by Sunday and Monday. The east coast of the U.S. can expect a number of mixed precipitation events as the storm track runs right up along the coastal plain rather than out to sea where it can deliver snow to the big cities, instead the snows are going to be over the higher ground of the Appalachian Mountains.
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14-02-2021, 07:22   #5915
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Sunday, 14 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become very windy especially near Atlantic coasts, where south to southwest winds of 70 to 120 km/hr are expected. Strongest wind gusts are expected around noon to 3 p.m. in Connacht and a bit later than that in Donegal, with a risk of coastal flooding at high tides. Elsewhere, 60 to 100 km/hr will be the general range in exposed areas, with 40 to 70 km/hr inland. Quite mild with highs 11-13 C and some outbreaks of rain with variable amounts of cloud that might include some brighter spells. Any high elevation lying snow will melt quickly adding to stream runoff, rainfalls generally 5-10 mm but some places in hilly terrain could see 10-20 mm.

TONIGHT will be breezy and mild with occasional rain, lows 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY will be overcast and mild with moderate southwest winds, 40 to 70 km/hr. There will be a spell of stronger winds by evening and into the overnight hours. Highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY will be overcast with moderate southwest winds again after the overnight gales subside, and rain will become rather persistent with 10-20 mm expected, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be slightly cooler with occasional showers, highs near 8 C.

THURSDAY will also be a somewhat cooler day with some rain at times, highs near 7 C. Becoming windy by evening with heavy rain likely, temperatures may then rise somewhat.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are expected to see the arrival of very mild air from the central Atlantic and highs could reach 12 to 14 C, in southwest winds with some rain at times.

The pattern for the following week becomes mild and dry, relatively speaking, with temperatures continuing above normal for the week but rainfall less frequent, some chance of a few really pleasant early spring days (which will be welcome after the spell we've just seen out). Maps are indicating some risk of a colder spell developing at the end of the month into early March.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast although the sun was dimly visible and it was not quite as cold as recent days with a high near -6 C. Some light snow is developing overnight here. An unusually severe wintry blast is hitting Colorado and New Mexico today and will move into Texas overnight, bringing snow and sub-freezing temperatures to places that rarely see such conditions. Freezing rain has left some nasty conditions along parts of the east coast but a slow thaw is likely today and into Monday, then rain from the same storm I mentioned for Texas will arrive with the snow moving further inland up the Appalachian mountain chain.
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15-02-2021, 07:07   #5916
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Monday, 15 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 Feb 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal, possibly a bit above normal in places.
-- Sunshine will average near normal too, as the overcast begins to break at times.


FORECASTS

TODAY some blustery showers will move northeast through the morning hours, with a slight risk of a thunderstorm. Some brighter intervals will follow this afternoon, quite mild at 11-13 C. About 10 mm of rain could fall in some of the heavier showers. Winds south to southwest 50 to 70 km/hr.

TONIGHT will become very windy in parts of Connacht and Donegal, with southwest winds 70-110 km/hr and a risk of coastal flooding. Other regions will be windy also, in the 50-80 km/hr range. Some rain at times, mild with lows around 7 C.

TUESDAY will be mainly cloudy with occasional rain, heavy at times, 10-20 mm expected, and highs near 10 C with moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with rain becoming heavier in the late afternoon or evening, and highs will reach 7 C. The rain could turn to sleet or wet snow for a time over higher ground in the overnight hours into early Thursday.

THURSDAY will be a rather cold day with gradual clearing skies after the morning sleety mix, then increasing cloud and strong southerly winds will arrive during the night with another risk of sleet or snow at first. Highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY will be windy with rain, heavy at times, and milder with highs 11-13 C. Winds south to southwest 70-110 km/hr.

SATURDAY will be mild with showers, highs near 12 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and mild with isolated showers, highs near 11 C.

The OUTLOOK for next week is for further mild weather until near the end of the month, then a gradual change to much colder weather is expected, lasting into the first few days of March.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a bit of light snow, then sunshine breaking through towards the late afternoon, staying rather cold with highs near -6 C. It has turned very cold with snow across most of Texas and New Mexico, and a second snowstorm is expected mid-week in the south central states, but the storm track has now shifted a bit to the northwest over the east coast allowing the coastal cities to avoid wintry outcomes from these two storms as they move northeast, and placing the snow further inland, in fact by Friday it will be the Midwest and lower Great Lakes looking at potential for a snowstorm. The very cold regime in most of North America looks like it will just modify in place rather gradually over the following week as the flow returns to a more normal west to east or zonal pattern.
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16-02-2021, 07:00   #5917
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Tuesday, 16 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, heaviest west central counties.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent below normal in south and east.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers, becoming more overcast around mid-day. There may be a brief interval of dry weather generally by late afternoon in advance of the next area of rain expected overnight. Winds will subside to more moderate levels and remain southwesterly at about 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will bring intervals of moderate rainfall, 5-10 mm expected, lows near 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will see this rainfall ending during the morning, followed by variable cloud and isolated showers, another interval of heavier rain expected by evening. Highs 8 to 10 C in the south but only 5 to 7 C in the north where it will feel quite cold.

THURSDAY will have an early morning rainfall event of 10-20 mm that could mix with sleet over higher ground. Some parts of the western coastal counties may see 20-30 mm rainfalls with this low tracking through central counties overnight. Strong south to southwest winds for a time near the southeast coasts, but these will not affect other regions. Later in the day, partial clearing and rather cool, temperatures steady 4-6 C from overnight into the daytime hours (except 8-10 C briefly in the southeast).

FRIDAY will see another overnight rainfall to start the day and this rain could be quite heavy in places with 30-50 mm potential. Winds becoming strong south to southwest 70-110 km/hr. Temperatures climbing to 10-12 C and staying in that range to about Saturday morning, with the rain still going by then.

SATURDAY will start out wet especially in the east, but the rain will finally end and push east, leaving a partly cloudy day with highs near 9 C.

SUNDAY will have variable cloud, showers, southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr and highs near 10 C.

The OUTLOOK for next week is for near average conditions to late in the week, then colder weather returning by the end of the month and persisting for several days into March.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with light snow, about 3-5 cm accumulated, and temperatures got slightly milder, reaching -3 C.
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17-02-2021, 07:40   #5918
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Wednesday, 17 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, heaviest in the southwest.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers at first, becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon, staying dry in places before rain develops late afternoon or evening near the south coast. Winds moderate southwest 40 to 60 km/hr will begin to increase near the south coast late afternoon, highs reaching 8 C.

TONIGHT will be windy with rain heavy at times, southerly gales 70-100 km/hr developing at least over some parts of the south and east, depending on the track of a low expected to cross some parts of Ireland tonight. Further west, it's less likely to be windy until late overnight after the low has cleared through to the north, then westerly winds of 40 to 70 km/hr will develop. Winds veering to southwest further east towards morning. About 15-25 mm of rain is likely in many areas, and it could turn to sleet over higher parts of west Munster and Connacht, as temperatures there will drop off to around 2 C, while staying milder in the east at 7-9 C.

THURSDAY will be cool and breezy with passing showers, some heavy with hail or thunder especially over parts of Connacht and west Ulster. Southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, highs 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will become windy with rain heavy at times, and temperatures will peak at around 12 C mid-day before dropping back slightly, winds south to southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, and 20-40 mm rainfalls possible (heavier in the hilly regions of south and west).

SATURDAY the rain will begin to taper off to showers during the morning and there could be partial clearing later, with temperatures between 8 and 10 C in moderate southwesterly winds.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Monday will probably be a bit cooler again (7-9 C) with some rain at times, then milder with some rain expected for Tuesday (10-12 C) before a gradual cooling trend sets in that brings temperatures down to average or even slightly below average values late in the month (6-8 C), as the flow turns westerly and sometimes a bit northwesterly. This period will be generally a bit drier with only small amounts of precipitation.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light snow melting on roads and adding just a slight coating elsewhere, as temperatures edged up to near +1 C. The unusual cold outbreak in Texas has now spread all through the Gulf coast region with a second snowfall event tonight (local time) moving through Oklahoma and Arkansas, scattered outbreaks of freezing rain further south. A rather disorganized storm is developing over the Gulf of Mexico and will tag along behind the snowfall to produce a complicated mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain for the east coast states on Thursday and Friday. The heaviest snow looks like it will stay inland at least as far north as New York City where it might reach the coast until the storm leaves Friday night. This one will reach Ireland in some form around late Monday into Tuesday of next week. The severe cold spell seems to be slowly easing over central North America with more of a west to east flow developing next week. Chicago has had one of its coldest periods in a long time with an average temperature 7 C deg below normal so far this month, and also heavy snowfalls with almost 50 cms on the ground. This severe cold moderates gradually until anomalies are closer to zero in New England and even slightly above normal in some areas further south, but the recent cold wave in Texas saw some daily departures from normal approaching 25 to 30 C deg below normal. (It was so cold at DFW that the record low maximum on Tuesday was below the previous record low minimum, something quite rare for any weather station with a long period of record, and their previous record was in 1909 for that date -- 31/15 F replaced by this year's 14/4, later dropping to -2 F on the 16th which is -19 C, only twice in the past has it been colder than that, in 1899 and 1949).
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18-02-2021, 07:21   #5919
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Thursday, 18 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



The trends remain on the mild side of normal with frequent rainfalls and limited but near average amounts of sunshine.

A rather vigorous low tracked through Ireland overnight, its effects ranged from snow or sleet in some higher western locations, to strong wind gusts around Dublin and the coastal southeast around 0200h. Tracking another system like this with potential to cause some active weather on Saturday. But before that arrives, a larger scale rain and wind system will move through on Friday morning.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather breezy and cool with bands of showery rain and some thundery cells embedded in western counties, where 5-10 mm further rainfalls are expected (2-5 mm elsewhere). Any morning sunshine is likely to fade behind extensive cloud by afternoon, showers will be more isolated at least this morning in eastern counties. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr, highs near 7 C.

TONIGHT may start out rather chilly especially in parts of Leinster and Ulster with evening lows of 2-5 C but further west milder air will already be arriving and this will rapidly spread east, with heavy rain following on strong southerly winds increasing to 70-110 km/hr by morning. Temperatures will be on the rise after midnight wherever they might be below 5 C, to the 9-10 C range by dawn.

FRIDAY will start out very windy with heavy rain at times, a total of 15-30 mm expected. Conditions will improve slightly for the afternoon with partial clearing in some western counties and rain tapering to showers further east. Highs 10-12 C around mid-day, could fall off slightly in the west after mid-afternoon.

SATURDAY will be breezy to windy and rather mild in the east, as another fast-moving low develops and tracks from south coast to Ulster late in the day. This one might not encounter cold enough air to turn the precipitation over to sleet or snow like last night's low, but there will be a temperature gradient from near 5 C northwest, to 12 C southeast, as the low arrives. This could create a squall line feature and thunderstorms, and strong gusty winds from the south veering to southwest with gusts above 80 km/hr.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and less windy with moderate temperatures, highs near 9 C.

Around MONDAY-TUESDAY another strong low is expected, probably not until Monday night into Tuesday morning, and that one will also produce strong south to southwest winds and briefly heavy rainfalls. Temperatures will be around 10 C.

The rest of next week looks a bit more settled with some influence of high pressure likely by about Thursday and Friday, when it might turn a bit colder. Low pressure areas are likely to return to the weather picture after that but with cooler air in place, either a chilly rainfall or a sleety mix is possible from these around the last weekend of this month into early March.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with some nice sunny intervals, and while we're still in a cool modified arctic air mass, the stronger sun could be felt and it resulted in an afternoon high a little above freezing for a change. The east coast of the U.S. are bracing for a nasty mixture of snow and sleet as mild Gulf air is streaming in over top of an extensive shallow cold air mass trapped under higher pressure; it doesn't look as though this cold layer will be disrupted but temperatures will stay just below freezing and the mixed precipitation will fall mostly as sleet but in some areas as freezing rain (which is a lot more damaging to trees and infrastructure). About 10-20 cm snowfalls are also expected in the opening phases of this mixed event. Parts of Texas are still without electricity after their snow and ice storm earlier this week. Similar conditions may appear in places notably Mississippi, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina and Maryland, as the storm moves further east today.
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19-02-2021, 07:58   #5920
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Friday, 19 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 Feb 2021

-- Temperatures will average about 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 per cent above normal, with higher amounts possible in the south.
-- Sunshine will average near normal, improving later in the week.


FORECASTS

TODAY the heaviest rain and strongest winds have just about peaked across the south and east, and while it will remain blustery and showery, there should be some improvements to conditions especially by the afternoon by which time it should be less windy with only isolated showers. About 15 mm of rain has fallen in some areas and 10 to 15 mm additional could fall in the next few hours. In a few parts of west Munster this could lead to localized flooding from small stream runoff overflowing. Highs today around 12 C and winds southerly, currently in the 70 to 100 km/hr range in places, moderating to 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon.

TONIGHT will see further isolated showers and moderate southerly winds, mild with lows 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will be quite mild with southerly winds reaching 70 to 110 km/hr at times by mid-day and afternoon, except near the west coast where the centre of low pressure moving north will have slacker gradients and locally winds could be easterly to northerly as the low tracks past in the afternoon. This low may generate a blustery cold front with squall line potential although current guidance keeps that potential non-severe. Highs near 11 C except closer to 7 C in some parts of the northwest. Temperatures will fall gradually later in the day.

SUNDAY will become more pleasant with some sunny intervals and generally more moderate wind speeds in the 40 to 70 km/hr range. Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

MONDAY will have a rather chilly start with morning lows 2 to 5 C, light winds will give way to increasing southerly winds of 70 to 100 km/hr by late afternoon, and a peak near 80 to 120 km/hr is possible overnight as a strong frontal system crosses the country with heavy rainfalls returning for much of the overnight period, lasting into TUESDAY when it will continue windy with heavy rainfalls tapering gradually to showers, winds veering to southwest 60 to 90 km/hr before finally abating late in the day, with temperatures steady near 9 C. There appears to be potential for 40 to 60 mm rainfall totals in parts of the south and possibly elsewhere in the two-day life cycle of this storm system.

The rest of next week then looks more settled, with guidance somewhat split on the details. Some guidance builds up strong high pressure right over Ireland for several days near the end of the month. Other guidance prefers to keep the high pressure over France and maintains a gentle southwest flow for Ireland that becomes stronger towards the last day of the month. Either way it would likely be around 10 C with some sunshine each day, but the more mobile option would include some chances for showers along weak frontal systems. The colder spell that had been anticipated is now moved back into early March and takes on more of a northerly look, as earlier this high had been expected to be further north to promote cool easterly flow. Looks like we're getting back to the familiar guidance tendency to present and then remove from view cold spells about two weeks into the future.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy and rather cold until mid afternoon when it turned more unsettled with a driving wet snowfall that amounted to at least 5 cms and has since tapered off to snow grains, temperatures in the range of -5 to -3 C throughout. The east coast storm came as expected although some places had less snow than forecast and more sleet instead (notably Washington and Baltimore which should maybe form some sort of international bond such as various cities enjoy, with weather enthusiasts in Ireland after this winter). The light snow continues in some parts of New England. This low will track on further to the east and become the more powerful storm expected in Ireland by Monday night. At some point around the central Atlantic Sunday night, this storm will be at near hurricane strength north of the Azores so the west coast of Ireland can expect some robust waves and swells with this storm upon arrival. It won't be that strong when it does arrive, also its core will remain out to the northwest of Donegal Bay and rotate back around south of Iceland. Rainfalls could be the main story with it.
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20-02-2021, 06:53   #5921
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Saturday, 20 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average at least 50 per cent above normal values.
-- Sunshine will come in close to average thanks mostly to better prospects for sunshine late in this interval.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become windy with outbreaks of rain, showery at first, then with some rather blustery showers and thunderstorms mainly focused on a cold front that will develop when low pressure arrives from the south by afternoon and reaches Galway, at this point (around 3-4 p.m.) a squall line feature is possible from east Galway through the midlands to the inland southeast, and some heavy showers and thunderstorms with strong wind gusts may develop. Winds in general will be southerly 50 to 80 km/hr veering to southwest 60 to 100 km/hr, but gusts to 110 km/hr are possible near this front along with hail and thunder. Temperatures will be steady around 10 to 12 C ahead of the front, and will drop to around 7 C after it passes. Some west coast locations may see intervals of less windy weather near the time that the low is passing due to its slack gradients near the core. But even so, winds in all areas will increase at some point later in the day when the low has passed by. About 15 to 30 mm rainfalls are possible, heavier amounts expected to be in the south coast counties and near the Atlantic coasts where it may be more of a steady downpour than a showery event.

TONIGHT will be blustery with passing showers, or longer intervals of light rain in some northern areas, a further 5 to 10 mm may fall there, with lows generally about 6 C and winds southwest 40 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated in western and northern counties for the most part, and moderate southwest winds in the 40 to 70 km/hr range. Highs will be around 10 C.

MONDAY will start out dry and rather cold after morning lows of 2 to 5 C. For a while it will be relatively calm and bright, then with increasing cloud and southerly winds building in the afternoon, rain will sweep in from the southwest late in the day. Highs will be around 10 C but temperatures will be steady or rising slightly by evening. MONDAY NIGHT will be stormy with 30 to 50 mm rainfall potential in the 24 hours ending late Tuesday, and southerly winds 70 to 110 km/hr.

TUESDAY will continue very windy and wet as the rain continues for much of the day before finally tapering off to showers by evening. Winds continuing south to southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, temperatures in the 10 to 13 C range.

Flooding risks will be considerable by Tuesday morning into the rest of the day due to the persistent moderate to heavy rainfall rates. Another point of interest may be high waves and swells likely to develop as this storm will have had some intense phases while crossing the Atlantic, more so than its intensity near Ireland -- around Sunday night it could be as deep as 940 mbs north of the Azores, but luckily the intense centre weakens and rotates around towards Iceland and keeps away from the Irish coast, although the frontal systems it creates are strong enough to make it appear likely that perhaps orange level two warnings will be required at least in coastal counties.

WEDNESDAY will bring gradual improvements although it will still be somewhat unsettled and breezy with highs around 9 C.

The interval from THURSDAY to SUNDAY ending out this rather active weather month will perhaps be a contrast in terms of more sunshine and less wind than we have seen for quite some time, guidance has begun to come together on the idea of high pressure being fairly close to Ireland in this interval even though there are some signs of weak frontal passages in the westerly flow around the top of the high pressure. This won't be a cold high but nights may get a little cooler due to the clearer skies and lighter winds, while days remain in the near average 8 to 11 C range.

My local weather on Friday here was overcast with temperatures just around freezing, a rather drab looking day that I decided looked better from inside than out. The finishing stages of the east coast storm proved to be fairly tame other than a slight top up to the light snowfalls in New England, but the low has only now begun to form a more intense core and will be steadily deepening over the weekend on its way to the central Atlantic.
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21-02-2021, 07:42   #5922
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Sunday, 21 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 Feb 2021

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal, mildest around Tuesday.
-- Rainfall will average twice normal values in the west, about 50% above normal in the south, and closer to average amounts elsewhere.
-- Sunshine will average near normal thanks to an improving trend later in this weekly interval.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy in most regions with just isolated showers, but there will be more widespread and sometimes heavy or thundery showers near the west coast. With lighter winds it will be relatively pleasant with highs around 10 C.

TONIGHT the showers will gradually die out and a clearing trend will follow, rather cold in most areas with lows falling to 1 to 4 C.

MONDAY will start out bright and cool, and for the first half of the day relatively calm, then a southerly wind will begin to increase along with cloud spreading in ahead of a powerful frontal system, winds by late afternoon will increase to 50-80 km/hr. Highs near 10 C.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY will be windy and wet with temperatures steady in the 12 to 14 C range, southerly winds will slowly veer more to the southwest in the 70 to 110 km/hr range at their peak which is likely to be late overnight to mid-day Tuesday. Heavy rain will develop and spread up the western side of the country with 30-40 mm amounts expected, leading to localized flooding. While it will be frequently showery elsewhere with 20-30 mm totals, the flood potential will be less significant away from the south coast (and parts of the west as indicated).

WEDNESDAY this system will begin to die out but not before continuing the wet weather for the first part of the day in the east, while gradual clearing spreads into the west. Lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY will become partly cloudy and a little cooler with moderate southwest winds, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

A high pressure area will build up later in the week and should control the weather pattern for several days through the final weekend of February. Guidance is not particularly unified on the details however. Some depictions show a relatively mild southwest flow continuing, while other maps suggest the high will get very close to Ireland and possibly build up further to the north allowing for a cooler southeast flow eventually. Either way it's likely to be dry with temperatures not too far from 10 C daytimes and 3-5 C for overnight lows (could drop lower if the high is in fact right over the country at any point). Any cooler turn to temperatures would be home-grown as the former frigid air mass lurking over western Europe earlier this month has been pushed back into the northern half of Russia. However, some charts are now suggesting that eventually, a new cold spell could develop from a northerly origin some time in March.

My local weather on Saturday was a bit milder again with a few melting snowflakes at times, highs near 3 C. As of 0600h, the Atlantic storm due to influence Ireland on Tuesday was located about 200 miles southeast of St John's Newfoundland (980 mbs) and is predicted to deepen to 948 mbs around 50N 30W mid-day Monday. Hurricane force winds will develop out in the central Atlantic at that time, but this intense storm then slowly weakens and rotates around to the south of Iceland. Even so, this will send large waves and swells further east in the Atlantic and the circulation will continue to be quite strong well out to the east of the low itself, where the frontal systems will be pushing towards Ireland by Monday night.
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22-02-2021, 07:28   #5923
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Monday, 22 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Feb 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal values, although with a trend towards near average later in the interval.
-- Rainfall will average 50 per cent above normal in some parts of the south and west, locally twice normal in parts of Kerry, Cork and possibly also Connemara in Galway, but closer to average in other parts of the country.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal thanks to a brighter trend later in this week.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out cool and bright with gradually increasing cloud and a rising southerly wind not becoming too noticeable until afternoon. Highs will be 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will become windy with outbreaks of rain becoming heavy at times in the southwest and later in other parts of the south and west generally, 20 to 40 mm potential with southerly winds 70 to 110 km/hr in exposed locations and 50 to 80 km/hr more generally. Temperatures steady 10 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will see further outbreaks of rain and strong south to southwest winds gradually easing slightly by afternoon, after starting out in the 70 to 110 km/hr range. Highs 12 to 14 C. A further 10 to 30 mm of rain is possible and by morning there could be ongoing flood problems in heavy rainfall zones, notably around south Kerry and southwest Cork hilly terrain and streams draining that region.

WEDNESDAY will be showery with more moderate southwest winds of 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY will become partly cloudy to sunny with only a few isolated showers left, lows near 2 C and highs 8 to 11 degrees.

From FRIDAY to SUNDAY high pressure will be nearby and it should be dry in most areas except for some occasional light rain reaching the west coast from dying out frontal systems, even those might not produce much more than traces of rain. Highs each day in this dry spell around 9 to 11 C and lows -2 to +2 C. It should be at least partly sunny and there's some chance of longer intervals of sunshine especially over the southeast and east.

This high may eventually reposition somewhat further north and drag in some slightly colder surface layers so that temperatures may stall out around 8 to 10 C for a while once March begins, but guidance is flopping around quite a bit for March at this point and there have been some model runs that look quite warm replacing those colder looks we were seeing a while ago. The flow pattern has begun to return to more normal "zonal" flow patterns now that the last stages of that stratospheric warming event are dying out.

My local weather was cloudy with highs near -1 C. Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana have come out of the deep freeze although it is still quite a bit colder than average there with some snow left in places.
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23-02-2021, 07:51   #5924
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Tuesday, 23 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY: At this hour (0800h) heaviest rainfalls have shifted to Connacht and west Ulster as a wave formed overnight in the southwest flow, rainfall rates of about 5 mm an hour can be expected for a few more hours there with rapid increases in local stream flows. For the time being, Munster seems to be into a drier portion of this system after overnight rainfalls of 15-25 mm, hopefully there will be a relative lull in the rainfall there as there isn't a lot showing on satellite imagery for the immediate future, however moderate rainfall bursts will probably resume either this afternoon or evening if there is in fact a break for the south. It will get quite mild this afternoon, reaching 12-14 C, and the strong southerly winds will probably moderate slightly although staying in the 50-80 km/hr range when they do (currently some gusts to 100-110 km/hr in exposed areas).

TONIGHT: Some further intervals of rain with 10-15 mm potential, staying mild with lows 7 to 9 C, south to southwest winds at 50 to 80 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... some rain will continue in the morning in parts of the east while other regions begin to dry out, with partly cloudy skies and more isolated outbreaks of light rain possible later, in moderate southwest winds, highs around 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, cool with passing showers, some locally heavy with hail or thunder (western counties most likely to see these). Lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, light winds. Lows near 2 C and highs near 10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy with sunny spells likely, light winds, a return to frosts at night for some. Lows around -2 to +2 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Near average and becoming a bit more unsettled by middle of first week of March although not too active a pattern, temperatures near 10 C daytime hours.

My local weather on Monday was overcast and mild with one brief interval of sleet, highs near 4 C. Much milder or warmer for southern states across the central regions of the U.S. where some places are 30 degrees warmer (in C deg) than they were last week at this time. For example, the high on Monday in Houston was 25 C.
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24-02-2021, 06:43   #5925
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Wednesday, 24 February, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 24 Feb to 2 Mar 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values (which at this point are around 10-11 C daytimes, 3-4 C overnight).
-- Rainfall will average about 50% of normal, and most of that will be today and tomorrow with a welcome dry spell looming for the rest of this seven day interval (not totally dry in the west where small amounts could fall on a couple of days).
-- Sunshine will be at least normal and possibly as much as 50% above in some places, away from what may be cloudier south coast counties.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see some additional rainfall, mainly in the southern third of the country and possibly at times in central counties, but amounts should be less prolific than recently, at around 5-15 mm. There will be a slow clearing trend from the west but its progress will be minimal beyond central Connacht to northwest Munster. With the partial clearing some sunny breaks are likely with patchy marine layer clouds moving in. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will see partial clearing and lows 2 to 5 C. There may still be isolated outbreaks of light rain in a few spots.

THURSDAY will be breezy and somewhat colder with highs 8-10 C. A few passing showers are likely in most places and they may be locally and briefly heavy in the west to central counties. Winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr.

FRIDAY will become much less breezy and it should be a pleasant day with near average temperatures of 2-4 C in the morning and 8-11 C in the afternoon. Some sunshine is likely but a very weak front will be dying out near the west coast by afternoon and could bring at least full cloud cover for a time if not a bit of drizzly light rain.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY look settled and partly cloudy, highs both days near 10 C after morning slight frosts in some areas, and more sunshine is likely further north as a weak southeast breeze may be bringing in cloud layers from the Celtic Sea originating from a weak disturbance embedded in the high pressure area over northwest France. That weak system may eventually drift up over west Munster by Monday with local showers, otherwise this high should hold on to control of the weather pattern for a few days into March before a more variable pattern emerges. Some guidance is back to showing a cold outbreak towards the second week of March, what I take from that is that very warm weather is probably not the most likely next step after the high, would bet that it stays fairly bland and near normal for a while as the flow over North America is somewhat neutral in terms of firing up the jet stream.

My local weather on Tuesday was relatively pleasant with some sunny intervals, shower formations over the local mountains dropping snow pellets on higher terrain but it played out as virga down in the valley where I happened to be at the time, also it was a bit milder down there at 9 C, up here it was probably closer to 4 C. There is a 500m elevation difference so this is fairly normal especially in unsettled weather patterns with stronger "lapse rates."
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