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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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    #1082
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    2006 is to house prices as 2019 is to rent prices.
    Landlord will be calling it the “good ole days” for years to come (bar those with bad tenants)

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/the-owner-saw-five-of-us-in-a-line-to-rent-his-house-and-upped-the-price-by-500-39416434.html


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    #1083
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,001 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    2006 is to house prices as 2019 is to rent prices.
    Landlord will be calling it the “good ole days” for years to come (bar those with bad tenants)

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/the-owner-saw-five-of-us-in-a-line-to-rent-his-house-and-upped-the-price-by-500-39416434.html

    You could be right, we may not see rental prices like that again for a while. But there are many variables/unknowns at the moment. What will demand be like when colleges reopen for physical attendance and workers are back in their offices? And what effect will the decrease in property build completions/LLs selling up have on supply when demand increases? No one knows right now, but as always, if demand outstrips supply, prices will rise. I think it is pointless basing anything on current advertisements, few people are moving, lots of workers have left rentals and gone home, no students and no leases being terminated by LLs, all these are likely to change as soon as it is safe to reopen fully.


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    #1084
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    The increase supply of rental from short term to long term is also only a one-off gain. It wont occur again. Likely some will move back to short term rental as time goes by


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    #1085
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,160 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    2006 is to house prices as 2019 is to rent prices.
    Landlord will be calling it the “good ole days” for years to come (bar those with bad tenants)

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/the-owner-saw-five-of-us-in-a-line-to-rent-his-house-and-upped-the-price-by-500-39416434.html

    The rental market has always been cyclical as long as I have followed it. The cycles tend to be about 4 years long. It is likely 2019 was the top of the cycle, Covid or no Covid. A softening rental market tends to make some landlords bail out and prospective investors hold back. After a few years of this a shortage develops and rents rise again for a period. A situation where sales are strong and rents weak will cause many landlords to offload.


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    #1086
    ebayissues
    Registered Users Posts: 446 ✭✭ebayissues


    Has anyone seen changes in prices for house shares? I have not. I still see silly prices going for box rooms.


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    #1087
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    ebayissues wrote: »
    Has anyone seen changes in prices for house shares? I have not. I still see silly prices going for box rooms.

    Are you seeing these on Daft or on Facebook groups? I follow some of those Facebook rental groups and the activity under the new posts is extremely low so, while the asking prices may be crazy, it doesn't look like they are getting people in as easily.

    I presume the new monthly housing report from Daft is still going ahead? If so, it should be published before the end of this week for July.


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    #1088
    redarmyblues
    Registered Users Posts: 972 ✭✭✭redarmyblues


    AngryLips wrote: »
    This is to be welcomed, anything to increase both supply and quality can only be a good thing ...price drops will follow

    At 457K per unit and a total of 317 units I doubt this will result in a cheap rent Nirvana in Dublin. If this trend continues it might put a squeeze on the bottom end of the market where the risk of default is higher, in fairness who will want to invest in this market. The state may or will have to step in acting as a middleman to make up the shortfall, renting off LLs to rent to tenants.


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    #1089
    AngryLips
    Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭AngryLips


    redarmyblues wrote: »
    At 457K per unit and a total of 317 units I doubt this will result in a cheap rent Nirvana in Dublin. If this trend continues it might put a squeeze on the bottom end of the market where the risk of default is higher, in fairness who will want to invest in this market. The state may or will have to step in acting as a middleman to make up the shortfall, renting off LLs to rent to tenants.


    317 units is a lot. How else do people think rents will go down if not for supply and demand movements?


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    #1090
    redarmyblues
    Registered Users Posts: 972 ✭✭✭redarmyblues


    AngryLips wrote: »
    317 units is a lot. How else do people think rents will go down if not for supply and demand movements?

    8 K LLs left the RTB register in the 12 months to 01/20. 317 doesn't knock a lot of that number and many people think that The figure for this year will be much higher. Demand will have to drop faster than fall in supply for rents to fall.

    One potential benefit of LLs getting out is that LLs may be of mind to sell rather than leave vacant if the government was to provide funding to the LAs, the irony is that like any other potential customer they will want the premises unoccupied.


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    #1091
    AngryLips
    Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭AngryLips


    redarmyblues wrote: »
    8 K LLs left the RTB register in the 12 months to 01/20.


    Yea, and the number of tenancies grew by 3k in the following quarter. These changes from quarter to quarter are not indicative of anything unless there is a persistent trend. They are partly structural and cyclical so to dismiss 300+ properties coming to market is absurd. It is adding to the rental housing stock and solving the problem in a way that one-off landlords couldn't achieve on their own. I don't really understand how anyone can depict this as anything less than a win for the rental market unless you happen to be a landlord yourself. If there's any other solution, I'd love to hear it.


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    #1092
    redarmyblues
    Registered Users Posts: 972 ✭✭✭redarmyblues


    AngryLips wrote: »
    Yea, and the number of tenancies grew by 3k in the following quarter. These changes from quarter to quarter are not indicative of anything unless there is a persistent trend. They are partly structural and cyclical so to dismiss 300+ properties coming to market is absurd. It is adding to the rental housing stock and solving the problem in a way that one-off landlords couldn't achieve on their own. I don't really understand how anyone can depict this as anything less than a win for the rental market unless you happen to be a landlord yourself. If there's any other solution, I'd love to hear it.


    The figure I quoted is for a 12 month period and it's from the RTB, the RTB also gives a 18K net loss for the period 2017/18/19 period. The RTB are concerned about the lots of LLs and have asked for funding to survey the ex LLs to discover their reasons.


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    #1093
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    redarmyblues wrote: »
    The figure I quoted is for a 12 month period and it's from the RTB, the RTB also gives a 18K net loss for the period 2017/18/19 period. The RTB are concerned about the lots of LLs and have asked for funding to survey the ex LLs to discover their reasons.


    As if they dont know :)


    Funding to create a survey to make it look like its not a problem at all more like. Like the way they change how they report every year to hide the numbers leaving. HAve they run out of ways to prop up their stats?


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    #1094
    Beigepaint
    Registered Users Posts: 171 ✭✭Beigepaint


    Why is it a problem if landlords sell up and leave the market? That’s landlords choosing to forgo their property being paid for and profits every month as the hassle is too great.

    But why should this concern any tenant or greater society?


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    #1095
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,001 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Beigepaint wrote: »
    Why is it a problem if landlords sell up and leave the market? That’s landlords choosing to forgo their property being paid for and profits every month as the hassle is too great.

    But why should this concern any tenant or greater society?

    Fewer landlords due to existing ones leaving and fewer small investors buying = Reduced supply = Higher rents = Tenants unable to pay = Increase in homelessness. It’s been in the news a lot over the past couple of years.


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    #1096
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,805 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Dav010 wrote:
    Fewer landlords due to existing ones leaving and fewer small investors buying = Reduced supply = Higher rents = Tenants unable to pay = Increase in homelessness. It’s been in the news a lot over the past couple of years.


    So buildings disappear when landlords leave the market, that's interesting! But to be fair, being a landlord seems like a lot of hassle at the moment


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    #1097
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,001 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    So buildings disappear when landlords leave the market, that's interesting! But to be fair, being a landlord seems like a lot of hassle at the moment

    Buildings don’t disappear when landlords leave the rental market, but the building does tend to leave the rental market. Another poster quoted RTB stats which indicate reduced numbers of tenancies, so it seems that as landlords leave the market by selling or moving to short lets, they are not being replaced.

    In responce to the previous poster, that affects the tenant who is being evicted and lowers supply.


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    #1098
    redarmyblues
    Registered Users Posts: 972 ✭✭✭redarmyblues


    The trend in Ireland is moving toward institutionals which further reduces competition in general and lets at the lower end of the market. What is good for investors is not necessarily good for renters.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/state-s-biggest-landlord-records-30-rise-in-rental-income-1.4324509?mode=amp


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    #1099
    redarmyblues
    Registered Users Posts: 972 ✭✭✭redarmyblues


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    As if they dont know :)


    Funding to create a survey to make it look like its not a problem at all more like. Like the way they change how they report every year to hide the numbers leaving. HAve they run out of ways to prop up their stats?

    In fairness, they do seem concerned, without such a survey, SF can claim that the sole reason for the exodus is LLs finally escaping negative equity.


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    #1100
    timetogo1
    Registered Users Posts: 847 ✭✭✭timetogo1


    redarmyblues wrote: »
    In fairness, they do seem concerned, without such a survey, SF can claim that the sole reason for the exodus is LLs finally escaping negative equity.

    Wonder how many millions in funding they need for the survey and how many months it'll take.


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    #1101
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,001 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    redarmyblues wrote: »
    The trend in Ireland is moving toward institutionals which further reduces competition in general and lets at the lower end of the market. What is good for investors is not necessarily good for renters.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/state-s-biggest-landlord-records-30-rise-in-rental-income-1.4324509?mode=amp

    I doubt they are interested in investing in smaller towns or in one off units.


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    #1102
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    Dav010 wrote: »
    I doubt they are interested in investing in smaller towns or in one off units.

    Given the level of tax exempt fleecing they’ve been at in the last few years I think they’ll swoop anything which will further their pillaging goals. Irish people should work just to pay 50% of their income in rent and be happy about it. Our government definitely promote this


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    #1103
    Topgear on Dave
    Registered Users Posts: 4,520 ✭✭✭Topgear on Dave


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    Given the level of tax exempt fleecing they’ve been at in the last few years I think they’ll swoop anything which will further their pillaging goals.

    LOL, they own large blocks in cities.

    They are uninterested in semi-ds and 100 year old old terraced houses that are the typical rentals scattered about in small places like my home town.


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    #1104
    Topgear on Dave
    Registered Users Posts: 4,520 ✭✭✭Topgear on Dave


    Beigepaint wrote: »
    Why is it a problem if landlords sell up and leave the market? That’s landlords choosing to forgo their property being paid for and profits every month as the hassle is too great.

    But why should this concern any tenant or greater society?

    The landlords knocks on the tenants door, tells them hes selling and they have a certain time to GTFO.


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    #1105
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    Topgear on Dave wrote: »
    LOL, they own large blocks in cities.

    They are uninterested in semi-ds and 100 year old old terraced houses that are the typical rentals scattered about in small places like my home town.

    My point is only that they will look at anything where they can make a good fleecing. Poor quality sub-standard old buildings will be too costly to make massive cash hence why they favour the cities but don’t be surprised if they branch out in the years ahead


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    #1106
    AngryLips
    Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭AngryLips


    redarmyblues wrote: »
    The trend in Ireland is moving toward institutionals which further reduces competition in general and lets at the lower end of the market. What is good for investors is not necessarily good for renters.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/state-s-biggest-landlord-records-30-rise-in-rental-income-1.4324509?mode=amp


    So, in your view, what is the solution for increasing the supply in the housing market?


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    #1107
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,805 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    AngryLips wrote: »
    So, in your view, what is the solution for increasing the supply in the housing market?

    build


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    #1108
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,567 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    timetogo1 wrote: »
    Wonder how many millions in funding they need for the survey and how many months it'll take.
    If they get someone like Survation or NOP to do it the cost should be something like €25k.


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    #1109
    lcwill
    Registered Users Posts: 259 ✭✭lcwill


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    My point is only that they will look at anything where they can make a good fleecing. Poor quality sub-standard old buildings will be too costly to make massive cash hence why they favour the cities but don’t be surprised if they branch out in the years ahead

    You are right - entrance of institutional investors into the single family home rental market was one of the huge changes in the US after the financial crisis: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/02/single-family-landlords-wall-street/582394/


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    #1110
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,805 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    lcwill wrote: »
    You are right - entrance of institutional investors into the single family home rental market was one of the huge changes in the US after the financial crisis: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/02/single-family-landlords-wall-street/582394/

    ... and monoplisation of critical markets is always a good thing.....


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    #1111
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    My point is only that they will look at anything where they can make a good fleecing. Poor quality sub-standard old buildings will be too costly to make massive cash hence why they favour the cities but don’t be surprised if they branch out in the years ahead

    If they could get an entire estate of old buildings- that they could upgrade in one foul swoop- I think they'd go for it.

    The bigger issue for institutional investors more so than anything else- is scale.
    It makes no sense whatsoever to have individual units, or very small clusters of units- from a logistical and management perspective, these type units are simply too complex on a day to day basis for them to manage.

    What they want is scale- be it large housing estates (look at what has happened in Maynooth and Leixlip with Cairn for example)- or the multitude of MUDs around Dublin/Cork/Galway that have been proliferating.

    Driving small scale landlords of 1-2-3 units out of the market- drives ye 2-3-4 bed semi-d in urbanville out of the rental mix- and pushes prospective tenants into large scale developments where *everyone* is renting (look at how Cairn cancelled all the private sales in Maynooth and returned deposits to the annoyance of prospective buyers)- even looking at the leafy suburbs- such as Maynooth- is creating rental ghettos where there simply are no owner occupiers.

    This is what people are pushing for- whether they realise it or not- and the large scale institutional investors- are faceless entities who simply won't care about personal circumstances- unlike the private landlords- many of whom are approachable and willing to go the extra mile (notwithstanding the couple of complete stronzos).

    If you want large scale rental estates- you're going down that road.........


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