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GE2020: Dublin South West

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  • 18-01-2020 9:39pm
    #1
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,516 ✭✭✭


    Here are the declared candidates so far:
    • Deputy Colm Brophy (Fine Gael),
    • Ellen O’Malley Dunlop (Fine Gael),
    • Deputy John Lahart (Fianna Fáil),
    • Cllr. Charlie O’Connor (Fianna Fáil),
    • Cllr. Deirdre O’Donovan (Fianna Fáil),
    • Deputy Sean Crowe (Sinn Féin),
    • Ciarán Ahern (Labour Party),
    • Deputy Paul Murphy (RISE),
    • Cllr. Carly Bailey (Social Democrats),
    • Cllr. Francis Noel Duffy (Green Party),
    • Philip Dwyer (National Party),
    • Deputy Katherine Zappone (Independent),
    • Cllr. Mick Duff (Independent)

    All 5 sitting TDs are running again. Somewhat unusually for a 5-seater there are not 2 TDs from any 1 party or 2 Independents. Will the constituency maintain that diversity in this election?

    Will left-leaning candidates once again win the majority of seats here?


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    #2
    delta_bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 4,567 ✭✭✭delta_bravo


    Constituency has a habit of kicking out an incumbent (although not in 2016 I think)

    I think Socialist party is also running a candidate. Murphy could be in trouble with that and also Zappone is being targeted directly by the FG running mate for Brophy. If FF manage to get 2 here it will be a big signal of their country results. They must think its there to take the fact they are running 3 candidates. Seems risky. Not sure if we will have a Green wave here, this Duffy's main base is where Lahart is but he should be transfer friendly. Labour only selected their candidate last week so I'd say they have no chance

    Prediction:

    1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 Ind, 1 Green


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    #3
    scrumqueen
    Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭scrumqueen


    If these constituents are still angry at Zappone for selling out (and I hope they are) I reckon her seat will go to one of the below...

    Deputy Sean Crowe (Sinn Féin),
    Ciarán Ahern (Labour Party),
    Deputy Paul Murphy (RISE),
    Cllr. Carly Bailey (Social Democrats),
    Cllr. Francis Noel Duffy (Green Party),


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    #4
    youcancallmeal
    Registered Users Posts: 7,985 ✭✭✭youcancallmeal


    scrumqueen wrote: »
    If these constituents are still angry at Zappone for selling out (and I hope they are) I reckon her seat will go to one of the below...

    Deputy Sean Crowe (Sinn Féin),
    Ciarán Ahern (Labour Party),
    Deputy Paul Murphy (RISE),
    Cllr. Carly Bailey (Social Democrats),
    Cllr. Francis Noel Duffy (Green Party),

    In what way did she sell out? I'm not provoking a debate, I just don't follow what she does closely. I do know she's Minister for Children and Youth Affairs which I think a lot of people in Dublin South West seem to like about her


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    #5
    scrumqueen
    Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭scrumqueen


    youcancallmeal wrote: »
    In what way did she sell out? I'm not provoking a debate, I just don't follow what she does closely. I do know she's Minister for Children and Youth Affairs which I think a lot of people in Dublin South West seem to like about her

    She ran as an independent and then once elected she cashed in her chips for a Ministerial Seat on FGs Government, meaning she would have to vote in line with FG.


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    #6
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Yeah, I don't really get this idea that you would vote for someone on the basis that they won't go into government. What value is Paul Murphy sitting in the benches whining all the time? An independent in the government is worth ten on the bench.

    Zappone squeaked through on the last count in 2016, so I imagine FF are running three candidates in the hope of at least taking Zappone's seat. I don't see any of the other four going anywhere.

    Zappone campaigned well last time, but has since kind of disappeared, popping up only to make statements on whatever is happening in the children space. As minister she's forgettable, I don't think she's achieved anything of note?
    That's only marginally better than Shane Ross, who would have performed better if he'd kept his head down and STFU.

    Deirdre O'Donovan is very active and popular locally, so I don't see what value there would be in moving her to the Dail, but I don't think other people think like this when casting their votes. She polled pretty well last time as an independent, so might be hoping that the party allegiance can put her over the top.

    Aside from Charlie O'Connor or I don't think any of the rest have a hope of taking a seat.


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    #7
    scrumqueen
    Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭scrumqueen


    seamus wrote: »
    Yeah, I don't really get this idea that you would vote for someone on the basis that they won't go into government. What value is Paul Murphy sitting in the benches whining all the time? An independent in the government is worth ten on the bench.

    Zappone squeaked through on the last count in 2016, so I imagine FF are running three candidates in the hope of at least taking Zappone's seat. I don't see any of the other four going anywhere.

    Zappone campaigned well last time, but has since kind of disappeared, popping up only to make statements on whatever is happening in the children space. As minister she's forgettable, I don't think she's achieved anything of note?
    That's only marginally better than Shane Ross, who would have performed better if he'd kept his head down and STFU.

    I see your point, however, I think that she was representing a cohort of voters that would be very anti establishment imo is what the problem is.

    Her low profile may have had something to do with her wife passing away a year or so ago. That must have affected her, as it would anyone. She's in for a battle this time anyway.


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    #8
    kenco
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭kenco


    Im surprised FF are running 3 candidates here as to me it looks like their first preferences will be diluted and could cost a FF topping the poll.....I think they will do well to get 1 elected unless there is a major swing which in this constituency is unlikely

    FG should get 1 (more than likely Brophy) but no way are they topping the poll

    Crowe and Murphy are good vote getters but again there might be some cancelling out here and Murphy could be in trouble then.

    Labour and SD have little or no chance

    So then is down to Zappone (ind) and Duffy (GP)....cant see Zappone topping the poll but its the 1st prefs are spread and say Duffy is a close 2nd (if not 1st) then the transfers are going to be interesting.....

    Like last time around the 5th seat in DSW might be a dog fight with recounts aplenty....

    If I had to call it I would say (in no order) 1FG, 1FF, 1SF, 1GP and 1 Ind


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    #9
    seamus
    Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    kenco wrote: »
    Im surprised FF are running 3 candidates here as to me it looks like their first preferences will be diluted and could cost a FF topping the poll.....I think they will do well to get 1 elected unless there is a major swing which in this constituency is unlikely
    Could be just kite flying - getting the candidate's name up on poles and on ballots, so when the next election rolls around people will say, "Oh yeah, I've seen them before". Unlike the last time when there were something like 30 candidates, most of whom nobody knew.

    Lahart, Crowe and Murphy are dead certs IMO. Lahart is very popular in Rathfarnham, Crowe and Murphy very popular in Tallaght.

    Last time around there was a dog fight for the last two seats; but this was because FG ran two candidates and split the vote. FG had 19,000 first prefs between their two candidates.

    FG only have Brophy this time around, so even if they saw their vote share drop by 30%, Brophy would still get in on the first count.

    I guess the question really is where that FG overflow will go. Will it go to an independent, to the Greens, or even FF?


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    #10
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    seamus wrote: »
    Could be just kite flying - getting the candidate's name up on poles and on ballots, so when the next election rolls around people will say, "Oh yeah, I've seen them before". Unlike the last time when there were something like 30 candidates, most of whom nobody knew.

    Lahart, Crowe and Murphy are dead certs IMO. Lahart is very popular in Rathfarnham, Crowe and Murphy very popular in Tallaght.

    Last time around there was a dog fight for the last two seats; but this was because FG ran two candidates and split the vote. FG had 19,000 first prefs between their two candidates.

    FG only have Brophy this time around, so even if they saw their vote share drop by 30%, Brophy would still get in on the first count.

    I guess the question really is where that FG overflow will go. Will it go to an independent, to the Greens, or even FF?

    FG are also running Ellen O’Malley Dunlop who is fairly high profile being a former chair of the National Women's Council, though I can't see her getting elected.

    I'm not sure I'd consider Paul Murphy as a dead cert. The nature of the constituency means transfers aren't going to flow that freely to him, at least in the early stages (aside from a Crowe surplus).

    Brophy is likely to be elected - there's way too big a FG base in the area for him to not. I think Duffy will have a good chance too as he'll pull plenty of transfers from any surpluses/transfers from the FG, FF and Labour votes. Wouldn't rule out O'Connor either if there's a FF surge and Greens don't perform. Last seat between Zappone and Murphy in my view, and I'd say Murphy gets it.


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    #11
    kenco
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭kenco


    Id say Brophy should be ok given his profile and O'Malley while relatively high profile shouldn't split the FG vote. The thing is he is very unlikely to top the poll so its could be 1FG but maybe only the 3rd or 4th seat so if the FG numbers are low it could be interesting

    If FF were running 2 with Lahart as the main candidate I think they would top the poll and could bring in the second candidate on surplus/transfers.
    O'Donovan and Lahart are pretty much the same area too while O'Connor will hoover up whatever FF votes are still around in Tallaght and that could impact Crowes votes

    Zappone wont top the poll. I dont think Murphy will either so whoever does (FF or GP) will do so well below a quota so I expect plenty of changes as the count progresses

    Wouldnt surprise me if Zappone or Murphy lose out


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    #12
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,691 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    I think Charlie O'Connor will come good this time, the previously very popular politician was a victim on the FF purge by the voters, but he has arguably been a far better advocate for his constituents than others. He's not called Mr Tallaght for nothing.

    Zappone is for the chopping block and will ride off into the sunset with a ministerial pension as a one term wonder.

    Crowe, who I am shocked to see has been running for election since the 80s, has little recognition locally or nationally, you would think he would be a leading light of the SF party, but... He has a strong support base however and will be returned, most likely.

    Paul Murphy, he's the one to watch. Yet another party on the go, RISE (Radical Internationalist Socialist Environmentalist), he'll do well to be returned.


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    #13
    kenco
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭kenco


    I think FF have made a bad call running 3 here. Lahart and O'Connor with good vote management would have a chance of getting 2 seats.

    Lahart will lose some first preferences to O'Donovan as they are similar location wise. O'Connor will be fighting it out with Crowe for the Tallaght vote.

    I can only see one of them getting through as I dont think either will top the poll. Lahart has the advantage as he is the incumbent but stranger things have happened and if say O'Donovan polls better than expected it will likely be his votes she take.

    If FF take two here and O'Connor and Lahart win seats its bad news for Crowe (possibly) and Murphy (likely). I cant see this happening though without either of them topping the poll

    I think what level of 1st prefs Duffy (GP) gets is going to be a big factor. If is evenly spread between say Lahart, Brophy, Crowe and Duffy and none with a quota then its gets hard to call anything past the 1-3 seats with 4 and 5 going anywhere


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    #14
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Lahart and O'Donovan will gain a huge number of first prefs and transfers from their taking leadership on local issues in Knocklyon, whether it's the white-elephant of a roundabout that's still causing congestion or the build-to-rent's in Cosgrave's land.

    Regardless of your feeling on those two issues, the vast majority of people in Knocklyon feel strongly about at least one - so that guarantees Lahart a seat even with vote dilution, and might ease Deirdre over the line when combined with her base in Firhouse.

    Much as I like the Greens, Duffy has very little profile. He'll be getting my #1 regardless.


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    #15
    youcancallmeal
    Registered Users Posts: 7,985 ✭✭✭youcancallmeal


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Lahart and O'Donovan will gain a huge number of first prefs and transfers from their taking leadership on local issues in Knocklyon, whether it's the white-elephant of a roundabout that's still causing congestion or the build-to-rent's in Cosgrave's land.

    Regardless of your feeling on those two issues, the vast majority of people in Knocklyon feel strongly about at least one - so that guarantees Lahart a seat even with vote dilution, and might ease Deirdre over the line when combined with her base in Firhouse.

    Much as I like the Greens, Duffy has very little profile. He'll be getting my #1 regardless.

    Yep they've been very good on those issues. I really don't want to see Michael Martin as taoiseach but all the other sitting deputies and councillors have been completely silent on these issues.


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    #16
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,691 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    There is still quite a bit of resentment that O'Donovan ran and was elected as an Independent and then immediately pulled the curtain over and revealed herself as a fully fledged FF member, at a time when FF were on their knees with the electorate. I see them running her in this election as a name awareness exercise and she won't get very far in a crowded market.


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    #17
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Tabnabs wrote: »
    There is still quite a bit of resentment that O'Donovan ran and was elected as an Independent and then immediately pulled the curtain over and revealed herself as a fully fledged FF member, at a time when FF were on their knees with the electorate. I see them running her in this election as a name awareness exercise and she won't get very far in a crowded market.

    There isn't quite a bit of resentment over that, because it didn't happen.


    DO'D ran as an Indy in 2014 (with the help of Shane Ross).

    She joined FF in February 2019.

    The last local elections were in May 2019 where she had the highest 1st preference votes and was elected on the 1st count.


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    #18
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,691 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    You forgot to mention that she ran is a completely different ward after changing to FF. Maybe not so confident of getting re-elected by the previous voters.


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    #19
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Tabnabs wrote: »
    You forgot to mention that she ran is a completely different ward after changing to FF. Maybe not so confident of getting re-elected by the previous voters.

    That doesn't sound like an acknowledgement that you got all your details wrong?


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    #20
    VG31
    Registered Users Posts: 3,390 ✭✭✭VG31


    I had a great laugh reading this! He seems to be branding himself a communist-catholic, nationalist-unionist. He must be the only republican in the country who wants to rejoin the UK!

    colmokeefege20b.jpg?w=1024

    colmokeefege20a.jpg?w=1024

    https://irishelectionliterature.com/2020/02/04/leaflet-from-colm-okeeffe-independent-dublin-south-west-ge2020/#more-40781


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    #21
    Qrt
    Registered Users Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭Qrt


    VG31 wrote: »
    I had a great laugh reading this! He seems to be branding himself a communist-catholic, nationalist-unionist. He must be the only republican in the country who wants to rejoin the UK!

    colmokeefege20b.jpg?w=1024

    colmokeefege20a.jpg?w=1024

    https://irishelectionliterature.com/2020/02/04/leaflet-from-colm-okeeffe-independent-dublin-south-west-ge2020/#more-40781

    I feel like giving him my number one for the craic


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    #22
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,624 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Qrt wrote: »
    I feel like giving him my number one for the craic

    Its less of an issue with an Independent, but people doing this can unintentionally give the loons funding - either the expenses refund for a quarter quota or national funding for 2% total poll. Its why Renua have got a quarter million a year to troll on Facebook/Twitter since 2016. Please don't do it.


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    #23
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,691 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    74 votes at the last election. Who knows what number he'll get this time in this era of populism.


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    #24
    Marcusm
    Registered Users Posts: 10,184 ✭✭✭✭Marcusm


    He’s not helping himself with the photo which screams: “ I’m a grouch, deal with it.”


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    #25
    Tabnabs
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,691 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    A very slow, but very interesting race in DSW.
    Dublin South West: FF's Deirdre O'Donovan has requested a recount of count five
    Dublin South West Count 5
    Ahern, Ciaran LAB; 4,286
    Bailey, Carly SOCDEM: 4,020
    Brophy, Colm FG: 10,642
    Duffy, Francis Noel GP: 6,111
    Fay, Sandra SPBP: 3,641
    Lahart, John FF: 5,901
    Murphy, Paul SPBP: 8,523
    O'Connor, Charlie FF: 4,123
    O'Donovan Deirdre FF: 3,639
    Zappone, Katherine IND: 4,800
    Excluded: Deirdre O'Donovan
    Noone elected on this count
    The recount starts at noon


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    #26
    McGrath5
    Registered Users Posts: 2,323 ✭✭✭McGrath5


    O' Donovan eliminated after the latest count, she can go can back to pressing the pedestrian lights on the Orlagh roundabout now.


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    #27
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    God forbid a local councillor organise a grassroots campaign on a local issue. That's so laughable and terrible. Let's all mock her because we're unimaginative morons!


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