[M.T. Cranium]

Table of forecasts -- February 2021


FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Low max, loc'n


___ NormaL __________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ +3.0 (loc'n by climat)


Eon1208 _____________ 5.0 _ 15.9 _ -6.2 _ 119 _ 096 ___ +0.5 Mullingar

Kindred Spirit _________ 5.0 _ 14.4 _ -7.0 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 0.0 Markree

john mac _____________5.0 _ 12.5 _ -5.5 _ 110 _ 106 ___ +2.2 Markree

Tae laidir _____________4.9 _ 14.3 _ -8.0 _ 084 _ 108 ___ +0.4 Ballyhaise

MrSkinner ____________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ -7.9 _ 079 _ 109 ___ +0.9 Markree

WesternStorm _________4.8 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 105 _ 098 ____ 0.0 Knock

Jpmarn ______________ 4.8 _ 14.8 _ -7.8 _ 115 _ 110 ___ -0.8 Knock

sryanbruen ___________ 4.7 _ 15.1 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 100 ___ +0.8 Knock

waterways ____________4.7 _ 14.5 _ -9.5 _ 095 _ 107 ___ +0.6 Mount Dillon

CirrusBusiness ________ 4.7 _ 14.2 _ -9.3 _ 080 _ 105 ___ -1.3 Ballyhaise

adam240610 __________4.6 _ 14.8 _ -6.9 _ 101 _ 122 ___ +0.1 Ballyhaise

200motels _____ (-3) ___4.5 _ 15.3 _ -7.3 _ 091 _ 102 ___ +0.7 Knock

Dasa29 ______________ 4.5 _ 11.5 _ -8.0 _ 105 _ 115 ___ -2.0 Mullingar

Mr stonewall __________ 4.4 _ 14.4 _ -7.2 _ 083 _ 091 ___ -0.8 Ballyhaise

Dacogawa ____________ 4.4 _ 14.1 _ -8.7 _ 105 _ 100 ___ -2.2 Ballyhaise


___ Con Sensus _______ 4.4 _ 14.4 _ -7.5 _ 090 _ 106 ___ -1.0


Artane2002 ___________ 4.3 _ 15.8 _ -7.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

appledrop ____________ 4.3 _ 14.0 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 100 ___ +1.8 Knock

M.T. Cranium __________4.2 _ 15.7 _ -9.2 _ 070 _ 110 ___ -1.0 Markree

Pauldry ______________ 4.1 _ 15.0 _ -8.2 _ 079 _ 105 ___ -2.0 Ballyhaise

Joe Public ____________ 4.0 _ 13.9 _ -8.1 _ 085 _ 121 ___ -2.1 Casement

Bsal _________________3.9 _ 14.0 _-10.0_ 110 _ 107 ___ -1.0 Mount Dillon

Funsterdelux ___ (-4) ___3.7 _ 15.0 _ -8.5 _ 090 _ 096 ___ -1.7 Mullingar

DOCARCH ____________ 3.6 _ 14.2 _ -7.2 _ 096 _ 110 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

SleetAndSnow __(-2)____3.4 _ 14.6 _-11.2_ 087 _ 103 ___ -1.2 Ballyhaise

Sunflower3 ____ (-3) ___ 3.2 _ 13.5 _ -6.8 _ 080 _ 095 ___ -2.4 Ballyhaise

Tazio _________ (-2) ___3.0 _ 12.0 _ -7.5 _ 100 _ 125 ___ -5.5 Cork Airport

Gonzo _______________ 2.9 _ 15.9 _-12.8_ 072 _ 112 ___ -2.4 Ballyhaise

Danno _______________ 1.7 _ 11.9 _-14.2_ 085 _ 175 ___ -4.0 Ballyhaise

BLIZZARD7 ___________ 1.3 _ 14.3 _-13.7_ 080 _ 170 ___ -4.7 Ballyhaise

________________________________________________________

29 forecasts to this point, all are below the February average IMT ... shades of Dec 2010.

Con Sensus is the median value, 15th ranked ... will change slightly if any further entries are
received.

For low max location, the count of stations suggested is

Ballyhaise _____ 13 ___ Con Sensus scores 3 if correct

Knock _________ 5 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

Markree ________4 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

Mullingar _______ 3 ___ Con Sensus scores 2 if correct

Mount Dillon ____ 2 ___ Con Sensus scores 1 if correct

Cork, Casement _ 1 each Con Sensus scores 1 if correct

all others _______ -- ___ Con Sensus scores 0 if correct

(Normal scores 3 for any of the above that got 2+ votes, 2 or 1 by climatology otherwise)

Your score will be based on the order (1st, 2nd, 3rd) of the low max at the location you selected.

Any qualifiers that occur at other stations will be disregarded in that part of the scoring, but counted for

the 7/10 portion related to the temperature value. Superbonus of 1 or 2 available on this one.

[Tae laidir]

Yesterday's Min Max 3.0 at Knock.
Should be broken today!

[M.T. Cranium]

Yes, the intention will be to maintain a log of 1-2-3 cold max values from today on, people are welcome to take this on but I will be checking the numbers and upgrading any reports that appear if they don't show the updated 1-2-3 (if they are up to the contest standard then I will just thank the post and move on). If a station produces a second or third value that ranks 1-2-3, ignore it as the objective is to determine the first, second and third ranking locations, not the first, second and third ranking values (e.g., Knock could hold all three after three days colder than anywhere else, but we still need to know what location got to the second coldest extreme and third coldest for scoring).

Meanwhile, here's a summary of first week stats ... as always courtesy of a little outfit known as Met E.

IMT was 5.8 which was about 0.7 above normal (Casement did not appear in the ag summary for some reason, but is available in monthly data, their anomaly estimated).

MAX has been at least 11.4 (I looked back at a few likely locations once I realized the cold spells might prevent the early weak candidates from being overtaken, if 11.4 holds then we'll be needing minimum progression for scoring).

MIN has not been tracked with the colder spell looming, until today I don't think there have been any sub-zero mins.

PRC has been approx 140% (it was apparently missing rainfall data that kept Casement out of the ag summary as their monthly reads n/a). I checked daily values and compared with Dublin, all the values are there so I'm not sure what issue kept Casement from getting a total or a spot in the ag summary. The total was a little lower (mostly on the wettest day, the 2nd) so I estimated Casement at 200% compared to 235 for Dublin.

SUN has been around 44% of normal (est Casement 30% based on all daily values and comparison to Dublin again). Only Cork managed to reach normal, everywhere else was even cloudier than the average (Johnstown Castle which we don't use was 63%).

The low max will be tracked starting today.

[M.T. Cranium]

Monday 8th (low max)

1. Knock 1.7

2. Cork 2.3

3. Casement 2.5

(low min now -1.6 Gurteen)

[appledrop]

Tuesday 9th Low Max:

1.Knock 1.5

Then we have Dublin, Cork, Dunsany and Mullingar all tied on 1.9 in 2nd place!

New Min -2.2 Knock on 9th although I'd say last night will be colder when stats come in.

[appledrop]

New min of -4.2 at Mt Dillion on 10th.

No change to Low Max but its a cold one out there today so it could change again by tomorrow!

[appledrop]

Low Max Scores:

1. Knock 1.4, 11th

2. Casement 1.8 11th

3.Dublin, Cork, Dunsany, Mullingar 1.9- 9th & Athenry Ballyhaise 1.9 on 11th!

M.T don't know how your going to score 3rd if it stays like this!

Thanks for a brilliant bonus question M.T I've enjoyed tracking it all week.

[M.T. Cranium]

Thanks, I agree with your list, scoring for all those tied third (if they hold up) would be one out of three points to anyone who chose any of them as their location, Con scores two and Normal scores three for Knock.

The four closest to 1.4 score seven out of seven available and then groups of three to seven take the rest of the points, with groups determined by similar errors.

So unless there's another cold spell the current points would look like this (s.b. is superbonus) :

Temp pts _ Forecaster (fcst) __ loc'n s.b. __ TOTAL

7 pts __ Appledrop (+1.8) ____ 3 + 2 _____ 12
_______MrSkinner (+0.9) ____ 0 _________ 7
_______sryanbruen (+0.8) ___ 3 + 2 _____ 12
_______200motels (+0.7) ____ 3 + 2 _____ 12

6 pts __ waterways (+0.6) ____ 0 _________ 6
_______ John mac (+2.2) _____0 _________ 6
_______ Eon1208 (+0.5) _____ 1 _________ 7
_______ Tae laidir (+0.4) _____ 1 _________ 7

5 pts __ Adam062410 (+0.1) __ 1 _________ 6
_______ Western Storm (0.0) __3 _________ 8
_______ Kindred Spirit (0.0) ___0 _________ 5
__________ NormaL (3.0) _____3 _________ 8

4 pts __ JPmarn (-0.8) ________3 _________7
_______ Mr stonewall (-0.8) ___ 1 _________5
__________ Con sensus (-1.0) _ 2 _________6
_______ M.T. Cranium (-1.0) ___0 _________4
_______ Bsal (-1.0) __________ 0 ________ 4

3 pts ___DOCARCH (-1.2) _____ 1 ________ 4
_______ SleetAndSnow (-1.2) __ 1 ________ 4
_______ Artane2002 (-1.2) ____ 1 ________ 4
_______ Cirrus business (-1.3) _ 1 ________ 4

2 pts __ Funsterdelux (-1.7) ____1 ________ 3
_______dasa29 (-2.0) ________ 1 ________ 3
_______ Pauldry (-2.0) _______ 1 ________ 3
_______ Joe Public (-2.1) _____ 2 ________ 4
_______ dacogawa (-2.4) _____ 1 ________ 3
_______ Sunflower3 (-2.4) ____ 1 ________ 3
_______ Gonzo (-2.4) ________ 1 ________ 3

1 pt ___ Danno (-4.0) ________ 1 ________ 2
_______ BLIZZARD7 (-4.7) ____ 1 ________ 2
_______ Tazio (-5.5) _________ 1 ________ 2

__________________________________________

One other contest note of interest, the IMT is currently on 4.1 and if today's mean were to come in at 2.0, that would make it 3.9, possibly the low point for the month?

[appledrop]

The station that surprised me for low max was Athenry. I was tracking it yesterday and at one stage it was looking like it would over take Knock.

All the others in top three like Ballyhaise, Mullingar etc were stations most of us guessed that are usually colder than normal but not that one.

[Tae laidir]

Snow in the West.

[appledrop]

New Max 12.4 on 13th Valentia.

Today and tomorrow looking very mild so I'd say we will have a new Max of 13 or 14 degrees.

[DOCARCH]

Max of 13.9c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

By looks of forecasts, should see higher somewhere in the next week.

[M.T. Cranium]

After two weeks ...

IMT back up to 4.4 with the second week average 3.0 which was 2.4 below normal for the week.

MAX 13.9 and MIN -4.2

PRC is now at 116% with the second week registering 93% of normal, Cork had a significant surplus and a few other places were rather dry.

SUN remains well below normal at about 50%. The second week average was 54.5% (327/600) and Cork only 7% while Belmullet had more than their normal amount.

Low max contest scoring is shown in previous post (unless we get another cold spell that alters any of the locations or the current low max of 1.4).

[M.T. Cranium]

After three weeks ...

IMT has soared to 5.6 C with this past week 8.1 which was 2.6 above normal. This could edge up towards 5.9 or 6.0 for a finish (which will bring in our good friend minimum progression).

MAX still 13.9 and MIN -4.2

PRC now at 157% of normal with this past week 240% of normal, heaviest in the south. With the expected deluge coming, this could finish up around 200%.

SUN has improved to 77% with the past week rather bright despite all the rain, at 132% (792/600). This may finish as high as 85% with today getting some sun and more expected later in the week.

[appledrop]

New Max 14.6 Phoneix Park on 23rd.