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US Presidential Election 2020

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    #2222
    spacecoyote
    Registered Users Posts: 8,435 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    From what I can gather Bloomberg is spending enormously in all if the states from Super Tuesday forward and hes jumped well up the polling in those states.

    He never could qualify for early the debates as he said hed be self-financing and not require any donors, which was a pre-requisite.

    I'm not sure what the logic is for debate qualification as things move forward. They'll have to change the rules or he technically wouldn't ever appear on the stage with the other dem candidates


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    #2223
    Manic Moran
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,220 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    sid waddell wrote: »
    It may look like Liverpool are leading the Premier League, but I'm going to explain to you now why that's not so, and why Manchester United are actually leading it.

    Nah, I won't.

    It looks like an increase because it is an increase.

    Because Man U had a week without a fixture and Liverpool have so far played more games.

    Bottom line: Voter turnout of those eligible to vote in the Democratic Primary NH in 2016: 57%. Voter turnout of those eligible to vote in the 2020 Democratic Primary: 42%. A 15% decrease.

    Note how the New York Times has a headline "New Hampshire Primary Sets a Record for Turnout, but It May Be Deceiving".
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/us/politics/new-hampshire-primary-turnout.html

    I shall give you some more numbers to demonstrate the relative problem.

    Total voter turnout in 2016 was 539,000 out of 946,502. Total voter turnout in 2020 was 449,000/980,720, an overall decrease. However, to be more relevant to the discussion, from that one must subtract Republicans. They have no ability to influence on the D primary, they aren't allowed vote in it.

    Fortunately, the figures are available. "New Hampshire primary turnout was good for Democrats — sort of." (Strange how they are putting qualifiers on these headlines, no?)
    https://www.vox.com/2020/2/12/21134438/new-hampshire-democratic-primary-turnout
    "43 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in the state were independents, only slightly up from 40 percent in 2016"

    In 2016, thus, 54% of registered Democrats voted in the primary. In 2020, the figure is 61%. Congrats, more Democrats by percentage are turning out. But it's not just Democrats who can vote either in the Democrat Primary or the Presidential election. The Independents are the determining factor in NH, especially since they almost number the Ds and Rs put together, and they can vote in the D primary: Their choice to vote or not vote must be reflected to show the true picture.

    In 2016, some 212,000 Independents voted out of 360,600 registered. 58% turnout. The split was about 101,000 in the D primary, 111,000 in the R. Ergo, 28% of independents chose to vote in the D primary in 2016.

    In 2020, some 125,000 independents voted in the D primary out of 415,900. 30%. The problem is that 30% is now also basically the voter turnout for independents as there wasn't much else for an independent to have a reason to vote for this time around.

    That's 100,000 people who voted in 2016 and were eligible to vote in the Democratic Primaries who couldn't be arsed to vote in 2020. The single largest voting demographic in New Hampshire decided to stay at home this time instead of vote for their preferred Democratic nominee.

    There aren't many ways of spinning that well.


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    #2224
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,537 ✭✭✭✭briany


    If Mike Bloomberg didn't have the gimmick of being insanely wealthy, he'd at least be a curiosity for being even more bland than Joe Biden.

    Bloomberg and Biden have no message. Hillary had no message. Sanders has a message but it's a divisive one. If Biden or Bloomberg get the nomination, there'll be another mass disillusionment among potential democratic voters. If Hillary gets parachuted in, there'll be a civil war within the party. If Sanders gets it, he'll have to drag the Democratic establishment along with him kicking and screaming. They'll attempt to sabotage him.

    Trump must be rubbing his hands together. Trump v Sanders amounts to an open left/right confrontation in America. The levels of vitriol would be off the scale. It'd be scary. I can already hear Trump referring to Sanders as B.S.

    (Trump at rally)

    "You people hear that stupid B.S. on CNN last night?"


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    #2225
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    Manic Moran wrote: »
    Because Man U had a week without a fixture and Liverpool have so far played more games.

    Liverpool are 38 points ahead of Manchester United with same number of games played, and 22 points clear of their nearest challenger.

    38 is not far off the number of thousands of voters more who voted in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire in 2020 compared to 2016.

    More = an increase.

    It's entirely unsurprising that a Trump supporter would try to convince people that 253,000 is a higher number than 298,000. That's the way Trumpism works, lies about everything, even the size of a body of people, which is of course the first, most famous and most obvious lie of all, right at the start of his presidency back in January 2017.

    And still Trump supporters peddle this stuff.


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    #2226
    Manic Moran
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,220 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    sid waddell wrote: »
    Liverpool are 38 points ahead of Manchester United with same number of games played, and 22 points clear of their nearest challenger.

    38 is not far off the number of thousands of voters more who voted in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire in 2020 compared to 2016.

    More = an increase.

    And if you double that, it's still less than the number of thousands of voters who decided to stay at home this time around. Percentages are what count, not raw numbers, since those can go up on both sides. Indeed, the raw number of registered voters in the State also increased by 35,000. It's easy to get more numbers when more people are around. The trick is in convincing enough of the total population by percentage to come to your shindig.

    I refer you again to the significant decrease in eligible voter turnout percentage. 100,000 people who voted last tune around and could have voted in the D primary this year, did not. They are not engaged.


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    #2227
    Red for Danger
    Registered Users Posts: 128 ✭✭Red for Danger


    Sanders has taken the lead in Texas.


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    #2228
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,113 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    If the coloured vote sees Sanders as a candidate that would beat Trump, he'll be hard to stop getting the nomination.


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    #2229
    Remy Calm Strikeout
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Remy Calm Strikeout


    It's mad what advertising can do.

    We haven't seen a single Bloomberg debate, he hasn't been in the Iowa Causus nor New Hampshire primary and yet is second favourite for the nomination. He's not gonna be in the Nevada or South Carolina primaries, is he?


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    #2230
    Manic Moran
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,220 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Remy Calm Strikeout wrote: »
    It's mad what advertising can do.

    We haven't seen a single Bloomberg debate, he hasn't been in the Iowa Causus nor New Hampshire primary and yet is second favourite for the nomination. He's not gonna be in the Nevada or South Carolina primaries, is he?

    He is getting a lot of airtime on my computer feed, I’ll say that much. All about how good he is, not about what he will do. No policy, just name recognition.

    Interestingly, I’m also getting a surprising amount of Trump stuff as well, which I find surprisingly early.


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    #2231
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,260 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Manic Moran wrote: »
    He is getting a lot of airtime on my computer feed, I’ll say that much. All about how good he is, not about what he will do. No policy, just name recognition.
    Sounds like a Democratic version of Trump with better verbal skills and ability in my ears.


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    #2232
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Only thing I can think of is that he might be some type of stalking-horse? Have Bloomberg get Trump all riled up from someone richer and more successful than him, rather than focusing on the actual, potential opponents? Trump does seem incredibly brittle around the NY mayor, with his bitter little nicknames


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    #2233
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,537 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Nody wrote: »
    Sounds like a Democratic version of Trump with better verbal skills and ability in my ears.

    Bloomberg's willingness to mud-wrestle with Trump is not necessarily a boon. A lot of the people who are anti-Trump are dismayed with how he's undermined the position of POTUS with his bitter rhetoric. I'm sure there are also people who'd cheer someone who gives it back to Trump, but I doubt they're a workable majority.

    As for policy, Trump had/has policies such as what Bannon called 'economic nationalism', or revitalising the faded industries of the American rust belt, or clamping down on illegal immigration. Policies that may not be realistic in the way Trump puts them, but still hugely popular with a subset of American society and to whom no other politician seemed to be addressing as directly in 2016. Unless Bloomberg adopts opposing policies of similar bombast or, indeed, adopts his own versions of what Trump is promoting, then he'll have a tough time getting elected. All the younger people in the states who are looking for real change are going to be hesitant to vote for Bloomberg who undoubtedly represents an America where they're no longer even pretending - the billionaires don't bother just pulling the strings anymore, but rather just jump right into the job.


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    #2234
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,626 ✭✭✭eire4


    Nody wrote: »
    Sounds like a Democratic version of Trump with better verbal skills and ability in my ears.

    He is not actually a real Democrat. He has over the years donated and supported Republicans to the tune of tens of millions of dollars. He is simply focused economically on making sure he can continue to hoard his wealth. He just is not into the guns and rampant hate that is so much part of the modern Republican party hence he is running as a Democrat. But this is a guy who is economically the ultimate corporate Democrat in other words he is good to go with the Friedmanite disaster capitalism that has seen income inequality balloon so much in the past few decades.


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    #2235
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,005 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    pixelburp wrote: »
    Only thing I can think of is that he might be some type of stalking-horse? Have Bloomberg get Trump all riled up from someone richer and more successful than him, rather than focusing on the actual, potential opponents? Trump does seem incredibly brittle around the NY mayor, with his bitter little nicknames

    he uses nicknames with all the Dem front runners and tries to bait them.

    I understand why many in mainstream media are loving that Bloomberg is doing it is because they are all in on the anyone but Bernie train.

    Those abominations like Jennifer Rubin and all other tedious centerists don't seem to talk as much about it when Bernie fights back against Trump on twitter though,,,how odd...:confused:


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    #2236
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Yeah, the hard on to hammer Sanders is tedious, so if his momentum continues it'll be interesting to see if it softens in light of fading challenges from Biden et al. I must dig out some of the debates because as much as I can picture and imagine Sanders' rhetoric in speeches, I don't recall his debating style and how he counters arguments. Not that that would be useful against Trump, who's not what you'd call a traditional debater anyway. Given his outward hubris with the impeachment result, the TV debates will be fascinating box office.


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    #2237
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,005 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    pixelburp wrote: »
    Yeah, the hard on to hammer Sanders is tedious, so if his momentum continues it'll be interesting to see if it softens in light of fading challenges from Biden et al. I must dig out some of the debates because as much as I can picture and imagine Sanders' rhetoric in speeches, I don't recall his debating style and how he counters arguments. Not that that would be useful against Trump, who's not what you'd call a traditional debater anyway. Given his outward hubris with the impeachment result, the TV debates will be fascinating box office.

    I think Trump would rather face Bloomberg on stage. He has so much more charisma and is able to connect with ordinary voters easier than Mike.
    Bloomberg would win on policy ins and outs but sadly who cares about that?


    Also stuff like sexism, racism which the Dems have rightfully called out Trump on,,,can you really hurt Trump on these issues... if its Bloomberg on stage when you look at all the skeletons in Bloomberg's closet?

    Bernie is doing fine in these cluster **** Dem debates and was solid v Clinton on the one v one debates.


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    #2238
    dinorebel
    Registered Users Posts: 2,268 ✭✭✭dinorebel


    pixelburp wrote: »
    Yeah, the hard on to hammer Sanders is tedious, so if his momentum continues it'll be interesting to see if it softens in light of fading challenges from Biden et al. I must dig out some of the debates because as much as I can picture and imagine Sanders' rhetoric in speeches, I don't recall his debating style and how he counters arguments. Not that that would be useful against Trump, who's not what you'd call a traditional debater anyway. Given his outward hubris with the impeachment result, the TV debates will be fascinating box office.
    Not a hope Trump does any debates


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    #2239
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    dinorebel wrote: »
    Not a hope Trump does any debates

    Naw, Trump has kicked against the traditions of best every facet of American democracy, but there's no way he'll pass up a chance to be on TV. He's obsessed with ratings, attendance and presenting himself on screen, and his confidence / insecurity will demand he confronts his rival. I'd be genuinely shocked if Trump decides not to appear at the debates. Doesn't feel like it matches that compulsion for ratings.


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    #2240
    looksee
    Registered Users Posts: 28,047 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    It would not be a debate, it would be shout down and ramble. It would be a very strong presenter who could manage him on stage, it would probably end up with one of them walking off.


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    #2241
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,019 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    The problem with Bernie Sanders for a lot of the Democratic party is that Bernie Sanders is not a Democrat. Especially you would have to think the DNC would prefer he not represent the party because he is not a Democrat, he is an ideologue. This is not a criticism of him at all, just how I see it.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #2242
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,113 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    If Warren was leading, would she come under centerist pressure? Yes, she would.
    It's corporate interests minding their interests, mainly.


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    #2243
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,005 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    StringerBell wrote: »
    The problem with Bernie Sanders for a lot of the Democratic party is that Bernie Sanders is not a Democrat. Especially you would have to think the DNC would prefer he not represent the party because he is not a Democrat, he is an ideologue. This is not a criticism of him at all, just how I see it.

    They say that, but if it really mattered a chap who was a Republican mayor and has donated huge sums to the GOP not so long ago would be ran out of town....

    The hypocrisy of this ****show is for years we were told Bernie was a sexist, not a real Dem, not woke enough, but once Bloomberg comes calling those "principles" are ignored.

    Example? Check out this corporate Dem stooge.

    https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/status/1228391041985916928


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    #2244
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,537 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Trump's just going to take out a figurative sledgehammer and attempt to batter his Democrat rival to political death with it. Name-calling, obtuse remarks, appealing to the lowest common denominator, ignorance, guff, spiel, bile. No matter who it is, Trump will put them on blast. Trump wants a political mud wrestle.

    Trump might have a low approval rating but what is it voters are slow to approve of? His personal behaviour is clearly reprehensible for someone occupying the office of POTUS, but experts also seem to be saying that economic performance under his presidency has been strong, and he's going to take full credit for that, rightly or wrongly. Therefore the question is will voters say that while they may think he's a dickhe@d, he seems to be doing something right. It's nice to have a nice president, but nicer to have financial security.

    I think Bernie Sanders is a good man with his heart in the right place. He would stand a fighting chance against Trump if he were to get the full backing of the Democrats, but that will probably never happen. There are certain things about American policy that never seem to change - you cannot criticise Israel, you cannot criticise Saudi, you cannot ask could military expenditure be less exorbitant, and you cannot challenge big pharma. I mean, you can do the things I listed, but doing so keeps you on the periphery and attacked in the media and you'll never get anywhere politically. America has lots of money in the kitty and could easily pay for the things Sanders is talking about by restructuring the budget, but sadly for that country and its people, that will likely not happen.


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    #2245
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,019 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    They say that, but if it really mattered a chap who was a Republican mayor and has donated huge sums to the GOP not so long ago would be ran out of town....

    The hypocrisy of this ****show is for years we were told Bernie was a sexist, not a real Dem, not woke enough, but once Bloomberg comes calling those "principles" are ignored.

    [/url]

    Bloomberg is not an idealogue though, that's a different situation.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #2246
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,626 ✭✭✭eire4


    StringerBell wrote: »
    Bloomberg is not an idealogue though, that's a different situation.

    No he is just economically a right wing Friedmanite disaster capitalist who will not rock the corporate Democrats boat so they like him. Screw what is in the best economic best interests of the vast majority of Americans the corporate Democrats have no interest in that at all. That is fundamentally why they hate Bernie Sanders.


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    #2247
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,626 ✭✭✭eire4


    dinorebel wrote: »
    Not a hope Trump does any debates

    I would say there is a good chance your right. Although the one thing I will say is that the so called Presidential debates is in fact a perfect example of how the corrupt duopoly on power in DC works. Most Americans think it is some independent body that organizes fair and impartial debates. When in fact it is an actual company set up by the Republican and Democratic parties to act in cartel together to make sure outside voices have as hard a time as possible at getting on a national stage and they have obviously been very successful with it.


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    #2248
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,113 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Good article here on why Biden's case is run. Failure to sweep South Carolina will be the end of the road IWT.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/15/joe-biden-donald-trump-democratic-primary-south-carolina

    That opens a big space for Bloomberg. The Dems choice then is Bloomberg or Sanders. Corporitist versus the people.


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    #2249
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    Water John wrote: »
    Good article here on why Biden's case is run. Failure to sweep South Carolina will be the end of the road IWT.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/15/joe-biden-donald-trump-democratic-primary-south-carolina

    That opens a big space for Bloomberg. The Dems choice then is Bloomberg or Sanders. Corporitist versus the people.
    Bloomberg has up to now faced a serious lack of scrutiny. Once that happens, it's not likely to go well for him. But the danger is that he has been working away in the background absolutely plastering the Super Tuesday states with advertising, and his online ads are good, very good. That works.

    But Bernie Sanders beats everybody in a two way contest. The only other canidate who even comes close to him is Elizabeth Warren.


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    #2250
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,499 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Trump leading the Daytona 500 field to the track in the Presidential vehicles.
    He has made a lot of appearances at sporting events this year.


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    #2251
    Manic Moran
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,220 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Sadly, I was hoping they'd be gunning the limo. I'm sure it's got some HP under there. I bet the driver wanted to as well. "No, you can't do that. Can't give away how fast this thing goes..."


This discussion has been closed.
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