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Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Some early indications of possibly being very wet for a time on Fri also.
Rough idea of totals for the week , spot flooding an issue as the week goes on, the land in the SW / S and SE becoming quite wet if not saturated by the weekend perhaps, lots of run off from high ground.
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Some big rain totals coming in by Fri evening . A lot more rain on top of the 81.6mm mickger844posts recorded in the last 3 days in Waterford . A possible 50 or 60 mm more on the way it would seem according to the ECM.
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Looking very windy on coasts and windy overland on Fri as the depression deepens close to Ireland on the latest runs. As the models get to grips with the set up they have been increasing the wind speeds a bit over the last few runs. All now showing similar track and wind strengths. Probably still a bit under for being a named storm but wouldn't take much more additional wind speed to get a name.. Would have an impact in the UK also. Not sure which met office names the next one.
Currently looking like gusts up to 110 km/h on coasts , with some exposed headlands getting up to 120 km/h. Gusting 80 to 100 km/h overland, with a few gusts to 110 possible in higher exposed ground.
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The charts showing a bit less rain Fri than previous runs .The closer the depression gets to Ireland keeping the heaviest rain off the E coast and closer to and over the UK.
Looking like between 10 and 30 mm, and much of it falling in a few hours.
Projected Precipitation Totals up until +120 hrs.
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I think the winds haven't increased over the last few runs for Fri. Maybe ever so slightly down a bit in general, more so over land but still very windy on coasts. What does seem to be showing up is very strong winds onto the S , SE and moving to E and NE coasts later from S and SSE winds backing to the SW later.
Atm IMO looking like 90 -100km/h on coasts in general, could gust to 110 on S, SE , E and NE coasts. Overland could gust 80 - 90km/h approx but for a short time as the weather moves through quickly ( maybe slightly higher in the SE and E ) . Looks like quite heavy rain passing through quickly also.
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The models haven't deviated much over the last few runs except the ECM showing slightly lower top wind speeds in general but more widespread gusting 80 to 90 km/h across the country. Would take note that the models have been showing the SE / E getting clipped by very strong winds for a time especially Wexford which may get the highest wind speeds. Tomorrow is more about the combination of strong winds and heavy rain leading to difficult conditions.
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Slow moving Cold front up along Atlantic coasts tonight and tomorrow bringing up to 30mm in places , slowly moving E and dissipating as it moves inland. Breezy and relatively mild more E, cooler under the rain on the Western half of the country. Spot flooding possible in places.
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Winds turning from a SE direction more E'ly as we move into next week introducing a colder airmass from Europe. Looks largely dry until around Tues when showers will possibly make an appearance more so in the E / SE. Winds will freshen for the first few days of the week , more so on E coast's . Windchill will be a factor the early days of next week.
Top Temps
Mon 7 to 9C generally, bit higher near coasts coasts
Tues 6 to 8C
Frosts possible in a few sheltered places at night Mon and Tues but breeze will probably prevent freezing for most.
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With the cold airmass comes breezy conditions and windy along NE, E , SE, S coasts. Looks probably too windy at night for widespread frosts up to Weds next , maybe in some sheltered spots. Little precipitation until Tues /Weds probably more so in the E, SE and some moving inland. Little in the way of wintry showers showing up at present up to Weds apart from maybe sleety mix on the highest terrain I think. Going to feel very cold in the wind.
Not too often we see the Jet coming from an easterly direction.
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Unusual enough to see convergence lines on the charts like in the Bracknell T+60 one. Lots of instability, could be very damp on eastern facing coastal areas next week.
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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The cooler airmass for the week coming. Feeling cold in the stiff breeze and showers along the Eastern coasts especially from Tues. The W doing best escaping most of the showers. Met Eireann mentions possible hail showers on Weds, the passage of an upper Low aiding convection, could have some heavy cold showers. Certainly a big departure from the recent mild weather.
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Uncertain on how next Tues and Weds pans out . In general looks windy and very wet at times in places , very mild for a time. Possibility of some very windy weather but this won't get resolved for a couple of days yet as the models come to terms with the complex weather unfolding namely areas of deepening LP, wave depressions being steered by the jet.
Timing , strength and track will be fine tuning for a couple of days yet at the least. At this stage looking windy Tues Evening / night and Weds morning and could be quite windy during Weds . Rain heavy at times especially in the SW, S and W but this all depends on track.
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A direct hit from ICON 12Z. Still a spread on track amongst the models which are still chopping and changing, ARPEGE keeps strongest winds up along the W coast, GFS strongest off the E coast , ECM out soon will be interesting. In general all showing very strong winds.
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This discussion has been closed.
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