Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Charts ( up to T120 ) Summer to Winter 2018 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

1356789

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,477 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    km79 wrote: »
    I know
    Ye can have it
    Most parts of Connacht can do without an inch a day now
    Hopefully it moves to the South East !

    True send it down our way please!


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,460 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    km79 wrote: »
    Is it too soon to start a “will it ever stop raining again thread “



    Could ye start it instead of clogging up the Technical threads with chat?


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,129 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Is this still forecast ? Don’t see it mentioned by Met, Syran or YR.NO


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note: A reminder that this thread was set up following the request from posters that it would be good to have a thread for charts and model /technical discussion only. There are other threads for more generalized discussion and chit chat.

    Please use the right threads when posting.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS has delayed the rainfall this weekend but has increased the total accumulation see early Sat morning to Sun night.

    Will be interesting to see if the ECM follows suit.

    60-777UK_qup8.GIF


    102-777UK_gnb2.GIF


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z not showing the same amount of precipitation as the GFS over the weekend, still showing a decent amount predicted so far. ICON showing a big amount of rainfall for Sat especially the Northern half of the country.

    7m1J7HZ.png

    uIW9IMz.png


    iconeu_uk1-25-59-0_oth4.png

    iconeu_uk1-25-90-0_ari0.png


    I would not be surprised to see conditions coming close to or exceeding warning level criteria for rainfall over the weekend.


    ueayny7.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Tropical Storm Debby got a mention on the Weather Forecast tonight after the News. It will dissipate within about 30 hrs and become absorbed by the system approaching Ireland over the weekend. Although no longer a storm the warm mass of moist air will add to the rainfall amounts. Joanna Donnelly did not give an amount only to mention that Saturday could be very wet, but one could gather by the tone that there is some uncertainty but giving it a bit of caution at the same time.

    GjnxKZh.png


    bI2mEnC.png


    092IMwR.png




    581
    WTNT44 KNHC 082033
    TCDAT4

    Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
    500 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018

    Satellite images indicate that Debby's circulation is becoming
    elongated and the low-level center is on the northeastern edge of an
    area of moderate convection. A blend of the satellite intensity
    estimates, and data from an earlier ASCAT pass yields an intensity
    of 35 kt at this time. Debby is already moving over cooler waters,
    so additional weakening is anticipated, and the circulation should
    should open up into a trough on Thursday. In fact, this is the
    solution of the GFS and the ECMWF models.

    Satellite fixes indicate that Debby is moving toward the northeast
    or 040 degrees at 13 knots. The cyclone is well embedded within the
    southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and this pattern
    should continue to steer Debby northeastward with some increase in
    forward speed. The track models continue to be in pretty good
    agreement.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 08/2100Z 42.0N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 09/0600Z 43.5N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
    24H 09/1800Z 45.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    36H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Tropical Storm DEBBY

    gJGjJbq.gif

    g3kmBTy.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS and Icon showing a lot less rain on the latest runs. Models chopping and changing. GFS more in line with the 12Z ECM.

    Getting very mild and humid overnight Fri into Sat and mild if not warm on Sat.

    yC2qLUW.png

    q6M1MmG.png

    F2aGUk3.png

    pzbVuGW.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Much reduced rainfall predictions from the models for over the weekend.The LP for the most part stalling off the W coast of Ireland as it fills . Pressure over Europe initially doing a good job of blocking it as it dissipates .The SW of the UK ending up with the heaviest rain as the main Cold front trails up over it, if it were to come closer to Ireland then the E and SE could get a lot of rainfall but the models not showing that atm.

    tempresult_iuv3.gif


    75-777UK_rmo9.GIF

    arpegeuk-25-80-0_tqc8.png

    fkLYCq6.png

    0VVJr27.png

    wVJf9Ja.png



    SeL6KOM.gif


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Warm and sticky weekend with high humidity.

    RVgy5hJ.png

    N4uEQt6.png


    bYaWxVO.png

    j1uY0Ix.png

    Q2xCaDq.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The change in air mass coming up over the country on Sat accompanied with rainfall.

    tempresult_bbn9.gif

    tempresult_xcv9.gif

    nmmuk-25-39-0_mjz7.png

    Kgkoteb.png

    g9NYcTU.png

    FzN6Ayp.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Not much rainfall over the next 48 hours on the ECM 12z with the west of Britain (particularly south Wales) getting most of it. Southeast looks to be getting between 7-14mm.

    SMjU4xX.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Some warm weather showing up on the models for next Tues

    tempresult_muv0.gif

    0d0QQyc.png


    gc3hZ0t.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Next chance of more extensive rain coverage coming up from frontal bands on Weds by the looks of it.

    8BqVQbg.gif


    fyLZiwI.png


    ye6LqSO.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Present charts indicating some windy weather Weds and Thurs as fronts sweep through. ECM 0Z showing plenty of rainfall if this verifies ( Highest along Atlantic coastal counties especially the W and NW ) mostly from Weds and Thurs .

    q48mQDB.png


    9A2e10b.png

    77Zah49.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The W, NW and coastal SW catching some rain during Tuesday . Eastern counties looking mostly dry at this stage. The East may get some light rain or mist and drizzle early as the weak occluded and warm fronts break up and dissipate while heading E. Cloudy day for many. Best in the S and SE.

    Hv0hV8L.gif

    tempresult_sjn1.gif


    wbJ6LXj.png

    99u48LC.png

    38o6v1N.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 864 ✭✭✭Maidhci


    It appears that there is considerable uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts over the coming days - on Sunday for example, the forecast rainfall for Wednesday 15th, at my local station [Mace Head] was 29.9mm, this was showing approx. 3mm this morning and at the moment, it is showing 2mm. Hope this turns out to be the actual volume. Also a serious reduction in the forecast rainfall for Friday compared with Sunday's forecast, but some rain showing at the moment, currently forecasting 10mm. Very difficult to make any sense of this and equally difficult to plan some activities.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    It appears that there is considerable uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts over the coming days -

    I notice a sizeable downgrade in what the ECM was predicting for accumulated rainfall for the week coming. A lot less rainfall fell than was predicted for last weekend also but that was a very complex messy set up that all the models were struggling with.

    sryanbreun posted in the FI thread https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107778040&postcount=432 stating that the first two weeks in August were difficult weeks for the models. Don't know why this is . Probably best to remain skeptical for now until they get back on track. It seems to me that often during weather transitions from settled conditions to more changeable weather that the models can struggle for a while until they get use to the new patterns. Worth monitoring closely to see how they fare.

    Present rainfall accumulations up until Fri Night.


    arpegeuk-25-105-0_vhn2.png

    y19x197.png

    96-777UK_row2.GIF


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM has upgraded the Total Rainfall up until late Sunday with a spell of rain Sat night into Sun possible with some heavy rain in places perhaps. This spell of rain coming from an area of LP which could be the remnants of a a non tropical low forming which could acquire some subtropical characteristics as outlined by The NHC below. We had the remnants of Debby last weekend but that did not amount to anything but this seems to be moving along quicker which could carry it over Ireland. Worth watching to see if it develops into anything more significant . No winds of note with this, just a warm moist humid airmass .

    fH3xb8z.png

    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A non-tropical low appears to be forming to the east of the larger
    complex low pressure system centered several hundred miles south of
    Cape Race, Newfoundland. This new low could acquire some
    subtropical characteristics by Wednesday. However, after that time
    the low should be moving northeastward over colder waters and be
    absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    Forecaster Avila


    DgmsnCb.gif

    ggtkteM.png

    iKTLSBZ.png

    A27DFKI.png

    YLvX3u3.png


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    An indication of some warm and humid weather over the weekend but will need to watch for rainfall . Present ECM 12Z showing wet Sat evening and overnight into Sun morning with much of the rain clearing by early Sunday.

    LWT66b0.png

    4B2wl1N.png

    ZINaUWs.png


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    NHC
    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a low pressure
    system located about 750 miles south-southeast of Cape Race,
    Newfoundland has become better defined. In addition, the
    associated showers and thunderstorms are now well organized. If
    the current trends continue, the low will likely become a
    subtropical depression or subtropical storm overnight.
    Some
    additional development of the low is likely during the next day or
    two before it moves northeastward over colder water and merges with
    a frontal zone over the northern Atlantic by the end of the week or
    this weekend.


    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

    Forecaster Cangialosi


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    I'm keenly watching the forecasts for Sunday as I'm playing a two hour gig outdoors from 1PM to 3PM in Dun Laoghaire :D It's very uncertain as you say - for example, the GFS precip charts imply that there will be some drizzle during the afternoon, but Met Eireann's rainfall chart on their five-day forecast implies that there'll be no rain at all.

    Contrast:

    gfs-2-108.png?6

    And (2PM-8PM Sunday chart)

    web_irl_rainfall_2018081918.gif?h=1534330800000

    And finally yr.no:

    R7lU8gs.png

    It's one of those times I really wish the ECM generated precip charts like the GFS so we could compare. This is obviously symptomatic of the uncertainty ye have all alluded to over the last couple of days, but it's pretty unusual and fascinating to see so much divergence between models on a day which is (just about) within the reliable timeframe as opposed to FI.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,460 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    It's one of those times I really wish the ECM generated precip charts like the GFS so we could compare.


    You're using the 6hr chart from the GFS, which the ECM does have:


    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/166-w-529-n/precipitation-6h/20180819-1800z.html


    2ZQwQJt.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Now named as subtropical storm Ernesto.

    By the way hatrickpatrick, sorry I haven't been answering your question in the FI charts thread. I've been busy away working on my site, blog and Twitter.

    VzeSwBS.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,230 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Looks weak enough as it gets closer. Will probably dissipate / merge entirely with a regular Atlantic system before 15W.
    Still though, 45kt sustained is a decent storm. If it intensifies much will be one to keep a very close eye on.

    Is it just me or is this the second time since Ophelia that NHC have shown a reckonable storm forming in the Atlantic pointed directly at us, and I don't recall that ever happening before last year.
    CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z
    AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 45.9W

    FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.3N 45.3W
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.3N 43.5W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.6N 40.3W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 90NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.4N 35.2W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 52.3N 21.0W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Big upgrade now on the ECM 24 hrs total precipitation up to 13.00 Sun, most of which is currently projected to fall between 19.00 Sat and 10.00 Sun.

    Most of the rainfall over the Northern half of the country and catching parts of the SW coasts.

    JDmTc51.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A lot of rain to fall between now and Sunday . Need to keep an eye as this could increase depending on what is left over of Subtropical Storm Ernesto.

    mvcE7o0.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Windy day Fri along Atlantic coasts breezy overland , bit windy in the SW, S on Sat but nothing out of the ordinary on present runs.

    8SQHwwp.gif?1

    9ORysIn.png

    6yEGUj0.gif

    tempresult_joo9.gif


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    tempresult_ucl7.gif


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement