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The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

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13567…86

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    #62
    northgirl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,434 ✭✭✭northgirl


    weisses wrote: »
    True ... Heavy rain and strong gusts

    Just starting to pick up in Cork city now too. All familiar sounds at this stage :rolleyes:


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    #63
    downwiththatsor
    Registered Users Posts: 910 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    Latest Hirlam appears to be sticking to its guns on the storm track over the South West
    http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,419


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    #64
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,060 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    All eyes on RTE1 in a few minutes.....


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    #65
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Villain wrote: »

    I think the Alert Levels here should either echo Met Eireann's or not be present at all, I mean Met Eireann have issued an Orange Warning which is a serious threat yet we only see a level 1 here for a system which is over 48 hours away.

    I would go with 'not present' full stop. As they seem to put an onus on the main forecasters on here, who would, in my opinion, rather just discuss potential and ever changing situations. Reading MT's post a few days ago seems to confirm this. Put up a level 3, they'll get accused of hyping it up too much; put up a 'level 1' then chances are there will be complaints of not hyping it up enough. The Big 3 or 4 on here should not have to deal with that at all.

    New Moon



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    #66
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Evelyn a bit understated with forecast there - still uncertain I guess. But seems if it does hit us it will move away quick enough


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    #67
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Yep she played it safe but to be fair its very uncertain and she did mention the risk
    293242.jpg


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    #68
    Cork Lass
    Registered Users Posts: 6,806 ✭✭✭Cork Lass


    It's taken a fairly nasty turn here in Cork. Howling wind and heavy rain.


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    #69
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    downwiththatsor wrote: »
    Latest Hirlam appears to be sticking to its guns on the storm track over the South West
    http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,419

    Sustained storm force from Cork and Kerry to Clare and maybe even Galway on that run, a massive difference to Cornwall or Southern Wales taking a direct hit as the UKMO are suggesting. Forecasters will really be earning their money over then next 24 hours!


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    #70
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    GFS coming around again on the 18z towards the ECMWF track

    gfs-0-42.png?18


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    #71
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Look at this gradient over southern Ireland...

    Dangerous @45hrs

    gfs-0-45-3h.png?18


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    #72
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Latest Met Eireann Outlook sums it up pretty well:
    Extremely windy or possibly storm conditions are likely on Wednesday, with heavy rain or sleet, and some local flooding.
    Some structural damage is also possible. The exact track of the approaching low pressure is still not certain, so keep in tune with updates.


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    #73
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    wow, very nasty GFS for Wednesday Rtavn481.gif


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    #74
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    100 knots @ 850hPa over Ireland Wednesday with a sting-jet a very real threat............

    Rtavn4812.gif


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    #75
    Steopo
    Registered Users Posts: 239 ✭✭Steopo


    Wow, 18z GFS has moved us right into the firing line and if it keeps that track we're looking at a very dangerous storm for Ireland


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    #76
    Weathering
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Snow on the Northern edge a possibility?


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    #77
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Its a bloody hurricane guys!!


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    #78
    dfbemt
    Registered Users Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭dfbemt


    On Joans forecast why are the arrows on the isobar underneath "Violent Storm Force Eleven" going in the opposite direction (East to West) ???


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    #79
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    Its a bloody hurricane guys!!

    Not far off, latest runs has a patch of sustained Hurricane force winds off running onto the southwest coast!


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    #80
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,145 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Villain wrote: »
    I would agree with you only there has been a lot of comments here in the past where people have had a go at Met Eireann and said they trust forecasts here etc.

    I think the Alert Levels here should either echo Met Eireann's or not be present at all, I mean Met Eireann have issued an Orange Warning which is a serious threat yet we only see a level 1 here for a system which is over 48 hours away.

    You have made your views on this quite apparent no need to keep repeating yourself


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    #81
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Timing may change but if we were to take the 18z GFS as gospel it would actually be very concerning for Dublin.

    Striking right @ evening rush hour with sustained winds of 40-45kts with gusts probably hitting 70kts in the wrap around cloud head.

    Would be dangerous on the roads with flying debris etc.

    Very difficult call for Met Eireann tomorrow if things looks similar, what is the advise if you think there is a high risk of 70kt+ wind gusts hitting the capital city at rush-hour?


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    #82
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Highest mean wind speed recorded at Valentia is 107 km/h in September 1961. 18Z GFS has sustained winds of ~120 km/h touching there.

    Will it actually verify? Who knows, but quite amazing to see at under 48 hours now.


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    #83
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    It's gone very nasty in Cork City now - very gusty with heavy rain; can only imagine what Wednesday will be like!


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    #84
    NegativeCreep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,351 ✭✭✭NegativeCreep


    Being really selfish here but I hope this happens. Dublin hasn't had any real exciting weather at all :/ Everywhere else is hogging it. cheek.


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    #85
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    This is really wow stuff to see at such short range. But I've seen it all go balls up in the last 24hrs before it happens. Certainly concerning though .


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    #86
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Timing may change but if we were to take the 18z GFS as gospel it would actually be very concerning for Dublin.

    Striking right @ evening rush hour with sustained winds of 40-45kts with gusts probably hitting 70kts in the wrap around cloud head.

    Would be dangerous on the roads with flying debris etc.

    Very difficult call for Met Eireann tomorrow if things looks similar, what is the advise if you think there is a high risk of 70kt+ wind gusts hitting the capital city at rush-hour?

    And what about the rest of the country? I thought it was the South was looking most in danger?


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    #87
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    leahyl wrote: »
    And what about the rest of the country? I thought it was the South was looking most in danger?

    At4eEEf.png


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    #88
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    leahyl wrote: »
    And what about the rest of the country? I thought it was the South was looking most in danger?

    I am just focusing on Dublin there, the south gets the worst of it before it heads north.


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    #89
    Xenji
    Registered Users Posts: 11,505 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    From looking at various runs posted here I have seen the worst of the winds being in the south west and the east, but on some it seems that it will be the north west and the east, which outcome is most likely or do we need to wait on more models in the morning.


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    #90
    downwiththatsor
    Registered Users Posts: 910 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    Another gfs based gust speed with numbers from here-
    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

    18_42_windvector_gust.png?cb=659


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    #91
    Shamrock841
    Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭Shamrock841


    2200z Metar from Cork airport has the wind 190(southerly) 22kts gusting 39kts


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