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Rainfall/Drought Watch 2020

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    BrianD3 wrote: »
    Is it possible to get daily data/updates/estimates on soil moisture deficits? The only place I've seen these figures quoted is on Sunday's farming forecast on RTE. I presume that SMD is a complex enough thing and affected not only by rainfall, but also temperature, wind, humidity etc.

    The reason I ask is, I have lawns to cut at my properties and this is apparently non essential travel. Grass growth has been very slow in April presumably due to the soil moisture deficit so from my POV I hope this continues. And yes, I realise that this is a selfish hope and farmers will be adversely affected if their grass growth is restricted by dry soils.

    Met Eireann have a few SMD maps (along with their 'farming commentary') at the bottom of this page here:

    https://www.met.ie/forecasts/farming#agri-graphs

    You'll probably have to zoom in though to read any of those map values.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    What's the lowest SMD on record?

    Was it that dry Summer a couple of years ago or 1976?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Looking at those maps it's a wonder they have a notion whats happening in 95% of Munster.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Oh it rained just there bringing the gauge up to 26mm......since March 18th!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,100 ✭✭✭highdef


    Technically this is dual post as I have just posted the same in the Spring discussion thread however I forgot about this thread and my message would be more suitable here so here we go again. Mods, please feel free to remove my duplicate post in the Spring discussion thread.

    I see that soil moisture deficits have now exceeded 50mm in the Dublin region and are close to exceeding that in many eastern parts. That is pretty extreme for the time of year. With little rain in the forecast for the foreseeable future combined with the fact that we are still 6 weeks from the summer solstice (so therefore the potential for the sun to dry the ground out at ever faster rates increases for another 6 weeks, based on sun strength alone) means that we are at a very high risk of entering a severe drought this summer should current rainfall trends continue.

    Thankfully, by typing out this very message I have probably jinxed the whole summer and it will be a complete washout


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    highdef wrote: »
    Technically this is dual post as I have just posted the same in the Spring discussion thread however I forgot about this thread and my message would be more suitable here so here we go again. Mods, please feel free to remove my duplicate post in the Spring discussion thread.

    I see that soil moisture deficits have now exceeded 50mm in the Dublin region and are close to exceeding that in many eastern parts. That is pretty extreme for the time of year. With little rain in the forecast for the foreseeable future combined with the fact that we are still 6 weeks from the summer solstice (so therefore the potential for the sun to dry the ground out at ever faster rates increases for another 6 weeks, based on sun strength alone) means that we are at a very high risk of entering a severe drought this summer should current rainfall trends continue.

    Thankfully, by typing out this very message I have probably jinxed the whole summer and it will be a complete washout

    Most certainly we are going through a fairly extended dry spell now, but it is interesting to note that regarding the running 3 month (91 days) and annual (365 days) percentage totals, we are still way in excess, with values of 135% and 123% respectively. If there is any truth to the idea that nature will always balance itself out, then a extended dry spell running into the Summer months is more than overdue to address this imbalance.

    But as we also know, nature rarely works that cleanly.

    New Moon



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    The next week is basically dry, even last night turned out to be very modest as far as I can see.

    As for balancing out if you look at the historical records on met.ie, the station nearest me (Johnstown Castle) pretty much ends up with a 1100mm of rain every year but of course that's missing the point - it's the unreliable and extreme peaks and troughs that do the damage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,001 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    Posted this in the spring thread but more relevant here:


    The one "wet day" in the forecast returned a total of 1.5mm here in Roscommon.
    Only 43mm here since Paddys Day (and 30mm of that fell last Thursday)

    Unusually, its been the west and north-west thats been the driest since March.

    Anyone farming on light soils is going to need all those leftover 2019 bales!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Neddyusa wrote: »
    Posted this in the spring thread but more relevant here:


    The one "wet day" in the forecast returned a total of 1.5mm here in Roscommon.
    Only 43mm here since Paddys Day (and 30mm of that fell last Thursday)

    Unusually, its been the west and north-west thats been the driest since March.

    Anyone farming on light soils is going to need all those leftover 2019 bales!

    I think the Dublin region is driest of all NeddyUSA, but considering that this notable dry spell (perhaps not for the far south) is occurring in what is already, on average, the driest period of the year, really shows just what little rainfall there has been over the bulk of the country over the last 6 weeks or so.

    Chances of some more showers over the next few days but looks like more dry weather for much of next week, added with a stiff wind at times that will only enhance evaporation rates even further.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yeah we got 2.5mm out of yesterdays rain and 5.5mm when roscommon had 30mm. Still a few showers over weekend. Things not drastic here yet but at lake you can walk into pier as no water like before. In February the pier was almost under water. How things change. Grass a bit yellow too


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,668 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    37.4mm here in cork city so far this month, similar to last year with 41mm. Looks to be the highest in the country. Very interesting seeing the differences across the country let alone the county because Moore park only recorded 15.7mm!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,477 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    37.4mm here in cork city so far this month, similar to last year with 41mm. Looks to be the highest in the country. Very interesting seeing the differences across the country let alone the country because Moore park only recorded 15.7mm!

    And I recorded 8.2mm so far this month about 25 miles further north than moorepark


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,721 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Since St Patrick's day, just 37.8mm here in north Kilkenny. 0.6mm for this month.
    I miss the rain :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Since april 1st,44.4mm recorded at my station in Arklow
    3mm of that since may 1st


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,822 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    what are reservoir levels like? I assume consumption of water is down?

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Haven't got any stats locally but Finner, my nearest station, has only 26.6mm since March 18th

    Doesn't look like much more than the odd shower or drizzle for the foreseeable either and models have been consistently overplaying what ends up falling


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,334 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    I've had 2mm in North Kerry this, month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Met Eireann rainfall maps for the last 7 days.

    Total 7 day rainfall:
    KbczmbH.png

    Expressed as percentage for the period:
    g3arYfW.png

    As is the recent trend, the south of the country is wetter than the north, while the east remains driest of all.

    Outlook for the coming working week is for more generally dry weather. A few showers here and there cannot be ruled out at times, especially for the northern third of the country, but they are unlikely be of much intrinsic value to growers and gardeners. EPS forecast totals for the next 5 days:

    FndS30U.png

    A chance maybe of something more substantial towards or over next weekend maybe as high pressure declines a little, but if the longer term forecasts are to be believed, then then we could be looking at a continuation of these drier than normal conditions for the 2 weeks at least. Longer term forecast rainfall anomaly up to May 25th for example.

    nkwRUIj.png

    Best eyed with much sceptism at this stage however.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,334 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    Had 20 mm yesterday in an hour.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yellow grass getting more widespread now. Especially when cut.

    Noticed that when walking over the yellow grass while social distancing from people it seemed to retain the heat from Saturday. Maybe that's why it was 13c yesterday and not 7 or 8c like they predicted.

    Frost last night has killed more grass too.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Had 20 mm yesterday in an hour.

    Shows the nature of random showers. None of the daily reporting Met Eireann stations (25 in total) picked up on them, except for the odd 0.2mm here and there.

    Met reports from the 9th, the day those showers broke out:

    sSQV2Wb.png

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,477 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Yeah I recorded 15 mm in the space of 25 minutes in one of those showers


  • Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭millb


    silverharp wrote: »
    what are reservoir levels like? I assume consumption of water is down?

    The MD of Irish Water was on Pat Kenny NT saying domestic consumption was up and IW plant is maxed. Reservoirs were ok, although not ideal for the time of year..

    Texters were saying many folks washing cars, roofs and driveways with power-hoses.

    MD was worried (re greater Dublin area) as business will soon need loads more water to flush out systems and tanks and clean for resumption of work over next period.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Irish Water spoke locally of Drought conditions in North Sligo and next 2 weeks look mainly dry too with maybe 10mm of rain


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,334 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Shows the nature of random showers. None of the daily reporting Met Eireann stations (25 in total) picked up on them, except for the odd 0.2mm here and there.

    Met reports from the 9th, the day those showers broke out:

    sSQV2Wb.png

    Whats interesting is they friends the far side of the mountain saw the storm and didn't get any of it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Growth becoming very restricted on mowed lawns here now. Dont cut your grass if you like growth. Long grass appears to be holding more moisture and greenness.

    My 10mm prediction for next 2 weeks here that started a day or two ago has yielded 0.5mm so far. Whoopee do. Could 1976 style Summer be in sight?

    Cue floods.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Models firming up on the chance of some rain now over the weekend, with the N.W generally seeing the greater totals. Running 24hr totals for between now and Monday morning:

    UcTwisP.gif

    Nothing really substantial however, but might just be enough to dampen the ground at little in the most arid regions.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,094 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    pauldry wrote: »
    Growth becoming very restricted on mowed lawns here now. Dont cut your grass if you like growth. Long grass appears to be holding more moisture and greenness.

    My 10mm prediction for next 2 weeks here that started a day or two ago has yielded 0.5mm so far. Whoopee do. Could 1976 style Summer be in sight?

    Cue floods.

    Grass roots are related to the plant above ground, so 8f you have a foot of grass you'll have a deep and large root ball, if you cut it back to an inch approx, 90% of the root will die back.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,001 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Models firming up on the chance of some rain now over the weekend, with the N.W generally seeing the greater totals. Running 24hr totals for between now and Monday morning:

    UcTwisP.gif

    Nothing really substantial however, but might just be enough to dampen the ground at little in the most arid regions.

    Nothing in those charts showing any sort of relief for parched ground though, only Connemara and Donegal even reaching 10mm.
    I've noticed - after we got our measly 1.5mm from the edge of one of those thunderstorms last Saturday - how the ground dried ridiculously fast.
    I'm taking puddles on concrete to completely dry ground in minutes. Never seen anything like it in this country. The east wind and low humidity seems to be pretty entrenched now.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Just 24.9mm for April in South Laois, with nearly half of that coming on one day the fifth. Just 0.2mm in May.


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