Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
29-10-2019, 23:18   #46
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,367
Coming into the more reliable time frame for this weekend but a lot of uncertainty still at this stage . Complex areas of LP moving in near and over the country. There is a bit of a trend from the last few runs that most of the strongest winds might pass well to our S into France. But there is still very changeable charts being churned out, so the fine details wont be known for a few days yet. Looking wet at times at least, maybe heavy in places although there seems to be a trend that the heaviest rains will stay S of us. Looking a bit windy on coasts mainly for the moment. One chart from the UKMO could produce strong winds but too early to know for sure. Very strong Jet seems to be trending S of us which might help to bring very strong stormy winds into France around Sunday.

If the Jet moves more North along with the track of the LP then it could bring strong winds into Ireland.








Last edited by Meteorite58; 29-10-2019 at 23:43.
Meteorite58 is offline  
Advertisement
30-10-2019, 14:10   #47
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,367
Weekend forecast still evolving, latest ECM 06Z Rapid showing very windy now in Munster early hours of Sat and potentially very wet as it brings the system a bit further N. By no means certain but showing winds up to 120km/h on coasts and gusting up to 100km/h overland, also a wide area with 30 to 50mm in 24 hrs up to midnight Sat.
Meteorite58 is offline  
(4) thanks from:
30-10-2019, 20:22   #48
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,367
Well the ECM 12Z came out and eased off on those winds again keeping them more to the S and shifting the heaviest rain to Kerry and W Cork.

American models showing strong winds sweeping in from the W and across the country, gusting 80 to 90 km/h overland and keeping the highest rainfall totals to the Northern half of the country.

ICON similar to the ECM




ARPEGE showing windy on Atlantic coasts but bulk of strong winds staying offshore ( different alignment of LP's altogether to the others ).

MT mentions uncertainty with the complex pattern as those Met Eireann :

'The unsettled showery weather continues through the weekend with a wet and potentially windy day on Saturday with further spells of rain or showers on Sunday. It is expected there will be drier interludes also and it'll turn cold at night as skies clear with the possibility of frost.

There is a higher than usual level of uncertainty associated with the track of weather systems this weekend due to extensive, deep areas of low pressure active in mid Atlantic'.

Meteorite58 is offline  
(4) thanks from:
30-10-2019, 20:44   #49
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,367
Big difference between the UKMO and ECM on track and shape, UKMO would bring windiest weather into the Southern half of the country, nothing too excessive but windy nonetheless, showing huge rainfall totals to Sunday. So nothing clear as yet, potential for strong winds or a miss and the same with rainfall totals.







Last edited by Meteorite58; 30-10-2019 at 20:51.
Meteorite58 is offline  
30-10-2019, 21:55   #50
JanuarySnowstor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,872
18z gfs looks quite potent for Saturday.
Could well deserve it's own thread by tomorrow if trends continue
JanuarySnowstor is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Advertisement
03-11-2019, 19:52   #51
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,367
Interesting Weds as an occluded front and trough activity crosses Ireland under increasingly cold mid level and upper airs. Also looks like a negatively trough so will be watching for potential thunderstorm activity. Wouldn't be surprised to see hail showers and some wintry stuff on high ground especially towards evening and into Thurs morning . Could be windy along Atlantic coasts at times both Weds and for a time on Thurs depending on the track of those Lows and how they develop.












Last edited by Meteorite58; 03-11-2019 at 20:20. Reason: add a chart
Meteorite58 is offline  
07-11-2019, 00:15   #52
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,367
I think the latest model runs in general have upped the predicted rainfall totals a bit for tomorrow in the East . Hard one to forecast and pinpoint where gets the most rainfall as the areas of Low pressure pirouette sending a band of rain in over the East coast for much of the day. EURO 4 might be overdoing it a bit, a cross between the ECM and AROME perhaps.
















Meteorite58 is offline  
07-11-2019, 00:23   #53
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,367
Latest Rapid ECMWF/Global Euro HD showing between 20 and 25mm and possibly touching 30mm on some parts of the coast.





Meteorite58 is offline  
10-11-2019, 11:22   #54
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,367
Wet and windy frontal weather to sweep over the country tonight into early Monday morning.

Bit of sleet again in Northern counties.








Last edited by Meteorite58; 10-11-2019 at 11:28.
Meteorite58 is offline  
(3) thanks from:
Advertisement
10-11-2019, 11:45   #55
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,367
Models holding the set up of LP crossing the country in a cold air mass Weds into Thurs . Looks like a wet and breezy spell, possibly windy for a time more so on coasts and feeling very cold. Freezing levels will come down quite low possibly producing wintry precipitation, might see some form of snowfall on higher elevations . Marginal as usual especially coming from the NW but has the look of leaving areas slushy early Thurs morning. Evolving so all in the timing and taking lots of parameters into consideration but at present parts of the midlands, E and SE look like a general area that might see wintry precipitation.











Meteorite58 is offline  
(6) thanks from:
10-11-2019, 11:54   #56
JanuarySnowstor
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,872
Yes it does look wintry for the South on Wednesday evening. Certainly a high ground risk but perhaps a bit lower down also. It's marginal but with the sun getting ever weaker at this time of year we could get a surprise....
JanuarySnowstor is offline  
10-11-2019, 12:15   #57
pad199207
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 4,030
I doubt I’ll be waking up to 5-10cm of snow Thursday morning Meteorite lol
pad199207 is online now  
10-11-2019, 12:41   #58
Artane2002
Registered User
 
Artane2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,318
Wouldn't the onshore easterly breeze ruin the chance of wintry precipitation for a lot of people in the East? Don't forget the December 2017 slider.
Artane2002 is offline  
10-11-2019, 15:42   #59
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,367
Quote:
Originally Posted by pad199207 View Post
I doubt I’ll be waking up to 5-10cm of snow Thursday morning Meteorite lol

I doubt that much too Pad ( at this stage anyway ) but the ECM has been showing potential for a wintry spell mid week now for a number of runs and again on the 06Z Rapid it again shows from around mid day Weds into Thurs morning. I would imagine could get something like rain to sleet to possible snow later in the day and possibly back to sleet etc. As usual there could be a big difference over rises in the land and lower levels and over relatively short distances.

My limited understanding is that when you have a LP like this with such cold mid level and upper airs , that it can lower the freezing level quite a bit and as snow has shorter to fall it can land as snow, albeit possibly wet snow. So it can snow at slightly higher temperatures than normal. No doubt soundings will come into play soon and need for closer looking at the finer details but has the look of something wintry.

Either way a good opportunity to study if it does lead to accumulations or not and why.










Meteorite58 is offline  
10-11-2019, 18:28   #60
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 7,367
Models have upped the wind a bit for tonight but mostly just for coasts and to lesser extent coastal counties.





Meteorite58 is offline  
(6) thanks from:
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet