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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • #92
    tanko
    Registered Users Posts: 9,199 ✭✭✭tanko


    Are there any signs of drier weather for next week?


  • #93
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Not really, LP is trapped by HP and will just keep turning on the spot according to GSF, the ECM outlook is a bit more hopefully but I'd expect mixed weather for two weeks at least.


  • #94
    jArgHA
    Registered Users Posts: 1,278 ✭✭✭jArgHA


    Lads I'm not great at reading charts, but is it just me (well I know MT did hint at it also), or are the models starting to agree on a significant improvement mid/late next week?

    UKMO @ 144h
    VkrwBPk.png

    GEFS Ensmble @ 144h
    yM4feJV.png

    ECMWF @ 144h
    lyUC4DX.png

    GFS Ensemble 2m Temp & precipitation:
    v2jMOIl.png


  • #95
    jntsnk
    Registered Users Posts: 476 ✭✭jntsnk


    Other weather apps I have show similar improvement next week.


  • #96
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    There was hints of ridging and tentative signs of improving temperatures but not so on latest charts, nothing settled showing up out to the the 19th.

    NE2z8zx.gif

    xqdMaPa.png

    MtpNXhv.png


    QpjBBtH.gif


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  • #97
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,497 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Some teleconnections currently suggest a more west to southwesterly flow of air during the second half of June which will mean warmer temperatures generally away from maybe the northwest but mainly cloudy and continuing changeable. Greenland blocking waning away if these teleconnections have the dominant influence but I won’t hold my breath. We shall see.

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  • #98
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,497 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Some teleconnections currently suggest a more west to southwesterly flow of air during the second half of June which will mean warmer temperatures generally away from maybe the northwest but mainly cloudy and continuing changeable. Greenland blocking waning away if these teleconnections have the dominant influence but I won’t hold my breath. We shall see.

    Some support for this in the GEFS this evening definitely but need to see it continue trending and not backdating before we can take this as gospel.

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  • #99
    jArgHA
    Registered Users Posts: 1,278 ✭✭✭jArgHA


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Some support for this in the GEFS this evening definitely but need to see it continue trending and not backdating before we can take this as gospel.

    Roughly when is this showing from at present sryan? (heading to the Aran Islands for a week on Saturday and fearing a washout at this point)


  • #100
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,497 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    jArgHA wrote: »
    Roughly when is this showing from at present sryan? (heading to the Aran Islands for a week on Saturday and fearing a washout at this point)

    Around this time next week is when there's the signal for a gradual weakening of the Greenland blocking to allow the trough to migrate further northwards and influence from the Azores High into southern and central Europe.

    This is not a scenario favoured for us going into a warm, dry and sunny spell but it's a warmer (though still changeable) situation than what we've had for most of May and June. I'd expect temperatures on most days to range between 15-19c which is near the normal where we should be at this time of year compared to the 10-16c we've been having generally.

    Some scenarios of heights rising over Scandinavia which would give an increased chance of much warmer air infiltrating from a southeasterly quarter - low to near mid 20s max temperatures if verified. However, this is not the favoured scenario as is the west to southwesterly pattern. Basically, a return to something more normal for Ireland than this extreme blocked (in terms of high latitudes), cool and wet pattern we've been having.

    Scandinavian Highs are particularly hard to anticipate and or forecast.

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  • #101
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,871 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    If the Sun says it sure it must be true

    https://www.thesun.ie/news/4199301/irish-weather-forecast-chart-temperatures-ireland-june/


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  • #102
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Anyone else finding it rather irritatingly ironic that the charts we're seeing now are charts we would have killed for during November - February? :D:D:D


  • #103
    The Specialist
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,539 ✭✭✭The Specialist


    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    Anyone else finding it rather irritatingly ironic that the charts we're seeing now are charts we would have killed for during November - February? :D:D:D

    This whole year is a disappointment so far, we didn’t even get a real spring and now spring part 2 has decided to piss on our summer. Is it really too much to ask for a couple of weeks of weather that actually feel like summer? :D


  • #104
    compsys
    Registered Users Posts: 1,035 ✭✭✭compsys


    The Specialist wrote: »
    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    Anyone else finding it rather irritatingly ironic that the charts we're seeing now are charts we would have killed for during November - February? :D:D:D

    This whole year is a disappointment so far, we didn’t even get a real spring and now spring part 2 has decided to piss on our summer. Is it really too much to ask for a couple of weeks of weather that actually feel like summer? :D

    In the same vein is it too much to ask for a few weeks that actually feel like winter?

    We’ve had insanely above average temps all winter and now below average summer temps. The absolute worst you could ask for IMO.


  • #105
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭esposito


    compsys wrote: »
    In the same vein is it too much to ask for a few weeks that actually feel like winter?

    We’ve had insanely above average temps all winter and now below average summer temps. The absolute worst you could ask for IMO.

    Indeed. We have not had much luck thus far this year. Very frustrating but unfortunately this is Ireland and the Atlantic usually ruins our chances of hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter. Still, our luck has got to turn at some stage this year. A few weeks of warm sunshine (mid 20s) in July or August would be ideal.


  • #106
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    ECM finally showing some decent high pressure over us from the first frame of FI in five days time, on to the end of the run. Let's hope it doesn't vanish over the next few days!


  • #107
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,484 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    The new operational core (FV3) of the GFS model has now been switched to the default operational model:

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/06/us-weather-forecasts-get-a-software-update/

    Curious if any of our expert watchers have noticed any changes because of this, or have you been keeping an eye on the FV3 runs anyway?


  • #108
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    MJohnston wrote: »
    The new operational core (FV3) of the GFS model has now been switched to the default operational model:

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/06/us-weather-forecasts-get-a-software-update/

    Curious if any of our expert watchers have noticed any changes because of this, or have you been keeping an eye on the FV3 runs anyway?

    The FV3 was spot on with the SSW around Christmas week and flagged it a fair few days before the (formerly) operational jumped on board - they both forecasted a warming of sorts in the strat, but in the early days the FV3 was the one showing the intense (red-dark red chart) warming while the operational showed a yellow-orange temperature gradient instead. FV3 also predicted the split earlier than the operational caught on, IIRC. They both verified eventually, but the FV3 got there first with a more or less accurate forecast, if my memory serves.


  • #109
    Ultimate Seduction
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,464 ✭✭✭Ultimate Seduction


    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    ECM finally showing some decent high pressure over us from the first frame of FI in five days time, on to the end of the run. Let's hope it doesn't vanish over the next few days!

    How did this look over the last couple of runs ?


  • #110
    Solli
    Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭Solli


    Can u put up a graphic for those of us who are wildly impressed with all this tech talk. Just to spread the hope like.


  • #111
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Ultimate Seduction wrote: »
    How did this look over the last couple of runs ?
    Solli wrote: »
    Can u put up a graphic for those of us who are wildly impressed with all this tech talk. Just to spread the hope like.

    It's not as hopeful today I'm afraid so I'll wait a while before posting graphics :D It's still relatively hopeful, but not as much as yesterday. Give it another few runs.


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  • #112
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    latest ensembles is beginning to show a drying trend, particularly towards the final days of June.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2019-06-13&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

    GFS shows a short lived slight ridge around the 19th to 21st of June, it may produce 2 or 3 days tops of dry conditions and nothing too warm. Goes unsettled again for Ireland from the 22nd of June.

    The Control run looks more promising with maybe 4 or 5 days of warm and settled conditions.

    GFSC00EU12_300_1.png

    It just all looks uncertain at this stage, I think we need a few more runs and more support before getting in any way excited. Overall i think the second half of June won't be as cold or wet as this first half.


  • #113
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    To follow up from the last post, around the 25th and 26th of June looks decent, I was getting excited before the run had finished, more like wishful thinking.

    GFSOPEU06_312_1.png

    But end of run a few days later shows a very familiar sight:

    GFSOPEU06_384_1.png


  • #114
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,497 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    NOTE: This post is for comical sakes. It is to be taken as a good laugh than anything serious.

    The GFS 06z run this morning is about as crazy a model run I've ever seen with a hot southerly to southeasterly flow circulating around a slack area of low pressure to south of Ireland. This results in filtering the +25c isotherm into England which has never been seen in recorded history at 850hPa.

    And this operational run has said to have been an upgrade on the previous GFS operational? :pac:

    Lfj5Ml8.png

    09o6tGj.png

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  • #115
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Percentage wise likely hood of happening? It's not all that far off.


  • #116
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,497 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    bazlers wrote: »
    Percentage wise likely hood of happening? It's not all that far off.

    0.0000000001%

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  • #117
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,676 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    bazlers wrote: »
    Percentage wise likely hood of happening? It's not all that far off.

    very low, it'll most likely be gone in the next run. Aka 99.99% chance of it being gone and not happening :p


  • #118
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    NOTE: This post is for comical sakes. It is to be taken as a good laugh than anything serious.

    The GFS 06z run this morning is about as crazy a model run I've ever seen with a hot southerly to southeasterly flow circulating around a slack area of low pressure to south of Ireland. This results in filtering the +25c isotherm into England which has never been seen in recorded history at 850hPa.





    very unlikely to happen, would probably result in temperatures over 40C in London.


  • #119
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,497 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    very unlikely to happen, would probably result in temperatures over 40C in London.

    I'd say more along the lines of mid 30s given it would be only the end of June. 40c more as a possibility in late July or early August.

    Anyway, like I said, posted it for comical sakes. One would seriously doubt the fact this has been a GFS upgrade on its old operational if it comes out with cold bias and now extreme heat.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #120
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    0.0000000001%

    So you are telling me there is a chance,ðŸ˜


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  • #121
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I'd say more along the lines of mid 30s given it would be only the end of June. 40c more as a possibility in late July or early August.

    Anyway, like I said, posted it for comical sakes. One would seriously doubt the fact this has been a GFS upgrade on its old operational if it comes out with cold bias and now extreme heat.

    I remember during January and February, it was always over delivering on snow potential for us with the operational run much more conservative and accurate. If this holds could be troublesum for us this winter!


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