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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 2 September, 2009
    _____________________________


    I am seeing some positive signs too, for one thing remnants of Danny look fairly weak, and then all through next week there are indications of higher pressure and the jet stream lifting north. I hope this all stays on course for you as you've had a surplus of rainfall generally 25-75 % above normal in August alone.

    TODAY the country will be dealing with the remnants of Danny and these look only moderately wet (10-15 mms) with occasional light rain and not very strong winds either as most of the circulation that's left is heading south more towards Cornwall and Devon. So expect cloudy skies, occasional light rain mostly, and winds slowly veering from south to west, not very strong in most locations (10-20 mph), and highs held down to about 14-16 C.

    TONIGHT should be rather breezy and cool with further showers, 2-5 mms more rain for most, and lows of about 7 C.

    THURSDAY will be cloudy with some brief sunny intervals, rather gusty west to northwest winds, and either showers or periods of light rain and drizzle leading to perhaps a further 2-5 mms. Highs should be around 16 C. Winds will pick up to about WNW 25-35 mph.

    FRIDAY will be similar to the above, perhaps slightly more by way of sunny intervals and less by way of showers, but generally the same variables with a further 1-3 mms of rain for most locations. Highs will be near 16 C after lows of about 7 or 8 C.

    SATURDAY is looking very much like last Saturday, a cloudy day with some sunny breaks, and just a touch of light rain mostly in the west, with highs of about 17-18 C. Winds will be moderate from a westerly direction, backing to south late in the day.

    SUNDAY shows promise of turning quite warm, it's a fairly similar pattern to some moderately wet, humid days of the past month but the jet stream is trying to lift northwards and this could take most of the cloud and light rain into the far north, leaving southern counties dry if not overly sunny. With a southerly breeze, it should be fairly warm at 20-21 C inland, 18 C near the south coast.

    FROM MONDAY to TUESDAY a warm southerly flow will edge more westerly but high pressure will build in behind the warmer air this time, instead of a strong front, so this may be more of a drizzly light rain for a change at the time of frontal passage, and then it should become partly cloudy to sunny by Tuesday, so temperatures may fall off slightly but it will remain rather warm at 20-22 C on Monday, 18-19 C on Tuesday.

    LATER NEXT WEEK the indications are positive for some dry, warm weather with a bit of an easterly to southeasterly wind, the best direction for higher temperatures it would seem, with highs possibly into the 23-24 C range.

    My weather on Tuesday was mostly cloudy with light showers in the area, which I avoided by driving out of town, but at most there was 1-2 mms and we could use perhaps 15-25 mms to moisten the soil and the tinder-dry forests around these parts. You've probably seen some news footage of severe fires near Los Angeles well to our south, but we have some less intense ones on the go in western Canada as well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 81,133 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    redsunset wrote: »
    yep looks heavy around 3pm.as if donegal needs for rain!!! more landslides probable i guess

    ukprec.png
    I was right! The remnants of hurrican danny if im not mistaken?


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I think that map has to do with a system last week that followed a day or two behind "Bill" and brought the strong winds to the west coast.

    Today's rainfall now looks to be about 15-20 mms in the south, 8-15 mms central and possibly only 4-7 mms north, heaviest amounts likely to be somewhere between Waterford and Carlow (possibly 25 mms locally).

    Time for pleasant dreams of howling winter gales. :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,736 ✭✭✭ch750536


    Certainly had at least 25mm here so far today. Started at 9am not stopped, very heavy rain.

    Oh, just stopped.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Wednesday 3:30 p.m.
    _______________________

    The remnant low of Danny is now generating a heavy rainfall event across parts of south central Ireland as it tracks from current position just north of Cork towards Dublin or just south of the capital this evening. It seems to be entering a higher energy cycle for a while as it feeds off the warmer seas near Biscay and the Channel approaches.

    From radar and analogues, I am now concerned that this could lay down a swath of 25-50 mm rainfalls across some parts of already soaked counties in the path of this wave (the heaviest rain would fall just north of the low centre). This may include the Dublin region by this evening but is certainly likely to include parts of these counties -- Cork, Waterford, Laois, Carlow, Wexford, Wicklow, Kildare, Dublin.

    It is possible that this may bear some resemblance to "Charley" from 1986 and given the prior soaked state of the ground some rather serious flooding could develop.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,885 ✭✭✭✭Riskymove


    been raining heavily in Dublin City centre for last couple of hours


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Wednesday, 9:50 p.m.
    _______________________

    Looks like the heaviest rain was around Carlow as the band weakened gradually upon leaving eastern Ireland. What's left over now is much less intense drizzly rain on a northerly wind that will back to NW by morning, and this will be followed by dry intervals before the showers already onshore in western counties make it over to the east coast by morning. Not expecting much more rain now, 2-4 mms on average overnight.

    My weather report for today, morning cloud slowly giving way to warm sunshine with a scattering of alto-cumulus and quite hazy, 23 C at almost 2 p.m. local time here.

    Will return older if not wiser by 0500 to check on the prospects for some decent weather only days away now (of course it was always days away, the question being, how many days, rounded off to the nearest hundred?).

    Keep your fingers crossed, then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 3 September, 2009
    ____________________________

    Gradual improvements are on the way, or so it seems from the trend of the models. It will take about a week to lift the jet stream and then some higher pressure can build into the region.

    TODAY and FRIDAY will be breezy to windy at times, mainly from the west, and with some dry intervals in the east at first each day, followed by a buildup of clouds and outbreaks of showers that will be more frequent in the west, in some cases lasting through tonight as well. In general, highs will be close to 16 C and tonight's low around 8 C, with rainfalls about 2-4 mms per day on average, and some risk of hail or thunder especially in the northwest and southwest.

    THE WEEKEND is looking rather similar to last weekend, expect Saturday to be more cloudy than sunny, but fairly dry except for some light rain around western and northern coastal sections, sometimes breaking away to light showers elsewhere; winds will be moderate westerly, and highs near 18 C. Sunday looks warmer with considerable cloud, some intervals of rain likely but more to the west and north than elsewhere, and winds southerly 15-25 mph, highs near 21 C at best.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY features another warm, rather active frontal system that could bring another 15 mms of rain possibly, and highs to about 21-22 C, with strong S to SW winds developing. Although this sounds like the same old weather pattern, the jet stream will be lifting during this episode and the rain could be more drizzly and less showery and thus a bit lighter than in previous similar events.

    From WEDNESDAY onwards, higher pressure is likely to build in from the Atlantic and a larger daily temperature range will develop, from lows of 6-9 C to highs of 20-23 C, governed by light northerly winds at first that could become more east to southeast eventually.

    Let's hope this change in the weather comes about as evidently many parts of the country have suffered from excessive rainfalls and need a chance to dry out for a couple of weeks at least.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,551 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    according to some of the models the fine weather is only going to last a little over a week. still i suppose a weeks respite is not to be sniffed at.


  • Moderators Posts: 9,936 ✭✭✭LEIN


    according to some of the models the fine weather is only going to last a little over a week. still i suppose a weeks respite is not to be sniffed at.

    Wet and windy weather doesn't really bother me but a break from the norm of the past two months is well over due even if it is a week.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 4 September, 2009
    __________________________

    TODAY will continue quite blustery and cool with brief but sometimes heavy showers, more frequent in western counties. Winds will be westerly at about 20-30 mph, and highs in the range of 15 to 17 C. Most places will see about 2 to 4 mms of rain. There could be some thunder or hail with some of the showers.

    TONIGHT will bring some longer clear intervals and the winds will slowly drop off to westerly 10-20 mph, but showers may continue in some western counties. Lows will be around 7 to 9 C.

    SATURDAY will be rather cloudy for most regions, with the best chance for some longer sunny intervals in the southeast. The north and northwest could continue to see a few showers, and winds will be more moderate, backing to southwest 10-20 mph during the day. Highs will be near 17 C.

    SUNDAY will bring a period of moderate to heavy rain with some gusty southerly winds developing (30-40 mph at times near the south coast). There could be a few sunny intervals by afternoon, and highs will be around 18-20 C except possibly in Ulster (16 C).

    MONDAY will feature a period of warmer, dry weather in advance of a strong front arriving late Tuesday, and there could be some longer intervals of sunshine in the east, with light rain developing in the northwest. Highs will be about 21 C on average.

    TUESDAY will be warm and windy, with some risk of showers or thunderstorms developing late in the day especially in Connacht. The current indications show a very strong low moving past the northwest by Tuesday evening, but far enough offshore that the main effects will be over marine areas (where winds could be 50-60 knots around 15-20 W). Obviously this will have to be watched closely for any changes. At the moment, a mainly dry and warm day looks possible for most of Ireland, with moderate southerly winds becoming strong SW (30-45 mph) late in the day, and highs 21-24 C.

    WEDNESDAY will become considerably cooler and any morning cloud should dissipate to partly cloudy or sunny conditions. This will be the start of a lengthy dry spell with light northerly winds backing to east then southeast over the period of about a week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 5 September, 2009
    ____________________________

    TODAY will be rather cloudy but the sun may appear for a while in the southeastern counties; otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions except for some drizzly showers over western counties at times. Winds today will be much slacker than the past two days but still managing some 20-25 mph gusts from the west before backing to southerly late in the day. Highs should reach 17 or 18 C.

    TONIGHT will have some clear intervals to start, allowing temperatures to fall to about 8-10 C by midnight, then fog is likely to form as cloud moves in over the cooler air, and by morning there should be a heavy dew and some light rain falling in the west. Temperatures will tend to rise towards sunrise, to near 12-13 C.

    SUNDAY will feature some stronger southerly winds in the morning, with periods of rain, but there may be a drying trend by afternoon from west to east with a few glimpses of the sun, and highs of 18-19 C.

    MONDAY is looking fairly good at this point with a weak ridge overhead allowing for some hazy sunshine, although rain may not be too far away from the southwest coast by afternoon. Highs may touch 20 C in eastern and northern counties.

    TUESDAY at this point is still looking quite windy and rather warm with sunshine possible in the south and east but cloud and eventually showers in the west ahead of a very strong southerly gale that will develop over the near Atlantic (gusts to 50 knots on the west coast and 65 knots further west over the ocean). With all that, highs may reach 23-24 C away from the south coast which will have the strong onshore wind cooling temperatures to near 17 C. Any slight change in this situation with such a strong low could bring the storm force winds over western and northern counties during the afternoon and evening, so stay tuned on this ... the low blasts north towards Norway and is well clear of even Malin Head by sunrise in terms of strong winds overnight. Actually, the gale to storm force winds would subside very rapidly, but swells and waves on the west coast would probably take longer to settle down through Wednesday.

    WEDNESDAY and onwards, the models continue to promise a long interval of dry, seasonably warm weather under strong high pressure, with light winds, overnight fog and hazy sunshine in the daytime. Eventually (after several days) enough of an easterly gradient forms to suggest more low cloud and possibly drizzle than unbroken sunshine, but there would still be a prolonged dry spell which seems like good news all around.

    I think I may have neglected to mention my own weather for a couple of days now, but it was rather bland, partly cloudy with a few light showers each day Thursday-Friday with highs near 21 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Saturday, 6:30 p.m.
    ______________________

    The windstorm event for parts of western Ireland and the nearby Atlantic seems to be somewhat upgraded and moved forward to about 0300-1500 hours Tuesday on the latest guidance. Expect a strong southerly wind to develop on Monday night reaching speeds of about 40-60 mph across western coastal regions, compared to about 25-45 mph in other parts of Ireland. There may be intervals with higher gusts to near 80 mph around 0900h for parts of Galway, Mayo and Donegal, and adjacent parts of other counties. These very strong winds will be generated by a storm of hurricane intensity passing northwards around 15 W and some marine areas could be seeing force 11-12 warnings for Monday night and Tuesday morning. On the current track it is northwest Ireland and western Scotland most likely to see strong winds from this, but all other regions will have a time with moderately strong wind gusts by late morning or mid-day Tuesday. Now we'll have to keep a close watch on this to see if it shifts in track to any extent, but sometimes there can be a last-minute downgrade in the intensity of such events too. It seems unlikely that there would be an upgrade -- the storm is not of tropical origins, it has formed along the frontal boundary south of Nova Scotia and will likely explode into a deep (970 mbs) low through late Sunday and early Monday out around mid-ocean, then track towards the Hebrides and the Faeroes during Tuesday.

    My weather here today has been cloudy with periods of rain so far (about 3-5 mms) and it is about 17 C.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    At the moment wind chart has storm winds very close to west coast midday tues,this chart will prob change.

    windvector.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 6 September, 2009
    _____________________________

    TODAY will start off cloudy in the east and rainy in western counties, but this rain seems to be heading mainly towards the northeast and may take some time to arrive in the form of showers further south. Southerly winds will pick up to about 15-25 mph, and some clearing may follow in the afternoon, with highs reaching 18-19 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with steady southwest breezes and rather mild lows of about 11-13 C.

    MONDAY will have some morning sunshine, increasing afternoon cloud with some light rain possible by evening, and gradually increasing southerly winds reaching 30-50 mph in the west by evening, although only 15-30 mph elsewhere. It will become quite warm inland with highs of about 22 C, but strong southerly breezes will keep readings closer to 17 C on the south coast, 19 C east coast.

    MONDAY NIGHT will become very windy in western counties (south 40-60 mph) and rather breezy elsewhere too, with periods of light rain and a warm overnight low near 14 C.

    TUESDAY will bring a period of gale to storm force winds (SSW veering WSW 45-65 mph with higher gusts possible) to western counties and the nearby open Atlantic where force 11-12 winds are possible (from the south veering to southwest then west). Skies will be mostly cloudy over all districts during the morning, with some showers developing, then an interval of clear skies with very strong SW to W winds. Highs could reach 22-24 C during all of this, then temperatures will fall off to about 17 C, which is about as warm as it will get on the west coast throughout. This situation will be updated regularly as the storm takes shape on Sunday night and Monday morning.

    By Tuesday night, the strong winds will rapidly abate, clear skies will lead to some ground fog and mist, and overnight lows will fall off to about 8 C. On Wednesday and for several days thereafter, strong high pressure will build up over Ireland and keep the winds very light, but this is quite a warm high and this may lead to some prolonged fog or low cloud in the mornings before gradual clearing, so it may not be unbroken sunshine, but it should at least be dry except for some heavy morning dews. Expect a temperature range from about 6-8 C overnight to 19-21 C for afternoon highs during this spell. Eventually this dry spell will lead to an interval of warmer southeast winds but this could involve some low cloud and light rain eventually; however, it is quite conceivable that some places in Ireland will have a long dry spell lasting well into the second half of the month.



    TUESDAY


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 420 ✭✭Blame it on the


    Sunday, 6 September, 2009
    _____________________________

    TODAY will start off cloudy in the east and rainy in western counties, but this rain seems to be heading mainly towards the northeast and may take some time to arrive in the form of showers further south. Southerly winds will pick up to about 15-25 mph, and some clearing may follow in the afternoon, with highs reaching 18-19 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with steady southwest breezes and rather mild lows of about 11-13 C.

    MONDAY will have some morning sunshine, increasing afternoon cloud with some light rain possible by evening, and gradually increasing southerly winds reaching 30-50 mph in the west by evening, although only 15-30 mph elsewhere. It will become quite warm inland with highs of about 22 C, but strong southerly breezes will keep readings closer to 17 C on the south coast, 19 C east coast.

    MONDAY NIGHT will become very windy in western counties (south 40-60 mph) and rather breezy elsewhere too, with periods of light rain and a warm overnight low near 14 C.

    TUESDAY will bring a period of gale to storm force winds (SSW veering WSW 45-65 mph with higher gusts possible) to western counties and the nearby open Atlantic where force 11-12 winds are possible (from the south veering to southwest then west). Skies will be mostly cloudy over all districts during the morning, with some showers developing, then an interval of clear skies with very strong SW to W winds. Highs could reach 22-24 C during all of this, then temperatures will fall off to about 17 C, which is about as warm as it will get on the west coast throughout. This situation will be updated regularly as the storm takes shape on Sunday night and Monday morning.

    By Tuesday night, the strong winds will rapidly abate, clear skies will lead to some ground fog and mist, and overnight lows will fall off to about 8 C. On Wednesday and for several days thereafter, strong high pressure will build up over Ireland and keep the winds very light, but this is quite a warm high and this may lead to some prolonged fog or low cloud in the mornings before gradual clearing, so it may not be unbroken sunshine, but it should at least be dry except for some heavy morning dews. Expect a temperature range from about 6-8 C overnight to 19-21 C for afternoon highs during this spell. Eventually this dry spell will lead to an interval of warmer southeast winds but this could involve some low cloud and light rain eventually; however, it is quite conceivable that some places in Ireland will have a long dry spell lasting well into the second half of the month.



    TUESDAY

    Wow MT, Tuesday is reading close to "perfect" but it ain't Halloween yet...:D

    lol

    Tactical will be pleased to hear of the upcoming good weather though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,542 ✭✭✭Tactical


    Too right I will :D

    Although the forecast wind event preceeding the good / dry weather may keep me busy :mad:

    Still though as long as we get a break of a couple of weeks I'll be very happy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 7 September, 2009
    ____________________________

    TODAY will start out dry in most of Ireland with some sunshine boosting temperatures rapidly in a southerly wind of 10-20 mph. By afternoon there will be increasing cloud followed by some spotty light rain mostly over the south and west, and temperatures near 21 C. Winds will also pick up to about 15-30 mph. Gale to storm force winds from the south will be developing over the Atlantic around 20 W and spreading closer to the west coast by late afternoon.

    TONIGHT will become windy and very mild with further showers, mostly rather light, but some risk of heavier thundershowers in the southwest. Winds will pick up to SSW 30-50 mph in western counties (40-65 mph over exposed coasts and hills) but should remain more like 20-35 mph in eastern Ireland. Lows will be around 14 C and it could be as warm as 18 C by sunrise.

    TUESDAY will remain very windy although Connacht will have the strongest winds, SSW 45-70 mph with some higher gusts, veering to W 40-60 mph. Other regions will be in the range of 35-55 mph with a mid-day frontal passage that could set off some heavier showers. Following this front, the skies should clear for a while and temperatures will peak around 22-24 C in eastern counties, 17-20 C in the west. We'll be tracking this front and the strong winds fairly continuously through the next 24 hours.

    TUESDAY NIGHT the strong winds will rapidly abate and after midnight it may be almost calm especially inland, allowing fog to form under the partly cloudy to clear skies. Lows will fall to about 6-8 C in rural areas and 10 C in larger cities and near the west coast.

    WEDNESDAY will be a much calmer day with the fog slowly lifting then some sunshine and light northerly winds becoming easterly but only 5-10 mph. Highs will reach 19-20 C.

    This should be followed by several more days of similar dry, calm weather with extensive fog or low cloud at night, and some hazy sunshine each day, with temperatures generally near 7 C overnight, 20 C during the daytime hours. Eventually more of an east to southeast wind will develop in this spell and bring more extensive low cloud to southern counties, but this may take almost a week on current indications.

    Updates about the strong low will be posted during the day ... currently it is located near 45N 30W (992 mbs) but is expected by mid-day Tuesday to be near 57N 17W (965 mbs).


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Strongest of winds hitting north west of ireland and scotland.not much of an event in my eyes because there used to wet and windy weather.inland according to this chart looks fairly calm by midday tues.

    ukwind.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Monday, 3:45 p.m.
    _____________________

    Currently the developing low is around 52N 22W at about 982 mbs. Rain is spreading into the west coast but taking a mostly northerly track there so it will only spread eastwards gradually through this evening and the tendency will be for it to become sporadic further east, could be some moderate bursts giving 5-15 mms in parts of Galway and Mayo as well as the coastal sections of other counties further south. I think the strongest winds for the west coast will arrive late tonight and continue through Tuesday morning, not sure if the front will be quite as calm as the map above suggests in eastern Ireland as the gradient looks more into the 20-40 mph range for Dublin, and any shower development along the cold front could result in stronger wind gusts locally. I'll post another update around 8 to 10 p.m. ... as today is Labour Day, I am doing nothing. My local weather yesterday was rather dull with some rain at times, and a high of about 18 C. Looks about the same today so far.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Monday, 9:45 p.m.
    ____________________

    Things seem to be developing about as expected, winds slowly increasing over the Atlantic and low appears to be near 53N 20W at about 977 mbs. Keeping an eye on a cluster of heavy showers off to the southwest of Kerry, may come ashore near Clare or Shannon estuary moving northeast, around midnight or 0100. Otherwise, most of the rain seems to have moved well to the north and to some extent the east coast, and is becoming rather patchy so this next cluster will be about the only source for any additional rainfall overnight in most places.

    My weather here today, about the same as in parts of Ireland, cloudy, some light rain, southeast winds 10-20 mph, 18 C.

    I may update again before forecast time at 0530, if you don't see one, probably means nothing unexpected has developed. The strongest winds should be hitting places like Limerick and Galway around 0300-0600 and lasting through the morning. I hadn't stressed strong winds on the south coast but certainly Cork would likely be in line for gusts to 55 mph or so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 8 September, 2009
    _____________________________

    Situation (0630) ... A band of frontal rain now covers most of northern and western counties of Ireland, while it remains generally cloudy, but dry, in eastern and southeastern counties. This rain band could develop into some gusty thundershowers as it moves east, followed by gradual clearing from the west. Winds are quite strong along the front and behind it, and are increasing ahead of it as well. Forecasts for today are divided into several regions as the weather situation is rather complex.

    TODAY (eastern Ireland) will start out cloudy with strong southerly winds locally gusting to 40 mph. Rain will arrive by about 0900 and persist for several hours. There could be a gusty thunderstorm for some regions, then winds will veer rapidly to WSW 30-50 mph, with gradual clearing by late afternoon. Highs today will be around 21 C.

    TODAY (central Ireland and most of Ulster) will start out wet and windy with periods of rain and a possible thundershower (10-20 mms will fall) and rather erratic winds sometimes gusting to about 50 mph and sometimes dropping off considerably (strong winds above the surface are not always mixing down to the ground in the frontal zone) ... around mid-day this rain should taper off to drizzle or light showers then clearing will gradually develop. Winds will become westerly 30-55 mph and highs will be level near current readings of about 18-20 C.

    TODAY (western Ireland) will become very windy from the SW to W as the last of the rain departs northeast, then some breaks in the overcast will develop despite the continuing very strong winds (40-60 mph with some higher gusts, and 50-80 mph near the Donegal and Mayo coasts). Highs will reach about 17 C. The southwest could have prolonged morning rain and a gusty thundershower but winds in the afternoon will be less severe, westerly at about 30-50 mph.

    Then for TONIGHT (in all regions) the weather will rapidly calm as the strong winds leave for Scotland, and much higher pressure builds in. After midnight there will likely be some dense fog patches developing especially inland and in lower elevations. Lows will reach 6-8 C outside the larger cities but about 10 C on the west coast.

    WEDNESDAY will be a pleasant, mainly sunny day once the morning fog or low cloud dissipate. Highs will reach 19 or 20 C and it will be almost calm with just a very light northwest wind.

    THURSDAY to SUNDAY is looking quite fabulous compared to much of the past few months; dry, often sunny after morning fog dissipates, and with rather light easterly winds. Expect lows each night to be about 7 or 8 C with some lower readings in the usual "frost hollows" (even a light touch of frost in some northern valleys) but highs should be around 20 or 21 C each day, with very light east winds (moderate breezes near south coast). High cloud may become a frequent part of the weather picture in the south from distant fronts well to the south and west. This pattern seems likely to persist for about a week or ten days and should gradually transform into a warmer southerly type of flow that could still be relatively dry.

    Watch for updates on today's active weather.


  • Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭jon burrows


    Strange to see that it was 18oC this morning at 6:30am when I was leaving for work...What was up with that??


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    I had one little shower today and the trees are barely moving,it must of all happened in north west


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 677 ✭✭✭darc


    I'm looking forward to possibly your shortest 7 days forecast to date.

    Wednesday 9th to Tuesday 15th, Dry, partly sunny, 17 - 21 degrees, some fog at night.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 9 September, 2009
    _______________________________

    I second that motion ... high pressure is building up over Ireland and will hang around through the weekend. The latest guidance stresses that this will be quite a warm high so I expect that dense fog will become an issue the next few nights, especially with the surplus moisture in the ground after weeks of above normal rainfall and high humidity.

    TODAY will see any morning fog disappearing rather quickly, and it will eventually warm up to about 18 or 19 C with very light northerly winds but local sea breezes and other variable winds likely to set in.

    TONIGHT (and the next several nights) after a clear start many places will see dense fog after midnight, and it may be quite thick by morning, giving near zero visibility in some rural locations. Lows will average about 6 to 8 C but could be even lower in a few spots, although higher in mid-town and coastal locations. Note that this fog situation will redevelop each night until the high breaks down, and some places could be stuck in the fog until 0930 or later.

    THURSDAY to about SUNDAY, the high stays put and will act like a magnifying glass making the sunshine feel quite warm or even hot locally, as temperatures rise to around 20 C or perhaps a bit warmer in the western half of the country as a light southeast flow sets in. It will be quite a contrast from the chilly nights to the warm mid-afternoon conditions under this high, but the one thing we need to watch out for would be any persistent low cloud left over from the morning fog. It is early enough in the autumn season that this should not be much of an issue, but sometimes these inversions can combine with a sea-breeze to create a tenacious layer of low cloud or fog, and places like Dublin (Dun Laoghaire in particular) or coastal Wicklow could be at risk for this during the calm spell of weather, so don't be too surprised if the sunshine is not universal across the country. However, these fog banks can also drift around in the light winds and give intermittently misty and sunny conditions too. We get this same phenomenon here in the autumn, and sometimes some very localized fog that just covers the first few blocks inland from the coast.

    Eventually, I think this high pressure will sink into western Europe and it will be back to a more mobile Atlantic pattern but not nearly as wet as before, possibly just a few weaker frontal systems that may continue a mostly dry regime although without the foggy, calm nights at that point (probably into middle of next week).

    Just a note, my own weather here on Tuesday was hazy sunshine with increasing cloud ahead of an expected heavy rain for Wednesday, so we are now going in opposite directions weather-wise.

    Enjoy the fine weather, it has been a long time coming. :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 968 ✭✭✭Oliverdog


    Thanks a million - local chiropodists have been reporting cases of webbed-feet, so we're delirious with expectation. :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 10 September, 2009
    _______________________________

    TODAY will become sunny in most places once any fog burns off, then it should be a near-perfect day with light winds and warm afternoon highs of 17 to 20 C.

    TONIGHT (and the next several nights) dense fog will redevelop around midnight and become very thick in some rural areas around sunrise. Some other places will get low cloud or mist rather than fog, while others stay clear. Lows will drop to about 5-8 C in rural areas and 10-12 C in warmer places like mid-town and coastal locations. This cycle will continue until about Monday at least.

    FRIDAY to SUNDAY, expect very similar conditions to today, possibly a degree or two warmer in some spots, especially in western and central counties as there will be a very light southeast wind flow in southern counties. As I discussed the other day, there is always a slight risk of fog hanging around much of the morning at least in a few locations, and you'll probably know where those are from past experience, either deep valleys or some coastal locations where the sea-breeze can cause fog to hang around. But that will be the exception as most places bask in warm sunshine each day, with highs 18-22 C.

    MONDAY to WEDNESDAY it's possible that the high will drift off to the west for a couple of days and promote a light northeasterly flow; this will have the effect of reducing the overnight fog formation, and adding some partly cloudy skies to eastern counties at times, but temperatures will remain about the same or drop a degree or two, to the 17-19 C range. This high is in no hurry to leave the general area and could then be back overhead later in the week for more dry, calm weather, and when it does break down it seems likely that the more mobile westerly systems will be weaker than before and still somewhat on the dry side later this month.

    (My weather on Wednesday was cloudy with some rather heavy rain in the morning giving about 25 mms; later on it was dry with temps near 18 C).


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,493 ✭✭✭Fulton Crown


    Well done MT - keep the good news comin !!:D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Thursday, 7 p.m.
    _____________________

    I'm sure everyone is enjoying the change in the weather ... the high has built up to about 1041 mbs just to the north of Belfast, which means that tonight's fog potential will be even greater than last night, also some parts of the north and central counties could see some very low overnight readings and a trace of frost in one or two locations can't be ruled out here, probably the lowest screen temperatures will be 2 or 3 C in these locations, but that can lead to a ground frost. Most places will bottom out near 5 or 6 C and if you live in any larger town, 8 to 10 C. This is the kind of weather pattern in which the "urban heat island" effect is maximized (a strong wind being the other extreme where the urban effect is almost removed).

    My weather here today is about the same as yours after some rain yesterday moved away overnight, and we have had cloud-free skies all day so far, with 18 C at 1100. Not quite as calm here as this high is weaker and drifting across in a two-day period, so only a few patches of ground fog in rural areas rather than widespread fog during the early morning hours.


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