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Royal Ascot, day 2 - Wednesday

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  • 18-06-2019 8:05pm
    #1
    supremenovice
    Registered Users Posts: 976 ✭✭✭


    I'm going for Nate the Great in the 1405. Third to Anthony van Dyck in the Lingfield Derby trial is great form and ran well as a 2yo here last year.


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    #2
    Peintre Celebre
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    Chilean at 33s in the hunt cup my only bet. Not too badly handicapped he beat the French Derby winner last season. Off the track eight months but may be primed for this and interesting


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    #3
    The Tetrarch
    Registered Users Posts: 2,092 ✭✭✭The Tetrarch


    14:30 Kimari 8.00
    15:05 no bet
    15:40 Waldgeist 6.00
    16:20 Pretty Baby 10.00
    17:00 Cardsharp 167.36
    17:35 Better The Devil 34.21


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    #4
    torres9kop
    Registered Users Posts: 384 ✭✭torres9kop


    Lads who is the best tipster on here? need a few for tomorrow please


  • Options
    #5
    Earendil
    Registered Users Posts: 809 ✭✭✭Earendil


    Sonofgoat. The man is like the feckin Oracle.


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    #6
    bludcrazetiger
    Registered Users Posts: 73 ✭✭bludcrazetiger


    just the 2 for tomorrow (so far)

    5pm - I fancy circus couture to run well tomorrow, wide open race, good chance as any imo. career low mark of 102, ran well in last years race of a 4lb higher mark finishing 3rd, visor on, worth a chance at the price of 33/1 ew (sky bet 7 places) 0.5 pt ew

    16.20 I can fly 9/2 (1 pt)


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    #7
    madmoose
    Registered Users Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭madmoose


    Need Waldgeist and Kimari antepost but it doesn’t look easy.

    Added the following in the Hunt Cup, all ew 6 or 7 places

    Chief Ironside 25/1
    Zhui Feng 33/1
    Afaak 25/1


  • Options
    #8
    PhuckHugh22
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭PhuckHugh22


    Queen Mary: Theory of Time 14/1(1 point win)
    Queens Vase: Norway @3/1(1 point win)
    Prince of Wales: Crystal Ocean @4/1(1 point win)
    Duke of Cambridge: Veracious @10/1(2 points each way 1/5 4 places)
    Royal Hunt Cup: Petrus @33/1(1 point each way 1/5 7 places), Mitchum Swagger @40/1(.5 points each way 1/5 6 places, Zwayan @40/1(.5 points each way 1/5 7 places)

    *There are better prices and terms available for some of these but these are the prices and terms I could get on at so not going to put up something I can't get.
    **Adding a bet in the Queen Mary

    Staked: 11 points


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    #9
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Few small arrows today:
    2.30: Raffle Prize
    3.05: Pythion
    4.20: Anna Nerium
    5.00: Breden/So Beloved

    Also be tempted to bet Sea Of Class against Magical if she were to hit 4/1.


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    #10
    Chancer3001
    Registered Users Posts: 5,480 ✭✭✭Chancer3001


    2.30 - multiply by eight 50s

    3.05 Norway

    3.40 sea of class is friendless in the market but hoping it comes good

    4.20 threading

    5.00 affak

    5.35 temple of heaven


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    #11
    The Mig
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    Mostly Harmless wrote: »
    Few small arrows today:
    2.30: Raffle Prize
    3.05: Pythion
    4.20: Anna Nerium
    5.00: Breden/So Beloved

    Also be tempted to bet Sea Of Class against Magical if she were to hit 4/1.
    Will Hill are 4s MH


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    #12
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    The Mig wrote: »
    Will Hill are 4s MH
    Ta, am on now. Obvious unknown regarding level of preparedness and bigger targets later in year but seems massive given level of form from last year.


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    #13
    Scoundrel
    Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭Scoundrel


    14.30 Ickworth

    15.05 Eminent authority

    15.40 Sea of Class

    16.20 Pretty Baby


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    #14
    mirwillbeback
    Registered Users Posts: 2,003 ✭✭✭mirwillbeback


    Earendil wrote: »
    Sonofgoat. The man is like the feckin Oracle.

    I'd wager he has the best recent record on this forum.

    Yet most seemed to idolise a guy who was not even a boards member providing 219 losers out of 239 bets.

    Funny that.


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    #15
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    mirwillbeback wrote: »
    I'd wager he has the best recent record on this forum.

    Yet most seemed to idolise a guy who was not even a boards member providing 219 losers out of 239 bets.

    Funny that.
    If only he kept a P/L we could answer this question instead of "wagering"


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    #16
    realdanbreen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    torres9kop wrote: »
    Lads who is the best tipster on here? need a few for tomorrow please

    No such thing really as a best tipster. Plenty of bad tipsters alright but unless a guy has the ability to talk to a horse or better still understand what a horse might be thinking or saying then he is just doing what the rest of us do, going to meetings, studying form and weighing up the odds. As I have said before the bookies-who have invested €millions in software to figure the odds- will usually have the race priced correctly. So your 33/1 shot has exactly that , a 1 in 33 chance of winning.


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    #17
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    realdanbreen wrote: »
    No such thing really as a best tipster. Plenty of bad tipsters alright but unless a guy has the ability to talk to a horse or better still understand what a horse might be thinking or saying then he is just doing what the rest of us do, going to meetings, studying form and weighing up the odds. As I have said before the bookies-who have invested €millions in software to figure the odds- will usually have the race priced correctly. So your 33/1 shot has exactly that , a 1 in 33 chance of winning.
    Hugh Taylor (who has shown massive profits for many years in a row) must be able to read horses minds so, explains it perfectly


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    #18
    PhuckHugh22
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭PhuckHugh22


    realdanbreen wrote: »
    No such thing really as a best tipster. Plenty of bad tipsters alright but unless a guy has the ability to talk to a horse or better still understand what a horse might be thinking or saying then he is just doing what the rest of us do, going to meetings, studying form and weighing up the odds. As I have said before the bookies-who have invested €millions in software to figure the odds- will usually have the race priced correctly. So your 33/1 shot has exactly that , a 1 in 33 chance of winning.

    If 33/1 shots are winning 1 in 33 races. The bookies should probably invest more money in that software.


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    #19
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Western Australia for me. Ground a worry but i'll take me chances at 5/1.

    And I Can Fly also at 9/2.

    May do a small double also for the craic!


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    #20
    realdanbreen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    Mostly Harmless wrote: »
    Hugh Taylor (who has shown massive profits for many years in a row) must be able to read horses minds so, explains it perfectly


    But surely most professional punters make a profit year on year. That doesn't mean the punter or Hugh Taylor for that matter will tip the winner of the 4.05 in Hamilton today.


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    #21
    realdanbreen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    PhuckHugh22 wrote: »
    If 33/1 shots are winning 1 in 33 races. The bookies should probably invest more money in that software.

    Not sure if you understand the concept of being 33/1 and winning one in every 33 races .


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    #22
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    realdanbreen wrote: »
    But surely most professional punters make a profit year on year. That doesn't mean the punter or Hugh Taylor for that matter will tip the winner of the 4.05 in Hamilton today.
    Tipping is about the long term game, anyone can pick the winner of one race with a bit of luck but not everybody can turn a profit over a long period of time.
    realdanbreen wrote: »
    Not sure if you understand the concept of being 33/1 and winning one in every 33 races .
    And how does the bookie make a profit in this scenario?


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    #23
    PhuckHugh22
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭PhuckHugh22


    realdanbreen wrote: »
    Not sure if you understand the concept of being 33/1 and winning one in every 33 races .

    Oh i understand it just fine.
    Firstly a 33/1 shot should in theory win once every 34 races not 1 in every 33.

    Second, no bookie in their right mind is pricing up a horse who they think is winning 1 in 33 races at 33/1. It would be more like a 25-28/1.


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    #24
    realdanbreen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    Mostly Harmless wrote: »
    Tipping is about the long term game, anyone can pick the winner of one race with a bit of luck but not everybody can turn a profit over a long period of time.


    And how does the bookie make a profit in this scenario?

    Sorry, my apologies I was going too fast.. Now if I have 4 apples and you have 3 apples then.............


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    #25
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Not derailing this any further. Have a good day's punting all :)


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    #26
    PhuckHugh22
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭PhuckHugh22


    Indeed.

    Going update for anyone needing it.

    Straight Course: Good to Soft
    Round Course: Soft, Good to Soft in places


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    #27
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Any ideas (guesses) as to where the draw bias will be in the Hunt Cup? Gone with the old one low/one high approach but feel like low is likely preferable - Queen Mary should clarify a bit.


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    #28
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    Yesterday was massively frustrating. I will probably never find my bollix again. It is gone forever. Congrats to connections of Circus Maximus, really annoying though as I was told to back it for the Derby...…

    2.30 No idea - Fivers on Divine Spirit, Isabeau , Flaiming Princess and Liberty Beach
    3.05 Harpo Marx ew
    3.40 Sea of Class - obvious ground worries but 7/2 would be annoying if she wins.
    4.20 Pretty Baby
    5.00 Seniority , Roc Angel
    5.40 I have no clue - Wheels on Fire at 66/1 looks value.

    Enjoy all and happy punting.


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    #29
    PhuckHugh22
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭PhuckHugh22


    Mostly Harmless wrote: »
    Any ideas (guesses) as to where the draw bias will be in the Hunt Cup? Gone with the old one low/one high approach but feel like low is likely preferable - Queen Mary should clarify a bit.

    Hard to tell on evidence we have so far. Looking at the Queen Anne, King Stand and Coventry from yesterday the winners came down the middle to far side. Granted it is not really like for like and there is going to be an extra 10 runners to those races.


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    #30
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    Earendil wrote: »
    Sonofgoat. The man is like the feckin Oracle.

    I presume your taking the piss. Even a degenerate Gannet like me can back winners at even money. The guy is a coin flipper, anyone can do that.

    The most money you will ever lose is backing and laying jollys, believe.


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    #31
    madmoose
    Registered Users Posts: 1,022 ✭✭✭madmoose


    Mostly Harmless wrote: »
    Any ideas (guesses) as to where the draw bias will be in the Hunt Cup? Gone with the old one low/one high approach but feel like low is likely preferable - Queen Mary should clarify a bit.

    I was thinking Cardsharp should be out handy and is draw high next to Raising Sands so possible high draw bias stand side today?


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