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Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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  • Registered Users Posts: 522 ✭✭✭mwrf


    Got travel plans or have you already booked flights, but doubting whether your trip will go ahead? KLM would like to offer you a helping hand by temporarily introducing the option to change your ticket without a change fee. You can change the period in which you choose to fly as well as the destination. The costs of any fare differences will remain applicable. This option is valid for bookings made by 31 March 2020 for flights departing by 31 May 2020.

    Got this from KLM this morning. Bookings must be taking a big hit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,258 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    mwrf wrote: »
    Got this from KLM this morning. Bookings must be taking a big hit.

    Ryanair and Easyjet won't be issuing refunds anytime soon..

    However I can see more and more airlines cutting routes down to the minimum, and perhaps completely into Italy, Milan, Rome. etc.

    Even with those Italian routes going ahead this month then 1/3rd of flights will be empty with no-shows....

    U.S routes won't be affected just yet....


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,727 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    Even with those Italian routes going ahead this month then 1/3rd of flights will be empty with no-shows.....

    A "No Show" has no impact on the operating company though I assume, they just get to fly a lighter plane, burn less fuel, and get paid the same, they also don't have to pay the landing fees which you can be sure 90%+ of the "No Showers" won't bother to claim themselves?

    It's once the load factors start taking a hit from people not being willing to travel that the bottom line will suffer carnage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 790 ✭✭✭LiamaDelta


    Inquitus wrote: »
    A "No Show" has no impact on the operating company though I assume, they just get to fly a lighter plane, burn yes fuel and get paid the same, they also don't have to pay the landing fees which you can be sure 90%+ of the "No Showers" won't bother to claim themselves?

    It's once the load factors start taking a hit from people not being willing to travel that the bottom line will suffer carnae.

    depends on the business...some airlines depend on the ancillary revenue for their profit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,920 ✭✭✭billy few mates


    Inquitus wrote: »
    A "No Show" has no impact on the operating company though I assume, they just get to fly a lighter plane, burn less fuel, and get paid the same, they also don't have to pay the landing fees which you can be sure 90%+ of the "No Showers" won't bother to claim themselves?

    It's once the load factors start taking a hit from people not being willing to travel that the bottom line will suffer carnage.

    Apart from the hit on the ancillary revenue which is 25% of the revenue in the case of Ryanair and easyJet there's the risk that people suddenly finding themselves on an empty flight starts questioning whether or not they should be flying themselves.
    My colleague flew on an easyJet flight earlier this week which had only seven passengers on it. His thoughts were if nobody else is flying maybe I shouldn't be either...


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,730 ✭✭✭Comhrá


    Slightly off topic but significant response from Lufthansa to Coronavirus:
    Lufthansa Group grounds 20% of its fleet and will reduce capacity by 50% in the coming weeks

    https://www.airlive.net/alert-lufthansa-grounds-20-of-its-fleet-due-to-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1Oo1b0sI_Qe5t6qlR59wFnesceA4zYpG1YWR4rU6b8osQQlstTD8a5Ypw

    German airline giant Lufthansa said it would ground 150 of its more than 750 planes worldwide, days after announcing a slimmed-down timetable over the effects of the novel coronavirus.

    “25 long-haul aircraft and 125 short- and medium-haul aircraft” will no longer fly, a spokesman for the group also including carriers Eurowings, Austrian and Swiss told AFP.

    Lufthansa said on Friday that its family of airlines would slash capacity by 50% in the coming weeks due to the coronavirus epidemic, making deeper cuts than earlier announced that will affect “all traffic areas”.

    In addition, the extent to which the entire Airbus A380 fleet (14 aircraft) can be temporarily taken out of service in Frankfurt and Munich is currently being examined.

    The group has suspended routes to other virus hotspots, including China and Iran, to late April.

    Lufthansa has also suspended new hires as part of its measures to cushion the business impact of the virus, which it said Monday was “not yet possible to estimate”.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,183 ✭✭✭kevinandrew


    Aer Lingus has announced no change fees on new bookings.

    https://www.aerlingus.com/plan-and-book/plan/book-with-peace-of-mind/

    Like many airlines, Aer Lingus is no doubt experiencing a serious decline in forward bookings and this appears a (possibly futile) attempt at boosting bookings or at least confidence. British Airways has made a similar move.

    There has been no change to cancellation or change fees for current bookings.

    Ryanair has so far refused to budge on any of its change fees policy unless the airline itself cancels your flight.

    ———————

    The response from Lufthansa is drastic, it possibly says more about the airline itself than the situation, they’re clearly finding themselves more susceptible to this crisis than others.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,124 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    This is a quiet time of the year to start with

    I've flown around this time of the year regularly and not unusual to have 20-40 on a A320 flying back from Berlin/Dusseldorf

    So while numbers are vastly down the numbers were not great anyway


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,258 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Ryanair has so far refused to budge on any of its change fees policy unless the airline itself cancels your flight..

    They're managing to get out of paying refunds to destinations such as Israel, Jordan, Georgia etc. for flights out of Italy as the local governments have cancelled flights out of high risk areas...

    So Ryanair get to save on costs of running a crewed aircraft, plus get to retain passengers airfares, only loss for them is on ancillaries, but still a net gain..


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,196 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Comhra wrote: »

    Yup had my outbound to frankfurt flight with them at the end of the month cancelled. They've put me onto the next one out of dublin about 2 hours later and also rearranged by connecting flight to vienna


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,183 ✭✭✭kevinandrew


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    They're managing to get out of paying refunds to destinations such as Israel, Jordan, Georgia etc. for flights out of Italy as the local governments have cancelled flights out of high risk areas...

    So Ryanair get to save on costs of running a crewed aircraft, plus get to retain passengers airfares, only loss for them is on ancillaries, but still a net gain..

    Ryanair should be offering refunds, reroutes or rebooking on any flights they’ve cancelled.

    https://www.ryanair.com/ie/en/useful-info/disruptions-and-refunds/coronavirus-covid-19


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,258 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Ryanair should be offering refunds, reroutes or rebooking on any flights they’ve cancelled.


    They're still running flights from Italy into Georgia from what I read here:

    GEORGIA

    Due to the impact of COVID-19 and following the request of governmental owned Georgian airports, we have suspended a number of flights from Italy to Georgia. All customers affected by these specific changes have been notified of their options of a full refund or a free flight time/date change.

    Flights from Milan Bergamo to Tbilisi will operate until 7th of March and are reduced to 2 weekly frequency from 8th March until 7th April inclusive
    Flights from Bologna to Kutaisi will operate until 7th of March and will be cancelled from 8th March until 7th April inclusive


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,585 ✭✭✭IngazZagni


    This is a quiet time of the year to start with

    I've flown around this time of the year regularly and not unusual to have 20-40 on a A320 flying back from Berlin/Dusseldorf

    So while numbers are vastly down the numbers were not great anyway

    It is a quiet time of the year however this is noted as being a very busy time of year for summer holiday bookings. Airlines would be used to getting lots of summer holiday bookings this time of year but that is clearly not happening and they know it hence this move.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 9,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tenger


    IngazZagni wrote: »
    It is a quiet time of the year however this is noted as being a very busy time of year for summer holiday bookings. Airlines would be used to getting lots of summer holiday bookings this time of year but that is clearly not happening and they know it hence this move.

    Absolutely. Airlines get a surge of revenue at this time of year.
    Whether it’s holidaymakers or conference attendees.

    Airlines know the customer behaviour. They aren’t going on a hunch.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,843 ✭✭✭Van.Bosch


    Aer Lingus offering free cancellation on bookings made from today.

    Little detail on when it is until but it means I can book a few trips and push out if needed, so it works.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,727 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Van.Bosch wrote: »
    Aer Lingus offering free cancellation on bookings made from today.

    Little detail on when it is until but it means I can book a few trips and push out if needed, so it works.

    As long as there is no major movement in the prices its a fair offer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,845 ✭✭✭trellheim


    Aer Lingus offering free cancellation on bookings made from today.
    Yeek must have been a savage dropoff


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,843 ✭✭✭Van.Bosch


    trellheim wrote: »
    Yeek must have been a savage dropoff

    Sorry - it’s free changes, not cancellations.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,258 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Tenger wrote: »
    Absolutely. Airlines get a surge of revenue at this time of year..

    Problem now for all Airlines is that the revenue gained in bookings for the upcoming season are the cash they'll need to get through the next winter/low season 2020/21.. After this month the summer schedule will come into effect...

    If there's not enough bookings for this summer season then we'll see further route cuts, staff layoffs, and weaker airlines going bust...

    I think this current crisis which is still far from reaching its peak continues then we may see the face of aviation travel changing for a very long time to come, with people changing their travel habits and low-cost carriers disappearing...

    Not to mention manufacturers like Airbus considering suspending production of the 330Neo.
    And Boeing having 1000's of Max's which may never get delivered now...


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,090 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Airbus have said they are looking at cutting, not suspending, 330neo production - unless sometimes massively changed since yesterday.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,925 ✭✭✭GM228


    L1011 wrote: »
    Airbus have said they are looking at cutting, not suspending, 330neo production - unless sometimes massively changed since yesterday.

    Not helped by AisAsiaX (the biggest single customer of the A330neo) deferring delivery of their 78 A330neos no doubt.

    Cutting production makes sense as there is still a healthy backlog of various airframes anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    Weird seeing the headlines re quarantine of Lombardy but plenty of flights still going to and from Milan, for example.


  • Registered Users Posts: 215 ✭✭Coil Kilcrea


    Just curious, which is better from an airline's perspective significantly reduce capacity, owning or leasing the planes?


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 9,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tenger


    Just curious, which is better from an airline's perspective significantly reduce capacity, owning or leasing the planes?

    Leasing contracts will usually have a "end lease early" penalty clause.
    This allows the airline to offload excess capacity (for a once off payment) if they need to. If you own the aircraft its harder to get rid of in a global downturn as suddenly there are lots of planes for sales and lease.

    So the terms of the lease will determine the penalty clause


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,258 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Nijmegen wrote: »
    Weird seeing the headlines re quarantine of Lombardy but plenty of flights still going to and from Milan, for example.

    Situation is changing rapidly in that region now, of which Malpensa and Bergamo are located..

    I would imagine it's only a matter of days before severe restrictions if not closures are ordered for the airports also...


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/08/leaked-coronavirus-plan-to-quarantine-16m-sparks-chaos-in-italy


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 9,698 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tenger


    Tenzor07 wrote: »
    Situation is changing rapidly in that region now, of which Malpensa and Bergamo are located..

    I would imagine it's only a matter of days before severe restrictions if not closures are ordered for the airports also...

    Doesn't this just announced lockdown already cover flights?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,991 ✭✭✭Caranica


    Tenger wrote: »
    Doesn't this just announced lockdown already cover flights?

    Airports are excluded.

    It's not just Milan area airports that are in locked down areas, Venice and Treviso too. All currently open


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,258 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Tenger wrote: »
    Doesn't this just announced lockdown already cover flights?

    Just checked:
    Airline Alitalia is reorganising air services at Milan and Venice airports from Monday following the Italian government's coronavirus measures. It will operate only domestic flights to and from Milan Linate Airport and serve international routes from Rome airport

    No point in closing roads and train lines if people can still take a flight out of the region....


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,258 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    Israel are now considering banning All flights into the country, not just from Italy, Iran or China...


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  • Registered Users Posts: 262 ✭✭PinOnTheRight


    It seems confirmed now that Lufthansa will temporarily ground it's fleet of 14 A380s. Virgin has brought forward the retirement of their last 3 A340-600s to this week.

    I believe EI are looking volunteers for unpaid leave in roles across the operation including aircrew. :(


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