Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Thursday, 6 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values with a downward trend later in the period.
-- Rainfall will average about 75 per cent of normal values (locally above normal in Connacht).
-- Sunshine will average near normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with generally light winds becoming moderate southerly near Atlantic coasts. Highs near 8 C east to 11 C west.

TONIGHT will be overcast and milder with lows 3 to 7 C. Some light rain may develop in the west.

FRIDAY will become rather windy with outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm) expected, heavier by late afternoon and evening. Highs 10 to 13 C. Peak winds by late afternoon and evening south to southwest 70 to 110 km/hr.

SATURDAY will remain quite windy with outbreaks of light rain through most of the day, heavier by late afternoon and evening when it could become very windy (southwest 80 to 120 km/hr). Morning lows near 5 C and afternoon highs 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be stormy in parts of the west and north, and blustery elsewhere, as winds from storm "Ciara" intensify during the day. These winds will be westerly 80 to 130 km/hr in exposed coastal regions and 70 to 110 km/hr most other places. A large impact from this storm is likely to be elevated sea states, leading to coastal flooding especially around Galway Bay and other exposed west coast locations. Temperatures may vary with passing milder sectors in the storm, in the range of 7 to 12 C. Rain is not likely to be very heavy but some squally showers are likely with locally intense rainfalls.

MONDAY will continue very windy (westerly 70 to 120 km/hr) and it will be considerably colder with the squally showers likely to become increasingly wintry over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. Temperatures will be steady in the range 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will also be windy and cold with passing wintry showers, temperatures in the range 3 to 6 C.

WEDNESDAY holds some uncertainty with the risk of another interval of stronger winds, temperatures coming back up a little to 8 C.

The OUTLOOK still contains some risk of further strong wind events around Friday and even beyond that although models in general are slowly easing off the stormy theme with a rising jet stream taking the deeper depressions further north. Whether that proves true or not remains to be seen.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with light snow and highs near -3 C.

Saturday, 8 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... After some sunny intervals this morning, increasing cloud and stronger south to southwest winds developing, occasional light rain will be followed late afternoon and evening by intervals of heavier rainfall. Winds will peak at about 70 to 110 km/hr this evening in most areas with 10 to 15 mm rainfalls and highs of 10 to 12 C by late afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Staying quite windy and becoming stormy in some western counties towards dawn, southwest winds increasing to 80 to 120 km/hr there. Otherwise about 60 to 90 km/hr for most other regions. Occasional rain will continue with some thunder possible. Lows 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Very windy in most places, especially the west and south coasts with southwest winds of 80 to 130 km/hr there. More generally winds will be in the 70 to 110 km/hr range. Some coastal flooding possible on both west and south coasts, especially around high tides. Some further thundery rain likely for the morning hours, trending more to scattered squally showers later. Temperatures steady in the 8 to 10 C range.

MONDAY ... Continued very windy (westerly 80 to 120 km/hr) and becoming considerably colder with the squally showers increasingly mixed then wintry, some heavy falls of snow possible on higher terrain (5 to 15 cm could accumulate on hills). At lower elevations, a mix of hail, rain and sleet showers likely. Temperatures will be slowly falling most of the day to reach 1 to 3 C by afternoon and evening.

TUESDAY ... Windy and cold with further wintry showers likely, and additional snowfall on some higher terrain. Winds west to northwest about 70 to 110 km/hr, temperatures steady in the range of 1 to 4 C.

WEDNESDAY ... After a brief clearing and moderation of the winds around Wednesday morning, then becoming very windy again with another onslaught of rain with peak gusts possibly back to 120 km/hr. Temperatures recovering to about 8 C in the stormy conditions.

THURSDAY ... Windy and colder with mixed wintry showers, highs near 5 C.

FRIDAY could produce yet another windy and wet day.

The further outlook continues rather unsettled but perhaps with a trend to less blustery conditions and rather mild during the week following (15 to 21 Feb).

My local weather on Friday was misty with some light snow and freezing drizzle, followed by a brief clearing and then more snow by this evening with recent new accumulations of about 15 cms. The strong low that is to become storm "Ciara" is crossing Newfoundland at this time (967 mbs) and will be racing east-north-east all day to reach a point about 200 miles north of Donegal Bay by mid-day Sunday when it is expected to be around 950 mbs or lower. Although with many storms that far north the strongest winds stay off to the north of Ireland, in this case the strong winds will be more concentrated in a zone much further south than the low itself, and there is still some room for further development as upper air soundings in eastern Canada (taken around midnight) indicate very strong winds aloft even at lower levels of the jet stream. Keeping a very close eye on this one as the situation appears to have potential to "over-perform." Therefore an update is quite possible later today. Even without that extra intensity, this will be a significant event in part due to the long duration of the strong winds and also with the wintry situation in later stages.

Monday, 10 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall (including some snow) will average near normal amounts (of precipitation).
-- Sunshine will average near normal also.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy and cold with passing wintry showers. These will be frequently snow on higher ground and a mixture of all types of precipitation (rain, hail, sleet, ice pellets, snow) at lower elevations. Some will have a bit of thunder associated. Winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr will become gusty near showers, and may increase slightly to 80-120 km/hr peak gusts later. Highs only 2 to 5 C. There will be a continuing risk of coastal flooding around high tides.

TONIGHT will continue windy and very cold with the mix of showers becoming mostly snow except for some places near sea level that will continue to see mixed showers. Accumulations of 3 to 7 cm are possible on higher ground and 1 to 3 cm closer to sea level in some inland areas mostly. Winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr with some higher gusts. Lows -1 to +1 C.

TUESDAY will be windy and very cold with widespread snow showers in the morning, becoming more mixed again by afternoon. Some accumulations are possible in many parts of the country although at lower elevations these will tend to melt fairly quickly. Winds west to northwest 70 to 110 km/hr and highs 3 to 7 C. Some slight moderation is likely in the strong winds by afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY will start out bright and quite cold with scattered frosts, morning lows -3 to +1 C. Increasing cloud will be followed by sleet and rain, some snow on hills in Ulster. Temperatures will recover to about 8 C in the south but will remain 3 to 5 C further north. Winds will become moderate southwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr.

THURSDAY morning the rain-sleet-snow bands will move further east and the winds will swing back into the west to northwest, allowing colder air to return to all areas with mixed wintry showers returning to the south and central regions (having not let up further north). Morning lows 3 to 6 C then temperatures steady later in the daytime hours, winds increasing to west-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

FRIDAY will become much milder for a few hours with strong southwest winds and heavy rains becoming squally showers with possible thunderstorms, then windy and turning colder in stages. After about 10-15 mm rain, some mixed wintry showers will return to the forecast by later in the day as temperatures peak near 10 C with the front then fall off to 4-5 C later.

The OUTLOOK for next weekend is rather stormy too with yet another intense low taking aim on Ireland. There is some chance this one will go far enough north to avoid a severe windstorm but that more severe outcome is another possibility we are monitoring carefully.

My local weather has been rather calm and cloudy with temperatures a little below freezing most of the time, foggy at night but with some clearing in the daytime. Snow cover here had been depleted to about 25 cm but is back up to about 35 cm now.

Wednesday, 12 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal (highs near 9 C and lows near 3 C about the current average).
-- Rainfall will average near normal values (20-25 mm a week is average).
-- Sunshine will average 80% of normal, meaning closer to 2 than the usual 2.5 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be less windy and for the south and east, largely dry while the north and west see sporadic outbreaks of light sleety rain or wet snow on some hills. Highs will reach about 7 to 9 C in the south, 5 to 7 C elsewhere.

TONIGHT will become quite windy for a while near the south coast, with a spell of heavy rain (5-10 mm an hour for a few hours). Winds will increase to southerly 50 to 80 km/hr near the south coast, but only 30 to 50 km/hr southeast or variable elsewhere. As the rain moves further north and east, it may turn to sleet or even snow on some hills. Temperatures will level off around 5 to 7 C in the south, but closer to freezing further north.

THURSDAY will see the departure of the overnight mixed bag of precipitation by mid-day, then it will turn rather cold and breezy (west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr) with passing showers, some wintry on higher terrain. Highs will be near 8 C in the south, 4 to 6 C for most other regions.

FRIDAY morning will bring a brief but rather intense frontal passage with heavy rain for a time, and strong south to southwest winds peaking at about 80-110 km/hr, probably around the morning commute, then somewhat colder air will push in from the west and bring partly cloudy skies, still quite windy (50 to 80 km/hr) and passing showers that will become wintry in the north at times. Temperatures will peak at 10 to 12 degrees with the frontal passage, then edge down to 6 C or so by afternoon.

SATURDAY will become very windy at times as a new storm ("Dennis") approaches the region. Winds southwest 70 to 110 km/hr, some rain at times, possibly becoming heavy in the north and west, and temperatures steady around 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY will be very windy too with the strongest part of storm "Dennis" just off to the northwest, but some coastal regions could see gusts as high as 120 km/hr from the southwest to west. It will also be quite cold and some of the squally showers involved in this storm could turn wintry on higher ground. Temperatures will fall off to around 4 C and it will feel very cold in the strong winds.

The OUTLOOK for the rest of next week is for a gradual moderation as storm Dennis slowly decays into a less active disturbance, and higher pressure gradually builds in around mid-week. Temperatures will start out rather cold and turn somewhat milder for a time. However, there are indications that colder spells will return fairly often going towards the end of February.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast for the morning then sunny at times mid-day, back to cloud cover by sunset. Temperatures are fairly moderate by our standards (-2 to +1 C). There was an interval of light snow that left about 1-2 cm early this evening.

Friday, 14 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average about 0.5 to 1.0 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be 25% above normal in parts of the west, closer to average further east.
-- Sunshine will only be about half of the normal mid-February averages.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Rather windy (southwest 50-80 km/hr) with outbreaks of rain, generally rather light with 3-7 mm expected. Partial clearing will develop around mid-day with the winds easing slightly this afternoon (to 40-70 km/hr). Highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and mild with occasional light rain, winds southerly 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 5 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy with rain becoming heavier, especially over western counties where 20-40 mm amounts are expected (about 10-20 mm further east). Winds increasing to southerly 70 to 110 km/hr. Highs 10 to 12 C. Rain may be particularly heavy in parts of Kerry which could see local flooding, also Connemara and higher parts of Mayo could see isolated flooding.

SUNDAY ... Very windy, especially near north and west coasts, where westerly gales of 80 to 120 km/hr are likely from storm "Dennis" moving past towards western Scotland. Colder with passing squally showers, some with hail or sleet, snow possible on hills in the north. Temperatures steady 4 to 6 C but feeling colder due to the strong winds. Current indications are that further south, the strong winds will be blustery but not quite as severe (70 to 110 km/hr).

MONDAY ... Continued rather windy and cold with passing wintry showers, snow only likely on higher ground but mixed forms of precipitation can be expected elsewhere. Temperatures steady 4 to 6 C. Winds westerly 70 to 100 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Slow moderation of the strong winds and cold will set in, the main change to the weather will be a less biting cold wind (westerly 40 to 70 km/hr) and a slight increase in temperatures to 7 or 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... The rest of the week looks milder with moderate southwest winds returning and some rain at times. The latter stages of February look like being a blend of mild spells and brief colder intervals with near normal amounts of rainfall.

My local weather was overcast with light snow and temperatures down a bit from recent days, -2 C.

Sunday, 16 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


FORECASTS (Trends will return after Dennis)

TODAY will be very windy with passing squally showers, winds westerly 70 to 110 km/hr for most, but 80 to 130 km/hr in some exposed coastal locations. The passing showers will be largely rain and hail near sea level, and a wintry mix on higher ground. All could be accompanied by some thunder and strong wind gusts. Temperatures will remain steady in the 5 to 8 C range (dropping at times on higher ground when snow is lying).

TONIGHT will continue very windy and showery, with strong to severe gusts at times in the north. There may be a slight moderation of conditions further south. Lows 2 to 5 C.

MONDAY will also be windy although for most areas away from exposed coasts, it may seem a bit less stormy, with passing showers continuing to bring a variety of precipitation, some snow on higher slopes. Temperatures will reach highs of only 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will continue rather breezy but more moderate, with occasional showers, and winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 1 C and highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will turn a bit milder with rain and southwest winds of 40 to 70 km/hr, some higher gusts likely in western counties. Lows will be around 5 C and highs 10 or 11 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will also be quite breezy with temperatures steady in the 7 to 9 C range, some rain at times.

The OUTLOOK for next weekend and the following week is for rather mild weather most of the time, possibly a few brief colder intervals lasting less than a full day as the flow continues rather strong from a westerly direction. In general, it looks a bit less intense than this mid-month spell and there may be a hint of spring in parts of the south and east as temperatures during milder days may reach 12 to 14 C.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast and rather foggy with a bit of wet snow leaving a slight accumulation. The high was around -1 C.

Tuesday, 18 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 50% above normal in western counties, closer to average values further east.
-- Sunshine will average a little below or near normal (at this point, 2.5 hours a day).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather windy and cold with passing showers, sometimes briefly heavy, although isolated in their extent. Some hail or thunder is possible with those. More moderate winds of 40 to 70 km/hr from the west. Highs 7 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will start out cold and dry in some eastern counties, overcast further west, with rain developing. Lows 2 to 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will become quite windy again, southwest 60 to 90 km/hr, and some higher gusts near Atlantic coasts. Rain will become persistent and somewhat heavier by afternoon and evening. Highs 10 to 12 C. About 20 to 30 mm of rain likely in west, 10 mm east.

THURSDAY will turn somewhat colder with brisk westerly winds, 50 to 80 km/hr, and passing showers. Morning lows near 5 C and afternoon highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY will be windy and mild with rain, once again rather heavy in western counties (another 20-30 mm possible). Moderate to strong southwest winds 60 to 90 km/hr. Highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy and unsettled with showers and highs near 10 C.

SUNDAY will turn windy again with rain at times, still some threat of a strong wind event although guidance mostly on the "moderate" side with potential for another 10 to 20 mm rainfall. Highs 10 to 12 C.

The outlook for next week is for more of the same, every two or three days another blustery and wet frontal system with some less stormy conditions between their times of arrival. Temperatures will be in the same general range but with the advancing season could be one or two degrees higher than this week.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy with passing snow showers leaving slight dustings, and some pleasant intervals of sunshine at times revealing snow covered mountain peaks in the region. There is apparently 2 to 2.5 metres of snow in the back country around here, in town it is closer to 50-75 cms where undisturbed, but they have a system here for plowing the streets that includes plowing the sidewalks and ground between so you tend to forget how much snow is lying around in general. That sounds like a lot of snow but I don't think it's even up to the long-term average for these parts.

Thursday, 20 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, towards the end of the week it will be turning colder.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in the west, to slightly below normal in the east.
-- Sunshine will average close to the seasonal normal of 2.5 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and colder with passing showers becoming wintry on some higher ground in the north. Winds westerly about 50 to 80 km/hr, and highs 6 to 8 C.

TONIGHT will be dry at first, then rain will develop from west to east. Continued quite breezy, southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Temperatures will fall a bit in eastern counties before midnight then edge back up, while rising steadily in western counties, in the range of 5 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will be windy and mild with some intervals of rather heavy rainfall likely at least in western counties, winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr and 15 to 25 mm rain west, 10 to 15 mm east. Highs 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will become somewhat colder again with brisk westerly winds and passing showers, once again, some threat of wintry mixtures on higher ground. Morning lows near 4 C and afternoon highs 6 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will start out rather tranquil with partly cloudy skies and just moderate breezes. By evening it will be more unsettled with rain developing, and moderate to strong southwest winds overnight into early Monday. Highs both days will be around 10 C. The winds will become quite gusty over northern counties but the effects of this passing disturbance may be somewhat restricted to north and northwest coastal areas.

The OUTLOOK for next week is for colder weather to develop in stages, at least for the middle portion of the week, daytime temperatures may fall back as low as 5 or 6 C, then a slight warming trend will develop towards the weekend. On Saturday (29th Feb) there may be stronger winds then back into the same mixture of cool and milder days for early March.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny but colder than recent days with highs only around -6 C, so a hard freeze of recently formed slush in shaded spots, but the sun is strong enough now to produce some snowmelt even at this temperature. If you do get any clear evenings the planet Venus has become quite prominent in the western sky after sunset. Just a heads up also that Jupiter and Saturn will be closing in on their 20-year period of conjunctions this summer, something you'll no doubt be seeing eventually in June or July at least. Their closest (apparent) approach is around September and October. These planets can be seen in the morning sky before sunrise at this point, and won't be visible in evening or even midnight skies until late May or early June.

Saturday, 22 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Feb 2020

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, and a significant portion may be snow in parts of the north.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will turn colder with a few passing showers, moderate westerly winds and temperatures steady 5 to 8 C. Towards evening it will become overcast with outbreaks of rain or sleet on higher terrain, temperatures then around 3 C.

TONIGHT will see a mixture of rain, sleet and snow moving across central and northern areas. It is likely to be mostly rain at lower elevations and in the south generally, mixed precipitation in some central counties and snow on some northern hills. Temperatures will be 2 to 4 C.

SUNDAY will see some of this mixed wintry precipitation continuing at times across north Connacht and Ulster, possibly becoming a heavy wet snowfall towards evening, as rain moves into the south and west. Some southeastern counties will have a generally dry day until this later rain arrives there. Highs only about 3 to 6 C in the north, and 7 to 10 C in the south.

SUNDAY NIGHT and MONDAY morning there will be an interval of strong winds and squally showers, with any snow being pushed off towards east Ulster later in the night, with winds peaking around sunrise Monday at southwest 70 to 110 km/hr. Temperatures will rise briefly to the 8 to 10 C range before dropping back on Monday.

MONDAY will then turn quite cold again with strong westerly winds and a return to mixed wintry precipitation by afternoon and evening as temperatures fall to around 3-5 C.

TUESDAY will be cold and windy with passing showers, most of them wintry except at some coastal locations where rain and hail are more likely. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr will add a chill to temperatures around 5 C.

WEDNESDAY will turn somewhat milder and an interval of rain will develop later in the day, possibly preceded by sleet in parts of the north. Temperatures will come back up to around 8 to 10 C by evening.

The OUTLOOK beyond Wednesday is generally cold and unsettled. As the guidance is far from unified on details, I can say that there is some chance of a wintry spell around the first of March especially if some guidance is correct and the storm track drops far enough south to allow east winds to develop. This is not universally supported in all guidance but the alternative seems to be only marginally warmer in more of a cold westerly flow with disturbances capable of producing some snow in either outlook. Also not too certain yet whether this is to be a brief interruption in the generally mild winter pattern or a longer lasting change to affect a longer stretch of March.

My local weather on Friday was once again sunny with a bit of higher cloud, and temperatures near freezing at the peak of the daytime warmth, after morning lows below -10 C.

Monday, 24 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 24 Feb to 1 Mar 2020

-- Temperatures will be 2 to 3 deg below normal values (which are close to 10 C for maxima now, and 2 C overnight).
-- Rainfall will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values. Much of that will occur on Friday. Some will fall as sleet or snow.
-- Sunshine will be close to average for late February (closing in on three hours a day now).


TODAY ... Windy this morning with temperatures briefly peaking at 10 to 12 C (closer to 5 C in Ulster), but cold air will quickly move in before mid-day and drop those readings back down to about 5 C by this afternoon. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr will veer to westerly with some higher gusts near Atlantic coasts. Any snow ongoing in north/east Ulster will change to rain then back to wintry showers by mid-day. Any rain still falling in the south and east will end soon, with a few sunny intervals, then mixed wintry showers will develop across western counties feeding across the country although tending to break up considerably before reaching the east coast.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, breezy and very cold with a few passing wintry showers, risk of 1-3 cm snowfall accumulations on some higher terrain. Lows 0 to 3 C. Winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Breezy and very cold with a mixture of bright spells and passing wintry showers. Some heavy snow showers could develop on higher ground in Connacht, west Ulster, and parts of Munster. Highs only 3 to 7 C, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr making it feel colder (around -3 C wind chill values).

WEDNESDAY ... Not as windy, but continued quite cold with more isolated wintry showers and longer sunny intervals. Morning lows -3 to +1 C and afternoon highs 4 to 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Isolated outbreaks of sleet or wet snow, but generally a rather dry day for most with cloudy skies and a few breaks, lows around -1 C and highs around 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Sleet or wet snow possible, cold rain closer to sea level, temperatures only struggling to reach 3 to 6 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, winds turning northerly 50 to 80 km/hr by afternoon, highs only 4 to 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continued quite cold with ongoing wintry showers and risk of some accumulations of snow, details not very reliable yet with various scenarios for weak low pressure systems to interact with these colder temperatures. Nothing major is expected along the lines of the events of this time two years ago, but there could be a wintry chill for about a week with a milder trend setting in by the second week of March.

My local weather on Sunday brought 10-15 cm of snow during the morning to mid-day hours, and some brighter intervals by afternoon, with temperatures a bit below freezing.

Wednesday, 26 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 26 Feb to 3 Mar 2020

-- Temperatures will average 2 or 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal, possibly a little above in some eastern counties.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue quite cold with the strong westerly winds gradually dying out by afternoon and evening. This will tend to cut off the flow of mixed wintry showers leading to longer dry intervals later in the day, after some further risk of snow or hail coverings in a few spots this morning. Highs only reaching 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT an area of sleety light rain will brush the southern counties and this could fall as wet snow on some hills in the south, especially towards the pre-dawn hours. A separate area of scattered wintry showers will continue to affect parts of Ulster. In between, overcast with a few clear breaks, and cold. Lows near -2 C in the clearer central counties and +2 C near coasts.

THURSDAY will become rather windy and cold again with mixed wintry showers, highs near 7 C and moderate northwest winds backing to westerly 40 to 70 km/hr.

FRIDAY will turn somewhat milder with outbreaks of light rain more persistent in the south, highs reaching 9 or 10 C except for Ulster which may remain closer to 5 or 6 C.

SATURDAY 29th (leap year day) has the interest of forecasters but guidance is rather mixed, there could be some very strong westerly winds especially for Connacht, but other sources are showing a more moderate outcome, and also, it will be cold enough once again for the potential of snow showers to become somewhat more prevalent, however, it remains a rather marginal situation that might go either way -- we should be able to refine this closer to the time. For now, would expect at least moderately strong westerly winds of 50 to 80 km/hr, possibly stronger, and highs 3 to 6 C with mixed wintry showers but also some longer dry intervals for south and east. It is likely to become bitterly cold overnight into Sunday morning (lows near -3 C).

SUNDAY the first of March, bright but cold and somewhat showery again by afternoon with temperatures near 5 or 6 C, so a mixture of rain, hail and sleet showers expected.

The OUTLOOK for early March is for this pattern to continue to ebb and flow between colder days with wintry showers, and intervening slightly milder days still not much milder than average at any point, with the current timing of squally shower-laden frontal waves being something like Tuesday (3rd) and again Friday (6th). The timing is not too certain but the general idea of alternating conditions is probably quite likely.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with highs near -1 C, with some light snow at times this evening. They are getting ready for a heavy snowfall in parts of Ontario, Quebec, northern Vermont-New Hampshire, and Maine with rain and temperatures around 10 C along the coast further south in the large cities of the U.S. northeast. Sleety mixed falls are expected further inland to the southeast of the snowfall zone. Ottawa could see as much as 35 cm of snow, Montreal about 25 cm.

Friday, 28 February, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


(Trends will return after storm Jorge)

Storm watch -- Potential is growing for a severe windstorm in western counties generally on Saturday from about 0600h to late in the day. Southwest veering to westerly winds may be as strong as 100 to 140 km/hr at the peak of the storm (some guidance even suggests stronger gusts) and while an orange alert is already in place things appear to be headed more for the red alert category. There will be various times when different parts of the west coast are experiencing their strongest winds and there is no one location that is at greater risk than others for wind damage potential, or coastal flooding from elevated seas, but the areas from Westport south to Kerry may be at somewhat greater risk as the winds closer to the centre (expected to track quite close to land compared to some of these Atlantic storms) are not quite as strong. A second interval of strong winds will develop when a secondary low rotates around the primary on Saturday evening and tightens the already strong gradient. Otherwise, the various elements of the winter season Atlantic storm are all in place, intervals of significant rain which would not be that much of a concern except for the previous month's large totals having soaked the ground especially in the west, some wintry showers in bands and a much colder feel than is sometimes encountered in windstorms as temperatures will be only in the 3 to 6 C range.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see further outbreaks of rain, 10 to 20 mm the general range, with a milder high near 11 C and moderate southerly winds developing, 40 to 70 km/hr.

TONIGHT will become windy and squally with the passage of a strong cold front running out ahead of storm "Jorge" -- temperatures will slowly fall after midnight and the passage of this front with a few thunderstorms possible, winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr with some higher gusts at times. Temperatures near 10 C to midnight then falling to about 6 C by morning (8 C south coast).

SATURDAY brings the full force of storm "Jorge" over the western counties with southwest to west winds increasing to 80-120 km/hr in many places and 100-150 km/hr in a few well exposed locations. Some wind damage may occur even in areas well used to strong winds. Also some coastal flooding may develop, the one good feature is that we are between tidal peaks (full moon not until March 9th) but this means that the threat will be constant rather than timed by high tides. Lines of squally showers will develop rotating around the centre of the low (expected to be close to Belmullet around mid-day and Malin Head in north Donegal by early evening). Strongest winds will be felt from Westport south through Galway, Clare into Kerry and some exposed parts of Cork and Limerick. Also the terrain favours a band of strong winds making an inland push through east Galway into Roscommon and south Ulster. While it will also be very windy elsewhere, speeds will be 70 to 110 km/hr for most (yellow alert conditions) with a few isolated gusts to 120 km/hr. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a few breaks appearing between the more persistent bands of squally showers. These will become increasingly wintry in nature by later in the day and at first on higher terrain, but the wintry aspects will be more confined to late overnight and into Sunday morning. Temperatures will be steady 3 to 6 C for most, near 7 or 8 C in some coastal areas and 2 or 3 over higher ground.

SATURDAY NIGHT will remain very windy for a time. The stronger winds will tend to be pulled back north by the retreating low and its secondary partner once they rotate around into Scotland. This will make the overnight hours windier for parts of Ulster than earlier in the day there, while sustaining strong winds in Connacht and allowing them to ease slightly in west Munster. Eventually by late overnight winds will subside to more moderate levels in general. Overnight lows near 1 or 2 C will feel much colder in winds still around 60 to 100 km/hr. Bands of showers will become increasingly wintry with snow potential spreading down from higher slopes to more intermediate elevations 100 to 250 metres.

SUNDAY will be quite windy and cold with passing wintry showers, and otherwise a mixture of cloud and sunshine, highs 5 to 8 C. Winds will be west-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr backing to southwest at times.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will see some potential for sleet or wet snow in parts of the south with a passing disturbance trailing behind Jorge from origins tonight in the eastern Canada region. Some areas further north may remain drier with some intervals of strong winds and isolated bands of wintry showers. Highs both days around 5 to 7 C. Slight frosts are likely well inland at night.

The OUTLOOK beyond that is rather uncertain. There are some signs of a slight warming trend to follow until about Sunday 8th then another west to northwest windy and unsettled interval. Longer range there are some signs of more settled drier weather which would be welcome at any temperature but it could be cold at first then milder as higher pressure retreats further south.

My local weather started out sunny and mild and ended up cloudy with a high near 8 C. We are just starting to see first signs of snow melt at our elevation but lower down in the Columbia valley most of the earlier snow pack has evaporated except in shady spots, with bare ground here and there.

Watch for updates on Jorge and follow the progress of discussions in the dedicated storm thread. The storm is just entering its explosive development phase (if model guidance is correct) out around 25 deg longitude and due west of Kerry at this point, heading northeast then east towards Belmullet. Central pressure is now about 975 mbs and is forecast to reach 948 mbs by mid-day Saturday.

Sunday, 1 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of March 1 to 7, 2020

-- Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will be near or slightly above normal values.

OUTLOOK for March 2020

The month will begin to transition away from the recent pattern of very wet and frequently windy weather, to something a bit more tolerable by middle to end of the month, but the first week to ten days will continue about like February, with perhaps a little less rainfall. Then it should begin to change to a more frequently dry and at times mild regime. Overall, the month should finish up a little above normal in temperature and near to slightly below average for rainfall.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue rather windy and cold with passing showers, some of them wintry. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT will bring some clear intervals but a few more brief wintry showers are possible too. Lows 1 to 3 C.

MONDAY will be breezy and still rather cool with occasional showers, one or two becoming wintry mainly on hills. Highs 6 to 9 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, possibly a brief interval of sleet or cold rain near the south coast, and morning lows near -1 C, afternoon highs near 8 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue partly cloudy with a few showers and rather breezy, highs near 8 C.

From about Friday to Sunday, it will be rather windy again with somewhat milder temperatures around 10 to 12 C, occasional rain, and winds southwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr.

My local weather on "leap year day" was partly cloudy with passing snow showers. Temperatures in the sunny spells between those showers reached about 5 C, then would drop to about -1 C when the snow was falling. I would say it was a much weaker version of the weather in parts of Ireland with just a light westerly breeze.

Tuesday, 3 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland


Trends for the week of 3 to 9 March 2020

-- Temperatures will average near normal with a generally increasing trend later in the week.
-- Rainfall will average about half of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will continue rather breezy and cool with a few more showers, some with hail or hill snow, but these will tend to die out as winds drop to less gusty by this afternoon. Highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will remain partly cloudy with some clear intervals and frost inland, increasing cloudiness across Munster after midnight. Lows will drop to the range of -2 to +2 C.

WEDNESDAY will see some light rain across parts of the south and central counties, with just isolated showers further north. This rain could be sleety and turn to wet snow on some higher terrain. It will be quite cold as a result of the cloud so any places further north that get a few sunny intervals could reach 7 or 8 C locally, but otherwise highs about 4 or 5 C.

THURSDAY will see the last of the sleety rain or wet snow moving away by about sunrise, then partial clearing will follow, with moderate westerly winds returning, and a few showers, highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY will be rather windy and cool with outbreaks of light rain, becoming showery later. Highs near 7 C.

The weekend is looking milder with southwest winds developing, some rain at times, highs 11 to 13 C. Turning a bit colder Sunday afternoon with readings near 10 C dropping to about 5 C later.

There may be one colder day around Monday but then another milder spell should develop for the following mid-week period.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy with a bit of sunshine at times, highs near 8 C. It is starting to feel a bit like spring with snow piles slowly settling rather than melting, although there is a bit of runoff now. Probably still pretty good ski-ing conditions a bit higher up in the local alpine areas.

Thursday, 5 March, 2020

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 March 2020

-- Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal values (highs near 10 C, lows near 3 C).
-- Rainfall will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal (which is 20 mm a week in most places).
-- Sunshine will be near average (which is 2.5 to 3.0 hours a day now)


TODAY will see any frost slowly clearing, with sunny intervals and a few isolated showers in the west mainly. It will remain a bit colder than average today with highs near 8 C. Some cloud and rain will move into the west during the late afternoon.

TONIGHT a rather patchy band of rain will move across the country with some sleet on higher ground. Lows will reach about 2 or 3 C.

FRIDAY will become breezy from the northwest, then those cold winds will tend to die out in the afternoon. A few showers or intervals of light rain will accompany the wind and cloud in the morning, and it may clear up slightly for part of the afternoon. Highs near 8 C.

SATURDAY will be breezy to windy and quite mild, with rain arriving in the west by mid-day, spreading at times further east. Winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr. Highs 11 to 14 C.

SUNDAY will be showery and perhaps rather blustery in the morning especially as a cold front passes. Temperatures will be steady around 7 or 8 C. Some clearing may develop around mid-day but isolated showers will continue.

MONDAY will turn quite mild again, with rain more in the north for most of the day. Highs will reach 12 to 15 C.

The outlook is for the temperatures to decline again into the 7 to 10 C range by mid-week, with occasional showers, and it may turn very chilly for about two days later in the week, possibly as cold as 3 to 6 C in the daytime. That likely won't persist too long before a warming trend sets in towards mid-month. From the pattern developing, we may finally see some easterly winds at times, whether that means a wintry turn or just dry and mild remains to be seen because the guidance is having some trouble really focusing in on the details with a lot of flip-flopping of guidance from one moment to the next.

My local weather started out with some noisy sleet showers in the early morning, and once it got to be daylight we could see the ground was covered in ice pellets. Then it cleared up for most of the day and was rather cold compared to previous days, only around 3 C. Still, I think the winter is fading away, although no doubt it has one last surprise in store for us.