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27-04-2021, 09:54   #121
Supercell
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Thought my woodstove was done for the year, looks like i better get some more supplies in, oh well, do like a nice fire
Hard to see the atlantic roaring back with mild sw winds any time soon.
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27-04-2021, 12:09   #122
esposito
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Cool Mays are often good for warm July or August
And what about June? I think there is an element of truth to this theory. Don’t care if we have a cool May if it means we get a warm and sunny June, July and August. Asking for a lot there I know.
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27-04-2021, 14:09   #123
pauldry
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Well my theory is theres cool and warm spells all year in Ireland so if May uses the cool theres a couple of warmer periods left before the end of August.
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28-04-2021, 20:15   #124
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The cool and unsettled theme for the start of May is still there on the models. The ECM takes it another level though and brings a band of heavy rain in on May 3rd which turns wintry at times for some parts of the country. Conditions don't look favourable to me for wintry precip so I'm not sure why the chart is showing it, maybe evaporative cooling? After that, other southerly tracking lows bring further wet and windy weather.





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05-05-2021, 21:15   #125
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any updates here lads?
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05-05-2021, 21:26   #126
Oscar Bravo
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any updates here lads?
Looking like briefly milder over the weekend but wet and windy followed by showers then back into a cool showery set up next week once again.
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15-05-2021, 21:44   #127
Oneiric 3
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A long way off so a large pinch of kosher, but longer term outlooks favouring higher pressure to build close to Ireland during the last part of the month. Chart for day 10:

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17-05-2021, 20:44   #128
Meteorite58
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Fingers crossed








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18-05-2021, 10:52   #129
Chris_5339762
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12C for Cork at 2pm on the 27th May with all the hallmarks of a brutal wind off the sea?

Pass. Horrid.
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18-05-2021, 15:42   #130
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Nah, by the last week of May it will be 18 to 22c at least!
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19-05-2021, 18:30   #131
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Whilst I am still somewhat skeptical about the sudden evaporation of low heights away from Greenland, it does seem a trend now that we will get an anticyclone of sorts building somewhere close to the country allowing things to settle down and shower risk to diminish by this time next week.

The placement of the high pressure will be key to what kind of temperatures Ireland gets. Runs like the ECM 0z have it slowly ridging in from the west by Tuesday or Wednesday next week with a pretty cool airmass from the north embedded in that does not quickly go away but things slowly get milder by day to mid-teens in any sunshine whilst nights remain chilly in the low single figures.

Another example of where the placement and progression comes in is the GFS 12z that just ran which shows the high building in much quicker than the ECM and this also allows it to warm up much faster with heights lowering in the Bay of Biscay. This forces the wind into more of a southeasterly direction by late May and into early June bringing temperatures widely into the low 20s, maybe even touching mid-20s in sheltered midland or western spots. It does go a bit unstable in early June as pressure lowers due to the instability and go westerly by the end of the run but there is no sign of blocking around Greenland and the Azores high looks prone to sending ridges northward. I don't think this is a very likely option. I think a more middle ground of the very cool ECM 0z and warm GFS 12z is likely.

However, the emphasis is on high pressure building in from the west this time next week right now and although cool at first, as it sticks around longer in the sunshine and if it attempts to push a little eastward, things will naturally start warming up too. Nights will be generally on the relatively cool side.



Raw max temperatures on GFS 12z for first day of meteorological summer.

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20-05-2021, 09:57   #132
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MT doesn’t seem optimistic that the high will stay around that long. Do any models keep it?
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20-05-2021, 10:34   #133
sryanbruen
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MT doesn’t seem optimistic that the high will stay around that long. Do any models keep it?
His latest thoughts seem heavily based on the GFS 0z which compared to the 12z I showed yesterday doesn't get rid of the Greenland heights altogether and I held skepticism that they would just be evaporated like that. It has fallen more in line with ECM which continues to show a generally settled but very cool solution up until the end when it sends a shortwave into the Bay of Biscay which would go a similar way to that of the GFS 12z.

As ever, such long range thoughts rely on what the modelling show especially with conflicting signals like at the current moment when some favour a change in the European cool/blocked pattern that has dominated since the beginning of April and others that show a continuation with the blocking proving stubborn.
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20-05-2021, 18:44   #134
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A big GFS wobble with the 12z with a ninja low around Friday next week disrupting the influence of high pressure. It goes a bit nuts after with a reinvigoration of blocking in the high latitudes. Totally backwards from trends yesterday and past few days, yikes.
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22-05-2021, 12:53   #135
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ECM looking like increasing in temp from around midweek, slowly at first but decent temps around the weekend maybe up to the low 20's as HP builds nearby, showing slacker gradients so lighter winds, not all dry but after Tues a lot less for most areas it shows atm. Will see if it holds this trend.


GFS not as warm and settled so some uncertainty yet.



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