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22-09-2019, 16:01   #16
Meteorite58
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Models showing it increasingly wet in the SE /E next week with the ECM / ICON giving a more widespread 30 + mm .










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25-09-2019, 23:08   #17
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Jean Byrne after the news tonight mentioned potentially very wet conditions moving up over the country on Sat although a lot of uncertainty with track atm. ECM showing a LP tracking in from the SW / W and most of the rainfall crossing the Southern half of the country, any winds at this stage staying along and off the S coasts . ECM showing potentially dropping between 20 and 50mm in less than 24 hrs , most of the rain falling late afternoon / evening into the early hours of Monday it would seem.

To Note very high tides over the weekend.

Another LP crossing next Monday into Tues . ATM looking very wet in parts of the W.

ECM leading the way in rainfall totals in 24hrs







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25-09-2019, 23:09   #18
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26-09-2019, 20:10   #19
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Just keeping an eye on Saturdays expected heavy rainfall from a LP crossing the country . Not much change in the charts although ECM 0Z earlier took a lot of the heavy rainfall off the S coast but the 12Z has it back in over the South and SE again.

6hr precipitation



24 hr precipitation



Accumulated Total Precipitation

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26-09-2019, 20:14   #20
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Other models rainfall prdicions all showing heavy rain , GFS has a more Northerly track of the heaviest rain, European all quite similar now.

EURO 4

6hrs




UKMO

6hrs





GFS



ARPEGE



ICON

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26-09-2019, 21:35   #21
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No doubt it will be the 4th chart that will prevail
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30-09-2019, 17:15   #22
nacho libre
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It would be good to see a chart like this in two months time
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30-09-2019, 17:20   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nacho libre View Post


It would be good to see a chart like this in two months time
Or right now
Also good
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05-10-2019, 12:01   #24
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Storms over the Atlantic, staying well away from us but giving wet and breezy/ windy weather at times, more so along Atlantic coasts.









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06-10-2019, 08:54   #25
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Not sure where to put this. An interesting page listing the known issues/quirks with the ECM model (IFS). Other models have their own lists too. There is no such thing as the perfect model.

It's good to keep these things in the back of your mind.

https://confluence.ecmwf.int/plugins.../view/28328424
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06-10-2019, 11:35   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaoth Laidir View Post
Not sure where to put this. An interesting page listing the known issues/quirks with the ECM model (IFS). Other models have their own lists too. There is no such thing as the perfect model.

It's good to keep these things in the back of your mind.

https://confluence.ecmwf.int/plugins.../view/28328424
Interesting reading. Great to see the ongoing work in research and finding ways to identify and improve where the models under perform . Lot of these projects lasting 4 years , just shows the complexities involved.
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07-10-2019, 06:53   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaoth Laidir
It's good to keep these things in the back of your mind.

I've always liked that quote from economist Kate Raworth, 'all models are wrong, but some are useful'
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11-10-2019, 19:44   #28
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Looks like a few places could get a proper frost by tomorrow morning if the sky remains clear long enough. Remaining under a cool air mass for a number of days leading to cool nights.









Last edited by Meteorite58; 11-10-2019 at 19:49.
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13-10-2019, 11:17   #29
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Accumulated Rainfall totals up to late Monday night.








AROME just up until 19.00 looks quite heavy especially the S.



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13-10-2019, 19:14   #30
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Rapid ECM 12Z has brought back the rain a bit to about 22.00- 23.00 coming ashore in the SW, shows around 30 mm falling in a large part of Kerry by 10.00 and around 25mm for the rest of it . Rain spreads across the country over the course of the day.

Have the rain gauge's cleaned out





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