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February 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

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    #32
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So rather late getting to this, after four weeks

    IMT 5.8 after fourth week 5.7 (0.3 below normal).

    MAX 14

    MIN -2.5

    PRC has increased again to 260% (fourth week 292%).

    SUN has edged back up to 107% with the fourth week at 113% (676/600).

    Some preliminary end of month numbers later, will probably hold to these values generally speaking.


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    #33
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Final values or estimates ...

    IMT 5.8 C

    MAX 14.0

    MIN -2.5 (to be checked, this value would set up minimum progression scoring with reduced boost as two forecasts have raw scores of 19/20) -- looks like it would work out to be normal scoring plus one basically. But not entirely sure we didn't miss a lower value than -2.5, may check a few stations and see if I can find a lower value before 3rd.

    PRC 268% (minimum progression and maximum group shaming)

    SUN 105-110 (to be nailed down from MS)

    The bonus was already discussed and scored back in the thread.

    I may post some provisional scoring as I expect the MS will be out on the third of March.


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    #34
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Confirmed scoring for February 2020

    Checked the MS and aside from a slight change to sunshine, everything else checked out.

    FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus ______ TOTAL

    Confirmed values ____5.8_ 14.0_ -2.5_ 268_ 108__2.3


    dasa29 ______ (-4) _ 22 _ 17*_ 17*_ 06*_ 09 __ 03 _ 74-4= 70

    Joe Public __________22 _ 19*_ 00 _ 04*_ 10 __ 10 ______ 65

    Dacogawa _________ 22 _ 13*_ 08*_ 11*_ 06 __ 04 ______ 64

    Artane2002 ________ 24 _ 01*_ 15*_ 08*_ 06 __ 09 ______ 63

    Kindred Spirit _ (-4) _ 23 _ 08*_ 13*_ 05*_ 08 __ 10 _ 67-4=63

    mickger844posts (-4)_ 25 _ 12*_ 10*_ 08*_ 06 __ 06 _ 67-4=63


    ___ Con Sensus _____24 _ 08*_ 06*_ 07*_ 07 __ 10 ______ 62


    DOCARCH _________ 24 _ 10*_ 05*_ 10*_ 07 __ 05 ______ 61

    Sunflower3 ________ 25 _ 02*_ 20*_ 03*_ 06 __ 04 ______ 60

    M.T. Cranium _______23 _ 08*_ 02*_ 10*_ 06 __ 10 ______ 59

    sryanbruen ________ 21 _ 04*_ 20*_ 07*_ 02 __ 04 ______ 58

    waterways ________ 21 _ 00 __ 06*_ 13*_ 07 __ 07 ______ 54

    Bsal ______________17 _ 20*_ 01*_ 04*_ 07 __ 05 ______ 54

    MrSkinner _________20 _ 08*_ 01*_ 09*_ 07 __ 09 ______ 54

    Jpmarn ___ (-2) ____19 _ 12*_ 01*_ 09*_ 06 __ 06 _ 53-2=51


    ___ NormaL _______ 20 _ 06*_ 00 __06*_ 08 __ 10 ______ 50


    Tae laidir __________ 17 _ 00 _ 14*_ 02*_ 08 __ 08 ______ 49

    john mac __________ 22 _ 01*_ 02*_ 07*_ 08 __ 06 ______ 46

    Adam240610__ (-2) _ 19 _ 02*_ 01*_ 03*_ 08 __ 07 _ 40-2=38

    Rikand ___ (-2) _____18 _ 02*_ 07*_ 03*_ 08 __ 02 _ 40-2=38

    Pauldry ___________ 13 _ 05*_ 01*_ 05*_ 09 __ 03 ______ 36

    BLIZZARD7 __ (-10) _25 _ 02*_ 00 _ 11*_ 06 __ 02 _46-10=36
    _____________________________________________

    * minimum progression applied to MAX was a "reduced boost" (half the increase in points available) as top raw score was 18/20.
    -- the net effect was to raise most scores by 2-3 points and eliminate a lot of zero scores that became 1,2.
    For MIN the same general outcome applies. Most people gained 2-3 points from the procedure.

    For PRC the raw scores were all zero, so I decided that the minimum progression would run from 13 down to zero (out of 15) since nobody ventured that close to the reality. Then as one forecast was a little closer than the pack, the sequence went 13, 11, 11, 10, 10, 9, 9, 8, 8 etc. This worked its way down to a low score of 2 which I thought was fair since the group effort was so wide of the mark.

    At least for IMT and SUN we were all in scoring territory anyway. :)

    Congrats to Dasa29 who has emerged a little ahead of a big clump of others in the low 60s.

    Will get to the annual totals and four seasons later today.

    =================================================

    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ hrs sun Cork 14th

    Pauldry ____________7.0 _ 15.8 _ -5.0 _ 098 _ 104 __ 5.5

    Tae laidir __________ 6.6 _ 16.3 _ -3.4 _ 088 _ 100 __ 2.8

    Rikand ___ (-2) _____6.5 _ 16.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 9.0

    Adam240610__ (-2) _ 6.4 _ 16.0 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 100 __ 3.0

    MrSkinner __________6.3 _ 15.5 _ -4.9 _ 111 _ 095 __ 1.9

    sryanbruen _________6.2 _ 15.9 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 070 __ 0.6

    Dacogawa _________ 6.1 _ 15.1 _ -3.9 _ 134 _ 086 __ 0.5

    M.T. Cranium _______6.0 _ 15.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 090 __ 2.4

    Artane2002 ________ 5.9 _ 16.1 _ -3.2 _ 107 _ 088 __ 2.7

    DOCARCH __________5.9 _ 15.2 _ -4.3 _ 126 _ 092 __ 3.8


    ___ Con Sensus _____5.9 _ 15.5 _ -4.2 _ 101 _ 095 __ 2.6

    Sunflower3 _________5.8 _ 16.0 _ -2.4 _ 090 _ 090 __ 0.5

    BLIZZARD7 __ (-10) _ 5.8 _ 16.0 _ -8.0 _ 134 _ 090 __ 7.4

    mickger844posts (-4)_5.8 _ 15.1 _ -3.7 _ 108 _ 086 __ 3.4

    Kindred Spirit _ (-4) _ 5.6 _ 15.5 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 2.0

    john mac __________ 5.5 _ 16.2 _ -4.7 _ 101 _ 096 __ 1.5

    dasa29 ______ (-4) _ 5.5 _ 14.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 105 __ 6.0

    Joe Public __________5.5 _ 13.7 _ -6.7 _ 096 _ 110 __ 2.0

    waterways _________ 5.4 _ 16.3 _ -4.2 _ 158 _ 095 __ 1.7


    ___ NormaL ________5.3 _ 15.7 _ -6.6 _ 100 _ 100 __ 2.5


    Jpmarn ___ (-2) ____ 5.2 _ 15.1 _ -5.6 _ 120 _ 090 __ 1.5

    Bsal ______________ 5.0 _ 13.8 _ -5.2 _ 095 _ 095 __ 3.5


  • Options
    #35
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,325 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated annual scoring for Jan-Feb 2020


    FORECASTER ________ Jan _ Feb ___ TOTAL


    Mrskinner ___________ 86 _ 54 _____ 140

    Jpmarn _____________ 86 _ 51 _____ 137

    Dacogawa ___________73 _ 64 _____ 137

    Joe Public ___________ 70 _ 65 _____ 135


    ___ Con Sensus ______ 70 _ 62 _____ 132


    M.T. Cranium ________ 69 _ 59 _____ 128

    Sunflower3 __________ 68 _ 60 _____ 128

    Kindred Spirit ________ 61 _ 63 _____ 124


    ___ NormaL _________ 70 _ 50 _____ 120


    DOCARCH ___________58 _ 61 _____ 119

    Artane2002 __________56 _ 63 _____ 119

    Dasa29 _____________ 48 _ 70 _____ 118

    mickger844posts ______55 _ 63 _____ 118

    Tae laidir ____________67 _ 49 _____ 116

    Bsal ________________62 _ 54 _____ 116

    john mac ____________64 _ 46 _____ 110

    Rikand ______________68 _ 38 _____ 106

    sryanbruen __________ 47 _ 58 _____ 105

    BLIZZARD7 __________66 _ 36 _____ 102

    Adam240610 ________ 62 _ 38 _____ 100

    Pauldry _____________63 _ 36 ______ 99


    JCXBXC ____________ 58 _ --- ______ 58

    WesternStorm _______ 54 _ --- ______ 54

    waterways __________ --- _ 54 ______ 54

    esposito ____________ 49 _ --- ______ 54

    200motels __________ 47 _ --- ______ 54

    ==============================================

    note _ this table contains only scoring for those who entered all three months

    Four Seasons contest winter 2019-20 scoring

    FORECASTER ____________ Total score ____ points


    MrSkinner __________________230 ________ 10

    JPmarn ____________________215 __________7


    ____ Con Sensus ____________ 213 _________ 6


    mickger844posts ____________ 206 __________6

    Artane2002 _________________202 _________ 5

    sunflower3 _________________ 199 _________ 4

    Joe Public __________________ 197 _________ 3

    dacogawa __________________ 190 _________ 2

    Bsal _______________________189 _________ 1


    ___ NormaL ________________ 188 __________1


    Tae laidir ___________________186 __________1

    John mac __________________ 180 __________ 1

    Kindred Spirit _______________ 179

    M. T. Cranium _______________179

    DOCARCH __________________ 178

    dasa29 ____________________ 175

    pauldry ____________________ 174

    sryanbruen _________________ 172

    Adam240610 _______________ 170

    Rikand _____________________166

    BLIZZARD7 _________________ 133

    Well done MrSkinner for leading both contests at this early stage.


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