Russian build up along Ukraine

Muahahaha · 24-06-2021 1:29am

Royal Navy shadowed by Russian coastguard today along with 20 fighter jets on radar and a Russian war ship in the distance. Threats were made to them to change their course or shots would be fired, which they were but not on target. There was a BBC journalist on board with a camera crew who got footage of the reaction on the bridge and a fighter jet flying close by
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57583363

Dohvolle · 24-06-2021 2:01am

Muahahaha wrote: »

Royal Navy shadowed by Russian coastguard today along with 20 fighter jets on radar and a Russian war ship in the distance. Threats were made to them to change their course or shots would be fired, which they were but not on target. There was a BBC journalist on board with a camera crew who got footage of the reaction on the bridge and a fighter jet flying close by
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57583363

The MOD statement is at odds with this version of events

Muahahaha · 24-06-2021 12:40pm

Dohvolle wrote: »

The MOD statement is at odds with this version of events

Yeah I know, it is stated in the article I linked. MOD is saying no warning shots were fired but the journalists on board arent agreeing with them with one of them reporting cannon fire from a Russian coastguard vessel and the Commander said the same

The latest incident saw more than 50 interactions with Russian aircraft recorded by Defender in a few hours. Commander Owen told the Mail: 'That is the closest I have come to a Russian vessel in my 21-year career. I suspect the gunfire was from one of the coastguard vehicles.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9718661/Read-dramatic-eyewitness-report-Vladimir-Putin-gunboat-opens-fire.html

MOD claim is that the Russians were performing gunnery exercises in the distance and thats the shots that were fired. But one of the journalists has a source in the UK govt who said they are trying to play down the incident.

Downing Street insisted Defender was taking the 'most direct' route from Ukraine to Georgia along an 'internationally recognised travel corridor' and was not subject to warning shots fired by Russia. A source acknowledged the Government was playing down the incident to deny Moscow the row it is seeking.

Dohvolle · 24-06-2021 12:50pm

BBC footage clearly shows Russians warning that if they didn't change course, they would be fired on. Shows very close pass by Russian Bombers and at least 2 coast guard vessels shadowing RN ship at very close range.

Wonder why MOD are downplaying it so much

Larbre34 · 24-06-2021 2:38pm

The Russians look like chumps as usual.

Russia: We dropped bombs and fired warning shots in the vicinity of these aggressive NATO vessels!

UK: No you bloody didn't. You told us you'd be exercising in the area and we observed that.

Russia: Here is the footage! (aerial footage shows nothing but planes flying about and the RN Destroyer on targetting scanners and cameras.)

This is just more of the same crap we've seen before with Russian jets buzzing US warships while the USN carries on with its exercises.

I'd love to see one of the Russians loose the plot and let a bomb go on a NATO vessel in international waters and watch them get shredded by the NATO offensive weapons.

Dohvolle · 24-06-2021 8:37pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

The Russians look like chumps as usual.

Russia: We dropped bombs and fired warning shots in the vicinity of these aggressive NATO vessels!

UK: No you bloody didn't. You told us you'd be exercising in the area and we observed that.

Russia: Here is the footage! (aerial footage shows nothing but planes flying about and the RN Destroyer on targetting scanners and cameras.)

This is just more of the same crap we've seen before with Russian jets buzzing US warships while the USN carries on with its exercises.

I'd love to see one of the Russians loose the plot and let a bomb go on a NATO vessel in international waters and watch them get shredded by the NATO offensive weapons.

In the BBC footage you can see the HMS Defender crew preparing the Decoy launchers, CIWS and Secondary armament.
It would not have ended well for the Russian coastguard vessels. Love how the British skipper was using VS flags which the russians didn't seem to notice (because they were too far away to see it).

TheValeyard · 16-11-2021 3:28pm

Well, this seems like it's heating up.

Larbre34 · 16-11-2021 5:39pm

I dunno. Its no warmer, really, than at any point in the 7 odd years of conflict. The sabre rattling has always ebbed and flowed.

Putin knows if he starts anything serious in Ukraine proper, it will inevitably draw the West into active participation and he will lose Crimea, the Donestk enclave and his natural gas income.

The cancellation of Nord Stream II by Germany certainly ratchets up the stakes, but it doesn't really alter the geopolitical reality on the ground.

What's interesting from an Irish perspective is the pan-European approach. I saw on the news earlier, the NATO Sec Gen Stolltenberg in the EU Commission building in Brussels, standing in front of a bank of EU flags, giving an interview following an EU Defence Minister's meeting as if he were speaking for both bodies. Bearing in mind Poland, Latvia and Lithuania have formally commenced a NATO Article 4 process, fearing for their territorial integrity.

Is the line between the European NATO members and the EU itself thinning even more? Where will Ireland stand in possible NATO military action in Belarus or Ukraine

roadmaster · 16-11-2021 5:46pm

The same place we stood on the cold war on the Fence. We allowed Nato use airspace and Aeroflot shannon

ZX7R · 16-11-2021 6:36pm

Belarus leader is forcing putin hand in a way.

Firstly threatening to cut the gas supply to Europe, this blind sided putin.

Today lukashenko requested putin to intervene in the Belarus problem by what ever means necessary.

Putin likes to flex his military muscle but he definitely doesn't want a direct military action with nato.

TheValeyard · 16-11-2021 10:06pm

There's a few things happening I think that may create a tense situation where somebody could do something stupid to escalate things. Belarus, Ukraine, Armenia. Different grievances for all, but all have Russian backing to an extent (separatists in Ukraine)

Larbre34 · 17-11-2021 1:25am

They do, but ZX is right, Putin won't let those elements create a scenario to bring him into direct conflict with NATO, none of them on their own are consequential enough to tip that balance. Its clear enough from Lukashenko's attitude in recent days that he got a spanking from Moscow for pushing his luck.

I also think its a bit rich of NATO to be demanding more from Ukraine in meeting improved governance objectives in order to join the Alliance, when they already include some very dodgy players like Bulgaria, Albania and turkey. NATO can't afford to continue their hypocrisy on that front, its just the sort of geopolitical vacuum that Putin loves to exploit.

Stovepipe · 17-11-2021 11:58am

Maybe because Ukraine is so grossly corrupt and chockfull of Russian sympathisers anyway, that even NATO has to gag.

ZX7R · 17-11-2021 12:26pm

Ukraine is a funny one all right.

Nato is probably more worried that if they are a full member they might do something stupid in regards to Crimea.

Even Poland have stopped lobbying for there membership.

In a strange way both nato and putin are quite happy to leave Ukraine as it is kind of a buffer between the two.

A play area for putin In a way.

[Deleted User] · 04-12-2021 11:38am

Looks like a full Ukraine invasion is looking likely. Hard to see how any modern, developed country could attack another. Putin will blame NATO for getting close to its borders, but that's a lame excuse.

The comparison of Hitler invading the Sudeten and Putin invading the Crimea is stark. Europe was wildly stupid to have allowed itself to be dependent on Russia for energy. Its borderline criminal.

Worrisome times ahead with January being suggested as when they will invade.

Dohvolle · 04-12-2021 5:51pm

Certainly looking that way.

I've been there in December. Ideal country for tanks/paratroopers. East Ua has been very russian leaning for years. The fear is Russia will use this as a precursor to protect "Ethnic Russians", as it did in Crimea.

Larbre34 · 06-12-2021 12:11am

If NATO don't step in, they might as well disband. I mean whats the point when it's appeasement after appeasement.

Its pretty obvious that Russia intends to annex everything east of the Dnieper River and join up Donbass and the Crimea with surrounding regions to create a buffer between Russia proper and the NATO frontier. But after that, for NATO, where does it stop. Moldova left to its fate on their doorstep? Then the Baltics?

If the World doesn't come together to reunify the integrity of Ukraine, then they can really have no right to complain when their own borders and territoreis are threatened by the likes of China in the western Pacific.

sparky42 · 06-12-2021 12:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118275279#Comment_118275279

Ukraine isn't in NATO though, you aren't going to get an intervention beyond diplomatic actions and most likely a reinforcement of the Eastern European nations. There's going to be increased pressure on the nations that aren't hitting the 2% mark.

TheValeyard · 27-01-2022 9:39pm

Hard to know which way this will go.

briany · 02-02-2022 2:17am

Hard to think Russia would genuinely invade Ukraine. It wouldn't match the sly way their government has operated in recent years, what with using the troll armies online and claiming their soldiers were merely in Donbass on holiday. An invasion of Ukrainian by Russia would be heavily banking on the West doing nothing

If Russia does move to go into Ukraine, NATO forces should also go in, IF invited to do so by Kiev. Give cocky Putin a slap on his bald head.

briany · 02-02-2022 2:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118275407#Comment_118275407

Libya not being in NATO didn't stop NATO forces going there in 2011 after a UN security council resolution was passed to allow it. Ukraine is not in NATO but does have cooperation agreements with NATO. If NATO stands idly by while Russia moves in, then NATO isn't worth much.

sparky42 · 02-02-2022 2:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118568792#Comment_118568792

NATO or technically some of NATO launched operations in Libya, but that just highlights the issue. NATO is under no obligation to any nation that isn’t a member whether that’s Ukraine or Finland or Ireland. NATO might choose to involve itself either on a nation by nation approach or by something more coordinated but no NATO has no requirement to counter Russia if NATO chooses not to.

briany · 02-02-2022 2:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118568802#Comment_118568802

I understand that NATO are not under a strict obligation to get involved with a non member but if it's willing to go into Libya, but does nothing if Russia were to invade, then it just shows NATO up as opportunistic rather than an alliance that can maintain global stability. It also makes mockery of the cooperation pact between Ukraine and NATO. Putin has to be shown some genuine pushback by the West at some point. He'll keep pushing and pushing otherwise.

Manic Moran · 02-02-2022 5:21am

I think the word you're looking for is 'realpolitik.' Whatever the moral arguments, even if the moral arguments are the same for an involvement in Libya as in Ukraine, the reality is that the costs incurred by involving in Libya will be far less than involvement in Ukraine.

briany · 02-02-2022 11:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118568893#Comment_118568893

There are costs to helping defend Ukraine, but there are potential costs to standing idly by if Russia do decide to roll in as well.

If we say that realpolitik is the way of the world, then we run the risk of appeasement up to the point that the problem can no longer be ignored and be forced to fight while cursing that preventative measures had not been taken.

I'm not advocating war but I do think that Putin should be made to realise, and his peoples made to realise, that he cannot just push his weight around. It wouldn't end at Ukraine if he moves in and the line will have to be drawn somewhere.