All Things Met Eireann Related Go in Here (MOD NOTE #1)

DOCARCH wrote: »

Also bear in mind that Met Eireann have to be pretty sure of something actually occuring before they issue an alert...a couple of years ago there was a bit of an outcry after they issued an alert for very heavy snow, which did not materialise, and people were threatening to sue them.

Basically, they dammed if they do and dammed if they don't.

It is tough for them, but I think people (and judges if it came to it) would understand if they were over cautious. In my opinion they got it wrong with their upgrades this time. No point telling people to avoid unnecessary journeys/ stay in doors (as it is at red warning) when they're already in school or work.

Perhaps its a system issue though - maybe going to a percentage risk of various scenario's is the way to go?

I am interested to know from those accusing ME of not forecasting the storm in time: if they had a red warning on Tuesday's nine pm news, how exactly would things have been different yesterday?

And for those who believe this forum is a better guide to the weather than ME, just look at the overblown warning of snow and ice we've had over the years.

ppshay wrote: »

The met.ie web site could be better. Updates are very irregular.

15 hours?






And a one-line national forecast?

I agree it could do with a revamp. The other thing I've noticed on more than one occasion that the desktop version and the mobile version are showing different icons.
So for example, the desktop might be showing dark cloud with rain while the mobile version with have dark cloud with rain and sun. They should at least have a bit of consistancy.
I emailed them about this but never heard anything back.

tatranska wrote: »

It's ok, I saw the Me forecast tonight on Rte. There will be no storms this week

They got it way wrong on the farming forecast last Sunday.

http://www.rte.ie/player/ie/show/10251133/

John.Icy wrote: »

Can people finally just do some god damn research before I see another post like this.

Wednesdays storm appeared last week, and it chopped and changed tonnes. At one point didn't ECM or GFS drop it totally? Like go look the GFS 12z from the 8th. Nothing out of the ordinary, a bit of wind, barely a yellow probably.

If ME went with the notion that they should stick with day old data and not update forecasts based on the latest model runs, well then people would still be sh*tting all over them.

People on here, including myself can look at the models and post run by run with updates and the main guys will update their opinion according to the data straight after. ME can't do that and can't afford to buy into something far in advance. People on here don't get mauled for making mistakes, ME do. Go back through some threads where MT hasn't been that accurate and see the response if someone called him on it, destroyed. I remember in my first weeks on here when I said I didn't need MT forecasts to know what was going on and people wanted me banned. Granted they should have just put out the red Tuesday to make people happy. They did however warn of high winds on Tuesday, up to 160km/h? Like, if people shook that off because it was an orange warning, well that's their own fault because that's just utterly moronic.

Not just directed at you anymore, just a general comment towards the amount of people commenting on how few people knew about this. People need to realise not everyone is like us. Not everyone likes checking the charts, watching the weather religiously. This isn't America or England where things can be hyped to biblical proportion for little reasons at times.

To finish, people can check the the ECM (one of ME's big boys) 0z 9th of February which is the Sunday. If you go look at that and still call ME out for what they said on Sunday and ignore the warning for winds Monday and Tuesday just because the lack of a RED warning, I dunno.

I agree with most of your points.

Met Eireann generally do a fantastic job with limited resources and me and you have the luxury of being able to make erroneous forecasts without any repercussions, or rather make no forecast at all!

However the national Meteorological Institute must be held to a much higher standard than amateur forecasters posting on a web forum.

Today's issuance of a widespread Orange warning for Munster & Leinster for me illustrates the issue with the warning on Tuesday.

Let us remember there was NO warning whatsoever for wind on Tuesday morning when a large majority of models were indicating a severe wind event for parts of Ireland.

Only very late in the day did Met E release a warning and then later release a Red Warning after midnight!

The fact is that Wednesday's storm was most definitely under-forecast by Met E. The fact that they ramped up Orange then Red Warnings as the event happened indicates this.

The windspeeds on the day were no shock if one had looked at the model consensus 24/36 hours before, yet it took Met E until the event was happening to spread warnings to counties that models had shown would be impacted severely.

The Issuance of Orange Warnings for minor events since, indicates further that they must have underestimated this event.

What frustrates me is I do not know why they did not release an wide range Orange warning for Munster and Leinster late Monday or early Tuesday. There was significant model support for a vigorous system to impact south and east Ireland at this time. Yes, uncertainty of the exact track, but with the risk of a significant impact event, it should have been made. It was not like this storm came as a shock when it hit, it was well forecast by models 36-48 hours out.

And today's issuance of a wide range Orange warnings is perhaps an illustration of why the warnings system used by Met Eireann must be looked at again. (There must be an introduction of both Impact and Probability in the Warning system and perhaps changes in the colour coding)

-- Also just to look at your last line, If Met E had of taken a look at the Ensemble maps on Sunday 0z they would have seen as much as 40% or greater of members showed a vigorous storm system over or near Ireland at the time. So the risk was there. This was heightened by the GEFS members also showing the risk of a deep low system.

whitebriar wrote: »

lack of experience with developing extreme events I think.


This is it.
Talk of stingjets etc is common enough in this forum and mostly nothing comes of them, ie they don't materialize at all.
So tbh,I think we should be thankful for the fact M.E have little experience of extremes.
What octo mentioned is probably true regarding small team's being on duty and having different opinions leading to different forecasts.
That's a serious systems issue if so that needs addressing.

No stingjet was evident in the end on water vapour imagery , no dry slot was apparent.

Just very strong pressure gradient resulted in the very intense winds.

I was expecting one though watching things unfold.