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Recession predictions

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Comments

  • #242
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    zerosugarbuzz wrote: »
    Jeees, Id say you're the fun one at a party.
    I would say he’s the truthful one at the party


  • #243
    Roger the cabin boy
    Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭Roger the cabin boy


    brisan wrote: »
    I would say he’s the truthful one at the party

    Remember Bertie?


  • #244
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Roger the cabin boy wrote: »
    Remember Bertie?
    Considering Bertie was Charlie's apprentice I doubt anyone ever believed Bertie to be truthful


  • #245
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Retail Stores and fast food restaurants are going to treat the market audience here more than ever before like children in their advertising campaigns.

    Macdonalds are a shining example here: Just watch their TV ad.


  • #246
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭combat14


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    I am convinced that we will see massive redundancies when the Covid payments end. It will be scary.
    I already know a few companies that are waiting to pull the trigger.

    job losses and lots of pay cuts too
    all before the green party taxes kick In


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  • #247
    fgordonie
    Registered Users Posts: 5 ✭fgordonie


    There is an article on nielson.com that really concerns me from a company that makes its living from "forecasting" future customer sentiment.
    scenarios-beyond-covid-19-rebound-reboot-reinvent

    Horizion 3 is very concerning to me, we're 3 months away from it.

    50% of my business is gone so I'm in Horizion 2 "Reliant on essentials" since the beginning of June.

    If the car breaks down or needs a major service I'll have to get rid of it that'll put me into Horizion 3 "Survive on absolute basics", i.e. can I pay the rent and buy enough to eat?

    The split between those who will get through the economic impact un-affected and those that will be impoverished is particularly interesting.


  • #248
    Roger the cabin boy
    Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭Roger the cabin boy


    Airbus chop 15000 jobs.


  • #249
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,790 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Roger the cabin boy wrote:
    Airbus chop 15000 jobs.


    I wonder were some of them coming anyway due to the end of production of the a380


  • #250
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    No 2nd wave is crucial to the economic recovery.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-faces-deep-downturn-this-year-and-may-not-rebound-until-2024-if-there-is-a-second-wave-1.4294913
    Ireland faces 'deep downturn' this year and may not rebound until 2024 if there is a second wave.

    This warning is based on the worst-case scenario laid out in the Central Bank’s latest quarterly analysis of the economy. This scenario assumes the strict lockdown period has a more damaging impact on economic activity and that there is a resurgence of coronavirus at some point over the next year, with the economy contracting by nearly 14 per cent for 2020 and the Government’s budget deficit ballooning to €30 billion.

    In a more benign scenario, the Central Bank predicts that the economy could rebound by 2022, provided there is a gradual reopening of the economy this year and no resurgence of coronavirus.


  • #251
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    No 2nd wave is crucial to the economic recovery.

    PRAY that there isn't a 2nd wave.

    Hard to convince many "Koolkidz" though:

    I was snarked at by another goon my age for wearing a "gas mask" ( it is an N95, good sir) in the Square Tallaght the other day.


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  • #252
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,790 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Deleted User wrote: »
    PRAY that there isn't a 2nd wave.

    Hard to convince many "Koolkidz" though:

    I was snarked at by another goon my age for wearing a "gas mask" ( it is an N95, good sir) in the Square Tallaght the other day.

    2nd wave more than likely as most pandemics have had them in the past, and with a reopening of the economy, many not wearing masks and not taking the necessary safety measures, its best to prepare for it, unfortunately


  • #253
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,055 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    combat14 wrote: »
    all before the green party taxes kick In

    The planned increase in tax on petrol is 17 cent per litre, by 2030.

    So maybe an extra 2 cent per litre per year.


  • #254
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,790 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Geuze wrote: »
    The planned increase in tax on petrol is 17 cent per litre, by 2030.

    So maybe an extra 2 cent per litre per year.

    fcuk sake, im gonna be starving for those years, i guess im gonna have to drink petrol instead


  • #255
    saabsaab
    Registered Users Posts: 7,737 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Geuze wrote: »
    The planned increase in tax on petrol is 17 cent per litre, by 2030.

    So maybe an extra 2 cent per litre per year.


    Very low. Wouldn't even be noticed as there is greater variation between fuel stations. Too low actually as prices have dropped since the crisis by near 30 cent.


  • #256
    Geuze
    Registered Users Posts: 13,055 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    saabsaab wrote: »
    Very low. Wouldn't even be noticed as there is greater variation between fuel stations. Too low actually as prices have dropped since the crisis by near 30 cent.

    Yes, it is low.

    Then why are people constantly referring to "Green Party higher taxes"?

    Do the GP plan to increase other taxes?

    I haven't read the PfG in full, yet.

    https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/2020/06/draft-programme-for-govt.pdf


  • #257
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭combat14


    saabsaab wrote: »
    Very low. Wouldn't even be noticed as there is greater variation between fuel stations. Too low actually as prices have dropped since the crisis by near 30 cent.

    I think most people will notice an extra 15% on top of the rise when oil goes back up

    the consumer wont be fooled by "low" green taxes when they have to dip their hand in their pockets


  • #258
    saabsaab
    Registered Users Posts: 7,737 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    combat14 wrote: »
    I think most people will notice an extra 15% on top of the rise when oil goes back up

    the consumer wont be fooled by "low" green taxes when they have to dip their hand in their pockets


    That's the point of it to decrease the usage and encourage the take up of alternatives.


  • #259
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭combat14


    saabsaab wrote: »
    That's the point of it to decrease the usage and encourage the take up of alternatives.

    why would we want to stifle usage the economy is absolutely reeling at the moment and no body can afford the 45000 Volkswagen ecar alternatives..


  • #260
    saabsaab
    Registered Users Posts: 7,737 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    combat14 wrote: »
    why would we want to stifle usage the economy is absolutely reeling at the moment and no body can afford the 45000 Volkswagen ecar alternatives..


    Alternatives are more that VW ecars and a few cent on fossil fuels won't stifle the economy. It may even help the economy by using local renewable alternatives.


  • #261
    cannotlogin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,172 ✭✭✭cannotlogin


    There are so many businesses in Ireland currently on life support due to a number of subsidies at present:-

    - Wages subsidy scheme
    - Deferred rental
    - stay on evictions
    - warehousing of revenue payment
    - loan moratoriums
    - creditors payment plans

    All of the above will come to an end, staring in September/October. Some businesses will be kept going on the basis that Christmas is usually a bumper month in terms of Revenue so bank/suppliers/landlords will gamble on that just in case it is enough to help some businesses get over the worst of it.

    Realistically many businesses won't open after Christmas with further casualties as the year goes on. The cash reserves some businesses have will also be reducing over this time too.

    A second wave may accelerate this but next year is when we will see the real damage I think. As the first tranche of businesses fail, there will be knock on effects to their suppliers, landlords etc and depending on the amount of businesses failing in 2021, the knock on effects will last well into 2022 which could be even worse.

    This will also be compounded by some of the advantages businesses have gained from work from home - more automated processes will reduce staff, reduced numbers of staff in office etc. This will have a negative effect on transport services, petrol stations etc due to reductions in commuters. There will also be reduced footfall in shops, cafes etc if there are less staff in offices.

    We are also looking at increased taxes at some stage as all the borrowing has to be paid back.

    Unlike the last recession, where people could move country or change sector, there are less options available to people which makes me think this will be a deeper recession than last time.

    I'm not trying to be negative, just realistic.


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  • #262
    wassie
    Registered Users Posts: 3,255 ✭✭✭wassie


    I tend to concur.

    My hope is, and I feel I will be disappointed, is that the Government has a real once in a generation opportunity to invest in the infrastructure of this country funded by the ECB at next to nothing. Will be interesting to see what kind of stimulus they commit to.


  • #263
    Roger the cabin boy
    Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭Roger the cabin boy


    cannotlogin wrote: »
    There are so many businesses in Ireland currently on life support due to a number of subsidies at present:-

    - Wages subsidy scheme
    - Deferred rental
    - stay on evictions
    - warehousing of revenue payment
    - loan moratoriums
    - creditors payment plans

    All of the above will come to an end, staring in September/October. Some businesses will be kept going on the basis that Christmas is usually a bumper month in terms of Revenue so bank/suppliers/landlords will gamble on that just in case it is enough to help some businesses get over the worst of it.

    Realistically many businesses won't open after Christmas with further casualties as the year goes on. The cash reserves some businesses have will also be reducing over this time too.

    A second wave may accelerate this but next year is when we will see the real damage I think. As the first tranche of businesses fail, there will be knock on effects to their suppliers, landlords etc and depending on the amount of businesses failing in 2021, the knock on effects will last well into 2022 which could be even worse.

    This will also be compounded by some of the advantages businesses have gained from work from home - more automated processes will reduce staff, reduced numbers of staff in office etc. This will have a negative effect on transport services, petrol stations etc due to reductions in commuters. There will also be reduced footfall in shops, cafes etc if there are less staff in offices.

    We are also looking at increased taxes at some stage as all the borrowing has to be paid back.

    Unlike the last recession, where people could move country or change sector, there are less options available to people which makes me think this will be a deeper recession than last time.

    I'm not trying to be negative, just realistic.

    Reality is a bitch huh...

    I agree with everything you've said.


  • #264
    KyussB
    Registered Users Posts: 2,314 ✭✭✭KyussB


    cannotlogin wrote: »
    ...
    We are also looking at increased taxes at some stage as all the borrowing has to be paid back.
    ...
    Agree with the main thrust of what you say, but on this point, government finances don't operate like household/business finances - Public Debt is typically eroded away by GDP growth (which increases our tax base) over time - and pursuing a policy of holding back GDP growth from its maximum potential (through budget-balancing/austerity), just makes this harder and is bad economics.


  • #265
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭combat14


    saabsaab wrote: »
    Alternatives are more that VW ecars and a few cent on fossil fuels won't stifle the economy. It may even help the economy by using local renewable alternatives.


    15% extra on every journey is more than a few cent
    what are the local renewable alternatives for getting from A to B
    think this is on the wrong thread perhaps


  • #266
    saabsaab
    Registered Users Posts: 7,737 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    combat14 wrote: »
    15% extra on every journey is more than a few cent
    what are the local renewable alternatives for getting from A to B
    think this is on the wrong thread perhaps


    Depends on the A to B involved. Could be bike, walk or public transport (I know it isn't suitable for everyone but there will always be some who lose out). For many it would be a few euro extra, for a few a lot more but would promote other ways to travel or not. Needs to hurt the pocket to work.


  • #267
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    cannotlogin wrote: »
    There are so many businesses in Ireland currently on life support due to a number of subsidies at present:-

    - Wages subsidy scheme
    - Deferred rental
    - stay on evictions
    - warehousing of revenue payment
    - loan moratoriums
    - creditors payment plans

    All of the above will come to an end, staring in September/October. Some businesses will be kept going on the basis that Christmas is usually a bumper month in terms of Revenue so bank/suppliers/landlords will gamble on that just in case it is enough to help some businesses get over the worst of it.

    Realistically many businesses won't open after Christmas with further casualties as the year goes on. The cash reserves some businesses have will also be reducing over this time too.

    A second wave may accelerate this but next year is when we will see the real damage I think. As the first tranche of businesses fail, there will be knock on effects to their suppliers, landlords etc and depending on the amount of businesses failing in 2021, the knock on effects will last well into 2022 which could be even worse.

    This will also be compounded by some of the advantages businesses have gained from work from home - more automated processes will reduce staff, reduced numbers of staff in office etc. This will have a negative effect on transport services, petrol stations etc due to reductions in commuters. There will also be reduced footfall in shops, cafes etc if there are less staff in offices.

    We are also looking at increased taxes at some stage as all the borrowing has to be paid back.

    Unlike the last recession, where people could move country or change sector, there are less options available to people which makes me think this will be a deeper recession than last time.

    I'm not trying to be negative, just realistic.
    Judging by the rate of jobs losses being announced daily in Britain I would say you are being optimistic if anything when forecasting how things will play out here.
    I can see things going rapidly downhill from Sept. onwards


  • #268
    one world order
    Registered Users Posts: 592 ✭✭✭one world order


    brisan wrote: »
    Judging by the rate of jobs losses being announced daily in Britain I would say you are being optimistic if anything when forecasting how things will play out here.
    I can see things going rapidly downhill from Sept. onwards

    September will be very bad for the stock markets. It will be like September 2008 when Lehman Brothers went under. The whole financial system needs to be recreated. Money printing has reinflated the bursted bubbles of the last recession. That’s not going to work this time and we are heading for prolonged bleak times all around the world until a new global financial system is created.


  • #269
    Poor_old_gill
    Registered Users Posts: 2,893 ✭✭✭Poor_old_gill


    When is this stimulus plan being announced & can we expect real vision in it?
    Or will we just get an extended version of a yearly budget announcement where everyone gets a €5er and the measures have no impact at all?

    I've been extremely vociferous in my dislike if Sinn Fein on boards but if the Government dont show some vision, the ability to comprehend the concept of investing & a willingness to tackle our social welfare issues once & for all - they are goosed and SF will canter elections for the next 20 years.


  • #270
    KyussB
    Registered Users Posts: 2,314 ✭✭✭KyussB


    The Plan for Government explicitly agreed to budget-balancing i.e. austerity in ~2 years when FG takes the helm - so we basically have a government of fiscal conservatives, so I'd expect any non-coronavirus-emergency 'stimulus' to be tiny in the first 2 years.


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  • #271
    Poor_old_gill
    Registered Users Posts: 2,893 ✭✭✭Poor_old_gill


    KyussB wrote: »
    The Plan for Government explicitly agreed to budget-balancing i.e. austerity in ~2 years when FG takes the helm - so we basically have a government of fiscal conservatives, so I'd expect any non-coronavirus-emergency 'stimulus' to be tiny in the first 2 years.

    If thats the case then we in big trouble


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