Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

Artane2002 · 14-09-2019 8:52pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

As 2019-20 is likely to be a transitional winter in terms of QBO from west to easterly, here's a quick reanalysis of similar winters of the past. Two things of note:

1. The anomalous Aleutian High in the North Pacific which is usually associated with warmer than average SSTs as is the case in 2019.

2. Relative above average heights over Greenland with the jet stream on a southerly track through Europe. Definite -NAO signal here which goes along with the increased probability of -NAO during 2019-20 as a result of North Atlantic SSTs.

Coincidental how the QBO data features similar results to some teleconnections or drivers in 2019. What's also of note I see is how all the years were either ENSO neutral or featured a La Niña event with none of them featuring an El Niño event - 2019/20 is likely to be ENSO neutral right now.

Wouldn't the Greenland high anomaly need to be red to be meaningful (not that long range forecasts mean much!)? The yellow probably just means weaker than average low pressure but still low pressure. I think that got people carried away last winter when some models were showing above average heights over Greenland, construed by some to be blocking but in reality they meant weaker LP than average.

sryanbruen · 14-09-2019 9:34pm

MidMan25 wrote: »

What does all of that mean in English?

The Quasi Biennial Oscillation data, which is an index reflecting the zonal mean zonal winds in the stratosphere, shows some good correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); north Pacific and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) in 2019. It also shows an increased risk of -NAO in winter which is usually associated with colder than average conditions for much of Europe, similar to the University College London study that recently released and I briefly analysed in a post. This is especially the case for February when I look at it in a month by month breakdown and December to some extent too whilst January is more western based and weaker -NAO.

ENSO neutral conditions should mean we will see very little influence from the equatorial Pacific on global patterns this winter, compared to say something like a super Niño in 2015-16. I have a thread on ENSO updates but I don’t anticipate much need to update this winter unless we see a dramatic cooling or dramatic warming out of nowhere.

As you know, I’ve been doing these updates for a few years now and this is just one analysis of a couple or many to come. This analysis on its own merits is worth nothing but I found the 2019 correlations personally interesting. You know how sketchy and pointless long range forecasting is.

Artane2002 wrote: »

Wouldn't the Greenland high anomaly need to be red to be meaningful (not that long range forecasts mean much!)? The yellow probably just means weaker than average low pressure but still low pressure. I think that got people carried away last winter when some models were showing above average heights over Greenland, construed by some to be blocking but in reality they meant weaker LP than average.

Depends really. December 2010 overall produced fairly similar on these reanalysed charts. Not all years are blocked in the analysis, 1988-89 was pretty much the opposite way round with Euro High mania. But then you have years like 1955-56 with severe February, 1978-79 and 1995-96. As I mentioned above, January is quite weaker with the -NAO compared to February in the analysis.

Many more things to consider anyway and it’s just for fun at the end of the day. I won’t be posting about any seasonal models this year.

MidMan25 · 14-09-2019 11:02pm

Thanks!

Loughc · 14-09-2019 11:06pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

As 2019-20 is likely to be a transitional winter in terms of QBO from west to easterly.

Beast from the east 2 confirmed. I’ll inform the Daily Mail. :pac:

SeaBreezes · 15-09-2019 8:42pm

Looking at the solar cycles both 87 and 97 were just as the new solar cycle started after the min. That would be this year or next...

http://www.solen.info/solar/solcycle_old.html

Periscal · 16-09-2019 8:28am

ZX7R wrote: »

I was only forwarding what my wife translated for me hopefully I will learn to read there language with time as we will be moving to her part of Poland to live next June....
Can't wait to go

Whereabouts is that in Poland? But anyway you will get a taste of how is life in continental climate. I lived in Ireland for 15 years,now returned home to Slovakia since December 18. For me this time of the year is best as we always get so much stability in autumn and huge temperature amplitude, like yesterday tmin was 6C and Tmax 22C, love that, no wind and great visibility, perfect hiking weather. Looking forward to winter makes a bit uncomfortable reading when looking at latest seasonal models UKMO,ECMWF and Jamstec all indicating Euro High, that is very depressing here as we tend to get endless low cloud foggy days with temperatures around zero degrees, I hope that will not verify and there will be at least more dynamics in the atmosphere. I love to wake up to -10C sunshine.

Tabnabs · 16-09-2019 12:13pm

Torrential rain brought 40cm of snow to the mountains in SW Norway. A new warning has been issued for snow down to 500m asl.

kamera?id=1608508

ZX7R · 16-09-2019 12:51pm

Periscal wrote: »

Whereabouts is that in Poland? But anyway you will get a taste of how is life in continental climate. I lived in Ireland for 15 years,now returned home to Slovakia since December 18. For me this time of the year is best as we always get so much stability in autumn and huge temperature amplitude, like yesterday tmin was 6C and Tmax 22C, love that, no wind and great visibility, perfect hiking weather. Looking forward to winter makes a bit uncomfortable reading when looking at latest seasonal models UKMO,ECMWF and Jamstec all indicating Euro High, that is very depressing here as we tend to get endless low cloud foggy days with temperatures around zero degrees, I hope that will not verify and there will be at least more dynamics in the atmosphere. I love to wake up to -10C sunshine.

A village called medyka on the border with the Ukraine,yes that part of the world do have beautiful Autumn's,
I believe they call it golden autumn

Gonzo · 16-09-2019 1:25pm

Gavsweather yesterday mentioned that snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere at the moment is well above where it normally is, decent snow cover getting into parts of Russia now and the highlands of Scandinavia. We appear to be almost a month ahead of schedule. Of course this will have very little if any bearing towards Irish Winter of 2019/2020 but interesting to see.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-09-2019 1:32pm

It's fluid this time of year. Snow can disappear over large areas just as it appears.

I don't put any store really in what it means for our prospects but I suppose if there is a preference we would rather see snow cover extending west ward from Siberia than building rapidly through northern Canada.

hatrickpatrick · 19-09-2019 2:11pm

I'm not basing this on anything remotely scientific, just gut instinct and Murphy's Law, but is anyone else feeling that with the (horribly) negative NAO we've had for a huge amount of this summer, and indeed looking like going negative again next week with a substantial Greenie block (GFS) and at least above average heights (ECM), that knowing our luck it'll decide to go positive again just when the PV is getting underway and lock us in for a mundanely zonal final few months of 2019??

Obviously hope I'm wrong here, but it would be feckin' typical.

Lucreto · 19-09-2019 2:43pm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I'm not basing this on anything remotely scientific, just gut instinct and Murphy's Law, but is anyone else feeling that with the (horribly) negative NAO we've had for a huge amount of this summer, and indeed looking like going negative again next week with a substantial Greenie block (GFS) and at least above average heights (ECM), that knowing our luck it'll decide to go positive again just when the PV is getting underway and lock us in for a mundanely zonal final few months of 2019??

Obviously hope I'm wrong here, but it would be feckin' typical.

Oh it's almost guaranteed to happen. I be shock if it doesn't happen. It happened a few years ago. It was negative all summer then in winter flipped to extremely positive. I expect that to happen again.

That and a lobe of a PV moves to North America leaving up with Mild storms every few days.

Gonzo · 20-09-2019 5:49pm

Lucreto wrote: »

Oh it's almost guaranteed to happen. I be shock if it doesn't happen. It happened a few years ago. It was negative all summer then in winter flipped to extremely positive. I expect that to happen again.

That and a lobe of a PV moves to North America leaving up with Mild storms every few days.

We didn't have a sniff of northern blocking with positive NAO throughout all of last winter then bingo, nothing but Northern blocking and a negative NAO for most of summer. The blocking and negative NAO took a break for the past few weeks but looks like it may be coming back, but for how long?

I've a feeling this winter could be a typical mild Irish winter, just maybe not as excessively mild as last winter. Mild winters in Ireland don't come in pairs, they come in packs of 8 to 10.

However the trend for the next few weeks is a definite cooling as we head towards the middle of Autumn. This mornings runs shows a steady decline in temperatures, however there are some outlying members showing some very cold runs getting down to 0 to -5C @850hpa, if those came off we could start to see our first proper frosts of the season during the first week of October. These cold uppers could also be cold enough to produce wintry showers over high ground in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Oneiric 3 · 22-09-2019 1:46am

Gonzo wrote: »

I've a feeling this winter could be a typical mild Irish winter, just maybe not as excessively mild as last winter. Mild winters in Ireland don't come in pairs, they come in packs of 8 to 10.

.

It would be a little too much to bear if we had a repeat of last winter's sh*t-fest. The older I get, the less I care about temperature as the main factor of winter or summer weather, but I do care about actual weather... or as in the case of winter 2018-2019, the lack of it. I enjoy turbulent weather in the winter because it is in contrast to summer, which rarely brings anything of note weather wise. It also gives me a greater sense of being in the season in that having a 'rough' winter makes you appreciate the more typical benigness of the following spring and summer season all the more.

Regardless, my gut is telling me that we will see a more tumultuous winter this year as compared to last (which wouldn't be hard) with a good deal of De' Frog's 'snow watches' possible. My gut also tells me to expect to be bitterly disappointed, and regarding the latter gut feeling, it is rarely, ever wrong.

esposito · 22-09-2019 1:10pm

90% sure we will have a mild winter with numerous storms and another mild Christmas period. NAO will go positive for the majority of winter (as it normally does) Obviously hope I am totallly wrong with this.

I was just thinking yesterday, every rugby World Cup year in the autumn has been followed by a mild winter! Last one 2015 we all know it was exceptionally mild and unsettled winter. 2011 similar, 2007 similar. 2003 similar. I know it’s just a coincidence but it does not give me much hope!

Gonzo · 22-09-2019 3:30pm

esposito wrote: »

90% sure we will have a mild winter with numerous storms and another mild Christmas period. NAO will go positive for the majority of winter (as it normally does) Obviously hope I am totallly wrong with this.

I was just thinking yesterday, every rugby World Cup year in the autumn has been followed by a mild winter! Last one 2015 we all know it was exceptionally mild and unsettled winter. 2011 similar, 2007 similar. 2003 similar. I know it’s just a coincidence but it does not give me much hope!

Some long range models are going for a mild or exceptionally mild winter with an Atlantic south-westerly dominated winter. At this stage they are far too long away to be taken seriously and last winter's long range models went completely pear shaped. However it wouldn't surprise me if we end up with another mild or very mild winter.

SeaBreezes · 23-09-2019 12:08am

We are at solar min and are likely the only place in northern hemisphere that didn't get a brutal winter last year. I'm thinking this year we'll feel the cold.

Danno · 23-09-2019 10:53am

esposito wrote: »

90% sure we will have a mild winter with numerous storms and another mild Christmas period. NAO will go positive for the majority of winter (as it normally does) Obviously hope I am totallly wrong with this.

I was just thinking yesterday, every rugby World Cup year in the autumn has been followed by a mild winter! Last one 2015 we all know it was exceptionally mild and unsettled winter. 2011 similar, 2007 similar. 2003 similar. I know it’s just a coincidence but it does not give me much hope!

On the flip side, all summers ending in "8" have been rubbish, then 2018 came along. Perhaps, old coincidences are coming to an end!

Loughc · 23-09-2019 3:57pm

Mild wet Winter, the safest bet year in year out.

Ye can lock the thread now lads. :pac:

MidMan25 · 23-09-2019 4:16pm

Loughc wrote: »

Mild wet Winter, the safest bet year in year out.

Ye can lock the thread now lads. :pac:

Definitely December anyway! Haven't the majority of Decembers in the last 10 years been above the LTA for Dec? We're due a colder than avg one soon hopefully

sryanbruen · 23-09-2019 4:48pm

There was a run of 3 consecutive colder than average Decembers from 2008 to 2010 but been mild since although 2014 and 2017 closer to average whilst 2015 and 2018 exceptionally mild. Due to December 2010 being so severe, I think we’re due a severe January or February more than December in my opinion. February 2018 ended severe but wasn’t a very exceptional month overall. January 2010 was very cold but second half was relatively milder so not a severe one overall.

esposito · 23-09-2019 6:21pm

Danno wrote: »

On the flip side, all summers ending in "8" have been rubbish, then 2018 came along. Perhaps, old coincidences are coming to an end!

Perhaps, perhaps. One hopes they do!

Oneiric 3 · 24-09-2019 2:32pm

Been watching some preliminary winter forecasts for the States these last few days and the general consensus is that a ridge will set up in and around the SW'ern quarter, allowing cooler to spill into the eastern part which, more often than not, usually helps to activate the jet stream over the N.Atlantic. Let's just hope that if this was to happen that this potentially active jet stream does not end up near the Arctic circle, leaving Ireland under the eternal influence of a very active and stratus laden Azores high. :rolleyes:

A worst case scenario example:

Gonzo · 24-09-2019 5:58pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Been watching some preliminary winter forecasts for the States these last few days and the general consensus is that a ridge will set up in and around the SW'ern quarter, allowing cooler to spill into the eastern part which, more often than not, usually helps to activate the jet stream over the N.Atlantic. Let's just hope that if this was to happen that this potentially active jet stream does not end up near the Arctic circle, leaving Ireland under the eternal influence of a very active and stratus laden Azores high. :rolleyes:

A worst case scenario example:

If we end up with yet another mild winter, I wouldn't mind this scenario. In winter I only like precipitation of the white gold variety. Nothing worse than months on end of cold rain and wind so i'd happily take quiet, dry and mild, if snow ends up in Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey.

Oneiric 3 · 24-09-2019 8:32pm

Gonzo wrote: »

If we end up with yet another mild winter, I wouldn't mind this scenario. In winter I only like precipitation of the white gold variety. Nothing worse than months on end of cold rain and wind so i'd happily take quiet, dry and mild, if snow ends up in Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey.

A repeat of January this year it is for you so!

pad199207 · 24-09-2019 8:34pm

Yup if we’re not going to get proper cold and snow well then mild suits me great!

The in between is just depressing

Oneiric 3 · 24-09-2019 8:51pm

Most of our active weather in winter is of the mild type anyway.

My three wishes for this winter coming:
1. Lots of strong gales.
2. Lots of thunder and hail storms.
3. The odd frosty night for a dog walk or two.

ZX7R · 24-09-2019 10:42pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Most of our active weather in winter is of the mild type anyway.

My three wishes for this winter coming:
1. Lots of strong gales.
2. Lots of thunder and hail storms.
3. The odd frosty night for a dog walk or two.

You could get all the above in one day , during an Irish winter

esposito · 25-09-2019 6:28pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Most of our active weather in winter is of the mild type anyway.

My three wishes for this winter coming:
1. Lots of strong gales.
2. Lots of thunder and hail storms.
3. The odd frosty night for a dog walk or two.

Have to strongly disagree with you here.
Strong gales, no thanks.
Lots of frosty mornings yes please.
I doubt there will be lots of thunderstorms in winter but you never know.

We most likely will get frequent strong gales so you should be satisfied there.

In fact 2 of your 3 wishes will most likely come true.

sryanbruen · 25-09-2019 6:36pm

Have to shake my head saying "if only it were December, or January" with this evening's GFS 12z for early to mid October.

Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

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