Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

Oneiric 3 · 22-03-2020 6:41pm #1

A thread to discuss the rainfall patterns of the current year. This chart below shows the mean rainfall trend (expressed as the 28 day running percentage total) for Ireland (Rep) since the start of 2018:

As can been seen, and has been observed by many on this forum, dry spells (really anything below 75% of normal) have been increasingly short supply since late July last year right up to the present, with anomaly values up to 275% during late February/early March this year. Thankfully, the trend, as can be seen in the chart above, is now trending downwards and hopefully this will continue over the next few weeks. A long dry spell (as much as I hate them myself) is what is needed over Ireland right now to help dry out the land a bit and to add a bit of cheer to these bizarre times.

Data used is from Met Eireann.

Harry Palmr · 24-03-2020 4:56pm

Looks like most of the country is heading for a two week dry period minimum.

Donegal Storm · 24-03-2020 9:19pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Looks like most of the country is heading for a two week dry period minimum.

Long, long, long overdue. Feels like we've really been made to pay for daring to have a nice summer in 2018.

At the moment the only thing of interest weather-wise for most of us is that its dry enough for a walk in the evening so a prolonged dry spell would do wonders

km79 · 24-03-2020 9:24pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Looks like most of the country is heading for a two week dry period minimum.

THE DROUGHT IS COMING

giveitholly · 25-03-2020 12:30am

km79 wrote: »

THE DROUGHT IS COMING

Could do with a shower to keep the dust down!!!

km79 · 25-03-2020 12:32am

giveitholly wrote: »

Could do with a shower to keep the dust down!!!

The land is parched

Oneiric 3 · 30-03-2020 9:47pm

If Casement comes in with a 0.0mm daily reading for today, then it will be the 13th consecutive totally dry day there. However, some trace amounts were recorded there today though so it remains to be seen if these have amounted to anything.

Either way, looks like the weather is set to gradually break down again from Thursday onwards with occasional spells of rain or showers over the weekend and into next week. Pity really, place is just beginning to show signs of drying out here in the west. Really could do with another week or two of dry, breezy weather to set things back to normal again.

Gaoth Laidir · 31-03-2020 6:37am

How are the Shannon flood areas doing now? Are they still under water?

Harry Palmr · 31-03-2020 11:16am

I'd say most are, I went past a standard field in East Waterford the other day that was still part submerged, so flood plains will still be sodden till June regardless.

sryanbruen · 02-04-2020 10:09pm

Both Casement and D.A. had absolute droughts from 18 March to 1 April, bang on 15 days. This spell was broken today though with some afternoon light rain.

Unsure on other stations.

uck51js9zml2yt · 02-04-2020 11:10pm

Some light rain tonight in North Kerry. Been dry the last 2 weeks

sryanbruen · 06-04-2020 1:33pm

MÉ did a post on the absolute drought and dry spell. 4 synoptic stations (including the 3 Dublin stations) had absolute drought conditions and 11 synoptic stations had a dry spell.

https://www.met.ie/climatological-droughts-and-dry-spells-2020

Harry Palmr · 13-04-2020 10:25am

Watching the pressure charts on ECM and GSF has been interesting. While it's silly to predict a season ahead from rolling 10 days charts a broad pattern, feel, vibe (are vibes allowed in meteorological science?) seems to becoming apparent - that the Atlantic conveyor belt has been forced away on a split jetstream so HP originating in the Azores builds, weakens, moves about a bit but comes back into play.

nacho libre · 13-04-2020 11:26am

Harry Palmr wrote: »

seems to becoming apparent - that the Atlantic conveyor belt has been forced away on a split jetstream so HP originating in the Azores builds, weakens, moves about a bit but comes back into play.

It's all down to the Polar Vortex realeasing its grip and saying goodbye for another year. It's not uncommon at this time of year for a meandering azores high to keep paying us a visit, or for pressure to eventually rise towards Greenland, when the Polar Vortex breaks up completely.

I wonder will we soon see posts complaining that we badly need rain. Who'd have thought that was likely back in February.

Harry Palmr · 13-04-2020 11:38am

We badly need rain

Well some anyway - we got nothing yesterday in the SE and as things stand Friday is only a 50/50 by which point it'll be over three weeks without rain worth measuring.

Oneiric 3 · 14-04-2020 10:29am

Cumulative rainfall total (national mean) for April so far compared with the average for the previous 10 years. Despite some moderate totals in the south of the country over last weekend, we are still running well below normal broadly speaking:

Current national total stands at 15.7mm. Dry weather is expected to continue up to about Thursday but the risk of some rain or showers in places at times increases again towards the coming weekend.

Data C/O Met Eireann.

pauldry · 14-04-2020 1:30pm

Ridiculous having a drought thread after 7 straight months of floods. Surely theres no concerns yet.

Maybe by June if still low it might be an issue but we are owed 210 dry days after that Autumn and Winter

RobertKK · 14-04-2020 2:46pm

pauldry wrote: »

Ridiculous having a drought thread after 7 straight months of floods. Surely theres no concerns yet.

Maybe by June if still low it might be an issue but we are owed 210 dry days after that Autumn and Winter

Land can dry out very fast this time of year.

There is a saying for next month: 'A wet and windy May fills the barns with corn and hay'.

pauldry · 15-04-2020 9:20am

Theres another saying

"Once you worry about rain in Ireland itl piss for 6 months on end"

So let's pretend it's raining

Oneiric 3 · 15-04-2020 2:21pm

Running 28 day national % total running at just 37% as of yesterday, which is the lowest figure since January 20th, 2019.

Thought I'd post that gif just to piss off Pauldry some more.

Oneiric 3 · 19-04-2020 6:13pm

Updated rainfall chart for April up to yesterday:

Still running well below normal broadly speaking. A few showers around this evening, and maybe at times over the coming week, but a lot of dry weather still on the cards for most places for the next five days or so. This morning's model projections regarding rainfall totals for the coming week:

Not to be taken literally, but give a good indication that rainfall amounts will be scant at best this week.

Data above is c/o Met Eireann.

pauldry · 20-04-2020 11:24am

Was surprised to see the lake 1.9km from my home so low yesterday

Jesus in this country it pi$$es rain for 7 months with floods and in a couple of weeks it's all gone.

Probably the constant wind

Desert days may not be far

Oneiric 3 · 23-04-2020 2:10pm

Rainfall totals from all of the reporting Met Eireann stations for this April thus far:

Broadly speaking, the Greater Dublin region has seen the least amount of rain, while parts of the south and southwest have seen the most.

Note that these values are taken from a combination of data from the 'Yesterday's Weather and 'Daily data' from the Met Eireann website, so may conflict a little with the values as shown on their actual monthly totals page. I don't know why that is, but it is what it is.

But as already stated, data is c/o Met Eireann.

Oneiric 3 · 26-04-2020 4:59pm

Met Eireann map showing rainfall totals over the last 7 days:

Completely dry in most places with only spits and spots in the wetter regions. Taken an a nationwide whole, only around 3 to 4% of average rainfall has fallen in the last week.

Latest model outlook for the next 3 days showing the forecast 24 hr running totals (in one hour increments). Increasing chance of some scattered showers breaking out from about here on in up to Tuesday, with the chance of something a bit more substantial from Wednesday onwards.

As always, forecast distribution of rainfall and totals not to be taken at face value as details will change with each passing run.

Danno · 26-04-2020 9:45pm

Just 18.5mm in south Laois this April. Only a passing misty-drizzle shower for a few minutes here this evening.

SleetAndSnow · 26-04-2020 11:56pm

51.45mm or so here in cork city. Less then the last two years, more then 2017! Had a heavy shower today and a long period of drizzle

Neddyusa · 28-04-2020 12:54am

Danno wrote: »

Just 18.5mm in south Laois this April. Only a passing misty-drizzle shower for a few minutes here this evening.

Someone just turned off the tap here on Paddys Day. Only 13mm since. Some turnaround after what went before!

ednwireland · 28-04-2020 9:37am

SW donegal i have 9.6mm registered for april, unheard of. a bit of very light rain yesterday thats it

pauldry · 30-04-2020 10:16am

"Up" to 15.4mm of rain for April in Sligo after 235mm in February. Today's the last day so barely 20mm will be our lot.

Why is April always so dry and August ALWAYS wet?

I guess August is monsoon season now after heat builds in June and July or whatever youd call heat. I think the only way to get a dry August is a washout in June and July.

April has been extremely Sunny in Sligo too.

BrianD3 · 03-05-2020 1:51pm

Is it possible to get daily data/updates/estimates on soil moisture deficits? The only place I've seen these figures quoted is on Sunday's farming forecast on RTE. I presume that SMD is a complex enough thing and affected not only by rainfall, but also temperature, wind, humidity etc.

The reason I ask is, I have lawns to cut at my properties and this is apparently non essential travel. Grass growth has been very slow in April presumably due to the soil moisture deficit so from my POV I hope this continues. And yes, I realise that this is a selfish hope and farmers will be adversely affected if their grass growth is restricted by dry soils.

SouthWesterly · 03-05-2020 9:40pm

BrianD3 wrote: »

Is it possible to get daily data/updates/estimates on soil moisture deficits? The only place I've seen these figures quoted is on Sunday's farming forecast on RTE. I presume that SMD is a complex enough thing and affected not only by rainfall, but also temperature, wind, humidity etc.

The reason I ask is, I have lawns to cut at my properties and this is apparently non essential travel. Grass growth has been very slow in April presumably due to the soil moisture deficit so from my POV I hope this continues. And yes, I realise that this is a selfish hope and farmers will be adversely affected if their grass growth is restricted by dry soils.

Ive a field of grass a local is taking hay off. Very little growth. We need some rain. Had 3mm in the last week.

Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

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