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Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Party has only been been set up for six weeks, it's not the landslide that some expected, but its a comprehensive result nonetheless.


    It is quite clear that UKIP was a one man party and it is equally clear that the same is true of the Brexit Party. I think if you look at their results they have taken the UKIP vote and much of the Conservative vote as well. That is no more or less than the previous election. Of they had 50% or more of the overall vote I would say it was a clear mandate, but this is not it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,489 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Party has only been been set up for six weeks, it's not the landslide that some expected, but its a comprehensive result nonetheless.

    I wonder have they shot their load with this election. Say, they leave, as still is the plan, what do they pivot to then? they were unashamedly focused on nothing else but Brexit, so, say that happens, what then?

    Also, it could be argued that the vote for Brexit has lessened since the referendum given, I think that it is a relatively safe bet that anyone still desiring it voted for the Brexit Party or The conservatives meaning it is currently at abot 40% of the vote.


  • Registered Users Posts: 36,021 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Tommy Robinson 38, 908 votes and a round of mocking laughter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,282 ✭✭✭dublinman1990


    Farage's call for a GE if the UK doesn't leave the EU on the 31st of October will probably fall on deaf ears on the rest of the country if he has to gather all of the members that he can muster to become a ruling government party in the HoC. His calls to be part of the negotiating teams for the UK leaving the EU will probably fall deaf on the EU side too as most of the EU Parliament in Strasbourg is on the opposite end of the political spectrum, as the results are counted across the EU this weekend, that will overwhelmingly give a stance of the UK to remain in the EU.

    Brexit Party has just won 3 Euro seats in the North West of England.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,372 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    Tommy Robinson 38, 908 votes and a round of mocking laughter.

    I actually thought he was inside ukip.

    Shows what I know


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  • Registered Users Posts: 33,372 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Every single conservative mp on sky news when asked is trotting out the line about it's clear the mandate for brexit and no deal is still there.

    Absolute Wafflers.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭BobbyBobberson


    I genuinely just lol'd at Anne Widdecombe on BBC. Cannot believe she is going to be an MEP.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,995 ✭✭✭Shelga


    Suella Braverman says the results clearly mean that ‘a large majority’ of the British people want Brexit. Absolute lies!

    Thankfully the presenter on Sky News is calling her out. And she’s trying to claim that those who want to remain are more confused than those who want to leave?? Laughable.

    Oh one of the panel is laying into her and she has no response. Thank god Sky is so much better than the BBC at this stuff.

    I also really should just go to bed and leave the endless Brexit saga til the morning :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Suella Braverman also stating this means the country voted overwhelmingly to leave. When called out on it she is trying to justify her stance.

    Result for the North-West is 3 Brexit MEPs, 2 Labour, 2 Libdems and one Green MEP. As compared to 2014, no change for Brexit/UKIP, one seat lost for Labour, two gained for Libdems and one for the Greens. The Conservative lost 2 seats.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Jazmine Big Dragonfly


    Odds on the cheeky chappie Farage to become the PM during 2019 have shortened slightly.
    16/1 tonight from 25/1 yesterday, still a wildcard. Got at 66/1 last month, might be near time to lay this before any drift.

    If he actually got in, his ideal deputy might be that Clarkson fella from former Topgear, 2 likely lads swilling beer and just saying what they think.
    It would be funny, a slightly tragic comedy all the same but TV ratings for bbc-parliment would be on the up.

    Meanwhile as TBP surges, the SNP do so also, countdown to the new Alba? (Soctish indie).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,224 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    Labour Party have only themselves to blame. Nobody knows where they stand on Brexit , including themselves.

    Anyway it’s only till October


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,352 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    listermint wrote: »
    It's merely farage taking his voters with him.this isn't a new party its just farage minority supporters coming with him. Same old same old
    In fairness, it's more than that. They've taken the entire UKIP vote and increased it.
    listermint wrote: »
    But they still have not majority mandate. Remain wins out simply.
    You are presuming that everyone who didn't vote UKIP/Brexit would vote remain in a referendum.

    If you look at all the polls, the margin of difference between remain and leave is tiny, and well within the margin of error when undecided is taken into account - https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-the-united-kingdom-remain-a-member-of-the-european-union-or-leave-the-european-union-asked-after-the-referendum/


  • Registered Users Posts: 66,296 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Shelga wrote: »
    There are 30-40% max of voters who want a no deal exit. That is of the ones who can be bothered to vote.

    There is no mandate for a no deal exit.

    *Edit: That doesn't mean it won't happen, of course!

    There is no mandate for anything but continued division and uncertainty.

    Their society needs to leave before it can move forward imo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,853 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    The Brexiters think they are right and have proved it now by their vote.

    Remainers were useless.

    So here we are. I say we, because if No Deal Brexit happens we will suffer. So much for neighbourly relations. They don't give a fig.

    And the focus is on UK once again. They expect the EU will capitulate and do anything to keep them on board. I wonder if EU will do this, am getting jittery now.

    I really hate the idea of the GFA being ditched. Really do.

    I hope it will never happen and the EU will continue to back our membership. I am sure that will happen, but I have my moments.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,282 ✭✭✭dublinman1990


    Well Huw Edwards did try to put down Ann Widdecombe on BBC One/News Channel about restarting the negotiations for the UK from her word on wanting a 'clean' Brexit. She did acknowledge though that people do vote for the other parties on other issues that relate to them. I can probably assume from that line is that the rest of the electorate who are sticking with those parties could be the ones that have a policy of remaining in the EU & will simply not bother to vote for the BP at all because as they are seen as the majority there. They are more likely to remain in the EU if that 2nd referendum was held again very soon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,372 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    In fairness, it's more than that. They've taken the entire UKIP vote and increased it.

    You are presuming that everyone who didn't vote UKIP/Brexit would vote remain in a referendum.

    If you look at all the polls, the margin of difference between remain and leave is tiny, and well within the margin of error when undecided is taken into account - https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-the-united-kingdom-remain-a-member-of-the-european-union-or-leave-the-european-union-asked-after-the-referendum/

    So no mandate then


    Like I said.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭BobbyBobberson


    I really hope the next PM is a hard brexiteer and that the brexiteers feel they have got their person in the office.

    Because once it dawns on whoever is PM just what an utter **** show it all is, how the UK could never leave with No Deal and brexiteers hear this from one of their then finally things might change.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭BobbyBobberson


    Caroline Lucas speaking well on Sky News.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,716 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    In all fairness to Jeremy Clarkson, in reality he is a staunch remainer and quite the europhile.

    Looking at the UK media and how they characterise the results, its completely misleading to term it "Brexit Party wins the North West" (to quote Sky) and so on, because there is no effective majority prize at the end of this.

    What BP have done is achieved the greatest share of the vote in many regions, but they will still have lower numbers than the combined Remain supporting parties in many regions too, but really that doesn't mean anything either. All 75 odd UK MEPs dilute into the 751 along with everyone else and when it comes to wielding influence, it will still be the Lib Dems, Greens and Labour that will join with the big blocks to steer the direction of the next term.

    All the Brexit Party have done is make the potential for an early UK general election less likely than before and that leaves a Commons in which there is no support for a hard Brexit, even if Boris or McVeigh or Gove took over....


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,352 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Farage's call for a GE if the UK doesn't leave the EU on the 31st of October will probably fall on deaf ears.
    He's mad to be calling for a general election. He tried contesting general elections with UKIP and that failed amidst acrimony and in-fighting. When you look at the motley crue of assorted Brexit party candidates, it's clear that if these guys are put into a room, they haven't a hope of agreeing on a half dozen bullet points, let alone a full manifesto. The whole thing will end up imploding before a vote is even cast.

    Farage is the lightening rod (admittedly, a very good one) for a single issue. This works great in a European election, but will fail for anything else.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    There’s some wishful thinking here. So much so I resurrected Franz part II.

    I personally think Brexit is a folly but this is a good result for the Brexit party. Some things to note.

    1) they have in fact increased the UKIP vote and UKIP are still getting about 1-5%.
    2) the conservatives are a Brexit party.
    3) labour is also, as of today, a Brexit party. In fact what’s left of its vote may well be happy with Corbyn’s strategy of supposed fence sitting, which is still pro Brexit with some kind of deal. Labour remainers have defected.

    It’s mistaken therefore to say that remain is winning. It isn’t.

    Worse than that though - were these results replicated in the FPTP system in a Westminster election the Brexit party would take ~80% of the welsh and English seats. More if UKIP disappeared.

    And in a GE where Brexit was not delivered I believe it would in fact be a one issue election. Therefore Brexit will happen, in this parliament or the next.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,352 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    listermint wrote: »
    So no mandate then


    Like I said.
    Except for the one decided on June 2016 - the only legitimate one that has been made so far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    In fairness, it's more than that. They've taken the entire UKIP vote and increased it.

    You are presuming that everyone who didn't vote UKIP/Brexit would vote remain in a referendum.

    If you look at all the polls, the margin of difference between remain and leave is tiny, and well within the margin of error when undecided is taken into account - https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-the-united-kingdom-remain-a-member-of-the-european-union-or-leave-the-european-union-asked-after-the-referendum/


    They have taken the UKIP vote and some of the Conservative vote. I am sure they have also taken some of the Labour vote as well, although this is probably very small in EU elections. I think both Labour and Conservatives would obviously do better in a general election when people will care more about the NHS than the EU. When that happens a lot of people will still vote Brexit Party, but they will lose a lot as well due to Farage and his pronouncements about how the health system in the UK will need to move to a private insurer model.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,372 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    There’s some wishful thinking here. So much so I resurrected Franz part II.

    I personally think Brexit is a folly but this is a good result for the Brexit party. Some things to note.

    1) they have in fact increased the UKIP vote and UKIP are still getting about 1-5%.
    2) the conservatives are a Brexit party.
    3) labour is also, as of today, a Brexit party. In fact what’s left of its vote may well be happy with Corbyn’s strategy of supposed fence sitting, which is still pro Brexit with some kind of deal. Labour remainers have defected.

    It’s mistaken therefore to say that remain is winning. It isn’t.

    Worse than that though - were these results replicated in the FPTP system in a Westminster election the Brexit party would take ~80% of the welsh and English seats. More if UKIP disappeared.

    And in a GE where Brexit was not delivered I believe it would in fact be a one issue election. Therefore Brexit will happen, in this parliament or the next.

    Let's cut you with some facts first.



    European Elections:
    UK: 80% counted so far:

    Remain parties: 40.3%
    Hard Brexit parties: 34.9%
    Conservatives/Labour: 23.2%


  • Registered Users Posts: 36,021 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    @Franz

    I’m very confident that Labour will be a Remain party within the coming month.

    But you most certainly have a point.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Jazmine Big Dragonfly


    I really hate the idea of the GFA being ditched. Really do.

    The future of the GFA/UI may be factored not only by hard-brexit, but more so an Indie hard-Scotland (looking towards the EU), which will in turn actually destory their union quickest.

    Then the three regions (ie/ni/sco) will viewing the EU through unified celtic greenish-navy coloured shades (but it won't happen overnight).

    Also the full weight of any Leave 2.0 vote might now lay soley in the growing LibDems, if people can fully drop the con/lab messers and forgive the LD for selling out solemn promises to reduce uni fees a decade or so ago.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,224 ✭✭✭joeysoap


    Farrage and Widdecombe want to be part of negotiations.

    What negotiations?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭BobbyBobberson


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    @Franz

    I’m very confident that Labour will be a Remain party within the coming month.

    But you most certainly have a point.

    Thornberry certainly pointed to that tonight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,352 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    SNP to take a seat from Labour in Scotland. Lib Dems, Brexit Party and Conservatives to take one each. Labour come away with nothing.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    There’s some wishful thinking here. So much so I resurrected Franz part II.

    I personally think Brexit is a folly but this is a good result for the Brexit party. Some things to note.

    1) they have in fact increased the UKIP vote and UKIP are still getting about 1-5%.
    2) the conservatives are a Brexit party.
    3) labour is also, as of today, a Brexit party. In fact what’s left of its vote may well be happy with Corbyn’s strategy of supposed fence sitting, which is still pro Brexit with some kind of deal. Labour remainers have defected.

    It’s mistaken therefore to say that remain is winning. It isn’t.

    Worse than that though - were these results replicated in the FPTP system in a Westminster election the Brexit party would take ~80% of the welsh and English seats. More if UKIP disappeared.

    And in a GE where Brexit was not delivered I believe it would in fact be a one issue election. Therefore Brexit will happen, in this parliament or the next.


    Yeah, but it is easier for Labour voters who want to Brexit to vote for another party in the EU elections than it is in a general election as they think it matters more to them in a general election on their daily lives and to keep the Tories away from power. So the dithering of Labour cost them voters to both the Brexit Party and Libdems and Greens as well. What we do know is that Labour members are overwhelmingly in favour of remain. It is only the leader and his some of his close advisers that want to leave the EU. This doesn't mean that you can automatically count the party as either remain or leave. You can add the Conservatives and UKIP to the Brexit Party though.


This discussion has been closed.
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