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Residential Property Data/Statistics/Reports

«13

Comments

  • #2
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    Adding opinion Poll, hope it works...


  • #3
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    Mortgage Approvals 2020 March
    Visible some impact of Covid, overall Annual decrease 9,9% Year-on-Year, for March.
    https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-March-2020-website.pdf

    Mortgage Drawdowns 2020 Q1
    In overall there are no much change:
    "Mortgage drawdown activity rose in volume terms by 1.8% year-on-year and increased in value terms by 6.0% over the same period."
    Where as highest increase comes from FTB:
    "First-time buyer (FTB) mortgage drawdown volumes increased by 8.4% year-on-year to 4,400"
    Highest decrease from Investment:
    "Residential investment letting (RIL) mortgage drawdown volumes decreased by 14.7% year-on-year to 232."
    https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-Report-Q1-2020-for-website.pdf

    In comparison with 2008 Q1, it has similar number of Second hand drawdowns, but around 4 times lower on Total New builds drawdowns.

    Year_Q | FTB New | FTB Secondhand | MP New | MP Secondhand | RIL New | RIL Secondhand | Total
    2007_Q1 | 3,871 | 4,048 | 3,936 | 3,883 | 2,092 | 3,136 | 20,967
    2008_Q1 | 2,786 | 1,542 | 3,137 | 2,032 | 2,147 | 1,653 | 13,299
    2009_Q1 | 1,176 | 1,180 | 808 | 1,378 | 215 | 752 | 5,509
    2019_Q1 | 1,186 | 2,875 | 610 | 1,730 | 13 | 259 | 6,673
    2020_Q1 | 1,411 | 2,989 | 552 | 1,748 | 11 | 221 | 6,932


  • #4
    Pivot Eoin
    Registered Users Posts: 564 ✭✭✭Pivot Eoin


    Fall 20-30%
    Thanks for this Marius, would be keen to get some engagement going on this to keep it near the top of the Accom/Property Boards- both for the benefit of Relevant stats on the current market, but also to gauge people's views in the Poll above.


  • #5
    WeeCuppaCha
    Registered Users Posts: 96 ✭✭WeeCuppaCha


    Fall 10-20%
    Bump


  • #6
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    Today CSO published Residential Property Price Index March 2020, this can be seen as the last Pre-Covid transaction report.
    Overly property price stable, with minor increase on Year-to-Year basis.
    "Residential property prices increased by 1% nationally in the year to March. "
    "In Dublin, residential property prices increased by 0.6% in the year to March"

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexmarch2020/


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  • #7
    Pivot Eoin
    Registered Users Posts: 564 ✭✭✭Pivot Eoin


    Fall 20-30%
    Bump: Please answer Poll at the top


  • #8
    Dolbhad
    Registered Users Posts: 782 ✭✭✭Dolbhad


    Thanks for creating a thread like this!


  • #9
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Fall Over 30%
    Facts are good. Too many in this forum prefer fiction.


  • #10
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    I had a look at KBC report published today.
    It’s the first Financial institution, that I have seen, which provides forecast for Irish Property price, during the Covid crisis.
    https://www.kbc.com/content/dam/kbccom/doc/investor-relations/Results/1Q2020/1Q2020-company-presentation.pdf

    Here is their forecast for the Base scenario for Ireland:
    Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022
    GDP | -5.0% | +4.0% | +3.5%
    Unemployment | 14.0% | 9.0% | 6.0%
    House Price | -12.0% | +8.0% | +5.0%


    I understand in current uncertainty it’s very difficult to forecast, but their numbers looks a bit premature to me, if that’s the right term. Property price typically is not as volatile, in other words does not fluctuate that fast. It definitely can happen, in unexpected events, but it’s weird to see it in their base case forecast scenario for 2020 vs 2021.
    As well 2020 GDP for Ireland, base forecast is more optimistic than any other reports I've seen, with -5%, whereas for Euro Area their base scenario -11.3%. I can’t grasp how they are getting such massive differences.


  • #11
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Fall Over 30%
    Marius34 wrote: »
    I had a look at KBC report published today.
    It’s the first Financial institution, that I have seen, which provides forecast for Irish Property price, during the Covid crisis.
    https://www.kbc.com/content/dam/kbccom/doc/investor-relations/Results/1Q2020/1Q2020-company-presentation.pdf

    Here is their forecast for the Base scenario for Ireland:
    Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022
    GDP | -5.0% | +4.0% | +3.5%
    Unemployment | 14.0% | 9.0% | 6.0%
    House Price | -12.0% | +8.0% | +5.0%


    I understand in current uncertainty it’s very difficult to forecast, but their numbers looks a bit premature to me, if that’s the right term. Property price typically is not as volatile, in other words does not fluctuate that fast. It definitely can happen, in unexpected events, but it’s weird to see it in their base case forecast scenario for 2020 vs 2021.
    As well 2020 GDP for Ireland, base forecast is more optimistic than any other reports I've seen, with -5%, whereas for Euro Area their base scenario -11.3%. I can’t grasp how they are getting such massive differences.

    I think slide says situation as of March 31st? Just above tables starting side 21


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  • #12
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    Hubertj wrote: »
    I think slide says situation as of March 31st? Just above tables starting side 21

    Correct, but it was released today to the press, as well as on their website:
    https://www.kbc.com/en/investor-relations/presentations/presentations-2020.html

    I guess "situation at March 31,2020", it means based on 2020 Q1 data.


  • #13
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Marius34 wrote: »
    I had a look at KBC report published today.
    It’s the first Financial institution, that I have seen, which provides forecast for Irish Property price, during the Covid crisis.
    https://www.kbc.com/content/dam/kbccom/doc/investor-relations/Results/1Q2020/1Q2020-company-presentation.pdf

    Here is their forecast for the Base scenario for Ireland:
    Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022
    GDP | -5.0% | +4.0% | +3.5%
    Unemployment | 14.0% | 9.0% | 6.0%
    House Price | -12.0% | +8.0% | +5.0%


    I understand in current uncertainty it’s very difficult to forecast, but their numbers looks a bit premature to me, if that’s the right term. Property price typically is not as volatile, in other words does not fluctuate that fast. It definitely can happen, in unexpected events, but it’s weird to see it in their base case forecast scenario for 2020 vs 2021.
    As well 2020 GDP for Ireland, base forecast is more optimistic than any other reports I've seen, with -5%, whereas for Euro Area their base scenario -11.3%. I can’t grasp how they are getting such massive differences.

    The difference in the different impacts relative to the other countries are quite odd as well.

    The base case prediction for 2020 GDP Ireland vs Belgium is -5% vs -9.5%; at first glance that looks kind of encouraging.

    But they say they this expect to occur alongside 14% unemployment and a 12% drop in house prices in Ireland, vs 6.2% and houses down 3% in Belgium.

    And then in 2021 they expect Belgiums GDP to bounce back strongly at 12.3% vs us at 4%.

    And that meanwhile Belgian house prices will continue to fall by 2% and that ours will bounce back strongly by 8%.

    SO over the three years to 2022 they are predicting that Belgium will have a net gain in GDP with a net fall in house prices and we are the opposite - our economy will be in recession but our house prices will have risen.

    Are KBC telling us they think our house prices are fundamentally undervalued? Seems to be the logical conclusion from just looking at their numbers.


  • #14
    Pivot Eoin
    Registered Users Posts: 564 ✭✭✭Pivot Eoin


    Fall 20-30%
    Bump - Please vote on the Poll at Top.


  • #15
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,523 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Pivot Eoin wrote: »
    Bump - Please vote on the Poll at Top.

    Stop bumping threads


  • #16
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    Another report with House Price prediction, this one from ESRI.
    https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/WP661_0.pdf

    Unfortunately they don't have base case scenario, but rather 2 scenarios: "V-shaped" & "Sluggish", which I believe would be equivalent of Optimistic & Pessimist scenarios.
    In "V-shaped" scenario they see no change in price for 2021 Q4 vs 2020 Q1
    In "Sluggish" scenario they see 12% decrease for 2021 Q4 vs 2020 Q1.


  • #17
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
    Update for April. It has recorded a big increase in Household deposits (around €3 Billion), details below.
    Loans for Private House Purchase:
    2020 April - 73,277 mil (decrease -74 mil MoM & -925 mil YoY),
    Private Household deposits:
    2020 April - 115,978 mil (increase +2,981 mil MoM & +9,699 mil YoY)
    https://www.centralbank.ie/statistics/data-and-analysis/credit-and-banking-statistics/bank-balance-sheets/bank-balance-sheets-data


  • #18
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    Mortgage Approvals 2020 April
    Published Mortgage Approvals for April. First full month of the Lockdown.
    "First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
    decreased by 51.0% year-on-year to 1,034 while mover
    purchase approval volumes decreased by 51.0%
    year-on-year to 528."
    https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-Apr-20-for-web.pdf


  • #19
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    Just reminder, Poll on the TOP of this Thread will close today at 10PM.
    This should give an idea of general consensus for this Group.


  • #20
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Fall Over 30%
    8.2% believe prices will increase!!!!!!???!!!!!
    i admire the optimism!


  • #21
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    Today CSO published Residential Property Price Index April 2020.
    Overly property price stable.
    "Residential property prices increased by 0.5% nationally in the year to April."
    "In Dublin, residential property prices decreased by 0.1% in the year to April "

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexapril2020/


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  • #22
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    Mortgage Approvals 2020 May
    Second Month of lock-down, as expected April-June should show very low number of Approvals before some kind of recovery.
    "First-time buyer (FTB) mortgage approval volumes decreased by 66.2% year-on-year to 852
    while mover purchase approval volumes decreased by 67.3% year-on-year to 424."

    https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-May-2020.pdf


  • #23
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
    Update for May. It has recorded another big increase in Household deposits (around €1,5 Billion), but not as big as in April.
    Details below.
    Loans for Private House Purchase:
    2020 May- 73,177 mil (decrease -98 mil MoM & -1,123 mil YoY),
    Private Household deposits:
    2020 May- 117,490 mil (increase +1,483 mil MoM & +10,489 mil YoY)


  • #24
    Pivot Eoin
    Registered Users Posts: 564 ✭✭✭Pivot Eoin


    Fall 20-30%
    Thanks Marius, very useful reports today.


  • #25
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    Mortgage Approvals 2020 June
    Approval slightly higher from lowest month of May, but still only around 50% of Pre-Covid.
    "Mortgage approval activity decreased in volume terms by 49.5% year-on-year"
    "First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage approval volumes
    decreased by 54.6% year-on-year"
    https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-Jun-2020-for-web.pdf

    Mortgage Drawdowns 2020 Q2
    "Mortgage drawdown activity fell in volume terms by 34.8% year-on-year"
    "First-time buyer(FTB) mortgage drawdown volumes decreased by 34.8% year-on-year"
    https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-Report-Q2-2020.pdf


  • #26
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    3) Household Mortgage vs Household Deposits
    Update for June. Another increase in Household deposits (around €0,8 Billion), but lowest increase since lockdown.
    Details below.
    Loans for Private House Purchase:
    2020 Jun- 73,390 mil (increase +213 mil MoM & decrease -1,069 mil YoY),
    Private Household deposits:
    2020 Jun- 118,301 mil (increase +835 mil MoM & +10,549 mil YoY)


  • #27
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    I have missed prediction from AIB.

    This is the base case scenario for their predictions:

    Metric|2020|2021|2022
    GDP|-7.5%|6.3%|3.5%
    Unemployment|10.0%|9.0%|7.1%
    House Price|-5.5%|-4.5%|4.0%


    https://aib.ie/content/dam/aib/investorrelations/docs/resultscentre/2020/aib-half-yearly-financial-results-presentation-2020.pdf


  • #28
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Decrease 0-10%
    Thought there would be more interest in this thread.

    The market is stalled at the moment for a variety of reasons. So its in a bubble. So the data comparisons are really only reflecting that pause on economic activity.
    It will be while before a useful trend appears. Once the existing pent up demand, and existing supply have been depleted, then we'll start to see to more clearly.
    Some of these predictions, especially if they were based on pre covid estimates are largely irrelevant now.


  • #29
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    beauf wrote: »
    Thought there would be more interest in this thread.

    The market is stalled at the moment for a variety of reasons. So its in a bubble. So the data comparisons are really only reflecting that pause on economic activity.
    It will be while before a useful trend appears. Once the existing pent up demand, and existing supply have been depleted, then we'll start to see to more clearly.
    Some of these predictions, especially if they were based on pre covid estimates are largely irrelevant now.

    The predictions by KBC, ESRI was create during the full lockdown in May. AIB in July.
    I haven't seen any other predictions so far for Irish property on Covid times.


  • #30
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Decrease 0-10%
    This has to be based on last year, what happened the last crash and the unpredictable repercussions of the pandemic. Which are still reverberating around the world. So largely unknown.

    That said I can't see it being worse than the previous crashes or as quick. I can't see it being v shaped or bouncing back either. I don't believe Chinas reports. So some middle ground in all that.

    Which is why comparing all the figures as you have done puts this in context. I think another part of the puzzle is comparing it with the crash.

    What do you think.


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  • #31
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Fall 10-20%
    beauf wrote: »
    This has to be based on last year, what happened the last crash and the unpredictable repercussions of the pandemic. Which are still reverberating around the world. So largely unknown.

    That said I can't see it being worse than the previous crashes or as quick. I can't see it being v shaped or bouncing back either. I don't believe Chinas reports. So some middle ground in all that.

    Which is why comparing all the figures as you have done puts this in context. I think another part of the puzzle is comparing it with the crash.

    What do you think.

    Right, it's very difficult to predict in current situation, but those are not predictions based on the past, but a forward looking conditions. Like for example AIB expect unemployment for next year (or end of 2021) to be at 9%, so the prediction is based on this condition and not past.
    I believe they have a hard time currently to make any predictions, as there is little covid data, and things like lockdown does not fall in any of their models.


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