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10-05-2021, 07:28   #6001
M.T. Cranium
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Monday, 10 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal, but closer to 2 deg below during the daytime, as nights will be cloudy and therefore not overly cold.

-- Rainfalls will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal in parts of the inland south, southeast and east towards eastern Northern Ireland. Further west, especially near Atlantic coasts, rainfalls will average about the same amount below average.

-- Sunshine will be limited to brief intervals and may be challenged to reach even half of the normal amount at this sunniest time of the year normally (July is equally sunny in the southeast, by statistics, but otherwise most of Ireland enjoys its highest daily averages in May, 5.5 to 6.5 hours, but in this coming week, 2 to 3 might be closer to the outcome). Winds will continue to drop off towards lighter wind speeds in general, with a southerly to easterly component for most of the week, turning southwest by next weekend.


FORECASTS


TODAY will be rather cloudy in general with outbreaks of light rain at first, turning heavier by afternoon around Cork and Waterford. This heavier rain with some embedded thunderstorms possible will spread gradually through the inland southeast and towards Kildare and Meath, probably avoiding the east coast with its 15-25 mm downpours. Elsewhere just spotty showers in the 2-5 mm range. Highs 12 to 16 C.

TONIGHT this rain will die off to scattered drizzle and mist, with overcast skies and lows 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY will see a similar pattern but this time the rain is more likely to stay near the south coast and move into Wexford eventually, with areas further north seeing perhaps small amounts or locally staying dry in a few places, with variable amounts of cloud, highs 11 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY yet another cycle of heavy showers and this one is most likely to affect the midlands into central Ulster, as the very last remnants of the spinning and decaying low pressure system head into those regions from the Atlantic south of Cork, the results could be 10-20 mm rainfalls in central counties and smaller amounts on both east and west coast. Lows 6 to 8 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

THURSDAY some of that rain may stall over Ulster and begin to loop back around in a slow southward progression, making the inland western counties perhaps the wettest part of the country, with 5-10 mm rainfalls, once again, other regions likely to be closer to dry but somewhat damp conditions under widespread cloud. Lows 5 to 7 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

FRIDAY there won't be much break between this decaying low and a resumption of travelling weather systems in a southwesterly flow, but some places could get longer dry spells and sunny breaks with a few showers in the mix, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

SATURDAY will be showery with 10-15 mm rainfall potential and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with showers and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY 17th will be overcast with rain that may become rather heavy into Monday night and early Tuesday, temperatures steady around 12-15 C.

The longer term guidance, while less reliable, indicates more of these Atlantic frontal rainfalls at intervals of two or three days with another strong one shown for Thursday 20th, and more beyond that with no obvious end in sight to this new pattern of unsettled southwest flow, temperatures rather cool especially for daytime highs with all the cloud.

My local weather is not a lot different, mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the region, no measurable amounts of rain at my location on Sunday, highs 12 to 15 C.

At least any concerns about drought developing should be a closed chapter now. I could see things going in the opposite direction with too much soil moisture for ideal growing conditions, a combination of the rainfall and lack of evaporation under cloudy skies.
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11-05-2021, 07:36   #6002
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Tuesday, 11 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 May, 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values (more so with daytime highs than overnight lows)
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal in the south, near normal in central counties, Leinster and Ulster, and locally about 25 to 50 per cent below normal in parts of Connacht.
-- Sunshine will average only about half the normal amount, and winds will continue mainly rather light, occasionally moderate by the weekend.


FORECASTS

TODAY will see another outbreak of heavy showers and local thunderstorms, some producing hail, over the inland southwest but this time they seem more likely to remain in place, moving only very gradually into parts of the southeast by later in the day. Some parts of Connacht and Ulster may have a generally dry day, with a few brighter spells. Leinster will see variable amounts of cloud and isolated showers. Highs for all regions close to 14 C. About 15-25 mm rainfall potential in counties of west Munster, 5-15 mm east Munster into south Leinster.

TONIGHT will bring a gradual end to the showers in the south and some clear intervals with rather cold overnight lows as a result (2-7 C).

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY the weather pattern will be relatively stagnant with similar outcomes each day, mostly cloudy skies and scattered outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms, some with hail. On the average most places can expect to see 5-10 mm rainfalls each day but this could be locally as high as 15-20 mm. Highs each day will be around 14 C, overnight lows generally around 5 C.

By SATURDAY an approaching Atlantic frontal system will bring intervals of rain, and it will remain showery on SUNDAY with highs both days around 14 C. Rainfalls of about 10-20 mm are likely over the weekend. By MONDAY there could be outbreaks of heavier rain as this next system does roughly the same as the last one, grinding to a halt near Ireland for several days. The rest of NEXT WEEK then looks unsettled and similar to this week. Longer term guidance begins to show a bit more variation in temperature with warmer air sometimes getting involved although not dominating, so that by the fourth week of May there could be some days reaching highs closer to 20 C.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a few breaks of blue sky, unfortunately the sun did not manage to find them as they were a bit too low to the horizon, but rain was mostly confined to higher slopes nearby and was turning to virga overhead here. It remained quite chilly without much sunshine at about 15 C.
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12-05-2021, 07:53   #6003
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Wednesday, 12 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal, a blend of days being 1-2 below and nights near or slightly above normal.
-- Rainfalls will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, with parts of the northwest possibly closer to average.
-- Sunshine will average about 50 to 75 per cent of normal values but amounts will be variable from place to place as slow moving cloud systems compete with dry slots offering considerable sunshine. The midlands may see more sunshine than other regions.
-- Wind speeds will be generally rather light to moderate.


FORECASTS

TODAY some showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over Munster and these will slowly move further east and then northeast, to cover much of south Leinster by afternoon. A separate area of heavy showers has emerged from Scotland into northern Ulster and this will track south into other parts of Ulster and then Connacht during the afternoon. A few places could escape both systems and remain dry. Any morning sunshine will likely fade behind increasing cloud. 10 to 20 mm rainfalls are possible with these disturbances, and some thunderstorms could produce hail. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will see a clearing trend again with showers more isolated, lows 1 to 4 C.

THURSDAY will have new outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms, the central counties seem most at risk for heavier amounts. A slight northerly breeze will feel a bit cooler than these past few days, highs 10 to 14 C.

FRIDAY will have variable amounts of cloud and outbreaks of showery rain, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and showery outbreaks of rain with lows near 7 C and highs around 14 C.

SUNDAY will bring cloudy skies with a few breaks, and heavy showers, isolated thunderstorms, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

MONDAY will be overcast with rain becoming heavy at times, lows near 8 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

The outlook for next week is for this unsettled weather regime to continue with further pulses of heavy rainfall likely towards Thursday 20th and the following weekend. Any improvements later in the month may be rather faint.

My general outlook for summer is fairly simple, this unsettled and rather cool pattern seems likely to persist into parts of June and there could be slow improvement through late June and July with a good chance for the situation to reverse to warm and dry weather at times in late July and parts of August. So the key word there is improving, but at the same time the rather localized nature of the disturbed weather the past few days points to the difficulty of establishing anything much more than a general trend, specific locations could vary in all time scales as we saw yesterday where some enjoyed a lot of sunshine.
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13-05-2021, 07:37   #6004
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Thursday, 13 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 May 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values (which by now would be 15-17 C daytime highs and 5-7 C overnight lows). The greater part of this deficit will be in the daytime readings.
-- Rainfall will gradually add up to near normal amounts in many places, or about 20-25 mm in total, but a few parts of the inland north could see more.
-- Sunshine will be infrequent and it will take some luck to get even up to half the usual amount of 6 hours a day.
-- Wind speeds will be generally rather light but will increase to moderate at times this weekend.


FORECASTS


TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, these mostly in the west. Although showers will be less frequent in most areas, Ulster and parts of north Leinster could see more persistent rainfalls of 5-10 mm. Elsewhere, trace to 2 mm amounts seem more likely. Rather cool with highs 10 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated in the north, lows 2 to 5 C.

FRIDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine with scattered outbreaks of showery light rain, becoming a steady light rain by evening in west Munster. Cool with highs only 10 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional rain, only about 5 mm is expected and some brighter intervals could develop by afternoon. Highs 11 to 15 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks and occasional showers, again about 5 mm expected, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with occasional showers, breezy at times (westerly 40-60 km/hr) with highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with just isolated showers, highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring increasing cloud and rain late in the day, lasting into THURSDAY. Highs both days about 15 C.

By FRIDAY and the weekend of 22nd-23rd, quite cool in northerly breezes, isolated showers, highs 12 to 15 C and also quite chilly at night, even a slight risk of frosts returning by late weekend into Monday 24th.

From there to end of May, somewhat warmer in stages, with some possibility that the weather pattern will return to somewhat more normal temperatures for late May.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast but quite warm with a high near 19 C, and rain began around early evening with perhaps 2-3 mm accumulation to midnight.
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14-05-2021, 07:57   #6005
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Friday, 14 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 May, 2021

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25 per cent above.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Wind speeds will be light to moderate, and wind directions turning more northerly at times.


FORECASTS

TODAY will have some morning sunny breaks, most prevalent in west Munster and parts of Connacht. Cloud will increase around mid-day with overcast skies in most places by afternoon. Some outbreaks of showery rain, more widespread in the north, 3 to 5 mm amounts expected. Rain will spread into west Munster by late afternoon or evening from the west. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, 5 to 10 mm expected. Lows 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will have widespread showers with a few brighter intervals developing by afternoon, isolated thunderstorms possible in the midlands. Highs 13 to 16 C.

SUNDAY will have some outbreaks of light rain followed by variable cloud and showers or patchy drizzle, turning a bit cooler in light northerly winds, lows 5 to 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will bring variable cloud and a few showers, cool, lows 4 to 6 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY look similar but with some chance of longer sunny spells developing in a few places, temperatures falling slightly further at night mostly, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY then look partly cloudy and cool with lows -1 to +2 C with local frosts returning, and highs around 13 C.

The OUTLOOK is for warmer weather to develop in the final week of May, with perhaps a return to normal or even slightly above normal temperatures at times (around 20 C).

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and pleasant with a high near 19 C.
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15-05-2021, 07:09   #6006
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Saturday, 15 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 May, 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in the north, to 50 per cent above normal in parts of the south.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal. Wind speeds generally light to moderate, may increase to moderately strong at times mid-week.


FORECASTS


TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, these more frequent in parts of west Munster, but expect rather changeable weather if it does clear up briefly as heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will form through the mid-day and afternoon hours. Further east and north, occasional outbreaks of showery light rain will continue but one or two heavier showers could develop there too. Rainfall amounts generally 7 to 15 mm. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will continue partly to mostly cloudy with showers, less widespread by midnight, lows 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY will see another cycle of showers and thunderstorms developing in mostly cloudy skies, highs 12 to 15 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, cool and breezy, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

TUESDAY will continue partly cloudy with showers, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

Around WEDNESDAY or possibly WEDNESDAY NIGHT into THURSDAY morning, an interval of heavier rain is likely as an Atlantic storm tracking near the south coast brings 10-20 mm rainfalls and easterly winds for a time, with temperatures steady around 10 to 13 C. Timing is a bit uncertain from different guidance but the event itself seems quite likely at some point in that time frame. Once it passes, a slightly cooler northerly flow will develop in its wake, and by later THURSDAY into FRIDAY, cool and breezy with passing showers, winds northerly 30-50 km/hr and highs only around 10 to 13 C. By the weekend, skies will be partly cloudy with longer clear intervals in this same cooler air mass which could bring back the risk of isolated patchy frosts again. Highs would then continue to be down from normal values around 11 to 15 C.

The promise of any warming in the final week has been somewhat downgraded as quite a large mass of colder air seems to be involved in this northerly outbreak, warmer conditions attempt to replace that from time to time with limited success so there could continue to be somewhat cooler than average temperatures most days in the final week of May with further frontal disturbances from time to time, although in a rather variable pattern with some dry days in the mix. Highs would most likely recover a bit to the 14 to 17 C range.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with a high near 21 C.
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16-05-2021, 07:40   #6007
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Sunday, 16 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 May, 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal.
-- Winds will remain fairly light to moderate until Wednesday night but then could become strong for much of Thursday before abating.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, with showers and isolated thunderstorms by mid-day and afternoon, rainfalls in the range of 5 to 10 mm for most places, and highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with fewer showers, cool with lows 3 to 7 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, some longer dry spells and sunny breaks could develop and highs will be in the 13 to 15 C range.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring some morning dry spells and limited sunshine then increasing cloud, rain sweeping in from the Atlantic by late in the day as winds increase rapidly. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

THURSDAY will be windy and wet as an unusually strong Atlantic low hits the west coast and then weakens to drift across the southern half of the country. Northern regions will have very cool temperatures, easterly winds 50 to 80 km/hr and 20-30 mm rainfalls with temperatures steady 8 to 10 C. Southern regions will get into somewhat milder air with spells of heavy rain, possible thunderstorms, and gale force southwest winds in coastal areas 60 to 100 km/hr. These winds may cause some disruption and minor damage to trees. Later in the day the storm will be less intense but showery weather will continue and winds will become northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 8 C and highs 12 to 14 C for the south.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and cool with passing showers, lows near 6 C and highs 12 to 15 C. Northwest winds will continue for a while before a southwest flow resumes.

The OUTLOOK is rather uncertain, model runs keep changing considerably from one time to the next, and in the past few tries we have seen continued cool and unsettled, warmer and drier, and now a mixture, so the best idea here is to expect a bit of everything in the final week of May, perhaps some partial relief from the cool temperatures but not as certain to escape the cloud and rain.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and warm with a high near 25 C.
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17-05-2021, 06:24   #6008
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Monday, 17 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 May, 2021

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 per cent above normal values.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal.
-- Winds will remain rather light except for an interval of stronger winds expected Thursday possibly lasting into Friday.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with some increase in cloud by mid-day and afternoon, isolated showers at first, then more widespread showers developing, some becoming heavy with thunder and hail. Rainfalls quite variable from place to place, but should average about 5 mm. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear at times with showers ending, lows 2 to 5 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers, more concentrated in Munster and Connacht. Highs 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers developing, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy at times, with occasional rain, winds at least 50-80 km/hr from the southwest except for some parts of Ulster and north Connacht which could see easterly winds. There has been some uncertainty introduced into timing of this system, and it has affected most guidance at different times in the past day, so we're not too sure whether this unsettled spell will persist all through Friday as well, or come to a more rapid conclusion; the faster the low comes through, the stronger the wind gusts are likely to be. So the forecasts for Thursday and Friday are based on a blend of the different possible speeds. For Thursday would expect about 10 mm of rain, possibly as much as 20 mm locally, and highs reaching 14 to 17 C in the south, staying cooler further north around 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY will most likely be showery and breezy, but could remain very unsettled if the low takes that long to move through Ireland. Winds are likely to be around 40 to 70 km/hr from west to northwest, but this could moderate sooner if the low turns out to be faster moving. Temperatures quite likely to be cool, 12 to 15 C.

The OUTLOOK is also uncertain with different suggestions about what might happen once this low does move into the Baltic regions by the weekend. Some guidance shows another rather strong low developing and moving towards the northwest regions of Ireland by about Saturday. Other guidance has a more settled outcome. Eventually most guidance does allow for more average late May weather conditions to develop which should mean that some time during the fourth week temperatures will increase at least slowly and could reach 17 to 20 C by later in the week.

As to the uncertainty on the Thursday low pressure area, that should begin to come into better focus later today and I would expect the next forecast to have a more definite timetable and track for this low.

My local weather was sunny and very warm on Sunday, highs reaching 27 C. We have one more day like that and then will be seeing much cooler and wet weather setting in here as a cold front moves through Monday night.
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18-05-2021, 07:21   #6009
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Tuesday, 18 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 May, 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal in the inland north.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Rather light winds until Thursday then strong winds gradually abating to moderate on Friday, generally moderate wind speeds from then to Monday.


FORECASTS


TODAY will be partly cloudy with just a few widely scattered showers at first, but a somewhat more organized band of showers can be expected by afternoon through the midlands, moving east to reach the east coast by evening. This will bring about 3-5 mm rainfalls to most places. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will bring an end to the showers for a while, and partly cloudy to clear skies will develop again, lows in the 2 to 5 C range.

WEDNESDAY will have some brighter intervals in the morning to mid-day hours, then increasing cloud, just isolated showers mostly in parts of west Munster and northern counties. Winds generally light southerly but increasing by evening to southerly 40-70 km/hr. Highs 12 to 15 C.

OVERNIGHT into THURSDAY periods of rain and strong southwest winds developing, 50 to 80 km/hr, variable cloud with passing showers by mid-day and afternoon, highs in the south 14 to 17 C, but the north will stay in somewhat cooler air and winds will turn more to an easterly direction as low pressure arrives on the west coast by late in the day, leading to a steady rain in the north (10-20 mm amounts generally in all regions).

FRIDAY this disturbance should be steadily moving away into Britain leaving behind a moderate west to northwest flow (40 to 70 km/hr) with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers, cool with temperatures steady around 11 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cool with outbreaks of showery rain at times, winds westerly at about 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will be quite cool as winds turn more northerly, and temperatures could be only around 12 to 14 C for highs, with occasional showers.

The OUTLOOK is for drier weather to set in later next week, still unclear whether there will be an accompanying warmer temperature trend or just more sunshine making it perhaps feel a bit warmer even if temperatures don't necessarily come up much. There are some guidance maps suggesting a bit of an easterly flow with this stronger high pressure area, if so that will perhaps lead to an east-west difference of several degrees (14 to 19 C) with the west warmer.

My local weather stayed sunny most of the day with a rapid increase in cloud by evening, and showers just off to our west marking a cold front, gusty south winds during the day and very warm temperatures near 26 C. It will turn a lot colder overnight here and there's some chance of seeing snow mixing in with the cold rain we're expecting, certainly snow will return to local hilltops that have just lost their snow cover in this warm spell.
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19-05-2021, 06:55   #6010
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Wednesday, 19 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 May 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal, to 25% above normal in parts of the inland north.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Wind speeds will become moderate tonight and strong at times on Thursday, then back to moderate for most of the period Friday to Monday, somewhat lighter again after that.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with just a few isolated showers; cloud will begin to increase from the west this afternoon. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, winds southerly 40 to 70 km/hr becoming quite blustery near the south and west coasts. Lows 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will be breezy to windy at times, and wet with intervals of rain, breaking to showers across the south but staying more like a constant light to moderate rain in parts of the north. With low pressure tracking in towards Galway Bay, most of Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster will have southeast winds backing to northeast during the night, and 10-20 mm of rain, highs only 12 to 14 C. The south will have moderate to strong southwest winds, veering westerly by evening, and also 10-20 mm rain, highs 14 to 17 C. Winds near the south coast could reach gale force (70-110 km/hr).

FRIDAY will see gradual clearing during the morning and sunny intervals most of the day, with bands of showers likely to develop in moderate west to northwest winds. Lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C. Winds west-northwest at about 50 to 80 km/hr.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional light rain, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional rain, breezy and cool, lows near 6 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

MONDAY will have variable amounts of cloud and some showers, cool with lows near 5 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

Most of next week is likely to remain rather cool, but there is at least some chance of longer dry spells developing as high pressure begins to build to the north. In a light northeast wind flow, the west might begin to see temperatures returning to near average at times (17-19 C) but the east will be cooled by the Irish Sea in this wind pattern.

My local weather turned sharply colder and there were passing showers of hail and snow pellets, with temperatures around 9 C between the showers, somewhat colder when there was precipitation. Quite strong wind gusts at times from the west to northwest but it has calmed down this evening.
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20-05-2021, 07:30   #6011
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Thursday, 20 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



Blog format returns today, the trends are unfolding as expected and basically the same trends as we've seen most of this month will continue for a few more days, followed by a drier trend next week.

An Atlantic low pressure system that would not be out of place in November has been moving steadily towards the west coast. The centre of this low will make a landfall in Galway later this afternoon and then will cross the central counties to emerge into the Irish Sea around Dundalk late tonight.

If you are located near this track, including Galway, most of the midlands and Dublin, expect winds to become more moderate later today when the low is closer, and in some cases there may be a brief calm interval with the low overhead (that more likely in Meath than Dublin). Further north, east winds will continue and will remain in the range of 50 to 80 km/hr. Rain will be steadier further north and more showery in nature further south, but eventually most places will get similar totals of about 20 mm (30-50 mm localized maximum rainfalls could occur over higher terrain especially in Kerry and west Cork).

It will be quite rough off the south coast with winds of 80-120 km/hr, and some of these gusts will reach at least outer headlands if not a little further inland at times in the south. Around Dublin, wind gusts of 70-90 km/hr seem likely for much of the day before that lull begins around midnight. The south coast winds will be south to southwest for most of the day, veering to westerly then northwesterly overnight. The Atlantic coast will also be quite windy although closer proximity to the low centre probably means somewhat more moderate speeds for Clare and south Galway. In some places winds will begin to veer from southeast to southwest later this morning and further north they will back from southeast to northeast, depending on which side of the low track you are located.

Temperatures will be in the 13-15 C range most of the day in the south, could peak a bit higher anywhere that the sun pokes through for any length of time. Along the track of the low would expect cloud to be persistent and temperatures steady 12-13 C. Further north it may be a few degrees cooler in the east winds.

By tonight, the low will be over Leinster and then by morning near the Isle of Man, and this will promote a gradual turn of winds in all regions to northwest, or northerly in east Ulster. These winds will be fairly strong in the range of 60 to 90 km/hr. There will only be small additional amounts of rainfall in this phase of the event. The overnight lows will be around 8 to 10 C.

By FRIDAY the skies will be partially clearing with bands of showers likely in continued blustery northwest winds of 50 to 80 km/hr, temperatures will only recover a few degrees to about 12 to 14 C, and some sunny breaks will be mixed in with passing showers in some places.

Then on SATURDAY, winds will turn back to the south-southwest ahead of another Atlantic low, this one of more modest intensity, but still quite strong for this time of year. Rain will spread in during the day and it will be rather cool with highs only around 13 to 15 C. Rain will be heavy at times overnight into SUNDAY morning and there could be another 10 to 20 mm of rain in places. SUNDAY will become partly cloudy to overcast with winds west-southwest at about 40-70 km/hr, passing showers or outbreaks of light rain, and highs near 13 C. MONDAY will see the dying remnants of this low drifting across Connacht and Ulster, so it will remain unsettled and mostly cloudy with temperatures still quite depressed at around 12 or 13 C.

From about TUESDAY on, there will be a welcome change in the weather, not any large-scale warmup because high pressure is going to stay a bit too far to the west, keeping a slight northeasterly flow in place. That will probably lead to lower temperatures in Leinster and east Ulster than other regions, so would expect several days with highs of about 14 C in the east, 18-20 C in the west responding to longer sunny breaks. There could also be some patchy cloud in the vicinity of the Irish Sea in this otherwise dry spell. Parts of Britain will benefit too, but they will also be somewhat closer to a source of weak low pressure areas that could form over the North Sea into Belgium and Holland, spreading cloud into the southeast and even some rain at times, but that may avoid Ireland either totally or mostly during the latter portions of the week.

Rather than any scenario of a long gradual warming trend that could happen with stalled out high pressure, it looks more like the high will depart for the central Atlantic Ocean in early June and open things back up to unsettled northwesterly flow which cannot be any warmer than average at best (and will likely be a few degrees cooler).

In the central Atlantic now, a low is forming and heading west-southwest towards Bermuda where it could briefly become the first named tropical storm of 2021. Further west, high pressure is stationary over the east coast of the U.S. so the golf event there (PGA Championship) will enjoy some fine settled weather all weekend.

My local weather continued rather cold, with clear skies and a slight frost at dawn, then a steady buildup of cloud ending up with mixed showers of rain and hail by afternoon, highs only around 12 C.
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21-05-2021, 07:53   #6012
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Friday, 21 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 May, 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values (now at around 18 C for max, 8 C for min).
-- Rainfall will average about 75 per cent of normal, overnight Saturday-Sunday the heaviest this coming week.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal, a blend of 50 per cent to Monday, then 100-125 per cent.
-- Winds will gradually drop back to moderate levels later today, and remain there most of the time.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and some further outbreaks of rain in gusty northwest to north winds of 50 to 80 km/hr. There may be some improvements by this afternoon in western counties at least. Highs only reaching about 12-14 C and some higher areas closer to 10 C. About 3-5 mm further rainfalls likely.

TONIGHT will see some partial clearing with only isolated showers, quite cold for this time of year, lows 1 to 4 C.

SATURDAY will have variable amounts of cloud at first, then overcast skies by afternoon, less windy and backing to a southerly direction by mid-day or afternoon, highs 12 to 15 C. SATURDAY NIGHT will become rather windy for a time with heavy showers developing, 10-15 mm rain expected by Sunday morning with temperatures steady in the range of 6 to 9 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and passing showers, some heavy with thunder and hail. A further 5-10 mm rain likely. Highs 12 to 15 C.

MONDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional light rain, cool, lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with northerly breezes, cool, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with more generous sunshine than most days recently, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 14 to 18 C.

THURSDAY may be somewhat more cloudy as a weak disturbance passes, scattered showers but not much accumulation from them, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

The further outlook is a bit uncertain but most guidance has a dry theme, some dispute about wind directions which would influence what part of the country gets warmer temperatures that seem to be inevitable for the end of the month (starting to recover to near normal values by the final weekend and Monday 31st). One model that has been doing well recently shows the warmth being from a westerly flow which would favour Leinster, other guidance is sticking to that earlier theme of an easterly wind developing as they have high pressure further north, and that would favour Connacht and west Munster. In any case, it should be an improved weather pattern late in the month, but any hope of that being prolonged and lasting into June needs to be set aside for a while as we may get a bit of a reload of the current pattern in early June, hopefully it will be a weaker and less sustained version with an earlier exit to warmer and drier conditions.

My local weather was rather chilly with passing light showers and evidence of snow falling above 1500 metres (yesterday it was at our doorsteps almost coming down to 1100 metres). The high was about 12 C. However, it wasn't very breezy so we found it tolerable for golfing, with just a few spits of rain that didn't accumulate.

That first named storm of the year could "pop" any time now according to the NHC, it is located about 300 miles east-northeast of Bermuda and heading in their direction. I hear that the Greek letters are being retired from use which is a shame because I was looking forward to Omega but instead they will just keep on with new names if they run out of old ones. Another active season is being predicted.
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22-05-2021, 08:13   #6013
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Saturday, 22 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 May 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.
-- Light to moderate winds will prevail with a few stronger gusts likely late tonight.


FORECASTS


TODAY will have some sunny intervals to start, with a gradual increase in cloud by mid-day and becoming fully overcast this afternoon. Some light rain could develop near Atlantic coasts late afternoon into early evening. Light winds for the first half of the day then a moderate southerly breeze of 30 to 50 km/hr. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will become rather windy with squally showers or outbreaks of moderate rain bringing 5-10 mm by morning. Winds south to southwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 7 C.

SUNDAY will see the band of heavy showers moving off to the east by late morning, followed by variable cloud and more showers developing, chance of a thunderstorm with hail in some parts of the midlands and Leinster. Highs around 14 C. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr.

MONDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and occasional showers, quite cool with lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated although continuing to be widespread in east Ulster and north Leinster during the morning. Lows near 6 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and a bit warmer, lows near 6 C and highs 16 to 18 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY look rather cloudy with the chance of some light showers at times, lows near 7 C and highs around 17 C.

By next weekend (29-30 May) and into Monday 31st, fairly settled and just a touch warmer again with highs possibly close to 20 C well inland, 16 to 18 C near coasts.

Unfortunately there are signs that it will turn more unsettled again in early June but temperatures are currently looking moderate (15 to 18 C on average) which is a bit below June averages but not by a large amount.

They have yet to name the developing tropical storm now close to Bermuda but may do so at any moment as it looks to have reached that status; another candidate being watched in the Gulf of Mexico is running out of time to acquire tropical characteristics but is spreading heavy rainfalls into southeast Texas anyway. My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and just a bit warmer than the past few days with a high near 16 C.
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23-05-2021, 07:46   #6014
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Sunday, 23 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 May, 2021

-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg below normal but the trend will be rising and will reach near normal by end of the week.
-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, much of that expected today so the trend after today will be towards drier conditions with some showers on a few days (Monday, Friday looking most likely).
-- Sunshine will average near normal amounts with an improving trend.
-- Winds generally in the light to moderate range, after some blustery conditions at first today.


FORECASTS

TODAY will start out quite blustery with squally showers likely this morning, 5 to 10 mm rainfalls within an hour or two as the front passes, then partly cloudy with scattered showers redeveloping this afternoon, some isolated thunderstorms with hail. Winds veering to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr but some higher gusts with the front now into the midlands and expected in Leinster by 0930-1030h. Highs around 14 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with a few showers, lows near 7 C.

MONDAY will bring intervals of cloud and sun, and passing showers, probably more frequent in east Ulster and north Leinster where it may rain rather heavily around mid-day and in the afternoon. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy with isolated showers, and by afternoon will become a bit warmer with lows near 6 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY will have partly cloudy to sunny skies, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY will be sunny at first, then increasing cloud, leading to some showers by the overnight hours, lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C.

FRIDAY will start out rather cloudy with showers, then will become partly cloudy, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

The outlook for the end of the month (Sat 29th to Mon 31st) is for a briefly warmer spell with highs closer to 20 C, rather breezy at times, then back to more unsettled and somewhat cooler temperatures by early June.

They named that first storm (Ana) and it's rather weak and now drifting away from Bermuda, should die out within two days or so. My local weather was partly cloudy most of the day and it warmed up to near 20 C, then we had some virga showers that turned to actual rain for a few minutes around sunset, with rainbows appearing against dark clouds and rain or hail streaks off to the east in the evening.
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24-05-2021, 07:15   #6015
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Monday, 24 May, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland



TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 May, 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal values with a rising trend, balancing a start at around 3 deg below normal with a finish where several days are a little above average.
-- Rainfall will vary from 25% or less in Ulster, to 75% of normal in parts of Munster.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.
-- Wind speeds will be generally moderate at times but mostly light.


FORECASTS


TODAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, probably longer bright spells further north as there will be more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms across Munster and south Leinster. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm will be typical there, but trace to 5 mm further north. Rather cool, highs only 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy in most areas, with light rain at times across the south, lows near 7 C south to around 3-5 C in Ulster.

TUESDAY will be rather cloudy with some areas of rain lingering to at least mid-day in Munster and south Leinster, but a clearing trend will develop by late afternoon and evening there, with longer sunny intervals all day further north. Highs 12 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY will be generally dry with partly cloudy skies, isolated showers most likely in the southwest, with lows of 4 to 7 C and highs of 13 to 17 C.

THURSDAY will start out partly cloudy and pleasant in the east and north, overcast in the south and west where outbreaks of light rain will begin during the morning hours and become somewhat heavier by afternoon and evening. This rain may reach the east and north by late afternoon or evening. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

FRIDAY will see gradual clearing from the west, lows near 10 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

SATURDAY to MONDAY (29th to 31st) will be reasonably warm with Monday looking like it may exceed 21 C, after two days around 19 C or so. This will be a partly cloudy interval with some generous sunny intervals, and only small chances for showers.

Into early June, a warm, humid southeast flow will develop and spread rain into Ireland at times from that direction, and highs will be in the 17 to 21 C range. This may lead to outbreaks of heavy and thundery rain within a few days.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a high near 15 C. It wasn't warm enough to be warm and it wasn't cold enough to be cold.
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